The Twins' 3 Biggest Weaknesses

[Karbo]

I worry the most about Bundy. He's like a train wreck waiting to happen.

[Mike Sixel]

I think top end starting pitcher is the biggest weakness. We just don't know about any of these guys other than probably Gray and maybe Ryan and Ober. But none of those is elite. 

LF is fine. Any issues there are short term. 1B? I'd consider Larnach there, but his arm has been surprisingly effective in LF. Arraez is fine there.

Really, 3B is the biggest issue, and if the incumbent doesn't hit, Lewis should be there this year. 

If you look at the bad teams, there isn't much the Twins could use.....other than Montas, imo.

[Muppet]

11 minutes ago, Thebigalguy said:

We saw how unready the Twins are for postseason when the Astros shut them out twice in two days. And the Yankees are red hot, too, right now. The Twins' job now is to get to the postseason with three  quality starters, which is very doable, given the farm, and the ability to score, consistently, more than three runs a game. Arraez is fine; he gets on base. We've seen that one-run homers aren't sufficient often enough.  The team also needs to manufacture runs and get on base so that a dinger nets more than a single run. Many on this thread are right about Larnach and Lewis, who will be back soon if his bat stays hot at either OF or Ist once he gets in some time at those positions. Kiriloff looked good yesterday; he'll figure it out if he's fully healed. I was astonished Miranda wasn't sent down or have I missed something? He may have been the Twins' minor league hitter of the year in 2021, but he needs to go down and figure it out before he comes back up. Yesterday we saw what this team can do even when Buxton doesn't get a hit; everybody else did their part when the Buxster was walking instead of hitting.  I'm enjoying the season; we're winning when we should. We just haven't figured out to win against the league's elite. I'm thinking we'll get there.

All true, but I don’t see how the Yankees and Astros are supposed to get better over the season when virtually every team they play is worse than them. The twins have a lot of opportunity to improve with the lot they currently have. It’s a tortoise and hare situation. Except that in the twins case, the hare beats them in the playoffs every single time. 

[Mike Sixel]

how 3B isn't listed here is very confusing.

[MTV]

The Twins should make a trade for a 1-2 year first baseman, like Dan Vogelbach, Josh Bell, or Jonathan Schoop. With a lot of outfield depth ready next year, the Twins should probably trade Trevor Larnach in a deadline piece for a high-end Ace-level starter (cough cough Frankie Montas) and possibly a backend starter. A solid bullpen addition would be appreciated, and a high-quality LF with a CF option also would be recommended. I can’t wait for July

[Montdak]

If only Lewis could play all infield positions.  Like first.  Then Miranda rightfully could have been the one to go down.  Lewis will be back soon one way or the other.  Sano “poor start.”  Could just leave off “start.”  A guy that strikes out about every time is an albatross.  If he somehow can’t be sent down until he can hit maybe he can be on some rehab the rest of the year learning to hit?  Maybe be reborn again next year strong.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

We haven't been so deep in the OF for many years, now. LF I consider as a strength especially defensively. Celestino has been great both offensively & defensively, Gordon does a good job out there, he's up and down offensively but alright against RHPing, Larnach will be back and he can be a hitter although his glove isn't as good as the other 2. And then there is Kiriloff there's a chance he'll return.

I also don't see 1B as a clear weakness, yes we don't have an all star there but do we need one there? The big question is where do we put Arraez? 1B is his best option if we find some one different, where do we put Arraez? He's not that good anywhere else. We might still have that problem when or if Kiriloff comes back. Arraez isn't a typical 1B but he doesn't need to be. 1B is the least critical position on the field where we don't need to worry about. We do need some depth there, Miranda isn't working out. Lewis has proven he can hit up here, Arraez has been able to learn 1B on the fly, Lewis has the make up and athleticism to learn it faster and better. Miranda should get better with some more time in AAA.

Rotation? For the post season we will need a veteran ace (my definition is a SP that can give you 7+ quality innings) PS experience if possible, but right now I'd like to see where our SPs are in another month. They'll need as much time as we can give them right now. My greatest worry is short relief (closer), the way Baldelli is prioritize them, I'm afraid he'll burn them out along with the rotation. Then we'll need both short RPs & SPs.

Catching which was a strength, I now see as a weakness. Jeffers isn't getting it done hitting and Sanchez isn't that great defensively, not very good platooning option. IDK really what to do for a solution.

P.S. I wouldn't trust Maeda to make an impact even if he starts to pitch towards the post season. He'll need a lot of time to get his stuff back for any amount of time.

Doc your diagnosis sounds very positive. I'm mainly worried about winning the first game in a playoff and for that we need an ace. Ryan may prove to be the man. Gray is doing well, but we need more. What do you think of having Duran stretch out during the off season and spring training and making him a starter in 2023?

[Otaknam]

4 hours ago, Kipp35 said:

I'd still say their three biggest weakness are: Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and Rocco Baldelli

I am tired of retread starting pitching that doesn’t get the job done. The easy way out is to complain about management. Baldelli was MOY two years ago so he hasn’t become inept since then. SP needs to get them more innings, especially Archer and Bundy. Four innings from starters time after time won’t cut it. If thats what Bundy and Archer continue to get I say let’s bring up Balazovic, Canterino, or Woods-Richardson to see if they can help.

[KirbyDome89]

I don't see this rotation as being built for October success. Both FA signings have been largely unimpressive. I'm pretty much done with Archer at this point, and Bundy has basically been his '21 self, not the reclamation project we were sold. Paddack is gone.

Right now it's Ryan (who I'm probably higher on than most,) cross your fingers on Gray and Ober being more durable for the remainder of the season, hope Winder's recent rough patch is just that, and try to get solid major league innings out of at least one more prospect. 

[Epravens]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

I am tired of retread starting pitching that doesn’t get the job done. The easy way out is to complain about management. Baldelli was MOY two years ago so he hasn’t become inept since then. SP needs to get them more innings, especially Archer and Bundy. Four innings from starters time after time won’t cut it. If thats what Bundy and Archer continue to get I say let’s bring up Balazovic, Canterino, or Woods-Richardson to see if they can help.

Actually Baldelli was inept the year he won MOY. The "Bombas" bailed him out of a lot of stupidity. He MAY be a wonderful human being but he couldn't manage a two stool lunch counter.

[ashbury]

I don't see significant advantage of Vogelbach over what the team already has stashed at AAA, Curtis Terry.  I.e., meh.  Josh Bell, mentioned above, maybe could be interesting, but not at very high cost or else I would stick with the in-house options.

[bighat]

Remember at the start of the year when all the experts were predicting a huge leap forward for Detroit and they were also touting KC as a "sleeper" team to watch?

 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have pretty much bet on their younger players. We can reasonably hope that LF is in good hands with Larnach, Celestino, and Gordon; 1B should be ok with Kirilloff, Arraez, and others filling in; 3B could be improved when Royce Lewis returns and plays their regularly; and it is still possible to pick up Frankie Montas to head the rotation. In any event, the Twins and their fans are in for a summer of experimentation until there is some clarity at the All Star break. 

[Drunk_Goose]

12 minutes ago, bighat said:

Remember at the start of the year when all the experts were predicting a huge leap forward for Detroit and they were also touting KC as a "sleeper" team to watch?

 

That's why most preseason predictions are garbage.

[Drunk_Goose]

Pitching is easiest biggest concern for me. Have been ok so far this season, but if we want to make a push and keep the lead in the division and make some noise in the playoffs I think we need to improve in that area for sure.

[SwainZag]

While finding a prototypical 1st baseman would be nice, I don't think it's that huge of a need.  Arraez is been adequate defensively and his slash against RHP this year is .356/.460/.466.  When a righty is on the mound, he is an absolute must to be in the lineup and the top of it.  Hopefully AK can get it going and be the regular going forward.

[TheLeviathan]

There isn't much for the potential sellers to sell, so not sure I care at this point.  The team has a lot of interesting in-house options for these positions already depending on development.

[cHawk]

9 hours ago, Kipp35 said:

I'd still say their three biggest weakness are: Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and Rocco Baldelli

[Greglw3]

15 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

quit knocking on Arraez..i'm perfectly fine with him at 1st or DH..don't care if he doesn't knock it out of the park. what this team does too often is K....i'd rather have a guy up there batting .300 + than a guy batting .220 and hitting a HR every 20 AB's and K-ing 10 times. 

Two words to confirm what you’re saying about Arraez at 1B. Rod Carew. Won the MVP as a high average hitter playing 1B in 1977.

[Mark G]

13 hours ago, Otaknam said:

I am tired of retread starting pitching that doesn’t get the job done. The easy way out is to complain about management. Baldelli was MOY two years ago so he hasn’t become inept since then. SP needs to get them more innings, especially Archer and Bundy. Four innings from starters time after time won’t cut it. If thats what Bundy and Archer continue to get I say let’s bring up Balazovic, Canterino, or Woods-Richardson to see if they can help.

Kipp35 can correct me here if I am wrong, but I think you just made his case for him.  Falvey, Levine, and Baldelli work in tandem with each other; they come as a package deal, and it would be pointless to get rid of one without the others.  Hence his calling out all three.

Baldelli won MOY because his team happened to hit 307 home runs in a season that may never be repeated.  He has been living off of those home runs ever since.  Molitor won MOY and was fired the next season for only going 78-84 as the FO was selling out from under him in July, so I don't hold that award in as high esteem as some do.  As for being inept, it isn't that so much; he is very good at his managing style.  A growing number of people are simply not enamored with that style.  Our starters are absolutely capable of giving more than 4 innings a crack.  More than one have said so at one time or another.  That is purely our 3 some in charge.  Two stats come to mind off hand (I'm sure there are more, and some you could counter):  In 38 games so far the starters have 7 quality starts.  Not because of the runs allowed, but because only 7 times has a starter gone 6 or more innings (only once has a starter crossed the 100 pitch mark).  And as of the 38th game the BP has pitched just over 48% of the total innings pitched; again, entirely on the 3 in charge.  Second is offense:  with the team we have offensively this year how is it possible that we have scored 3 runs or less in 22 of our 38 games?  Especially considering the quality of competition we have faced so far? This time it is entirely on Baldelli.  When you do not believe in bunting as part of your game, do not believe in the hit and run as part of your game, and do not believe in stealing bases (we have stolen 9 bases as a team, with 2 being the team leaders), what do you believe in?  Apparently, with all the launch angles and acceptable strike out rates, it is the home run.  Earl Weaver was very successful with that mind set, but only because he let his starting rotation carry the load as well.  Baldelli won't, so what we see is what we get.  Runs scored when we hit home runs and counting on 4-6 pitchers a game being on to bail us out when we don't hit any.  We saw last year how far that got us, and so far we are successful against the bottom teams in the league, bur are 2-6 against teams over .500 which is the caliber of team we will see in the playoffs.  Playing musical chairs with the lineup, both in who is playing that day and where they are hitting in the lineup, is all Baldelli as well.  I said this once before in a previous post that our only real hope is this particular blend of players on this particular team can adapt to the style and pull us through.  I sure hope so, because this could be a good group if they are allowed to be.  

[Mark G]

13 hours ago, ashbury said:

I don't see significant advantage of Vogelbach over what the team already has stashed at AAA, Curtis Terry.  I.e., meh.  Josh Bell, mentioned above, maybe could be interesting, but not at very high cost or else I would stick with the in-house options.

I was wondering if anyone would mention Terry.  It seems odd we will bring up Celestino from AA last year, Lewis up this year with very little AAA experience, and pitchers we had no plans for back in March have pitched as well.  We will try Kirilloff, Miranda, and Arraez there, but won't consider giving the one actual first baseman a look?  Makes me wonder why.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

I was wondering if anyone would mention Terry.  It seems odd we will bring up Celestino from AA last year, Lewis up this year with very little AAA experience, and pitchers we had no plans for back in March have pitched as well.  We will try Kirilloff, Miranda, and Arraez there, but won't consider giving the one actual first baseman a look?  Makes me wonder why.

Kiriloff played first last year, and was great. He is a first baseman. Why not Terry? Because he most likely isn't close to the player the others are. Might be. But not likely.

[Rosterman]

 

Twins biggest weakness? Designated Hitter. It should actually be the strength, with guys playing anywhere and everywhere.

First, the Twins need to get back a full line-up, which may happen shortly. Larnach returns and plays left. So we can argue who should play the most: Kepler or Celestino? But the odd guy can DH.

The Twins need a first baseman. Curtis Terry is available in St. Paul. Give the guy a call. You need a roster spot - Terry or Garlick, what is you flavor? Rotate him with Arraez. Then rotate Arraex with Gio. The loser comes offg the bech or DHs.

When pitching rosters go down to 13 come June 1, the Twins will also be able to add another bat. We know it won't be Lewis. I say we should switch out Godoy's 40-man and bring up the next Willians Astudillo - Roy Morales. He can catch, play first base, DH and also hit.

Catcher is a weakness. Teams are going to run on our pitchers and catchers. Not much we can do about it except keep certain guys off the bases, or just continue to dominate against most batters.

 

[JustWinBaby]

Luis Arraez should play 1st Base against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers.  His career OBP against LHP as well as RHP is high, with his career OBP against LHP almost as good as against RHP.  Polanco and Correa will have more RBI and the Twins will score more runs with Arraez batting 1st or 2nd or 3rd in the batting order every game. 

Arraez career OBP against LHP is better than the OBP of the other players who have played 1st base this season.  Rocco likes to gives his players rest periodically, so he should rest Arraez when certain LHP start games for the Twins opponents.

1st Base is a new defensive position for Arraez and he has done well so far.  He will improve with more experience.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

First, the Twins need to get back a full line-up, which may happen shortly. Larnach returns and plays left. So we can argue who should play the most: Kepler or Celestino? But the odd guy can DH.

Is Larnach part of this argument?

[ashbury]

8 hours ago, Mark G said:

I was wondering if anyone would mention Terry.  It seems odd we will bring up Celestino from AA last year, Lewis up this year with very little AAA experience, and pitchers we had no plans for back in March have pitched as well.  We will try Kirilloff, Miranda, and Arraez there, but won't consider giving the one actual first baseman a look?  Makes me wonder why.

It comes down to MLB roster rules, specifically that the 40-man roster is where your major league squad can come from.  If you want to promote someone else, you first need to drop someone from the 40, and that means every other team has the choice to grab who you drop.

Prospects, after being in the organization for a certain (arcane and varying) number of years, must either be protected by being placed on the 40-man, or else be exposed to a draft for other teams to choose from.  Thus, you will have some guys on the 40 who aren't quite ready, but at times you have to press them into major league service anyway, or else have to make a tough decision on whom to lose.  Celestino and especially Lewis are prized prospects and in need of roster protection, so they become higher on the pecking order when a replacement player is needed, and are prime examples of what you asked about.  Jorge Polanco was in a similar situation a few seasons ago, on the 40-man well before he was considered ready, but up he came a few times for emergency duty anyway.

Almost all the "why him when this other guy was doing better at AAA" questions get answered by looking at the situation this way. 

I should try to find a good history of the 40-man roster, because my sense is that the current rules that define it have become outdated relative to the way major league teams manage their rosters.

/ edit - not that you asked, but I did locate the following article, apparently vetted by a SABR member so I give it some credence, which states that the 40-man limit in slightly different form was in place by 1910.  The motivations for exactly what the limit should be surely have changed over the years, so I'll stick with my contention that the concept is outdated and ought to be rethought.  https://www.baseball-almanac.com/articles/baseball_rosters.shtml

[Kipp35]

On 5/19/2022 at 1:42 PM, Otaknam said:

I am tired of retread starting pitching that doesn’t get the job done. The easy way out is to complain about management. Baldelli was MOY two years ago so he hasn’t become inept since then. SP needs to get them more innings, especially Archer and Bundy. Four innings from starters time after time won’t cut it. If thats what Bundy and Archer continue to get I say let’s bring up Balazovic, Canterino, or Woods-Richardson to see if they can help.

I agree that pitching needs to be fixed, but we have to STOP giving Rocco more credit than he deserves. He is good at analytics, but even the club knows he is not good at in game decisions. In 2019 Derek Shelton was the bench coach, and left to take over the Pirates because baseball knew what he did for the Twins. They went out and hired Mike Bell (a multi-generational "baseball guy") to be the bench coach and he unfortunately passed. Now, we have former manager Jayce Tingler (who is a winning MLB manager [116-106]) as the bench coach. He led the Padres to the playoffs for the first time in 13 years, in his first season, and even won the first series in the playoffs. Then followed that up with a respectable 79-83 record and was fired. Rocco struggles with in-game movement and decisions and NEEDS to have that MLB 'baseball guy' to his right.

My point was not that Rocco is worthless, he is simply a struggle once the game starts. His decisions, at times, hurt the Twins on the field and that is why we need to have that other 'co-manager' there to be a voice of reason. Now, if someone could tell him to stop giving Buxton healthy days off, we would be set.