Let’s time travel back to December of 2016. Terry Ryan is well past his expiration date and finally gets the axe. Long overdue.

The Twins proceeded to hire Derek Falvey away from the Cleveland Guardians and Thad Levine away from the Texas Rangers, with the objective of building a “pitching pipeline” just like the one Falvey was a big part of building in Cleveland.

Since then, this team has a 399-351 record (0.532), winning two division titles and making the postseason three times. And just recently, that “pitching pipeline” started pumping. Some of those minor league arms have looked damn good. All of a sudden they are in first place.

Would you consider extending Falvey and Levine?

Not yet, but I lean towards yes.  I do like what we're starting to see from the minor league guys, particularly the pitching.  

But, I don't think their task is done yet.  We're really just starting to see their organizational changes taking shape and getting to the majors.  To me, that's key.  They were tasked with rebuilding the entire organization from the ground up.  That's not going to be a quick process, but I think we're starting to see the fruits of that now.  So, I want to see how those changes start to impact the big league club before actually pulling the trigger on an extension.

When does their current deal actually expire?

For me the measure of a good front office is if they routinely have talent coming up through the system.  Every front office will have good and bad FA signings, trades, and first round picks.  It is about the overall how is talent evaluated and developed.  You cannot make snap decisions on any single move or season.  

The FO has made some flop first round picks, but they have had some later picks that are moving up prospect lists, and most importantly on pitching.  They were in part brought in on the ability to develop pitching.  If you look we have a lot of now pitching depth, and each level has good pitching prospects.  None may be super high end looking to them, but are performing well. I am a fan of that.

I am not a fan of the power only first round guys that are not doing much.  However, that happens with the first round flops, all teams have them.  We still are getting good talent, and with pitching talent teams are always looking to bring in more pitching so having depth at that can fill in the misses at other positions.  

I would extend them as I like overall what I have seen.  Are they perfect, no.  Point me to a FO that never has a missed pick, bad trade, bad FA signing.  I am waiting. 

I would've said definitely not after last season  ...

 

Maybe Falvey but definitely not Levine. I am open about Falvey because finally we can see the fruitition of the pitching pipeline but need at least one who can evaluate our talent, see our need and go out & evaluate the talent out there and initiate the big trade not sit back and wait for the other FO come to you.

I want to see how the season plays out, but right now?  If I had to?  Yes, I would.

It's hard to say who I'd extend as I don't know their job duties. I know it's a very collaborative effort, but I don't know what the hard lines are or what they're each responsible for. They're always combined as 1 person basically (Falvine!) when we discuss them as fans, but is that how it should actually be for the Pohlads when they come to decision making? Whoever's responsible for the development systems they've put in place should have a place locked up moving forward as I think they've knocked that out of the park. Roster decisions have been a little more hit or miss. Not enough that I'd be looking to move on from them because of the decisions (fans act like 2021 was the norm for them and not the outlier), but it hasn't been as clear of a win as I see their development systems being.

Overall I'd extend them. I don't think they're perfect, but they've done quite well overall in their time here. 85-77 (coming off a 103 loss season), 78-84, 101-61, 36-24 (another 100 win pace), 73-89 (yikes), 26-16 is a pretty solid stretch.

Pitching: In 2016 the Twins had a 5.09 ERA which tied them with Arizona for worst in the league. In 2017 Falvine took over and here's the ERA and league ranking since: (bold seasons are when Rocco and Wes took over)
2017- 4.60 ERA (19th in baseball)
2018- 4.50 ERA (22nd)
2019- 4.18 ERA (9th best ERA in baseball, but the 307 HRs was the only reason they won, obviously)
2020- 3.58 ERA (4th)
2021- 4.83 ERA (26th, ouch)
2022- 3.41 ERA (8th, back on track!)
Looks to me like Rocco and Wes have been pretty solid at managing a pitching staff ?‍♂️

Hitting: In 2016 the Twins scored 722 runs which was good for 16th in baseball. They had a wRC+ of 95 which tied them for 18th in baseball. Since Falvine took over they've ranked as such: (bold seasons again when Rocco took over)
2017- 815 runs (7th in baseball), 103 wRC+ (6th in baseball)
2018- 738 runs (13th), 96 wRC+ (15th)
2019- 939 runs (2nd), 116 wRC+ (3rd)
2020- 269 runs (18th), 101 wRC+ (16th)
2021- 729 runs (15th), 101 wRC+ (11th)
2022- 183 runs (11th), 113 wRC+ (6th)
So hitting hasn't been as good (outside of 2019), but not terrible (interesting that they get so much heat for the pitching yet the hitting has been worse compared to the rest of the league).

To me a FO and manager/coaching staff that produce top 10 pitching staffs 75% of the time are worthy of keeping around for a while. Not sure what else you expect from a mid-market team. I think the 0-18 distorts a lot of opinions and then the pain and shock of 2021 haven't worn off yet. And, yes, winning in the playoffs is what matters, but dumping 0-18 all on them isn't reasonable. If you ignored that and just look at what they've done compared to the rest of the league during 5+ regular seasons I don't think there'd be any question about extending them.
 

They've instilled enough confidence through this offseason and early season that I'd extend them. I think I'll feel more confident in the decision in early November, though. 

2 hours ago, wsnydes said:

Not yet, but I lean towards yes.  I do like what we're starting to see from the minor league guys, particularly the pitching.  

But, I don't think their task is done yet.  We're really just starting to see their organizational changes taking shape and getting to the majors.  To me, that's key.  They were tasked with rebuilding the entire organization from the ground up.  That's not going to be a quick process, but I think we're starting to see the fruits of that now.  So, I want to see how those changes start to impact the big league club before actually pulling the trigger on an extension.

When does their current deal actually expire?

they signed a 5 year contract in 2019.

Let's see how this season pans out first. 

I find it interesting how many people are for someone else.  I think most of them are always thinking someone better may be out there.  That may not be the case, and a bad signing can set your organization back for years.  No way has this FO set us back.  Are we at where we all want, maybe not, but I have seen many FO guys make terrible moves and set teams back.  Once you have a solid foundation I say go with it, until it is broken.  You will have up and down years, but overacting to just make a change because of a down year or a couple of moves that did not work out will cause the team to fall apart.  Every time you change up FO you change up how teams want to build the organization.  That means the style and type of players you look for.  If you change that up too much there is no direction for the organization and you just spin in circles.  We are just seeing the players that were developed under this front office start to come up.  Give them some more time, because we have not been terrible overall and appear to be growing.   

I would gladly extend them both. They seem to work well together. I don't want the Twins front office to JUST be a stepping stone to get to the front offices of other teams.

No.

30 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

No.

How come?

You definitely extend.  They have outperformed by a wide margin of mid to small market teams.  I would say only the rays have done better.  The depth in the minor leagues is where they get the extension.  Every level was stacked until we started raiding AAA for the MLB.  The issue is that depth will begin to cause issues on the Rule V front.  That is a good problem to have.  There is nothing out there that would likely be better and has shown the relative consistency that they have.  We have ample bats and pitchers in the minor leagues to likely continue this success.  

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

They've instilled enough confidence through this offseason and early season that I'd extend them. I think I'll feel more confident in the decision in early November, though. 

I agree.  There's certainly no rush to do it.  If they were extended now, I wouldn't mind.  But it seems reasonable to do it during this upcoming offseason.  And if you're going to do it, you probably should do it before going into the last year of the deal.

25 minutes ago, alexthegreat said:

How come?

They've been a mixed bag at best. The Paddock trade was a disaster. I've heard that their reputation among other Execs is "meh" or worse.

When their best team had a chance to go for it in 2019, they choked and clung to their prospects. Let's see what they do this time. I have zero fear of another team stealing them away, so there's no reason to give them an extension. They can work on year-to-year contracts.

5 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

They've been a mixed bag at best. The Paddock trade was a disaster. I've heard that their reputation among other Execs is "meh" or worse.

When their best team had a chance to go for it in 2019, they choked and clung to their prospects. Let's see what they do this time. I have zero fear of another team stealing them away, so there's no reason to give them an extension. They can work on year-to-year contracts.

The Paddack trade wasn't a terrible idea, it just didn't work out (yet). If I could trade one year of a reliever for several of a young starter, I would do it.

Also, their reputation among other execs is "meh" or worse? I'd like to see a source.

Yes

If I can only choose yes or no, I'd say yes. But right now, today, I'd say most likely, but I want to see more of the season play out...including how they handle this draft and the milb talent...and then make my final decision at the end of the year.

As stated above, there will ALWAYS be trades and FA signings and 1st round picks that don't turn out for ALL teams. You don't judge a FO on those, unless there are a bunch. And there haven't been. This FO was tasked, literally, with re-building the entire organization from drafting and changes in development to coaching and approach from rookie ball all the way up to the parent club. They have done that. They've done it so well they've lost coaches and various personnel and a few players to other teams. When you're being poached, it means you're doing well and the other teams are noticing. And despite a complete re-build, the parent club has been winning and making the playoffs. And that's from day 1, with the exception of 2021.

I have expressed my own opinions for things I question or don't like, which is my/our right as fans. But I have been a fan and believer of just about everything they've done thus far. Again, with some contrary thoughts/opinions. But the results have been good, and the fruits of their labors, to build a sustainable, competitive organization is/has been taking shape, with a lot of young talent arriving and continuing to work themselves up through the system.

My only reason for saying to wait until the end of the season is I want to see how this team does the rest of the way, how their previous decisions play out, and what they do to finish up the season with potential moves. Me personally, I would be disappointed if they made ZERO moves to augment a competitive team that might show a need. But on the other hand, with the way the entire organization appears to be moving forward toward good seasons to come, I'd be disappointed if they went "too far in" with moves for 2022 and potentially sacrificed tomorrow. 

So I'm a yes, but I'd just wait until 2022 is done to make the final decision. One thing I've noticed from years of watching sports at the professional and amateur level, when something is going good and looks like it can continue to grow, you stick with it. Constant change for perfection sake is an illusion. You put good people in place, and when you have them, you keep them. 

If they make the playoffs three out of four years, how can you not? I'm not 100%, but they are doing better than I thought this year for sure. 

8 hours ago, howeda7 said:

They've been a mixed bag at best. The Paddock trade was a disaster. I've heard that their reputation among other Execs is "meh" or worse.

When their best team had a chance to go for it in 2019, they choked and clung to their prospects. Let's see what they do this time. I have zero fear of another team stealing them away, so there's no reason to give them an extension. They can work on year-to-year contracts.

And the Joe Ryan trade looks like highway robbery... and that's putting it lightly. 

I want to see how attendance comes out over the course of the season, as well, before making such a decision.

Absolutely. They've gradually been building up this franchise towards perennial relevance. I like that, and I'd like to see more of it.