Rotation

[stringer bell]

What was it, two weeks ago when we were commenting on how effective the rotation was? Since then, Joe Ryan has looked human in two straight starts, Chris Paddack hurt his elbow with likely TJ surgery, Dylan Bundy threw two consecutive stinkers, and Chris Archer is getting even less far into games and giving up runs to boot.

Josh Winder has two outstanding starts, so we can expect regression at some point and Bailey Ober is on the Injured List. Ober has passed the minimum time to be on the list, but it appears that he will need to make at least one rehab start. Sonny Gray returned to the rotation after missing about three weeks. Gray was supposed to make another rehab start, but instead faced the AAAAs and pitched four scoreless innings.

Not exactly as rosy as things were about May 1. We fans can expect that, not just Twins fans, but all fans. Starting pitchers get ineffective (see Shoemaker and Happ) and they get injured. If a starting pitcher stays both effective and healthy enough to take his turn, he is worth tens of millions of dollars to his team. 

Thoughts on the current rotation pieces: 1) Gray is as advertised. He a quality starter, not as durable as he was in his 20s, but he will give the club innings and give them a chance to win almost every time out. 2) Ryan is a rookie with a nice future. It remains to be seen if he can be effective for a whole season. He needs to find the right formula of being a strike thrower and making hitters chase. It didn't work on Tuesday. 3) Ober's contribution will go a long way towards determining the success of the rotation and the season. He's not pitched many innings over his career and is on the IL now. He finished very strong last year (with innings restrictions). I hope and expect he can do the same this year. 4) Josh Winder is another wild card. I hope the Twins manage his innings and get him through the season. He's got enough stuff to be very successful. 5) Chris Archer. Archer can't seem to have quick innings and get deep enough into games. His 5-run in three innings appearance made his formerly gaudy ERA swell to 4.43. He's got an adequate change to go with enough fastball velo and a decent slider, but he's made it hard on himself in every start with high pitch counts. Changes need to be made to get him deeper into games. 6) Dylan Bundy. Great command his first three starts followed by two straight where he didn't give his team much of a chance. I guess I would expect something in between most often going forward, but Bundy knows how to get people out, so I wouldn't write him off quite yet. 7) Chris Paddack. If by some miracle he doesn't require his second TJ surgery, he might be pretty good. If he does go under the knife, the Twins can hope to get at least a full year out of him. He could be a veteran presence in the middle of the decade. 

Lots of question marks for this rotation. Two big prospects are on the horizon--Matt Canterino is only going four innings per start, but he's been lights out in AA and Jordan Balazovic made his first St. Paul start this season and made it 3.2 innings. If either of these guys could come up and augment the current starters, it would be a win for the pitching pipeline. The future looks very good for both of them if they can stay healthy.

[In My La Z boy]

This is exactly why I give the FO a pass on the Rogers for Paddock trade. You cannot have enough starting pitching. Last night was a good night on the farm for our pitchers. We'll need at least 2 more to come up and help this year, and we'll need a trade or two. Never enough starting pitching is a good theory from which to operate a baseball club.

[jorgenswest]

Two others at different points in their career might be Smeltzer and Woods-Richardson.

Woods-Richardson needs to added to the 40 at the end of the season so a push to AAA and an August call up might be reasonable with continued success. An August call up would probably preserve an option use this year.

Smeltzer will get a shot at some point. It will be on him to make the most of it,

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Ober has passed the minimum time to be on the list, but it appears that he will need to make at least one rehab start

Question, why do these starters need to make rehab starts if the plan is only to go 3 or 4 innings, isn't that what the starters have been doing anyway, seems like a waste of innings?

I get the need for a rehab start if you plan on that starter being a 6 - 7 innings starter, but that doesn't seem to be the plan for really anybody.

[chpettit19]

Gray, Ryan, Winder, and Ober I have confidence in being effective pitchers more often than not. The question with all four, for various reasons, is the number of innings they'll be able to pitch this year.

Bundy and Archer are high volatility options who you just want to get as many good innings out of as you can while eating an L or 2 when they just don't have their control. (news flash: every team has days where their starter just doesn't have it and the game is out of control early. The Reds just scored 14 against the Brewers for goodness sakes and the Nats dropped 8 in the first 2 innings on the Mets. Don't freak out that the Twins will have the same thing happen sometimes)

Smeltzer is a reasonable option to have at AAA for spot starts throughout the year and I'd expect him to be added to the 40-man if there's anymore injuries to starters.

I'd guess those are your "top 7" guys right now, and I think they can keep you in most games while the offense hopefully gets going when it gets healthy. They're going to need more than 7 starters to get through the rest of the year, though. The question will be if any of the Balazovic, Canterino, SWR types can step up and fill a major league role for any amount of time or if they'll have to cross their collective FO fingers on guys like Chi Chi or a late season Dobnak sighting.

[ashbury]

On 4/6/2022 at 5:44 PM, ashbury said:

Paddack missed time last year because of an elbow injury, according to MLBTR.  I hope the Twins FO and medical staff are diligently exercising all due due-diligence that is due.

 

37 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

This is exactly why I give the FO a pass on the Rogers for Paddock trade. You cannot have enough starting pitching. Last night was a good night on the farm for our pitchers. We'll need at least 2 more to come up and help this year, and we'll need a trade or two. Never enough starting pitching is a good theory from which to operate a baseball club.

The saying is "you cannot have enough good starting pitching."  Probably it should be further amended to say "good healthy starting pitching."  Acquiring an arm with a high chance of physical breakdown is not much better than having no arm to work with at all.

I dug up my reaction to the trade at the time it was first rumored, just to confirm for my own satisfaction that I'm not Monday-morning quarterbacking or anything.

Any pitcher can get injured, and there are no guarantees.  But I have this sneaking suspicion that among all the advances in analytics, some teams have done better jobs than others at teasing out from the "big data" which types of pitcher are more prone to injury, which training practices are more likely to avoid injury, which injury histories are important and which can be brushed off as just luck.

If you construct a pitching roster with 8 starting pitcher candidates, all of whom are 75% likely to spend time on the IL during the season, that seems like a big disadvantage relative to a competitor who is able to reduce those chances to 25%.  It could be that the disparity among teams really is that large, and that for all our FO's vaunted dedication to analytics, they lag badly, and a team like the Padres takes advantage.

But I haven't run the numbers myself, so I'm just speculating.  Further, Taylor Rogers has his own injury history, and it may only be a matter of luck that the Padres haven't been bitten by it yet.

I just know that if I were in charge of a team, I would be asking my analytics team to do everything they can to push forward the frontier of knowledge on this subject.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Question, why do these starters need to make rehab starts if the plan is only to go 3 or 4 innings, isn't that what the starters have been doing anythings, seems like a waste of innings?

I get the need for a rehab start if you plan on that starter being a 6 - 7 innings starter, but that doesn't seem to be the plan for really anybody.

I don't know if the "3 or 4 innings" is sarcastic or not, but Ober went 5, 6, 5 innings in the 3 starts he had before getting hurt, and the team has been stretching guys out and letting them go deeper as they build their stamina after a shortened spring. Even if they've been a little extra conservative with some guys.

But as for the rehab start in general, it's more about knocking the rust off and getting a few innings in a real game that doesn't matter before just stepping on a major league mound and facing major league hitters. You want to make sure the delivery is sound and you've got your control and stuff where it needs to be. Better to have a quick test run in the minors instead of getting plastered for 5 runs in the majors and losing a game for the big club.

[jorgenswest]

23 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Question, why do these starters need to make rehab starts if the plan is only to go 3 or 4 innings, isn't that what the starters have been doing anythings, seems like a waste of innings?

I get the need for a rehab start if you plan on that starter being a 6 - 7 innings starter, but that doesn't seem to be the plan for really anybody.

In a rehab start you can focus on getting the feel of all of your pitches. You don’t have to be all out to win if a pitch isn’t working. You can keep working with that pitch.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, ashbury said:

 

The saying is "you cannot have enough good starting pitching."  Probably it should be further amended to say "good healthy starting pitching."  Acquiring an arm with a high chance of physical breakdown is not much better than having no arm to work with at all.

I dug up my reaction to the trade at the time it was first rumored, just to confirm for my own satisfaction that I'm not Monday-morning quarterbacking or anything.

Any pitcher can get injured, and there are no guarantees.  But I have this sneaking suspicion that among all the advances in analytics, some teams have done better jobs than others at teasing out from the "big data" which types of pitcher are more prone to injury, which training practices are more likely to avoid injury, which injury histories are important and which can be brushed off as just luck.

If you construct a pitching roster with 8 starting pitcher candidates, all of whom are 75% likely to spend time on the IL during the season, that seems like a big disadvantage relative to a competitor who is able to reduce those chances to 25%.  It could be that the disparity among teams really is that large, and that for all our FO's vaunted dedication to analytics, they lag badly, and a team like the Padres takes advantage.

But I haven't run the numbers myself, so I'm just speculating.  Further, Taylor Rogers has his own injury history, and it may only be a matter of luck that the Padres haven't been bitten by it yet.

I just know that if I were in charge of a team, I would be asking my analytics team to do everything they can to push forward the frontier of knowledge on this front.

The Padres had 7 pitchers miss at least part of last season with Tommy John surgery. They had 4 other pitchers miss time with non-TJ elbow injuries last year (Twins had 3). I'm not sure they're the best example of a team taking advantage of great analytics on elbow management. They were tied for 2nd in the league in TJ surgeries in 2020.

For reference here's the per team list of TJ surgeries for 2021 from Fangraph's RosterResource:
SD- 7
TB- 4
LAD- 3
SF- 2
Pit- 2
Cin- 2
Tex- 2
Sea- 2
Det- 2
LAA- 1
CHW- 1
KC- 1
MN- Maeda
NYY- 1
Tor- 1
AZ- 1
Hou- 1
Mil- 1
Was- 1
NYM- 1
Phi- 1

So maybe your argument could be not trading for SD pitchers in general? But certainly not that they have some great feel for arms that won't breakdown.

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Padres had 7 pitchers miss at least part of last season with Tommy John surgery. They had 4 other pitchers miss time with non-TJ elbow injuries last year (Twins had 3). I'm not sure they're the best example of a team taking advantage of great analytics on elbow management. They were tied for 2nd in the league in TJ surgeries in 2020.

For reference here's the per team list of TJ surgeries for 2021 from Fangraph's RosterResource:
SD- 7
TB- 4
LAD- 3
SF- 2
Pit- 2
Cin- 2
Tex- 2
Sea- 2
Det- 2
LAA- 1
CHW- 1
KC- 1
MN- Maeda
NYY- 1
Tor- 1
AZ- 1
Hou- 1
Mil- 1
Was- 1
NYM- 1
Phi- 1

Interesting data.  Maybe I had it backwards and you just shouldn't trade with the Padres, ever, not because they'll outsmart you but because it's all damaged goods.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know if the "3 or 4 innings" is sarcastic or not, but Ober went 5, 6, 5 innings in the 3 starts he had before getting hurt, and the team has been stretching guys out and letting them go deeper as they build their stamina after a shortened spring. Even if they've been a little extra conservative with some guys.

But as for the rehab start in general, it's more about knocking the rust off and getting a few innings in a real game that doesn't matter before just stepping on a major league mound and facing major league hitters. You want to make sure the delivery is sound and you've got your control and stuff where it needs to be. Better to have a quick test run in the minors instead of getting plastered for 5 runs in the majors and losing a game for the big club.

The 3 or 4 innings were meant as the rehab start, not what Ober did or is expected to do going forward.

These are major league pitchers, they can knock some rust off pitching 3 innings in the majors and shouldn't be plastered for 5 runs. Sonny Gray did just fine, and so what if they give up some runs, it isn't like the guy that is taking his place to start is so much better or will pitch so much longer than him.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

Interesting data.  Maybe I had it backwards and you just shouldn't trade with the Padres, ever, not because they'll outsmart you but because it's all damaged goods.

TJ isn't the only thing to measure of course.

I edited my comment too late, but added the not trading with the Padres piece, too!

I know TJ isn't the only thing to measure, that's why I added other elbow injuries. They also had 2 pitchers each miss time on multiple occasions for forearm/flexor tendon injuries, which was also more than the Twins. They've been awful with pitcher health and performance for the last few years. Truly awful.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The 3 or 4 innings were meant as the rehab start, not what Ober did or is expected to do going forward.

These are major league pitchers, they can knock some rust off pitching 3 innings in the majors and shouldn't be plastered for 5 runs. Sonny Gray did just fine, and so what if they give up some runs, it isn't like the guy that is taking his place to start is so much better or will pitch so much longer than him.

Sonny Gray made a 3 inning rehab start before he came back.

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I edited my comment too late, but added the not trading with the Padres piece, too!

I know TJ isn't the only thing to measure, that's why I added other elbow injuries. They also had 2 pitchers each miss time on multiple occasions for forearm/flexor tendon injuries, which was also more than the Twins. They've been awful with pitcher health and performance for the last few years. Truly awful.

We both did a bit of editing, and both were replying too fast to see it.

[tony&rodney]

2 cents ... Still have hopes for the Twins rotation but my initial thoughts from two months ago remain unchanged. Ryan may have difficulty against good teams and must have pinpoint control to succeed; Archer will be challenged to find his way back to 100 effective pitches; Bundy has lost some of the stuff needed to go up against solid MLB batters; Paddack was a risky bet that may  eventually pay off but I still do not understand that trade, and Maeda and Dobnak cannot be counted on this year. Sonny Gray projects to have success for 5-7 innings if he keeps his pitch count reasonable; Ober can be quite good if he manages to dodge annoying injuries; and Winder looks solid because he has good control and has at least two pitches that can be above average. My wager was on Ober, Winder, and Gray. It is a long season and many things can change over the next few months. The Twins could use some of their star batters and young sticks to step forward. A heavy dose of runs sure makes any starting pitcher more comfortable with their pitch selections.

[In My La Z boy]

49 minutes ago, ashbury said:

 

The saying is "you cannot have enough good starting pitching."  Probably it should be further amended to say "good healthy starting pitching."  Acquiring an arm with a high chance of physical breakdown is not much better than having no arm to work with at all.

I dug up my reaction to the trade at the time it was first rumored, just to confirm for my own satisfaction that I'm not Monday-morning quarterbacking or anything.

Any pitcher can get injured, and there are no guarantees.  But I have this sneaking suspicion that among all the advances in analytics, some teams have done better jobs than others at teasing out from the "big data" which types of pitcher are more prone to injury, which training practices are more likely to avoid injury, which injury histories are important and which can be brushed off as just luck.

If you construct a pitching roster with 8 starting pitcher candidates, all of whom are 75% likely to spend time on the IL during the season, that seems like a big disadvantage relative to a competitor who is able to reduce those chances to 25%.  It could be that the disparity among teams really is that large, and that for all our FO's vaunted dedication to analytics, they lag badly, and a team like the Padres takes advantage.

But I haven't run the numbers myself, so I'm just speculating.  Further, Taylor Rogers has his own injury history, and it may only be a matter of luck that the Padres haven't been bitten by it yet.

I just know that if I were in charge of a team, I would be asking my analytics team to do everything they can to push forward the frontier of knowledge on this subject.

Very valid take. I guess with all trades, time will tell the story. Seems the FO was attempting to help us, not just this year, but well beyond. Paddock still has a chance to help us next fall and in 2024. No way apparently we were going to resign Rogers after this year. This trade also tells us we would have traded him at the deadline last year if he wasn't hurt. 

[terrydactyls]

After reading this article, the minor league report, and articles about Canterino and Woods-Richardson, I'm thinking that trades and free agent signings for pitchers like Paddock, Bundy, and Archer may become a thing of the past.  There is a possibility that by mid-2023, those battling for the starting rotation may be:

Ryan, Ober, Gray, Maeda, Canterino, Winder, Woods-Richardson, Varland, and Balazovic 

and those trying to make the team as part of the bullpen consist of: 

Duran, Sands, Cano, Duffy, Alcala, Moran, Jax, Cotton, and Smith.

My thought is that this would be damn strong and there are more in the minors ready to move up to St. Paul.  I think pitching won't be a major area of concern any longer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

IMO--Archer has to change his mindset.  He looks like he's trying to strike everyone out.  He gets ahead in the count and then tries to make the perfect pitch for strikeout, which has lead to higher pitch counts and shorter outings.  I hate the pitch to contact philosophy as much as anyone, but there has to be a middle ground if he's going to get into the 5th-7th innings in future starts. 

He'd be an interesting closer with how demonstrative he is on the mound......just a thought.