An Early Look Back on the Chris Paddack Trade

[Brandon]

Well we could sign Paddack to an inexpensive extension after we see how his recovery is going.  Maybe next year at 1 million the following season at 2 or 3 million with an option for 5 million give or take.  Nice cost control move.  We get Pagan for 2 seasons.  I think this trade is ok.  It would be better if we had another month or two before the injury but we did get to see our pitching get off to a great start and see that we have lots of depth before the injury.  I don’t think we lost this deal or if so not by much.  Remember closers aren’t as valuable as a stopper who comes in at the most important moment to pitch like Duran ….

[mikelink45]

Of all the elements I find the Rogers would be gone in a year the weakest.  Take that out. Assume that if we wanted to keep Rogers we would sign him.  That is what teams do.  In this era is a SP as valuable as a good RP?  I do not know.  

We currently have 7 pitchers with 10 - 16 games, none are SP.  Ryan at 7 has the most games for a SP.  Innings pitched belong to starters with Ryan dominating,  Paddack has 22, RPs Duran 19, Jax 18, Duffey and Stashak have 15.  Then we have Pagan with 13 games and 12.2 innings and listed by the BR as our closer (I agree).  Luckily we have been on the weak side of our schedule because his 2.13 era masks the fack that in 12 innings he has given up 10 walks and 10 hits!  1.579 WHIP.   He is undefeated and still unwatchable!  Rogers 0.635 WHIP are all I need to say there is a judgment day coming. 

[DocBauer]

Despite the news about Paddack, I remain conflicted about the trade. What I've disagreed with since day one is the idea that Rogers was GONE after this year. Would he really be so expensive that he wouldn't have signed for maybe a 2yr deal around $7-8M per? We've seen such weird changes in FA and financial changes the past few years I just don't know. Clearly, the FO "speculated" about his finances vs a return they could get in a return.

On the surface, any time you can trade a RP for "potentially" 1yr and get a 26yo SP with 3yrs of control, and quality upside, along with at least a "decent" BP arm you think you can work with, and then toss in a talented young flier arm, it seems you would "win" such a trade. And my problem has NEVER been about Paddack, and his potential...which looked very good until this latest injury...or Pagan...who's been scary and getting the job done and just might be good if he harnesses his stuff and his new pitch more consistently...or the young prospect who MIGHT turn out to be good. My problem has always been that I didn't think the trade needed to be made to begin with.

And I'm so very sorry to state this for the 4th or 5th time, because even I am getting tired of doing so, but if our FO had paused for a moment in between Buxton talks and just looked at opportunity available through FA, I still believe they could have brought in a quality mid rotation SP early, and THEN sat back and let things play out, as is their MO. Doing so wouldn't have blown up payroll to some extreme, and allowed them to keep Rogers for the BP, and still add Smith, with the idea Rogers MIGHT re-sign for something that wasn't outlandish. I know said FA wouldn't be 26yo with upside, but it would have, potentially, solidified the staff and kept Rogers for at least this year. And we've got a lot coming up to add to both parts of the staff. 

I never hated the deal, because I understood it. Doesn't mean I liked it or wouldn't have done things differently.  I would have.

And I can't help myself, but I always want to look at any positive that happens in life, or my Twins lifeline, LOL.

1] There is a real chance that Pagan just gets his control figured out real soon. I mean, his career BB is not what he's been showing so far. And with that, if his new splitter starts to find consistency,  he could actually be pretty good. I know, I know, hope and a prayer, right? But he's not a bad arm. He gets a little more control and confidence, Duran keeps maturing, Jax keeps maturing, HOPEFULLY Alcala comes back by July, I suddenly feel pretty good.

2] Considering the advances in TJ, there is a real chance Paddack is pitching for the Twins come June 1st, at worst, July 1st 2023. And yes, I know that means crap for 2022 and the start of 2023. But by mid season next year we might just "add" a SP who might make a difference. And we'd still have a fairly young and talented arm for half of 2023 AND 2024 with the idea of potentially extending him. 

I'm NOT painting lipstick on a pig. I've been pretty clear I would have done things differently before hand, but understand taking "chances" once in a while. The Twins did that. And they got burned for this year. Doesn't mean their decison won't pay dividends down the road. 

I 100% love and agree about building from within, and we are just starting to see the results. And more is coming. So despite my 50/50 split on the Paddack trade, I CAN see the method of the madness to add and come out better in the long run.

NOTE: Flers? Forget Paddack for a moment and think about Archer. He's been inconsistent, but flashes his old self. He needs to build up IP, but also has a mental block, from what I've seen, to just trust himself again. I actually l love the way the Twins have been 'babysitting" him a bit to get healthy and right. He could be a major player before the season is done. At worst, he will suddenly do a Smolt/Aguilera and go to the pen and re-invent himself and be a major BP piece.  

[Rosterman]

For some reason, I felt the Twins didn't feel Rogers was worth going to arbitration with. I was almost surprised that they did.

But that doesn't explain them sending money to San Diego, which means we are basically paying more for Pagan and Paddack.

The plus, of course, is we have another season of Pagan and that he CAN close. The lights out guy we want? Naw. Man, I worry about him almost as much as I do Duffey.

Brent Rooker ended up being a nothing. The Twins would've been hard-pressed to keep him, and we see he is on the verge of not being kept by San Diego. I so wanted Brent to succeed, but...

We still got a prospect out of the deal.

I truly wanted the Twins to get Blake Snell (because he was a lefty). But that would've turned out probably worse. As well as get Eric Hosmer in the deal, and one of the rookie catchers.

But in the end, I just felt the Front Office wasn't happy with Rogers. And that field staff felt he wasn't a closer and that the team could live with other options (one of which was Lewis Thorpe).

 

[gunnarthor]

10 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

You can question the trade all you want.....but the FO being in over their heads?  Joe Ryan for 1/2 season of Nelson Cruz?  Signing Correa?  Dumping Donaldson for Sanchez and Urshela?  I think the FO is doing just fine.....they made the trade....they took a shot and in the present time, it's a loss, but I like the fact that they went for it.  

We traded Cruz because the season was a TSF. Again, I've said it a million times, this FO has two jobs when they were hired - add pieces around the core and keep the window of opportunity open longer. They've had more failures than successes on both of those - they've been bailed out by the players winning despite them, not because of them - but this season looks like it'll be a good one. I hope it does. I'm sure they are learning on the job as well and striving to become better.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

2 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

We traded Cruz because the season was a TSF. Again, I've said it a million times, this FO has two jobs when they were hired - add pieces around the core and keep the window of opportunity open longer. They've had more failures than successes on both of those - they've been bailed out by the players winning despite them, not because of them - but this season looks like it'll be a good one. I hope it does. I'm sure they are learning on the job as well and striving to become better.

Please tell me the failures.....and lets not rehash the Rogers trade as that's up for debate.

[weitz41]

Even with the Paddack having a 2nd TJ I'm not against this trade. Assuming he comes back late next season and is decent. If you look and the Kenta trade its similar in that the Twins got around a season worth of starts (over two seasons) from him and he went under the knife. Yes I know Paddack hasn't made that many starts yet.. I wouldn't call that trade a bad one. I believe the Twins have about the same amount of team control left with both of them. But Graterol was/is more valuable because he wasn't a pending free agent. The Twins were going to be save by committee whether Rogers was here or in San Diego so his number would be a bit different if he was still a Twin. Getting Rooker off the 40 man was a win all by itself. Getting a starter, a scary BP arm and a top 20 prospect for a season of a very good reliever, a player with no place to play and 6 mil seem like a fair gamble. Escobar, Pressly and Berrios trades all were disappointing trades at the time. They don't look so bad now. Like so many other trades it's in my opinion to early to declare this trade good, bad or other.

[Heezy1323]

 

With respect to the differing timelines, I covered a fair bit of that in this blog post a while back. Obviously, no one would willingly choose a procedure with a 12-18 month recovery when one with an expected 9-12 month recovery is also available. The distinction comes down to location of the tear within the UCL and the overall condition of the ligament. UCL Primary Repair (the shorter recovery procedure) is now being done on more and more elite level pitchers, but it isn't available to anyone and everyone. Only those injuries with certain features. It is being performed on very few cases of those with a prior UCL reconstruction (Rich Hill being the only one I know of- there could be more). 

Separately, there is some work now being done on adding what is called an 'internal brace' suture to UCL reconstructions. This is something that is done on all UCL Primary Repairs. The thought is that the internal brace helps protect the healing graft, and perhaps would allow for a more aggressive rehab and sooner return to play as a result. While this is an intriguing idea, it is not yet definitively known if/how much this will shorten the recovery timeline for UCL reconstruction. I can go into more detail if readers would like, but I figure I'd put in my  $0.02. 

[Whitey333]

Not sure how anyone can put a positive spin on the trade.  It was and is a disaster. Worst part is we not only gave Padres 6.5 million in cash but had and have no plans for anyone to close out games.  Pagan reminds me of Ron Davis.  He may be an ok pitcher but not in the closer role.  Just as you say Paddack may be great after he is done with Tommy John, the second time, it's just as likely he will be just a shell of his former self.

[Boom Boom]

Barring an arm injury to Rogers (and I sincerely hope that doesn't happen), it's fair to call this a bad trade for the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

Given how thin the starters are starting to look, it is easy to understand why they did this. The guy got hurt. Anyone claiming to know he'd get hurt is not being truthful. 

I didn't love the trade, but I understood.

They are on pace to win the division for the third time in four years. Claiming they don't have any idea what they are doing seems odd.

[Rosterman]

Interesting piece on Major League Trade Rumors. Seems the Mets were wary on the health status of Paddack.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/05/mets-notes-paddack-hosmer-smith-bassitt.html

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

On 5/21/2022 at 3:13 PM, Brandon said:

Well we could sign Paddack to an inexpensive extension after we see how his recovery is going.  Maybe next year at 1 million the following season at 2 or 3 million with an option for 5 million give or take.  Nice cost control move.  We get Pagan for 2 seasons.  I think this trade is ok.  It would be better if we had another month or two before the injury but we did get to see our pitching get off to a great start and see that we have lots of depth before the injury.  I don’t think we lost this deal or if so not by much.  Remember closers aren’t as valuable as a stopper who comes in at the most important moment to pitch like Duran ….

Huh????  Paddack is already making $2.5m this year and is Arb eligible next season.  And even with missing this season and several months into next season he's going to be looking at $4m+ next season, and probably $7.5m+ the year after that, bare minimum.  Pagan is making $2.3m this season and is also Arb eligible next season, so bump that up to around $3.5m+ next year.  And the Twins are paying almost all of Rogers salary this season on top of everything.  Even before the injury this was a horrible trade when only looking at cost control.

[dxpavelka]

On 5/21/2022 at 8:26 AM, USAFChief said:

Nothing has changed, except an awful trade got even worse. BTW, you forgot to mention the Twins are paying Rogers to pitch for San Diego as a bonus.

A team expecting to contend cannot make this deal. There is no value in "potential 2024 starter" to a 2022 team. None. Zero.

Pretty sure that wasn't the plan when the deal was made. 

[dxpavelka]

On 5/21/2022 at 8:45 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

15/16 saves, an ERA of 0.52 and a WHIP of 0.63.  
 

Hey, you win some and you lose some. This one we lost. It’ll be ok.

but, but, but, the sky is falling.