Ichiro HOF?

[Nicholas Mueller]

As I woke up at 4 in the morning to watch the Mariners and A's, I couldn't stop thinking to myself, is Ichiro bound for the hall of fame? Over his 11 year career, he's averaged 200+ hits a year with 8 home runs. So his total hits are 2428, 95 home runs, and 423 stolen bases. Now, obviously at these statistics, people might not want to include him in the Hall. Eventually, my decision was that if Ichiro had made his MLB debut at an earlier age than 27, he would have had a greater chance of making it. Now, what are your thoughts on him, is he bound for the Hall?

[Bark's Lounge]

There are some who will disagree, but he's a shoe-in MLB HOFer. As of now he doesn't have 3,000 hits (578 to go), but his stats in 11 seasons of MLB play are astronomically great. I know it is speculation, but I think he will make it to 3,000. He will be 39 this year, but in my opinion last year was an abberration and he will hit .300+ this year and a few more to follow. He still has the quicks and he seems to be the kind of player who will age very well. He is a different kind of animal, nobody in baseball is quite like him and I don't expect to see another of his ilk. Last year's Seattle Mariners squad was offensively inept and sometimes bad hitting can be contagious. He would not be the first great player to suffer a bad year on a bad offensive club. I understand the warning signs. Ichiro WILL bounce back. Plus, as far as HOF consideration, don't discount his super stardom in Japan and how that has positively effected MLB popularity in that country. That too, will also be a factor.

[gunnarthor]

I don't see how it doesn't get in at this point. Even if he retired today, I think the voters would put him in on the first ballot.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

I think he'll end up with 2,800 or so MLB hits. For me, that puts him in.

It'll be curious, though, because I don't think he'll go in on the first ballot. Some of those voters -- the old codgers -- won't even consider anything he did in Japan, even the fact that it resulted in a later MLB debut.

I bet he'll go in the second or third year of eligibility, though.

[powrwrap]

Now, what are your thoughts on him, is he bound for the Hall?

He's a shoo-in.

[Bark's Lounge]

I think he'll end up with 2,800 or so MLB hits. For me, that puts him in.

It'll be curious, though, because I don't think he'll go in on the first ballot. Some of those voters -- the old codgers -- won't even consider anything he did in Japan, even the fact that it resulted in a later MLB debut.

I bet he'll go in the second or third year of eligibility, though.

Mr. Twins Fans From Afar. You are right about the fact that his overseas stats won't count with the "Old Codgers" (nice old school term!). Maybe they shouldn't? I think Ichiro will be a first ballot HOFer, but 2nd or 3rd ballot is not too bad. I am still perplexed by the 3rd ballot induction of Ryne Sandberg... I am not a Cub's Fan, but that one still unsettles me to this day. Oh well, it all worked out.

[Seth Stohs]

Absolutely, first ballot.

[Thrylos]

I'd like to see how he ranks among other outfielders who are in the Hall before I form an opinion. I think that the only comparable style outfielder (high OBP, lower SLG) is Tony Gwynn and his numbers are much better than Ichiro's. And, yes, position matters. Were he a second baseman, it would had been easier, but as an outfielder? Not sure really...

[danoo]

Ichiro will go in the Hall but I dont think he will get in his first I think 2nd year on the ballot

[powrwrap]

I'd like to see how he ranks among other outfielders who are in the Hall before I form an opinion. I think that the only comparable style outfielder (high OBP, lower SLG) is Tony Gwynn and his numbers are much better than Ichiro's. And, yes, position matters. Were he a second baseman, it would had been easier, but as an outfielder? Not sure really...

Rickey Henderson says hi.

Lou Brock says hi.

[Brandon]

Ty Cobb says hi too

[Ultima Ratio]

1st ballot, no doubt.

[Bark's Lounge]

Ichiro: Let's not forget his outstanding defense and his cannon arm. That has to come into play. A .326 BA and .370 OBP is more than HOF good. A .338 BA for Tony Gwynn is the stuff dreams are made of. No one can reasonably dispute his place in the HOF. He also revolutionized the art of hitting by studying his mechanical flaws from game day video... many have followed his lead. Both of these guys are GREAT artists of hitting!

[Bark's Lounge]

Richie Ashburn should probably say hello also.

[CDog]

I feel like I'm answering the question, "Will the sun come up tomorrow?" But yes, he's going in. Thrylos98, I feel like you're answering the question, "Should he go in?" Which may be a more debatable subject, I guess, but to answer that question, too...Yes.

 

Obviously very different situations, and I agree that the old codgers will consider them very differently even though, in effect, they really aren't, but Puckett only played 12 seasons.

[lecroy24fan]

I don't have faith in anyone getting in first ballot anymore.

[Zach]

Ichiro seems to have opened up a new door in baseball with the Japan market--and that is still getting wider. His bridging the two styles of play so well cant be put into numbers (though I'm sure some sabermetrics mind has already done it) and for me, thats enough to put him in first ballot. There is a snobbish, or maybe purist-minded prejudice against the Japan baseball world from our American perspective--and certainly it isnt so hostile as the blatant racism-feuled prejudice of the Negro leauges, but Ichiro's part in connecting Japan and American baseball cannot be overstated in my mind.

[Bark's Lounge]

Ichiro seems to have opened up a new door in baseball with the Japan market--and that is still getting wider. His bridging the two styles of play so well cant be put into numbers (though I'm sure some sabermetrics mind has already done it) and for me, thats enough to put him in first ballot. There is a snobbish, or maybe purist-minded prejudice against the Japan baseball world from our American perspective--and certainly it isnt so hostile as the blatant racism-feuled prejudice of the Negro leauges, but Ichiro's part in connecting Japan and American baseball cannot be overstated in my mind.

Success Stories: Ichiro, H. Matsui, Nomo, Sasaki & Kuroda. Zach, sabremetrics will probably not be able to define Ichiro as we see he should be defined, but he is great none-the-less. In my mind, heart, and moral system I feel racism in the game of baseball has been, for the most part erradicated. Let us not forget about Jackie Robinson's struggles for equality, against racism and the hardships he had to endure. He opened the door for many and paid a great price for his sacrifice. When I hear the name of Jackie Robinson mentioned I do not equate that to baseball, but equate that name to the fight for civil rights, pride, honor, and to be treated like a human being. Sorry for my rant, Ichiro is a HOFer... hands down... no doubt.

[MWLFan]

Yes he will go in, if only to get some Japanese tourists to visit Cooperstown. But cynicism aside he also belongs. Question who playing today is a lock? Mariano, Jeter are tow that jump at me. Chipper and Ichiro should be. Albert. Those come off the top of my head.

[Shane Wahl]

Ichiro is a guaranteed first-ballot Hall of Famer. Hardly any rational thinker could doubt this.

[James]

Ichiro is a lock for sure. I think the 10+ seasons with 200 or more hits and the fact that he holds the single season record for hits (264) should really help his case.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, he isn't retiring anytime that soon. 3,000 hit is going to happen.

[James]

Also, he isn't retiring anytime that soon. 3,000 hit is going to happen.

If he starts getting 200+ hits again and play until he's 40, then maybe. I wouldn't say that 3,000 hits is a given though. He showed some signs of slowing down last year. I mean, he could only get 184 hits last year...

[nicksaviking]

No doubt 3,000 is going to happen. He has stated this as a goal and barring injury he's four years away from it max, only three if can average 190 hits during that time. 42 is old but not for the ball players like him who keep themselves in excellent shape. Besides, even if his play tails off over the next couple years, a dozen teams will sign him simply for the bonus Japanese fanbase that still comes with him. Teams who value Asian TV revenues will probably continue to sign him as long as he wants to play.

 

3,000 will guarantee a first ballot. Over the last 20 years, guys who reach the big milestones (3k hits, 500 HR, 300 wins) and don't have steroid accusations nearly all get in first ballot. If Craig Biggio gets the nod his first time out, we will probably be able to etch that theory in stone.

[WJ]

I say he's in. First ballot? That depends on who else is up for voting that year.

[Esoteric Ball Guy]

Ichiro is a sure fire hall of famer and that's if he retired today. I remember an interview he gave a few years ago where he said he wanted to play deep into his 40s and if he lost his ability to hit he'd try his luck as a relief pitcher before retiring. By the time he's done his numbers will be astronomical if you include his time in Japan, and only legendary if you only count what he did in MLB.

[Bark's Lounge]

Yes he will go in, if only to get some Japanese tourists to visit Cooperstown. But cynicism aside he also belongs. Question who playing today is a lock? Mariano, Jeter are tow that jump at me. Chipper and Ichiro should be. Albert. Those come off the top of my head.

The the active players you mentioned - Mariano, Jeter, Chipper, Ichiro, Pujols are a lock. Maybe Halladay? There will be a few from this era, but it is too early to speculate who that might be.

[Shane Wahl]

I cannot believe people are actually doubting this. The guy slowed down for one year (not literally, as the SBs keep coming at a great SB/CS rate still). The guy is going to have 3,000 hits, 1400 runs, 500 steals in three years and he won't be done yet. He has not actually reached his "twilight" of his career.

[WJ]

Ichiro is one Japanese player that HAD to come to the US. He was too good for Japanese baseball.