Is this Twins team legit?

[cHawk]

Our Minnesota Twins begin the 2022 MLB Season with a 24-16 record. However, they haven’t had the toughest of schedules. They’ve been hit with the injury bug early on.

Is this team for real?

[Number3]

I am confident that they should win the Central. Worry about the tough schedule in October. Just keep winning series against teams they should beat which include the other 3 Central teams. Pitching remains a pleasant surprise. Low batting averages do seem to be the norm this year but Twins do seem to have the knack of scoring just enough as in yesterday's game for another sweep.

[wsnydes]

I'm confident in them to the point where I think they should win the division.  Beyond that, not nearly as confident.  They were outclassed by both the Dodgers and Astros by quite a wide margin.  People can point to small sample size, but that's exactly what a playoff series is.  

[Puckett34]

I honestly don't know.  It seems some regressing to the mean is in order (positive and negative).  It is nice to be banking some wins now in May, so I think they'll be in the mix for the division/wild card.

 

I hate being so pessimistic, I think the team has the talent, I'm just not sold on the pitching holding up for 120+ more games.

[Brock Beauchamp]

They're legit in that they're a good team.

But if the comparison point is the Yankees, Astros, or Dodgers, it's hard to suggest they're legit.

But with a key addition or two in July, anything can happen in October. Look at what Atlanta did last season.

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

They're legit in that they're a good team.

But if the comparison point is the Yankees, Astros, or Dodgers, it's hard to suggest they're legit.

But with a key addition or two in July, anything can happen in October. Look at what Atlanta did last season.

This. 

[chpettit19]

The pitching is definitely the part I question most. I think a bullpen arm or 2 are going to be needed at some point and I think another starter or 2 will also be needed. Maybe someone like Canterino can be one of the pen arms if he holds up, but I think a rental starter or 2 will be needed. I haven't checked out the arms on the last year of control that could be available yet, but there's always a couple. 

I think the offense is mostly good enough now, if they can stay healthy. And I'm not sold on that. But I don't know how you prepare much more for injuries. If Kirilloff is figuring things out and healthy and Lewis is ready that's probably the best sort of depth they can ask for right now. Hard to make any trades for bats unless someone goes down for an extended period of time. Maybe a JD Martinez makes sense at the deadline, but he's a DH only and that sort of hamstrings their use of Sanchez (if he turns back into a pumpkin I don't care, but he's good right now), Garlick, and Buxton half rest days.

So I expect them to win the division, but they need some pitching reinforcements to make noise in the playoffs. But all you can do is get in the tourney and see what happens. And, yes, I know, 0-18, but that doesn't change the fact that anything can happen in the playoffs and a hot streak at the right time can lead an 88 win team to a championship. Just get in the playoffs.

[ashbury]

Legit for what?  A good summer of baseball?  Looks like it.  Division crown?  They're setting themselves up to compete.  Challenge for the World Series?  Not at this time.

[bighat]

So far in 2022 it looks like there are a handful of great teams, a handful of somewhat competitive teams, and a whole bunch of bad teams.

The Twins fall in that second category. They're decent, but not great. They could get hot at the right time and make some noise, but I'd still bet on the Angels, Astros, Yankees, and Rays over the Twins. The White Sox could join that group as well if they get their act together.

[shortround81]

--Jomboy voice--

LET'S ******* GOOOOOOOOO!

Next Chapter

[Drunk_Goose]

We are more than good enough to win the division and then see what happens from there. Looking at WS winners from years past, if we add one or two pieces, we are right there with them? Are we as good as the Braves were last year? Right there with them and so on and so forth.

This is baseball, anything can happen.

[Rosterman]

It's a tough call. Bullpen ahs been effective with no real closer.

The bench is starting to look better.

When you look at the perspective of "major league average average", they are hitting okay.

Nice to see some small-ball happening.

Can any starter actually finish six innings?

[Trov]

I would agree they have a legit chance to compete in the central.  Chicago has dealt with similar injuries to starting rotation and lineup, maybe not the number of injuries we have had, but to starters.  They have played similar schedule to us.  

I do not think the Gurdians will hang with us both.  Chicago will expect big things when they get some injured guys back.  The issue with Chicago is they are a bad fielding club and in close games that will hurt them sometimes.  They have some good pitching, their pen has struggled at times. 

So will the Twins keep pace?  I think they can and will.  They have shown their own improvement in hitting overall, and shown depth that they could live with some injuries, as they have, and still compete.  Now, do I have faith they are a top team, no they have issues that other top teams do not.  Can they fix those things, or get on a hot streak in the playoffs sure.  Just as they could lay an egg in the playoffs with the best possible team. 

[James]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Legit for what?  A good summer of baseball?  Looks like it.  Division crown?  They're setting themselves up to compete.  Challenge for the World Series?  Not at this time.

I'm in the camp of anything can happen, but I'm not expecting a world series title.  I am hoping for some great playoff experience for this young core that seems to be developing.  

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, James said:

I am hoping for some great playoff experience for this young core that seems to be developing.  

I left some gray area between a WS championship and any success at all in the playoffs.  Based on results this year against other "legit" teams, I could see another first round sweep, if they even make it there.  Is that great playoff experience for the players?  They already got a dose or two of that, a few short years ago.

Again, "legit" is too broad a term, so there will be disagreement.

[Muppet]

I like to think of them as a team that has a lot of room to improve. They have all season for the rookies to learn, everyone to get in their grooves and get hot, and to learn from all the mistakes they'll make. Do teams like the Yankees and Dodgers really have anywhere up to go from where they are? 

Come August and September hopefully the pitchers will be dominating for 7 innings, Buxton will look like a superstar, Larnach, Royce, Miranda, Ryan, and Winder will be untouchable and they can make this happen. 

If not... oh well. It's only baseball.

[TheLeviathan]

They're on track to make the playoffs and that makes them a good baseball team.  They play great defense, a good team game, and they protect leads well.  

Judging the quality of any team by "they can't win a World Series" is part of the long delusion that we know anything about what it will look like to win a WS this year.  

I mean, last year the key was "Pay two cents for dudes about to be DFA'd, watch them go Babe Ruth on us for two months".  So....moral of the story....in the playoffs, $^*# happens.  Punch your ticket and hope!

[KirbyDome89]

17 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

They're on track to make the playoffs and that makes them a good baseball team.  They play great defense, a good team game, and they protect leads well.  

Judging the quality of any team by "they can't win a World Series" is part of the long delusion that we know anything about what it will look like to win a WS this year.  

I mean, last year the key was "Pay two cents for dudes about to be DFA'd, watch them go Babe Ruth on us for two months".  So....moral of the story....in the playoffs, $^*# happens.  Punch your ticket and hope!

Sure, most everybody understands that once you're into the postseason, there's a chance, but that's understating the uphill battle "underdog" teams face. The WS is littered with repeat appearances the last 10+ years; I doubt it's a coincidence. You're not coin flipping your way to a title. 

More teams now = more chaos so maybe this is the beginning of a March Madness-esque postseason, but at the moment I'd say the "pay two cents," strategy is the exception that proves the rule. 

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Sure, most everybody understands that once you're into the postseason, there's a chance, but that's understating the uphill battle "underdog" teams face. The WS is littered with repeat appearances the last 10+ years; I doubt it's a coincidence. You're not coin flipping your way to a title. 

More teams now = more chaos so maybe this is the beginning of a March Madness-esque postseason, but at the moment I'd say the "pay two cents," strategy is the exception that proves the rule. 

Going back to 2000 there have been 3 times the AL has had repeat appearances in the WS. KC 14-15, Texas 10-11, and the tail end of the NYY 4 straight trips 98-01. The NL has had repeat appearances in the WS 2 times. Dodgers 17-18 and Phillies 08-09. Since 2000 the WS participants have actually been very varied compared to other sports and the majority of major league history.

[KirbyDome89]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Going back to 2000 there have been 3 times the AL has had repeat appearances in the WS. KC 14-15, Texas 10-11, and the tail end of the NYY 4 straight trips 98-01. The NL has had repeat appearances in the WS 2 times. Dodgers 17-18 and Phillies 08-09. Since 2000 the WS participants have actually been very varied compared to other sports and the majority of major league history.

I'm not just counting back to back. Houston made it 3 times in 5 years, as did SF. LA was 3 times in 4 years. You mentioned KC, TX and Philly, I didn't even go as far back as the Yankees run. It's not the NBA where the best teams almost always end up making deep runs, but winning a postseason series isn't the random event it's often reduced to. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Sure, most everybody understands that once you're into the postseason, there's a chance, but that's understating the uphill battle "underdog" teams face. The WS is littered with repeat appearances the last 10+ years; I doubt it's a coincidence. You're not coin flipping your way to a title. 

More teams now = more chaos so maybe this is the beginning of a March Madness-esque postseason, but at the moment I'd say the "pay two cents," strategy is the exception that proves the rule. 

Baseball is a much more random sport than the others.  Only hockey is even in the same ballpark. And I will never understand why people fight so freaking hard to deny this notion.

Baseball in small samples is full of so much noise it's impossible to derive patterns.  The playoffs are just a series of small samples.  Pretending there is some grand logic to that when you would never do that with 5 random games in May is absolutely bonkers.

Atlanta isn't the exception.  That crazy stuff happens all the time.  Hell, I bet you THINK you know that teams repeating are doing so for a reason.  Yet the Dodgers, who made it three out of the last five years, did so in completely different ways.

2017: They rode Bellinger and Turner offensively, but Yu Darvish who had gone 2-0 with 11 innings of 2 run ball prior to the world series, absolutely imploding against the 'Stros

2018: Muncy, a dude who wasn't even in the big leagues in 2017, rides them there offensively, but Kershaw and Ryu spend the playoffs getting shellacked.

2020: All those dudes above?  Non-factors basically.  They rode Will Smith, Seager, Betts, and the one year Kershaw didn't suck.

Again, you wouldn't pick 5 random games in May and declare from your mountain top "This team shall be named champion.  They have earned it clearly with this small, totally representative sample"  Yet, that's what the playoffs are.  In other sports, where less random crap happens, that makes sense.  In baseball it's just silly.

[KirbyDome89]

19 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Baseball is a much more random sport than the others.  Only hockey is even in the same ballpark. And I will never understand why people fight so freaking hard to deny this notion.

Baseball in small samples is full of so much noise it's impossible to derive patterns.  The playoffs are just a series of small samples.  Pretending there is some grand logic to that when you would never do that with 5 random games in May is absolutely bonkers.

Atlanta isn't the exception.  That crazy stuff happens all the time.  Hell, I bet you THINK you know that teams repeating are doing so for a reason.  Yet the Dodgers, who made it three out of the last five years, did so in completely different ways.

2017: They rode Bellinger and Turner offensively, but Yu Darvish who had gone 2-0 with 11 innings of 2 run ball prior to the world series, absolutely imploding against the 'Stros

2018: Muncy, a dude who wasn't even in the big leagues in 2017, rides them there offensively, but Kershaw and Ryu spend the playoffs getting shellacked.

2020: All those dudes above?  Non-factors basically.  They rode Will Smith, Seager, Betts, and the one year Kershaw didn't suck.

Again, you wouldn't pick 5 random games in May and declare from your mountain top "This team shall be named champion.  They have earned it clearly with this small, totally representative sample"  Yet, that's what the playoffs are.  In other sports, where less random crap happens, that makes sense.  In baseball it's just silly.

Of course, and I'm not arguing it isn't in comparison. 

Sure, good teams lose series to inferior opponents across baseball all season long. 

Or they're an elite team that's capable of winning more than one way? LA getting to the WS in three distinct ways doesn't necessarily mean they rolled well during 3 separate runs. I guess you're right, I do think LA was/is a damn good team and that their overall talent won out. 

No, I certainly wouldn't and I'm not under the impression that a WS winner is definitively the "best team in baseball," but similar to the regular season, you expect the superior teams to win more times than they lose over time, hence my point about teams making multiple WS appearances in condensed periods.  

[se7799]

My s8mple direct answer is yes.

[TheLeviathan]

37 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Of course, and I'm not arguing it isn't in comparison. 

Sure, good teams lose series to inferior opponents across baseball all season long. 

Or they're an elite team that's capable of winning more than one way? LA getting to the WS in three distinct ways doesn't necessarily mean they rolled well during 3 separate runs. I guess you're right, I do think LA was/is a damn good team and that their overall talent won out. 

No, I certainly wouldn't and I'm not under the impression that a WS winner is definitively the "best team in baseball," but similar to the regular season, you expect the superior teams to win more times than they lose over time, hence my point about teams making multiple WS appearances in condensed periods.  

The Dodgers getting there three totally different ways indicates there wasn't some blueprint they followed, they just synched up enough random **** that they advanced.

Go ahead and look through the list of WS winners and their regular season records.  In the last 53 years (since 1969, cuz that's the quickest google search I found) the team with the best record in the regular season has won the World Series 13 times.  Only 4 in the last 22 years.  

The playoffs are a series of small samples.  And like all small samples, drawing elaborate conclusions is ridiculous.

[USAFChief]

15 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Baseball is a much more random sport than the others.  Only hockey is even in the same ballpark. And I will never understand why people fight so freaking hard to deny this notion.

Baseball in small samples is full of so much noise it's impossible to derive patterns.  The playoffs are just a series of small samples.  Pretending there is some grand logic to that when you would never do that with 5 random games in May is absolutely bonkers.

Atlanta isn't the exception.  That crazy stuff happens all the time.  Hell, I bet you THINK you know that teams repeating are doing so for a reason.  Yet the Dodgers, who made it three out of the last five years, did so in completely different ways.

2017: They rode Bellinger and Turner offensively, but Yu Darvish who had gone 2-0 with 11 innings of 2 run ball prior to the world series, absolutely imploding against the 'Stros

2018: Muncy, a dude who wasn't even in the big leagues in 2017, rides them there offensively, but Kershaw and Ryu spend the playoffs getting shellacked.

2020: All those dudes above?  Non-factors basically.  They rode Will Smith, Seager, Betts, and the one year Kershaw didn't suck.

Again, you wouldn't pick 5 random games in May and declare from your mountain top "This team shall be named champion.  They have earned it clearly with this small, totally representative sample"  Yet, that's what the playoffs are.  In other sports, where less random crap happens, that makes sense.  In baseball it's just silly.

The postseason isn't played like "5 random games in May."

Nobody is resting their best players. The bottom of the rotation and bottom of the bullpen aren't going to be in any close game. Managers will be managing AB by AB rather than for a long season. 

There is noise in  5 or 7 game series, but not nearly the amount you're claiming. 

[USAFChief]

13 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

The Dodgers getting there three totally different ways indicates there wasn't some blueprint they followed, they just synched up enough random **** that they advanced.

Go ahead and look through the list of WS winners and their regular season records.  In the last 53 years (since 1969, cuz that's the quickest google search I found) the team with the best record in the regular season has won the World Series 13 times.  Only 4 in the last 22 years.  

The playoffs are a series of small samples.  And like all small samples, drawing elaborate conclusions is ridiculous.

What's ridiculous is claiming the Dodgers got there in 3 different ways.

They got there by having the most, or close to the most talent. Max Muncy didn't get them to the WS by himself. He was on a great team, with a deep lineup and strong pitching. Multiple players capable of taking over a series. Multiple good pen options. 

That doesn't guarantee anything, but over time, that's the way to get to a WS. Have the best team.

 

[USAFChief]

As to the topic...I'm going to need another month to believe. But so far, so good. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have set their team up to have a few veterans leading some young players. One more starting pitcher and perhaps a reliever and their current gaggle can gel into a pretty balanced team. Polanco, Kepler, Correa, Arraez, and Buxton are buttressed with Urshela, Sanchez, and Sano (?) in front of a trove of young players with talent: Jeffers, Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Celestino, Gordon, and Garlick. The depth is decent, certainly better than previously. Unknown is how long the young pitchers can carry this team but there is reasonable depth among the the choices with the current group. I would hope Alcala can return effectively and maybe Maeda can be a relief pitcher by September. That leaves the Twins needing one starter with game. I'm still thinking Frankie Montas could be that guy. So, yes - legit.

[Riverbrian]

The Florida Panthers were a pretty good hockey team this year. ?

Are the Twins for real? Pinch yourself... If you don't wake up from a dream. They are real. 

[Number3]

26-16 with a 4.5 game lead is definitely legit. So the thread is really about predicting the next 120 games. With few exceptions the wins have all been by very slim margins (see last night as typical) but winning the close ones is always a key bench mark. The simple answer is yes, they are legit and that is with Buxton in a slump after carrying the team early and Sano a non factor. One main reason is that the rest of MLB really has no outstanding teams outside of the Dodgers and a couple of real good teams in the Yankees and possibly Astros and Angels.