Are These Twins For Real?

[John Bonnes]

The AL Champion Astros are in town, proving again that The Baseball Gods answer prayers. They've been fielding* the same invocation from Twins fans: are the first place Twins for real? Like for real, for real? This series should give a hint.

(*Get it? Fielding? Little baseball pun there. It's well known that The Baseball Gods love baseball puns.)

The team didn't look "for real" last night against the Astros and Justin Verlander, but Verlander clearly has some celestial blood running through his veins. He's 39, coming off Tommy John surgery, leads MLB in innings pitched, and has a 1.55 ERA. If that doesn't whisper "demigod," you deserve whatever wrath those Divine Deities of the Diamond throw your way.

But despite last night, the Twins are for real. I won't suggest the path will be an easy one because I don't want to assume that the Twins players won't continue to drop like flies. (The Baseball Gods hate it when you assume your team's players won't drop like flies.) And because The Baseball Gods love stats (they work overtime devising new stats), let's look at a few.

Twins run differential +35

Runs are the currency by which wins are purchased. I think Bill James wrote that, and if so, I'm sure it'll be referenced when The Baseball Gods consider him for Assumption. Runs tend to stay in sync with win-loss records. If they don't, one or the other is likely to adjust. 

But they're in lockstep for the Twins. Given how many 1-run games the Twins have recently won (seven in a row), they might feel like they're getting a little lucky. And they are. The crazy endings versus the White Sox and Tigers were undoubtedly The Baseball Gods entertaining themselves. But their run differential, which ranks third in the American League, suggests the team is also pretty good. 

Twins record vs teams better than .500 = 5-3

Doubters love to look at a team's record against winning teams, but the Twins are one of only three teams better than .500 versus winning teams. That can be a tricky stat. Some teams go back and forth over that line. For instance, the Twins are 3-0 versus the White Sox, who are precisely .500 when I'm writing this. If they win one more game, the Twins' record improves to 8-3, which is even better.

AL Central's cumulative record = 12 games below .500

The Baseball God hate taking opponents for granted. But they also hate the hubris that can result from leading a bad division. So let's be clear: the AL Central is bad. The Twins need to take advantage of that.

The Twins get to play 67 more games against the worst division in the American League. Finishing atop that division doesn't guarantee any postseason success (a fact that The Baseball Gods have emphasized mercilessly for the Twins' last 18 postseason games), but it still punches a postseason ticket.

The news gets better. There are also three Wild Card teams in the postseason this year. While the Yankees, Rays, and Jays are scrapping, the Twins will be competing with the Guardians and White Sox for a high 80s win total.

So put me in the "cautiously optimistic" category about the Twins' chances this year because that is as high a category as The Baseball Gods condone. It might even be too high. (After all, they were already merciful once in that category. Remember, we were "cautiously optimistic" about Buxton's knee.)

But to be safe, let's sit and watch and enjoy the season. The Baseball Gods love that.

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[gunnarthor]

The AL is weaker than I thought so this is a playoff team - which is what we should have demanded anyway. I don't think we're going to make much noise in the playoffs but making the playoffs is much better than not making the playoffs.

[Dave Overlund]

Whatever ends up happening this season, there are some real 2001 vibes going on. A young nucleus learning on the fly, pitchers on their way up, very few payroll obligations moving forward. The watchability of this team is off the charts IMO. 

It's so refreshing to see Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Jeffers, etc out there rather than Simmons, Cave, Refsnyder, etc. Same for Duran/Colome and Ryan/Shoemaker or Winder/Happ. 

I am fine with hitting bumps on the road when it is for the greater good. 

[GNess]

Tough to judge without Correa, Arraez, Larnach and Buxton vs the Astros, but I think the Twins as they are currently structured will at least contend for the Division Title and a WC berth. 

[D.C Twins]

If Buck stays relatively healthy, they are a 'real' contender for the playoffs.

Not a contender for being a 'real' threat in the playoffs this year IMO,  but give this core 1-2 years of experience on top of talent.....absolutely a WS contender too...if Buck stays healthy (which should be added to the end of any prognostic declaration about the Twins  

[LastOnePicked]

10 minutes ago, Dave Overlund said:

It's so refreshing to see Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Jeffers, etc out there rather than Simmons, Cave, Refsnyder, etc. Same for Duran/Colome and Ryan/Shoemaker or Winder/Happ. 

I am fine with hitting bumps on the road when it is for the greater good. 

This is exactly where I'm at.

I think the bumps are to be expected. Unwise to expect 100 games from Buxton, and Miranda and Lewis are just getting their feet wet, and injuries might just do us in, but a lot of young players are learning in the right environment. At max, I see this team regrouping and contending for a WC spot.

BUT, the offense is an issue, and the bottom could drop out with just a few more injuries. Kinda wish I had a crystal ball.

[Vanimal46]

Yes the Twins are for real. The Astros are the last tough team we’ll play in May. Then the rest of the month is full of potential wins against the weak division opponents. All I ask is to ride out the season with Correa, and pray to the baseball gods to give us 110 healthy Buxton games. 

[mikelink45]

Watching us in comparison with the approach of the Astros was an eye opener.  I judge record against above 500 teams based on the record when we play them not what they might do when their players get healthy.

Yes we can and should win the division, but I am looking at what tier we will be in.  Buxton is playing in 19 of 30 games and he is the catalyst.  We do not have an Ace - sorry Joe Ryan, you are really good but not a top flight starter and we need to have that stopper in the rotation in the playoffs. I am currently reading Brothers in Arms - the history of Dodger pitching and seeing their history of great pitchers is amazing. 

The Astros showed amazing patience at the plate to throw Ryan off his game.  They stole bases, they advanced, hit and run, and still do HRs and hits with less Ks.  I hope our team took note, especially the young guys who I hope will continue to advance with experience. 

 

[LA VIkes Fan]

I agree that the Twins should at least contend for the division title. Frankly, a wild-card spot might be tougher to get this year. I hope the team took notes last night because the Astros showed you how to play. They advanced runners and took professional at bats against a starter who was only just a little wild. The scored at least some of their runs on a ground out, a 2 out single after a player walked and stole 2nd base, and a sacrifice fly. Combine that with a pitcher how threw strikes and made the opposition put the ball play into an elite defense and you have a real recipe for winning baseball. It is also the recipe that would work best for these Twins. We don't have the offensive talent to bludgeon anyone to death nor can we expect ace stuff from the rotation,  We need to play smart situational baseball at the plate, good defense, and get pitching that requires our opponents to put the ball in play. Just like the Astros last night.  

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO, if their starting pitching falls off (which is kind of has started to) and the offense doesn't get healthy real, real fast, things could get ugly. I don't think the team is for real without Buxton, Correa, Arraez and Polanco playing at least as expected.

But the real question IMO is can they get healthy and finish the last 20 games of this month, around 14-6? if not, I am not sure how the make the playoffs. The Yanks, Blue Jays, Rays, White Sox, Angles and Astros seems like teams that would go at least that against this schedule.

[James]

27 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Yes the Twins are for real. The Astros are the last tough team we’ll play in May. Then the rest of the month is full of potential wins against the weak division opponents. All I ask is to ride out the season with Correa, and pray to the baseball gods to give us 110 healthy Buxton games. 

The baseball gods usually demand sacrifices of some sort. Let's hope Paddack's UCL was a big enough sacrifice for 110 games of Buxton.

Maybe that's why Falvine traded for Paddack in the first place?  Specifically to be the sacrifice to the baseballs gods.  If so, they are sneakier than we give them credit for. 

[Doctor Gast]

The team that faced Verlander is very young, it's good experience for them, they need it when they arrive to the post season. Experience is valuable if you think you can win with only youth you are sorely mistaken. They'll learn from this series and grow, hopefully we don't get swept with this team that they putting out there. Also I was expecting more from Polanco.

[ashbury]

Taking care of business against the weak opponents the schedule has gifted us, should not be confused with being for real. It won't surprise me if they are below .500 at the trade deadline, and yet that might still be enough to be in contention for the Central title.  Or they may continue to whale against the bad teams and breeze to first place.  It still won't mean success against a quality opponent in the postseason. That's my benchmark for being for real, and right now I don't see it.

[rwilfong86]

15 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, if their starting pitching falls off (which is kind of has started to) and the offense doesn't get healthy real, real fast, things could get ugly. I don't think the team is for real without Buxton, Correa, Arraez and Polanco playing at least as expected.

But the real question IMO is can they get healthy and finish the last 20 games of this month, around 14-6? if not, I am not sure how the make the playoffs. The Yanks, Blue Jays, Rays, White Sox, Angles and Astros seems like teams that would go at least that against this schedule.

Plenty of winnable games on the schedule for sure and winning each series will keep their momentum going.

[wsnydes]

As @ashbury said, just because the team is taking advantage of the weak schedule, that doesn't mean that they're for real.  I'm not quite as pessimistic as he is, but I'm also a realist.  I think "real" is relative.  Given the division, they should be favored to win it.  I even upped my expected win total on the season largely because of how bad the division is.  But that doesn't make them a legitimate and real contender.  

I said before the season that this team will go as far as the young guys will take it.  The young pitchers have stepped up so far, but they've shown chinks in the armor too.  The young bats have done a decent job overall, but still need plenty of work as exhibited by last night.  The Kershaw's and Verlander's of the baseball world are what they'll be facing in the playoffs almost every day.

[JDubs]

2 hours ago, Dave Overlund said:

The watchability of this team is off the charts IMO.

That's the important part to me -- there's a lot that could go wrong with this team, especially with the pitching, but damned if they aren't just entertaining. I'd love some postseason success, but the fact that I'm excited to turn on the game pretty much every night is about all you can really ask for with a baseball team

[Muppet]

I know baseball has changed. But can anybody imagine a team before 2000 that had a player as fast as Buxton who didn't even try to steal bases? Stealing bases does so much more than just advance a runner. It constrains the defense, throws off the pitcher, sparks offense, and excites crowds.

[wsnydes]

11 minutes ago, Muppet said:

I know baseball has changed. But can anybody imagine a team before 2000 that had a player as fast as Buxton who didn't even try to steal bases? Stealing bases does so much more than just advance a runner. It constrains the defense, throws off the pitcher, sparks offense, and excites crowds.

Whitey Herzog, is that you?

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Taking care of business against the weak opponents the schedule has gifted us, should not be confused with being for real. It won't surprise me if they are below .500 at the trade deadline, and yet that might still be enough to be in contention for the Central title.  Or they may continue to whale against the bad teams and breeze to first place.  It still won't mean success against a quality opponent in the postseason. That's my benchmark for being for real, and right now I don't see it.

This is pretty much where I'm at, but I'd be surprised if they were under .500 at the deadline. 18 straight against Oakland, Detroit, and KC to close this month. If the Reds weren't looking to break the all time record for losses that trio would be in the running for the title of "worst in baseball." Unless Cleveland really gives the Twins a rough time, or MN collapses, there are just too many games against terrible teams to give up the ground they've already made. 

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

This is pretty much where I'm at, but I'd be surprised if they were under .500 at the deadline. 18 straight against Oakland, Detroit, and KC to close this month. If the Reds weren't looking to break the all time record for losses that trio would be in the running for the title of "worst in baseball." Unless Cleveland really gives the Twins a rough time, or MN collapses, there are just too many games against terrible teams to give up the ground they've already made. 

No question, they've banked some wins they have to have.  I don't know how certainly that pattern of winning can carry forward.  This roster is constructed to give hope and then dash it via a bunch of "aw shucky durn, the injury bug has hit" outcomes.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, wsnydes said:

As @ashbury said, just because the team is taking advantage of the weak schedule, that doesn't mean that they're for real.  I'm not quite as pessimistic as he is, but I'm also a realist.  I think "real" is relative.  Given the division, they should be favored to win it.  I even upped my expected win total on the season largely because of how bad the division is.  But that doesn't make them a legitimate and real contender.  

I said before the season that this team will go as far as the young guys will take it.  The young pitchers have stepped up so far, but they've shown chinks in the armor too.  The young bats have done a decent job overall, but still need plenty of work as exhibited by last night.  The Kershaw's and Verlander's of the baseball world are what they'll be facing in the playoffs almost every day.

They beat Tampa 2 out of 3 and helped bury the ChiSox.  They didn't fare well against the Dodgers but there were a lot of weird circumstances there too.  Basically, they can only play who they play.  This is what the AL is....a couple challenges and mostly cupcakes.

This team is winning while missing Correa, Buxton, Arraez, Sano, Bundy, Gray, Ober, Kiriloff, Alcala etc.  I don't know if they're for real, but it's real that they have done one helluva job 20% of the way in with the circumstances.

[KirbyDome89]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

No question, they've banked some wins they have to have.  I don't know how certainly that pattern of winning can carry forward.  This roster is constructed to give hope and then dash it via a bunch of "aw shucky durn, the injury bug has hit" outcomes.

Fair, I wouldn't be altogether shocked if they found themselves in that position due to injury, ineffectiveness, or just plain old regression. 

[Muppet]

26 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Whitey Herzog, is that you?

Absolutely. I grew up on the 80's Cardinals. Though that is one extreme of running and small ball, I think that the Twins are losing out on a big potential to increase their game by outright ignoring that side of things. Sano is tied for first with stolen bases. For a team that is in the top 5% of GIDP, it is not much of a risk to try to swipe a few. 

[TheLeviathan]

3 minutes ago, Muppet said:

Absolutely. I grew up on the 80's Cardinals. Though that is one extreme of running and small ball, I think that the Twins are losing out on a big potential to increase their game by outright ignoring that side of things. Sano is tied for first with stolen bases. For a team that is in the top 5% of GIDP, it is not much of a risk to try to swipe a few. 

Please correct me if I'm wrong because I don't get to watch a lot of full games.....but it sure seems to me that they are running more than last year?

Or is that just because "more" than "never" is a pretty low bar?

[wsnydes]

16 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

They beat Tampa 2 out of 3 and helped bury the ChiSox.  They didn't fare well against the Dodgers but there were a lot of weird circumstances there too.  Basically, they can only play who they play.  This is what the AL is....a couple challenges and mostly cupcakes.

This team is winning while missing Correa, Buxton, Arraez, Sano, Bundy, Gray, Ober, Kiriloff, Alcala etc.  I don't know if they're for real, but it's real that they have done one helluva job 20% of the way in with the circumstances.

Not entirely sure whether you're kind of agreeing, kind of disagreeing, both or neither? 

I agree that they can only play those teams that are on their schedule, but that's not what makes them real or not.  You've mentioned 9 of their 30 games.  I also agree that they've done a pretty nice job cobbling together a lineup and winning with it.  But that's part of taking advantage of a weak schedule in my book.  And they're doing that, but I'm not convinced that that makes them real either.

[KFEY93]

4 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

The AL is weaker than I thought so this is a playoff team - which is what we should have demanded anyway. I don't think we're going to make much noise in the playoffs but making the playoffs is much better than not making the playoffs.

Know whats even better? Getting to a WS or maybe even..hey..winning another one? That should be the goal, not just squeaking into the play offs and getting smacked around. Thats what the Vikings do, I dont need two teams doing that to me year in and year out. .500 is and always will be mediocre, and not along term goal. 

[jgfellows]

If I had my druthers, this would still be the team I want to see on the field

[KFEY93]

56 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

This is pretty much where I'm at, but I'd be surprised if they were under .500 at the deadline. 18 straight against Oakland, Detroit, and KC to close this month. If the Reds weren't looking to break the all time record for losses that trio would be in the running for the title of "worst in baseball." Unless Cleveland really gives the Twins a rough time, or MN collapses, there are just too many games against terrible teams to give up the ground they've already made. 

Agreed 100%

[mikelink45]

51 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

They beat Tampa 2 out of 3 and helped bury the ChiSox.  They didn't fare well against the Dodgers but there were a lot of weird circumstances there too.  Basically, they can only play who they play.  This is what the AL is....a couple challenges and mostly cupcakes.

This team is winning while missing Correa, Buxton, Arraez, Sano, Bundy, Gray, Ober, Kiriloff, Alcala etc.  I don't know if they're for real, but it's real that they have done one helluva job 20% of the way in with the circumstances.

Beating Tampa was good, Although after getting no-hit they do not look as good as I expected. But I will give you them as a good team we beat, but the White Sox at that point were without too many key players and were not playing well so I do not accept them as a Good Team that we beat - let's check out the next series with them.

[Yawn Gardenhose]

Twins record vs teams better than .500 = 5-3

Doubters love to look at a team's record against winning teams, but the Twins are one of only three teams better than .500 versus winning teams. That can be a tricky stat. Some teams go back and forth over that line. For instance, the Twins are 3-0 versus the White Sox, who are precisely .500 when I'm writing this. If they win one more game, the Twins' record improves to 8-3, which is even better.

 

This is not correct. With the loss last night, the Twins are 5-4 against teams better than .500. This *includes* the 3-0 against the White Sox, who are currently 15-14. If they drop to .500, that record would be 2-4. The only series so far against current winning teams are 0-2 vs Dodgers, 2-1 vs. Rays, 3-0 vs White Sox, 0-1 vs. Astros. 

The Charmin-soft AL Central-loaded schedule has always worked against the Twins historically when they were competitive. In 2019 they won 100 games and were 5 games below .500 versus teams with .500 or better records. Their record deludes the team into thinking that they don't need to add significant pieces at the deadline. That mentality results in things like thinking it's a sensible idea to start a cab driver on the mound at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs.