The Alex Kirilloff Situation Is a Colossal Bummer

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins have scored than three runs only twice in their past 10 games. It's clear the lineup could use some more punch.

Which makes it all the more frustrating and gutting that one of their best bats is essentially incapacitated, mired in an unofficial minor-league rehab assignment with no clear endgame. 

Alex Kirilloff's first stretch in the majors (not counting his postseason debut in 2020) was a great example of why you shouldn't put too much stock into results over a modest sampling of at-bats, at least without taking a deeper look. He started out his career in an 0-for-15 slump, but it was clear to anyone watching that Kirilloff was hardly overmatched. He wasn't striking out and when he connected he was driving the ball. 

We all knew the hits were going to come. And they did, in a hurry. The outfielder broke out with a nine-game hitting streak that included three doubles and four home runs. But during that stretch – on May 3rd, while sliding into second on one of those doubles – Kirilloff hurt his wrist. And since then nothing has really been the same.

He kept playing for a couple more months but managed only 13 extra-base hits in 46 games the rest of the way before undergoing surgery in July. The hope was that this procedure would correct the wrist issue while also giving him plenty of time to rehab and be ready for this 2022 season. Unfortunately, it hasn't played out like that.

At no point this year has Kirilloff really looked like himself. He opened the season in a 1-for-17 slump and unlike that opening drought from last year, this one carried no signs of being a mirage. He admitted his wrist was still causing him "a lot of pain" while swinging and went on the injured list, receiving a cortisone shot. Since returning, little has changed.

Statcast, which measures the quality and characteristics of batted balls, paints an almost incomprehensibly grim picture of Kirilloff's performance. His highest exit velocity all year is 100.8 MPH, which puts him in the 9th percentile of MLB hitters for Max AV. Last year he topped that number 35 times. His average exit velocity is down to 85 MPH from 91 last year. He has recorded zero barrels all season, meaning he basically has not once truly squared a ball up.

Kirilloff's launch angle is what really tells the story. It's at -14.1 degrees this year, which means he is basically hitting everything directly into the ground. The extreme nature of that figure cannot be overstated – there is not a single qualified MLB player with a negative launch angle this season, much less that deep in the red. Last year there was one player in the negative (Raimel Tapia of the Rockies at -4.4). 

It's unheard of. Kirilloff's swing is completely broken and that is especially hard to see from a player of his natural talent, who was showing glimpses of letting that talent shine. Kirilloff says he's never been able to swing pain-free since the surgery, and he now sounds like he's just trying to cope with this new reality.

"There's still discomfort, and he thinks that his swing does feel different from how it did before the surgery," wrote Do-Hyoung Park for MLB.com. "He's just not able to pinpoint the exact ways in which it feels different. It might be physical. It might be mental. It's likely some combination of both."

I wish I could feel confident he was going to head to Triple-A and figure things out in short order. But Kirilloff is just so far from where he needs to be, and the path to getting there is so unclear. Playing in a doubleheader for the Saints on Sunday, he notched four hits – all singles. The former standout slugger still has yet to collect his first extra-base hit through 69 plate appearances in the majors and minors.

The Twins need his bat at its full potency. Kirilloff can be a pivotal difference-maker for this lineup, as without him they are severely lacking for left-handed power. They need this swing back: 

Is it still within him? The 24-year-old is going to try to find something that works over the coming weeks at St. Paul. If another month or so passes without the power starting to manifest, you have to wonder if they'll turn to Plan B: another surgery. 

Park mentioned in his article that a procedure could be done to create more space between bones where Kirilloff's cartilage has worn away, contributing to the discomfort. He added that this surgery is "more invasive and involves shortening his ulna altogether by breaking and cutting out a section of the bone."

Sounds unpleasant and undesirable. But we're now basically sorting through bad scenarios to land on the least bad. And in the meantime, Kirilloff – who already lost a full year of his career to Tommy John surgery – is watching his prime playing days pass by while he wrestles with, in his words, "one long, continuous puzzle to try to figure out."

View full article

[wsnydes]

Nice write-up, Nick.

As frustrating as it is for all of us to watch, imagine what he's got to feel like.  Hopefully they're able to figure something out short of the second surgery.

[MGM4706]

There is one BIG mistake the Twins made and that was letting their batting coach from 2 years ago leave instead and paying him more to be an Asst. Mgr. He had ALL the Twins making solid contact for extended periods. It has not been close to the same since he left for just a little more money and a title. A Twins blunder for sure!!

[TopGunn#22]

Yeah, this one is a puzzler and while frustrating to us fans, it has to be driving this kid nuts.  He has a beautiful swing.  I once likened it to Will Clark's swing when I first saw him come up with the Giants.  I'm sure hoping SOMETHING works and we can get Alex back on track.  Wrists are the worst thing a hitter can hurt because EVERYTHING depends on them.  

[PatPfund]

Sad, but good update. It backs up the eye test, which pretty much says Alex isn’t a major leaguer until the wrist is fixed.

[MMMordabito]

13 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

There is one BIG mistake the Twins made and that was letting their batting coach from 2 years ago leave instead and paying him more to be an Asst. Mgr. He had ALL the Twins making solid contact for extended periods. It has not been close to the same since he left for just a little more money and a title. A Twins blunder for sure!!

Was he John Coffey? That's who Alex needs right now.

[wabene]

9 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

There is one BIG mistake the Twins made and that was letting their batting coach from 2 years ago leave instead and paying him more to be an Asst. Mgr. He had ALL the Twins making solid contact for extended periods. It has not been close to the same since he left for just a little more money and a title. A Twins blunder for sure!!

The current hitting coach, Popkins, has Kepler finally going the other way and has Larnach back to his center left power stroke. He has the club swinging a 113 OPS+ this season whereas James Rowson as the bench coach and offensive coordinator for the Marlins has them at OPS+ of 99 this year, 80 last year and 89 the year before.

[wabene]

Hearing that cartilage is involved is sobering. That stuff doesn't grow back.

[strumdatjag]

15 minutes ago, wabene said:

Hearing that cartilage is involved is sobering. That stuff doesn't grow back.

Agreed.   That is the most important fact in this article.   If AK has bone on bone pain, I’m unaware of any long term medical solution.  But I’m not an orthopedist.  If anyone out there has some medical expertise regarding a la k if cartilage in wrist bones, I’m sure we all would like to hear your opinion.  

[GeorgiaBaller]

Coffey to the Rays was a big loss---part of the reason the team looked as bad as they possibly could be at the plate last 2 yrs.  However---if you watch the at bat starting about 2 weeks ago, more players are starting to go the other direction and hit to center left and center right instead of pulling.   I have definitely seen a change in Kepler and saw him go with a pitch on the outside part of the plate that he slowed his wing and went to Left Center. 

I think Popkins is carrying the right message--just takes a while (and several bad at bats)  to get big-leaguers to listen.

Lingering injuries like Kirilloff's are really hard to come back from.  His swing was so fluid and now he is probably unconsciously changing to avoid as much pain----sometimes playing through causes more bad habits.  I hope he finds a path!

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, MGM4706 said:

There is one BIG mistake the Twins made and that was letting their batting coach from 2 years ago leave instead and paying him more to be an Asst. Mgr. He had ALL the Twins making solid contact for extended periods. It has not been close to the same since he left for just a little more money and a title. A Twins blunder for sure!!

That was 2019, right? 

[bighat]

Yeah, huge bummer. Another reminder that even the most highly touted prospects aren't sure things.

It's May 16th and Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have combined for just 100 ABs due to injury - and even when healthy, have amassed a total of ZERO home runs. I know that fan bias makes it almost impossible to consider that neither of these guys will work out. But if you were a Pirates or Mariners fan, you probably wouldn't be too convinced that either of them have an All-Star career in their future. Okay, okay, Larnach's had a nice start aside from injury but the point is that a couple of years ago you'd have thought we had Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb waiting in the wings.

Kirilloff's looking more and more like an answer to "Forgotten Twins Trivia". Doesn't take long to get on that list, either. Remember Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonzalves?

[Trov]

I have faith his natural talent will get him back, however, it sounds like he will have to learn to live with pain in his wrist.  I do not know the pain and how bad it is, but I am sure it cause a slight difference in his swing.  If he can learn to live with the pain and adjust to it and get back to making loud contact that will be great.  However, it may just be he will never get back to what he was.  Time will tell.  I like that they sent him down to really work on it.  Give him at-bats every game and let him learn to hit with the pain.  

[Seansy]

This is the most depressing injury news for the Twins this season in that AK's injury may be career ending/altering and would rob him and Twins fans of what looked like an outstanding career.

All the best to him.

[adorduan]

i wonder if any of this has to do with all the playing/repetitions he did as a kid? 

[Jham]

Not a swing analyst. Not an orthopedic. But a few years back Kurt Suzuki and a handful of MLB players had found success using an ax-handled bat that is supposed to keep your front wrist in a stronger pronated position and help prevent wrist injuries.

https://axebat.com/blogs/news/biomechanical-study-of-the-new-axe-handle-baseball-bats-and-comparison-with-standard-round-knob-bats

Not sure if players are still using these, but I'd try it. I'm sure the wrist is causing him to not barrel balls. But not barreling up also jars that wrist. 

I also just get worried with lefties who primarily stroke to the opposite field. It looks sweet, but all that late contact leaves little margin for error. You have less time to get the swing on plane and if you're fooled and out front, you're likely to roll over your wrists. I haven't looked at AK's swing plane, but presumably he's still pretty straight to the ball. My hypothesis is he's chopping at the ball to catch up and then having to roll his wrists if he's out front. I don't know how else he'd generate so many fly balls. 

[Schmoeman5]

4 hours ago, MGM4706 said:

There is one BIG mistake the Twins made and that was letting their batting coach from 2 years ago leave instead and paying him more to be an Asst. Mgr. He had ALL the Twins making solid contact for extended periods. It has not been close to the same since he left for just a little more money and a title. A Twins blunder for sure!!

Except Alex Kirilloffs hitting coach is his dad

[Schmoeman5]

4 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

Was he John Coffey? That's who Alex needs right now.

Like the drink only spelt different John Coffey. I was thinking more along the line of Mr. Miagi

[Doctor Gast]

1st I'd like to wish Kiriloff the best! and that he'd be able to figure out this puzzle. I credit Kiriloff's dad on his hitting prowess and also Kepler change of philoshophy. Kiriloff's dad was working with Kepler during the off season and I noted that Kepler was going the other way by his swing.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, adorduan said:

i wonder if any of this has to do with all the playing/repetitions he did as a kid? 

He probably ate his Wheaties with a bat shaped spoon.

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, wabene said:

Hearing that cartilage is involved is sobering. That stuff doesn't grow back.

Not to mention... it takes at least 6 months to buy it because of the chip shortage. ?

[Mark G]

Something else comes to mind along this subject, or at least to me.  It wasn't that long ago that Sano was playing 3rd, and to make room for Donaldson we moved him to 1st (2020 if I remember right)  In '21 we started to play Kirilloff at 1st and he took to it well; well enough that a lot of people thought he would be the long term 1st baseman of the future.  Now, in only the 3rd year since moving Sano, we find both Sano and Kiriloff on the IL and...............who is our first baseman?  Miranda and Arraez?  What it has brought to light is the lack of depth at 1st we have in the organization as a whole if there is not one true first baseman we feel we can bring up and fill in even short term.  Curtis Terry is the only one I could find on the Saints roster.  For all our great prospects we have coming up through the system, we have no 1st basemen and Jose Godoy as our fall back catcher?  And let us not forget how many people are wondering if Sano's days here are numbered, this being the last year of his contract, and not knowing if Sanchez will be here next year as well.  If Kirilloff is not well soon, these are two positions we may want to address in free agency in the near future.  Or the trade deadline?  

[Heezy1323]

On 5/16/2022 at 8:22 AM, strumdatjag said:

Agreed.   That is the most important fact in this article.   If AK has bone on bone pain, I’m unaware of any long term medical solution.  But I’m not an orthopedist.  If anyone out there has some medical expertise regarding a la k if cartilage in wrist bones, I’m sure we all would like to hear your opinion.  

I'm an orthopedic surgeon, but not a hand/wrist specialist.

The difficult part here for me is- I can't really find any specifics on what surgery Kirilloff had performed. I can only find 'ligament repair' in his wrist. Unfortunately, there are numerous ligaments in the wrist and they may each have different implications.

Secondarily, with regards to the cartilage- there are at least 10 bones that I would consider being part of 'the wrist', so there could be cartilage wear between any of those bones (or multiple). If a proposed procedure to remedy this is cutting the ulna and shortening it (what we would call an ulnar shortening osteotomy), the arthritic changes (cartilage wear) probably involve wither the distal radioulnar joint (DRUJ) or the lunate (one of the pebble shaped bones of the wrist). The distal radioulnar joint is the area where the two forearm bones meet just above the wrist. The radius rotates around the ulna as one turns their hand from palm up to palm down position. 

If there is arthritis between these bones, as is being reported, I'm not aware of any good fixes. Because I don't do much hand/wrist stuff, there may some cutting edge things I'm not aware of. But this, to me, is a pretty significant bummer. I wish I could say different, but I'm not super-optimistic for a resolution of this problem. It's possible more information would change my opinion. 

[stringer bell]

Kirilloff had four hits for the Saints today, including a double and a homer. His AAA numbers suddenly look very good. I believe Alex now has eight hits in the last four games. Hopefully, he can sustain this hot streak, get his confidence back and return to help the Twins.