Have Twins found their 4th outfiedler?

[Eicemann]

On 5/9/2022 at 11:01 AM, Squirrel said:

I never had doubts. My only concern was getting him playing time, so wasn't sure he wouldn't have benefited being in AAA, but, on that I was wrong. Given how he was performing in AAA the latter half of last season, I really balked at suggestions that we needed to go outside and sign a starting-calibre CF to be our 4th outfielder, or go outside to sign anyone. Now the trouble is going to be when everyone gets healthy, who goes down?

Can we please pump the brakes a bit on Celestino?  He hit .136 in 59 AB (8 hits) last season.  He has had all of 37 AB this season - 4 hits in April & 8 hits so far in May.  That's a .208 BA in 96 career AB. 

I'm rooting for the kid, but it's much too soon to conclude that he has "made it."  I do feel better about him playing when Buxton is unavailable than I did last year.  But I still think it was risky to start the season without a reserve OF who has some track record of success.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

37 minutes ago, Eicemann said:

Can we please pump the brakes a bit on Celestino?  He hit .136 in 59 AB (8 hits) last season.  He has had all of 37 AB this season - 4 hits in April & 8 hits so far in May.  That's a .208 BA in 96 career AB. 

I'm rooting for the kid, but it's much too soon to conclude that he has "made it."  I do feel better about him playing when Buxton is unavailable than I did last year.  But I still think it was risky to start the season without a reserve OF who has some track record of success.

I think it’s time to mash the accelerator on my Celestino fandom

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, wabene said:

@Shmoeman Being a stepdad is quite the tapdance sometimes, lol. As a pro myself, I applaud your work. Larnach looks like he's having fun out there this year. He has come with a plan, which I think includes more of his natural center left power stroke. It is good to have many approaches in a lineup. His reach will add to his middling explosiveness, he did rob a homer this year although he dropped it, which effectively expands his range. Now he's showing the arm even though some had said he did not have a strong arm. Even Gleeman and Bonnes are getting into the act saying Lewis' arm isn't that strong. I disagree, Lewis has really fired the ball from what I've seen. Our last two guys at short, Simmons and Correa have absolute cannons, but I wouldn't count it Lewis yet either.

Was waiting for the I played card. I played too. 3 years D1 I'll even name drop. Played with Curt Young. Pretty good pitcher. So I know good players vs avg players vs bad players. 

[Squirrel]

17 hours ago, Eicemann said:

Can we please pump the brakes a bit on Celestino?  He hit .136 in 59 AB (8 hits) last season.  He has had all of 37 AB this season - 4 hits in April & 8 hits so far in May.  That's a .208 BA in 96 career AB. 

I'm rooting for the kid, but it's much too soon to conclude that he has "made it."  I do feel better about him playing when Buxton is unavailable than I did last year.  But I still think it was risky to start the season without a reserve OF who has some track record of success.

You are only citing his MLB numbers, and not supplying any context. First, he was called up essentially from AA before he was ready because of necessity due to injury. There was good reason he wasn’t good last year when he made his first appearance in the majors. Many take time to adjust when they are ready, let alone someone who isn’t, as Celestino was last year. It’s why he spent the rest of the season in AAA with not another call up. But what he did in AAA after he went down was very good and showed he could learn and adjust, had good potential, and was much more ready this year. Second, pump the breaks on what? I’m not declaring him the next coming to Mike Trout or Buxton or the like. I said he is doing great as a 4th outfielder. There were lots of calls on this board that we needed to outside the org to hire a starting-caliber outfielder to fill our 4th outfield role. That, so far, has been proven, imo, to have been the incorrect thing to do and I applaud the Twins for not doing that. However, in another month, I could be proven wrong, but whether or not Celestino continues to do well in the OF, he has shown us his potential there. Lastly, why do posters only supply offensive stats when talking about a player? I’m suggesting Celestino has filled the role of 4th outfielder defensively as well. 

[Major League Ready]

On 5/9/2022 at 9:12 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

Larnach is the 3rd OF/DH, Krilloff or Miranda is the odd man out. Larnach is hitting .313/.351/.48 (.813), and that's after having a couple of home run balls die 400 feet out and being caught. Celestino is hitting .324/.390/.405 (.795). Those numbers may drop over time but even a 5-10% drop leaves both players hitting well. By contrast, Kirilloff is hitting  .091/.130/.091 (..221) and looks even worse than that at the plate. When Laranch comes back and he should play every day in LF or as the DH. Celestino should play 2 days a week in LF and 2 days in CF to give Buxton half days off whiel he sits or DHs. Celestino is definitely the 4th OF and looking good at it so far. Garlick may be the 5th OF/RH DH or bench bat although that limits the play time for the excess IF guys. 

The next question who goes Arraez and Garlick are ready to play. Godoy is first back to AAA and I suspect that Kirilloff is next. Arreaz and Miranda can play 1B and Kirlloff adds no defensive value in LF and can't hit right now. The big question is when Correa is ready to goo every day, where does that leave Lewis? Does he stay in the bigs and play 3B with an occasional day at SS? What about Ursehela?  Is it better to send Lewis to AAA to play SS every day so he's ready for next season? Hard to do when he looks ready now. If he stays, what happens to Gordon? There's room to keep 4 of Garlick, Miranda, Gordon, Lewis and Kirilloff on the 26 man roster until Sano comes back. Right now I think it's pretty clear that on performance the guy that goes down is Kirilloff, with Mirnada not far behind, unless they're not wiling to bench Urshela for Lewis or want him on the field every day playing SS some where (like AAA).  I'd really like to see Lewis get a nice long 40 plus game look playing every day even if that means that Urshela watches from the bench or DHs.  

You ask a lot of good questions.  Garlick is quite valuable against LH pitching.  I believe they can keep 5 outfielders (Buxton / Kepler / Larnach / Celestio / Garlick) given they have versatility with Urshela  / Miranda / Polanco / Arraez / Kirilloff and Gordon for the infield.  Kirilloff probably stays because the infield has less depth.  They could send Kirilloff down and put Lewis on the bench.  However, Lewis needs to be playing SS everyday.  Sacrificing his development right now would be very short sighted.  The probability of Correa being here next year is very low.  Preparing Lewis to take that spot should be the priority,  Plus, we already have 4  guys that can play 2nd and 3rd, 5 guys if you count Gordon.   

The key here is Kirilloff IMO.  Miranda / Urshella / Kirilloff and Arraez would be a nice combo covering 1B & 3B and we really need Miranda to step up and take over 3B permanently.  They will need to address 1B if Kirilloff does not step-up.  2nd is covered with Polanco / Arraez / Miranda / Urshela and SS covered with Correa and Gordon in the short-term.   Gordon is viable Post Correa but Martin would be better in that role if he is adequate to play SS in a back-up role for 10-12 games/year.  IDK If that's possible with Steer but he would be great in that role if he is adequate to back-up SS.  He might be a guy that could play all 4 infield positions.

[stringer bell]

41 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

You are only citing his MLB numbers, and not supplying any context. First, he was called up essentially from AA before he was ready because of necessity due to injury. There was good reason he wasn’t good last year when he made his first appearance in the majors. Many take time to adjust when they are ready, let alone someone who isn’t, as Celestino was last year. It’s why he spent the rest of the season in AAA with not another call up. But what he did in AAA after he went down was very good and showed he could learn and adjust, had good potential, and was much more ready this year. Second, pump the breaks on what? I’m not declaring him the next coming to Mike Trout or Buxton or the like. I said he is doing great as a 4th outfielder. There were lots of calls on this board that we needed to outside the org to hire a starting-caliber outfielder to fill our 4th outfield role. That, so far, has been proven, imo, to have been the incorrect thing to do and I applaud the Twins for not doing that. However, in another month, I could be proven wrong, but whether or not Celestino continues to do well in the OF, he has shown us his potential there. Lastly, why do posters only supply offensive stats when talking about a player? I’m suggesting Celestino has filled the role of 4th outfielder defensively as well. 

I mostly agree. However, despite making a number of running catches, I'm not sure that Celestino is doing that well in the field. He seems to have misjudged a number of balls and seems to get late jumps far too often. He's found holes with balls put in play and his BABIP might be unsustainable, but he isn't striking out much and has hit the ball hard fairly frequently. To me, it is a mixed bag which will be sorted out by a larger sample size. 

[Squirrel]

43 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I mostly agree. However, despite making a number of running catches, I'm not sure that Celestino is doing that well in the field. He seems to have misjudged a number of balls and seems to get late jumps far too often. He's found holes with balls put in play and his BABIP might be unsustainable, but he isn't striking out much and has hit the ball hard fairly frequently. To me, it is a mixed bag which will be sorted out by a larger sample size. 

Yeah, that's fair. Partly why, at the beginning of the season, I wanted him in AAA to get more every day work. He's still adjusting. But I think he has done a very good job as the 4th OF. My major point, however, I still think is correct ... we didn't need to go outside the org to hire anyone else when others were suggesting that we needed a starting-calbre CF as our 4th OF, at least I didn't think so. But, the bottom line, which is always the bottom line in these discussions ... Buxton's health. 

[baul0010]

On 5/9/2022 at 11:39 AM, Rosterman said:

Well suddenly looks like Kepler could be the 4th guy by season's end, if Larnach AND Celestino continue to put up numbers. Kirilloff was the first base candidate for the future. Miranda is in the mix. 

But with DH as a rotating spot for the likes of Arraez, Sanchez, Miranda, Kepler, Celestino and even Gordon, Twins seem to be getting pretty set for the future. Of course, there's always the next season.

That is exactly what I was thinking.  I have heard a couple folks talk about how he wasn't a top prospect so him being a 4th outfielder could be very good for him.  Why pigeon hole him into that role?  MLB is full of not top prospects succeeding.  If Celestino can do this over 500 AB's instead of 300 AB's, let's him keep rolling.  

Kepler has had one good season.  I'd prefer him as the 4th outfielder and only batting against righties.  

 

[AceWrigley]

Larnach looks more comfortable in the field this year, and those 3 assists so far look good on the resume.

[Schmoeman5]

Trade Larnach to Toronto and bring Berrios back to Minnesota 

[4twinsJA]

Celestino looks like a starter against LH pitchers, resting Larnach (when back) or Kepler. When Buxton is back, Buxton will probably have a day off a week and DH once a week. Celestino late inning defensive replacement for Larnach, so should get plenty of playing time, maybe more than a traditional 4th OF. I did not agree with the posters in the offseason calling for acquiring an experienced 4th OF, to me that just translates to acquiring a player on the decline hoping to get one or two more years in the league. I would rather see that playing time given to developing young talent.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

Celestino looks like a starter against LH pitchers, resting Larnach (when back) or Kepler. When Buxton is back, Buxton will probably have a day off a week and DH once a week. Celestino late inning defensive replacement for Larnach, so should get plenty of playing time, maybe more than a traditional 4th OF. I did not agree with the posters in the offseason calling for acquiring an experienced 4th OF, to me that just translates to acquiring a player on the decline hoping to get one or two more years in the league. I would rather see that playing time given to developing young talent.

They can learn in AAA, not be a hole in a Major league game.

[Schmoeman5]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

They can learn in AAA, not be a hole in a Major league game.

Trade Larnach to Oakland for Montas

[bean5302]

Celestino reminds me a bit of the veteran version of Denard Span after he lost a step. Quite frankly, I believe Celestino will be good enough to start every day and he may be able to cover center field more adequately than Kepler at this point.

All that said, sample sizes this year are way too small to draw conclusions on whether or not Celestino and Larnach have adapted.

[yeahyabetcha]

I am ok with Celestino as the 4th outfielder, but he has been getting too much playing time lately.  Buxton needs to start playing more if the Twins are going to keep winning.

[jorgenswest]

On 5/9/2022 at 9:39 AM, Rosterman said:

Well suddenly looks like Kepler could be the 4th guy by season's end, if Larnach AND Celestino continue to put up numbers. Kirilloff was the first base candidate for the future. Miranda is in the mix. 

But with DH as a rotating spot for the likes of Arraez, Sanchez, Miranda, Kepler, Celestino and even Gordon, Twins seem to be getting pretty set for the future. Of course, there's always the next season.

I look to statcast and I see more encouraging batted ball data from Kepler than Larnach. I would trust that batted ball data much more to project forward than in season triple slash stats. Kepler’s profile is very different in a positive direction than his data last year.

[stringer bell]

22 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I look to statcast and I see more encouraging batted ball data from Kepler than Larnach. I would trust that batted ball data much more to project forward than in season triple slash stats. Kepler’s profile is very different in a positive direction than his data last year.

I agree that Kepler looks much better this year and would expect the batted ball data to back that up. Larnach's batted ball data isn't radically improved? To the point of whether Kepler will be supplanted this year, I sincerely doubt it. In particular, he's a fine fielder and a decent base runner, in addition to showing a lot of improvement with his hitting. Larnach has shown enough to get regular playing time when he returns (hopefully soon) and to date Celestino has shown he belongs as well, in a smaller sample.