Too early for Trade, and should one be made at all?

[Trov]

Twins are in first place right now.  They have played a light schedule for the most part.  In about two weeks we start to play some higher class of opponents.  As of right now our first base position has been worst in the league overall.  Only Arraez has managed to hit, but his defense has not been good, but not terrible compared to other positions he has played some this year.  

First, should the Twins make a trade for a first baseman?  We have had several guys play over there and Arraez is only one that has hit, and none have shown amazing defense to make up for lack of hitting.  So should we look to bring one in?  If we did, that would mean Arraez would move off of first.  Do we want that?  His bat is good enough to play at this level, even though some not happy his lack of power.  With his poor defense at every other position so far this year, do we want him playing defense anywhere else?  Should he just DH then? 

If we do not make a trade and do not want Arraez to play at first, who do we use?  Kirilloff has not done anything, but had a couple of good games in AAA, can we wait to see if he starts hitting? Sano is out for at least another 45 days or so, based on going on 60 day DL.  Miranda looks lost at the plate, and defense not there yet much either.  Really, I do not see much in the team to step up if you do not want Arraez to play there.  

Is it too early to make a trade?  Very few teams would be selling right now, aside from a few teams.  I see maybe nine teams that would be giving up right now, my guess less would admit it.  Oakland, Reds, Pirates, Cubs, Rockies, Diamond Backs, KC, Detroit, and Nationals. Of those teams, I would say six have traditional first base guys that would be up for a trade.  Reds, Pirates, KC, Rockies, Nats, and Diamond Backs.  I am limiting to traditional because why would we trade for a non traditional first base when we have plenty that could do that. 

Reds have Votto, who up until this year I would have been more than happy to have, but age may have finally caught up to him.  He has negative WAR, sub .300 obp and OPS of .413.  That is worse than just about all we are putting out there now.  KC has Carlos Santana, who is putting up similar numbers, so he is out in my mind.  Pirates have Daniel Vogelbach, who is putting up career numbers in short sample size, and his defense is not considered good, just okay.  Diamond Backs have Christian Walker, who is putting up career HR numbers, but rest is nothing super special, and his defense is average as well..  Rockies have our old friend CJ Cron who is off to good start, but much like most Rockies, the home road split is crazy.  He is also under contract for 2 years, therefore I think he would be out.  Rockies may not even look to move him, but they really should if a team thinks he will put up those numbers for them. 

That leaves the Nats and Josh Bell.  Many have brought up his name.  If we are looking to make a trade he would be the best available right now.  He is putting up career numbers for batting average and OBP but not OPS.  Meaning his power could still improve.  His BB to K ratio is more walks than K's, way out of line with his career, has he made a change or just SSS and will regress a bit there? We have seen this from him in past in 2019 where he had huge drop off in second half.  He also is below average on defense, so you need this level of offense to sustain going forward.

A few questions come up.  Is he available for trade? Most likely, but Nationals may try to wait out a bit to see if more bidders come along.  How much would it take to get him?  In part that may depend on if the Nats are willing to trade him now or wait it out to see if other teams want his bat.  With DH for all teams there could be a lot of teams willing to take him for DH purposes as his defense is poor.  If I was the Nats I keep him until closer to deadline and see how many teams get into the bidding, assuming he keeps hitting well. 

Overall, I would say if we could get Bell right now for low cost I would do it.  Use his offense to help ride out some wins here.  However, I find it unlikely that will happen.  It will be interesting to see how our first base position develops over the next couple months, and if any other first basemen become available.  Maybe our internal options develop, or Arraez learns to play there better.  It is clearly right now our biggest need, I just am not sure there is a cheap clear upgrade there right now.  I would expect Bell to regress back to his career norms, which on offense is still better than what we have been running out there, but he is still not amazing. 

[ashbury]

Good deep-dive on the topic.  I agree about Bell - if for not much cost, go for him, but it always seems like there are two bidders if not more, and that drives up the acquisition price beyond what I'd probably want to do.  I wouldn't give up Spencer Steer, for instance - I view him as primarily a trade chip, but not for a rental first baseman.

[CRF]

I'd give Larnach a crash course at 1st base, and bring up Lewis and put him in left. I know Kirilloff can play 1st, but I don't trust the wrist to hold up. That way, we'd get Larnach's and Lewis's bats in the line up.