Is It Time to Start Worrying About Austin Martin?

[Trov]

14 hours ago, Jham said:

Of course I'm worried. I'm very worried he can't hit. His .400 obp is driven by walks. MLB pitchers don't walk guys, let alone guys who can't hit for power. He's 23. Not young for a top prospect. Looks like a glove first utility guy at this point.

Not a great haul for Machina unless the power comes.

Your comment assumes that when he gets to MLB teams will just throw it right down the middle knowing it is unlikely he will hit HR.  First, we do not know, unless you have been watching him, I just assume you have not, what kind of pitches he has seen and how he does on them.  Maybe because he is one of better hitters at top of lineup he is getting pitched around with not much to really swing at.  I liken him to Luis Arraez, I assume you must not think much of him as he does not hit for power either and teams do not walk him much, but he still has a career 375 OBP.  

Second, Martin was not the only one in the Berrios trade and the other guy has yet to give up a run in 21 innings pitched in AA this year.  

[High heat]

17 hours ago, Jham said:

Of course I'm worried. I'm very worried he can't hit. His .400 obp is driven by walks. MLB pitchers don't walk guys, let alone guys who can't hit for power. He's 23. Not young for a top prospect. Looks like a glove first utility guy at this point.

Not a great haul for Machina unless the power comes.

Arraez doesn’t get walked?  Are pitchers scared of his power?  
A week ago we’re you calling Correa one of the worst hitters overall in the majors? He was hitting .155 with 1 extra base hit?  Oh how a week can change numbers and views early!!!

just like prospects hitting .400 early and having 5 6 hrs shouldn’t be called up after April panic should ensue going the other way as well 

[Jham]

On 5/6/2022 at 2:36 PM, Trov said:

Your comment assumes that when he gets to MLB teams will just throw it right down the middle knowing it is unlikely he will hit HR.  First, we do not know, unless you have been watching him, I just assume you have not, what kind of pitches he has seen and how he does on them.  Maybe because he is one of better hitters at top of lineup he is getting pitched around with not much to really swing at.  I liken him to Luis Arraez, I assume you must not think much of him as he does not hit for power either and teams do not walk him much, but he still has a career 375 OBP.  

Second, Martin was not the only one in the Berrios trade and the other guy has yet to give up a run in 21 innings pitched in AA this year.  

I love Arraez. I love watching him play, but I think I'd expect more than that for Berrios.

Despite being the hardest player to strike out in all of baseball (7% of ab) and hitting .300, he has a negative WAR this year, He's pulling more and higher fly ball pct too. So even Arraez is less Arraez. 

Arraez never got under .300 in the minors. Martin never over .300. Arraez hits for average. Martin not at all. Not comparable, imo. 

[nova_twins]

Brutal thread.

Let's start here: Martin's drop in prospect status happened before the Twins made the trade. If he was tracking like a star, Toronto never would have dealt him. The public prospect lists take time to catch up. Berrios had value, but not as much as a number of TD posters seem to think.

Next, player development is not a linear process, and it can take time. Miranda struggled for years with making hard contact. Lewis' overly aggressive swing took years to tone down. 

As with other prospects that later had breakouts, Martin has some strong MLB-caliber tools, including contact ability and plate discipline. Historically, hitters with better contact ability in the minors are more likely to become big leaguers. Also, Martin is 13/13 in stolen bases so far this year, and has the speed to be, at absolute worst, a decent corner outfielder.

Obviously, Martin isn't going to succeed (even in AA) without hitting the ball harder. If it was an easy fix, it would already have happened. But this is quite literally Martin's job and the Twins' coaches' job. Maybe the swing will get fixed, maybe it won't . . . nothing has changed in that regard. 

That's particularly true given that his college career was disrupted by covid and he's played the rough equivalent of one full minor league season. The Twins knew Martin needed work when they acquired him, and . . . they're working on it. We'll see. 

[TheLeviathan]

I'm old enough to remember when "Austin Martin" was spelled "Royce Lewis" in this cut and paste article...

[Major League Ready]

22 hours ago, Jham said:

I love Arraez. I love watching him play, but I think I'd expect more than that for Berrios.

Despite being the hardest player to strike out in all of baseball (7% of ab) and hitting .300, he has a negative WAR this year, He's pulling more and higher fly ball pct too. So even Arraez is less Arraez. 

Arraez never got under .300 in the minors. Martin never over .300. Arraez hits for average. Martin not at all. Not comparable, imo. 

Given Arraez has always had a very low slugging percentage it makes more sense to compare their Milb OPS which is about the same.  Martin has additional value in speed / base running and defense.  There is also still a chance Martin develops some power.  He hit his 1st HR of the season today.

I don't understand the Berrios for Martin comment. They also got SWR so they obviously did get much more than Martin for Berrios.  Most of the national reporters seemed to suggest SWR and Martin was a very hefty return for Berrios. 

BTW ... Berrios has an ERA over 5 and a negative WAR.  Of course, it's very early to make too much if these early results but we have six starters doing better than Berrios at this point of the year.

[Jham]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Given Arraez has always had a very low slugging percentage it makes more sense to compare their Milb OPS which is about the same.  Martin has additional value in speed / base running and defense.  There is also still a chance Martin develops some power.  He hit his 1st HR of the season today.

I don't understand the Berrios for Martin comment. They also got SWR so they obviously did get much more than Martin for Berrios.  Most of the national reporters seemed to suggest SWR and Martin was a very hefty return for Berrios. 

BTW ... Berrios has an ERA over 5 and a negative WAR.  Of course, it's very early to make too much if these early results but we have six starters doing better than Berrios at this point of the year.

Not gonna lie, the argumentative nature of this site turns me off sometimes. I stopped posting for awhile because of it. The premise of the article is "are you worried about Austin Martin". My answer was "Yes. I'm worried that at 23, he can't hit."

It turned into some debate about Arraez who absolutely can hitb for average vs Martin who at this time, hasn't hit for average or power. And about SWR's value in the Berrios deal (like he was even close to Martin on prospect lists). If you want to disagree with me, at least pick on things I actually said.

I went on to say that he's a likely big league utility guy. Nothing wrong with that. But he was THE key piece of a major trade AND or no. 1 prospect heading into the season. From that standpoint, I'm worried. 

It doesn't get easier to hit as you climb levels, and it frequently gets much harder to walk as you gave fewer guys with serious command issues. I feel like I'm being fairly objective. 

Maybe it's just semantics of what "worried" means?

If he's Nick Gordon in 3 years, is that good or bad? 

Going for him, it's much easier to go from contact to power than the other way around. I haven't seen him play. But I question his contact skills as well given the low averages and high bbs. I'm not giving up on him, I just think some concern is warranted. 

[TwinsDr2021]

On 5/6/2022 at 2:36 PM, Trov said:

  I liken him to Luis Arraez, I assume you must not think much of him as he does not hit for power either and teams do not walk him much, but he still has a career 375 OBP.  

 

Arraez hit .334 in the majors at age 22, Martin is 23 in AA.

Don't get me wrong I have high, high hopes for Martin, and I believe he should have a better career than Arraez, but at this point, at this point in time and I will repeat again at this point he isn't close to Arraez or where Arraez was at the same age. It is unfair to Arraez to compare Martin to him.

Besides being the 5th pick in the draft and starting his minor league career at AA, he hasn't done much but steal a few bases and take a bunch of walks. I hope that changes starting today!

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, Jham said:

Not gonna lie, the argumentative nature of this site turns me off sometimes. I stopped posting for awhile because of it. The premise of the article is "are you worried about Austin Martin". My answer was "Yes. I'm worried that at 23, he can't hit."

It turned into some debate about Arraez who absolutely can hitb for average vs Martin who at this time, hasn't hit for average or power. And about SWR's value in the Berrios deal (like he was even close to Martin on prospect lists). If you want to disagree with me, at least pick on things I actually said.

I went on to say that he's a likely big league utility guy. Nothing wrong with that. But he was THE key piece of a major trade AND or no. 1 prospect heading into the season. From that standpoint, I'm worried. 

It doesn't get easier to hit as you climb levels, and it frequently gets much harder to walk as you gave fewer guys with serious command issues. I feel like I'm being fairly objective. 

Maybe it's just semantics of what "worried" means?

If he's Nick Gordon in 3 years, is that good or bad? 

Going for him, it's much easier to go from contact to power than the other way around. I haven't seen him play. But I question his contact skills as well given the low averages and high bbs. I'm not giving up on him, I just think some concern is warranted. 

I share your concern and that he looks like a utility player (a good one) if his power does not improve.  I simply don't agree that batting average is a good way to compare players.  In this case it ignores that they have roughly the same OBP and OPS.  It also ignores that Martin is a much better athlete that can steal bases or be a pinch runner.  It also ignores that Martin is likely to be a better defender as a product of his superior athleticism.

You are also assuming the Twins FO thought martin was the more valuable piece of the trade because he was higher on  prospect lists.  It is quite possible they believed SWR was the more valuable prospect.  What if SWR turns out to be every bit as good as Berrios and Martin eventually produces the same OBP with a little more power than Arraez while providing bases stealing and better defensive value?

[Jham]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I share your concern and that he looks like a utility player (a good one) if his power does not improve.  I simply don't agree that batting average is a good way to compare players.  In this case it ignores that they have roughly the same OBP and OPS.  It also ignores that Martin is a much better athlete that can steal bases or be a pinch runner.  It also ignores that Martin is likely to be a better defender as a product of his superior athleticism.

You are also assuming the Twins FO thought martin was the more valuable piece of the trade because he was higher on  prospect lists.  It is quite possible they believed SWR was the more valuable prospect.  What if SWR turns out to be every bit as good as Berrios and Martin eventually produces the same OBP with a little more power than Arraez while providing bases stealing and better defensive value?

This isn't about SWR. He's promissing, no doubt. I'm encouraged there. Concerned with Martin. Martin is a top 10 first-rounder with college pedigree who appears to be struggling to hit for power or average. 

I'm concerned despite Arraez' success with similar ops because 1) Arraez is the single hardest player to strike out in all of baseball and has drawn a fair amount of walks while maintaining a high batting average. IE more balanced approach. (Compare with Tortuga). 2) I do not believe Martin's obp is sustainable as he advances because pitchers have better control. 

Martin's talent and college success gives reason for optimism that further development will occur. But his minor league record is concerning at this point, from a top prospect standpoint.

 

[RpR]

I never worry or am concerned with any players results but I do have some sympathy for those who either simply do not have the mind set for the majors, or are surrounded by too many players a bit better so they become a bouncing ball type player going up and down from Minors to Majors their whole career.

If he makes it , good for him; if not, que sera, sera.

[chpettit19]

This is the fun/challenge of prospects right here. Martin is attempting to change his approach to hitting and his swing on the fly at AA. That presents a challenge to judging him based on his stats. I was disappointed to see his ST swing look exactly like his swing from last year. I was hoping he'd come in with some changes already made, but he didn't appear to change much of anything in his power reducing swing from last season. His swings now are looking different. He's more upright and has a more prototypical power swing. Is he able to tie it all together and be a high average and decent to solid power bat in the bigs? Only time will tell.

But judging him off his numbers now is difficult. Arraez has never, and will never, be a guy who's changing his swing drastically to attempt to get to more power. He's a high average, low power hitter through and through. So of course he's had better averages. Martin is working on changing his swing and approach. If he were sticking with being a high average, low power hitter and kept his super crouched, punch it to right field swing and approach and all he was trying to do this year was hit for a high average and he was failing I'd be concerned. That's not what he's trying to do, though. We're trying to judge a kid in the middle of his adjustments. Hard to get a good read on his future just by looking at his numbers when he's at this point. That swing yesterday was incredibly encouraging, but that was just 1 swing and doesn't at all mean he's adjusted and found a new swing. Lots of work to be done still. We should worry about him the same way we worry about every other prospect until he reaches the majors and establishes himself. But I don't think judging things simply based on his numbers is a good route to take at this point.

[Trov]

On 5/7/2022 at 7:25 PM, Jham said:

I love Arraez. I love watching him play, but I think I'd expect more than that for Berrios.

Despite being the hardest player to strike out in all of baseball (7% of ab) and hitting .300, he has a negative WAR this year, He's pulling more and higher fly ball pct too. So even Arraez is less Arraez. 

Arraez never got under .300 in the minors. Martin never over .300. Arraez hits for average. Martin not at all. Not comparable, imo. 

Martin has played just over a full season in the minors.  To cast him as complete as a player is a little early.  Jose Miranda did not hit for much power until last year.  Kirby Puckett was not a power hitting guy until age 26 year. Jose Altuve was not a power guy until he hit double digit HR at age 25 season.  Martin is still young and could develop power.  It is very hard to teach the ability to take pitches and work counts, it is much easier to learn to hit for more power.  Will he, not sure, but I would bet if he gets pitched down the middle fast balls all day he will make MLB pitchers pay for that.  

Also, again he was not the only player in the Berrios trade.  I would also note Berrios is not doing all to well so far this season. 

[Jham]

7 hours ago, Trov said:

Martin has played just over a full season in the minors.  To cast him as complete as a player is a little early.  Jose Miranda did not hit for much power until last year.  Kirby Puckett was not a power hitting guy until age 26 year. Jose Altuve was not a power guy until he hit double digit HR at age 25 season.  Martin is still young and could develop power.  It is very hard to teach the ability to take pitches and work counts, it is much easier to learn to hit for more power.  Will he, not sure, but I would bet if he gets pitched down the middle fast balls all day he will make MLB pitchers pay for that.  

Also, again he was not the only player in the Berrios trade.  I would also note Berrios is not doing all to well so far this season. 

This is sooooo annoying. I've never ever cast him as a complete player. I said I was concerned that at 23 he isn't hitting for average or power. Puckett, Arraez, Altuve... All hit for high average. None were walk machines.

Guys with great contact skills don't walk much typically. I dunno. It's not like I'm giving up on him.