Twins Daily 2022 Draft Coverage, May 5

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Moments after last week’s article went live, the biggest draft bombshell of the spring dropped. Later in the week, the two most popular websites that cover the draft posted their newest mock drafts. All of that and more are covered in this week’s Draft Report.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel dropped the tweet heard ‘round the draft world last Wednesday afternoon when he announced that prep pitcher Dylan Lesko would be undergoing Tommy John surgery. Shortly after that, all of the other outlets confirmed the unfortunate news. 

While it’s not clear how this will impact the top of the draft, it definitely adds to the uncertainty. I’ll take a deeper dive into the rash of pitching injuries in an upcoming episode of From Lee to Limestone.

Baseball America dropped their mock prior to the Lesko news; while MLB Pipeline’s came out shortly after.

Baseball America predicts the Twins to select Gavin Cross, an outfielder from Virginia Tech, and pass on Jacob Berry, Jackson Holliday, and Daniel Susac, who I have ranked higher. But the profile fits and it wouldn’t be a reach as BA’s Carlos Collazo says that in another draft class, it wouldn’t be surprising “for a player like Cross to be a top-five pick.” And based on how the Twins have drafted in the past, taking someone with a “very strong offensive profile” and “tons of power” wouldn’t be shocking. I get a Trevor Larnach on offense/Max Kepler on defense type of feeling with Cross.

MLB Pipeline goes a different direction and has the Twins passing on Cross (and Susac and Lesko) and taking Jacob Berry, a corner player from LSU. Berry is definitely going to be in the mix with this pick. It’s noteworthy, though, that Jonathan Mayo says that he’s getting a “slight ‘unenthusiastic’ vibe from some scouting directors” about Berry. Berry has a similar profile to Cross on the offensive side, though his ceiling to hit for average, power, and overall as a switch-hitter is higher. Much bigger questions remain about his defensive home. You’ll read plenty that he’s listed as a third baseman, but that’s very generous. You might see him listed as an outfielder, and that’s hopeful. But the reality is guys like this usually end up at first base (or DH). So the bat really needs to play.

Regardless, the Twins will have options. It was announced that the 8th overall pick will have a slot value of $5,439,500. The second-round pick will have a value of $1,621,900 and the Twins comp round B pick will have a value of $1,001,500. Overall, they’ll have the 12th biggest pool at just over $10 million. Additionally, it appears that the Twins will forfeit their third-round pick, not their comp pick, for signing Carlos Correa. (This must have changed since signing Ervin Santana.) That’s a difference of 19 picks and just short of $300K (or the equivalent of a sixth-round slot).

JEREMY’S TOP 10 PROSPECTS
The news on Lesko sends him down the list; while the trajectory of Jackson Holliday continues to trend upward.

1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit)

2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep

3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.)

4.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly (previously: 5)

5.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech (previously: 7)

6.) Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep (Oklahoma State commit) (previously: 10)

7.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU (previously: 6)

8.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech

9.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) (previously: 4)

10.) Andrew Susac, C, Arizona (previously: 9)

MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS

• Baseball America - v3.0 (4/28/22) / (v2.0 (4/1/22) /  v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 300 (4/27/22) / Staff Draft v.1.0 (4/20/22)
• MLB.com - Mock Draft (4/27/22) / Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 150 (4/25/22)
• The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22)
• ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) / Draft Rankings 2.0 (4/27/22)
• Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) 
• Prospects Live - v2.0 (4/21/22) / v1.0 (1/4/22) 
• Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22)
• My MLB Draft (1/18/22)

 

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[Tim]

Curious if the Twins have considered Kumar Rocker. His situation is interesting and I wonder if a discounted deal (Boars) could be struck .. Clearly they have a good relationship in some capacity (Correa)

[MN_ExPat]

16 minutes ago, Tim said:

Curious if the Twins have considered Kumar Rocker. His situation is interesting and I wonder if a discounted deal could be struck .. Clearly they have a good relationship in some capacity (Correa)

Interesting thought, but I can't help but wonder if many teams may be a little shy about spending a high pick on him given how last year played out.  I'd bet that many if not most teams are interested, just to what degree remains to be seen.

Just to be clear, I think he is a good pitcher, just not sure how good at the pro level he will be ?‍♂️.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

Curious if the Twins have considered Kumar Rocker. His situation is interesting and I wonder if a discounted deal (Boars) could be struck .. Clearly they have a good relationship in some capacity (Correa)

It'd be an awfully impressive move to go from being drafted 10th overall to not signing because of physical concerns to not playing for a year (to my knowledge he still isn't playing anywhere, but maybe I missed a story on that) to being drafted 8th overall. I'd love Kumar in the second, but taking him 8th would be pretty frustrating.

[Tim]

53 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It'd be an awfully impressive move to go from being drafted 10th overall to not signing because of physical concerns to not playing for a year (to my knowledge he still isn't playing anywhere, but maybe I missed a story on that) to being drafted 8th overall. I'd love Kumar in the second, but taking him 8th would be pretty frustrating.

I think this years draft presents a unique opportunity to really capitalize on elite pitching talent. So many guys are recovering from TJ or going under the knife soon. Taking a risk and signing below slot value to try and nab 2 elite pitching prospects within the first few rounds seems like a pretty sweet gamble.

If you could walk away from the draft with 2 of Rocker, Lesko, Prielipp, Hughes, Pallette, Whisenhunt or Tidwell, it's a massive W.

[TwinsAce]

@Jeremy Nygaard - What are your thoughts on Cam Collier?  I see Keith Law just dropped his top 100 board and has him ranked second, although obviously not a mock draft.  Would you expect Cam to be in the running for the top 10 and the Twins pick?  (Sorry if you have mentioned him before.)

Looks like Cross is ranked 9th by Law, but Berry is down at 23 due to no future position despite a top 10 bat.

https://theathletic.com/3291481/2022/05/05/mlb-draft-prospects-ranking-druw-jones/

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Tim said:

I think this years draft presents a unique opportunity to really capitalize on elite pitching talent. So many guys are recovering from TJ or going under the knife soon. Taking a risk and signing below slot value to try and nab 2 elite pitching prospects within the first few rounds seems like a pretty sweet gamble.

If you could walk away from the draft with 2 of Rocker, Lesko, Prielipp, Hughes, Pallette, or Tidwell, it's a massive W.

It's an interesting situation, right? I certainly don't think that's a bad strategy. It's not the way I'd go as I want more "certainty" (there's no such thing in a draft, but relative certainty) with a top 10 pick. I'd rather take a supreme, up the middle positional talent at the top over an arm. I just think it's harder to find a Byron Buxton type later in the draft (Mike Trout being the obvious counterpoint there). 

I wouldn't be mad or call for Falvine's collective heads if they follow the strategy you laid out. It certainly has merits. I wouldn't predict it, though, as they believe it's easier to find successful arms outside the top of the draft (which I agree with) than it is to find difference making bats. I think they need to work on their process for picking which bats to take early, but I think the overall strategy is sound. Jackson Holliday is the kid I want (with a realistic chance of being around at #8) as of today. I just think that the plan is to not be in the top 10 again for years and a positional superstar is worth more than a pitching ace so I want to take my chance at an up-the-middle star when I'm this high. Now if there's nothing but corner bats available at 8 I change my strategy and a Lesko type becomes a possibility, but if there's a potential star SS, CF, or C available I'm taking them.

[Doctor Gast]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's an interesting situation, right? I certainly don't think that's a bad strategy. It's not the way I'd go as I want more "certainty" (there's no such thing in a draft, but relative certainty) with a top 10 pick. I'd rather take a supreme, up the middle positional talent at the top over an arm. I just think it's harder to find a Byron Buxton type later in the draft (Mike Trout being the obvious counterpoint there). 

I wouldn't be mad or call for Falvine's collective heads if they follow the strategy you laid out. It certainly has merits. I wouldn't predict it, though, as they believe it's easier to find successful arms outside the top of the draft (which I agree with) than it is to find difference making bats. I think they need to work on their process for picking which bats to take early, but I think the overall strategy is sound. Jackson Holliday is the kid I want (with a realistic chance of being around at #8) as of today. I just think that the plan is to not be in the top 10 again for years and a positional superstar is worth more than a pitching ace so I want to take my chance at an up-the-middle star when I'm this high. Now if there's nothing but corner bats available at 8 I change my strategy and a Lesko type becomes a possibility, but if there's a potential star SS, CF, or C available I'm taking them.

Holliday(SS) would be my 1st choice and if he's not available then I'd hope for Susac(C), We have enough corner OFs/ 1B/ DH types, I'd certainly would want to go there 1st round.

[Tim]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

It's an interesting situation, right? I certainly don't think that's a bad strategy. It's not the way I'd go as I want more "certainty" (there's no such thing in a draft, but relative certainty) with a top 10 pick. I'd rather take a supreme, up the middle positional talent at the top over an arm. I just think it's harder to find a Byron Buxton type later in the draft (Mike Trout being the obvious counterpoint there). 

I wouldn't be mad or call for Falvine's collective heads if they follow the strategy you laid out. It certainly has merits. I wouldn't predict it, though, as they believe it's easier to find successful arms outside the top of the draft (which I agree with) than it is to find difference making bats. I think they need to work on their process for picking which bats to take early, but I think the overall strategy is sound. Jackson Holliday is the kid I want (with a realistic chance of being around at #8) as of today. I just think that the plan is to not be in the top 10 again for years and a positional superstar is worth more than a pitching ace so I want to take my chance at an up-the-middle star when I'm this high. Now if there's nothing but corner bats available at 8 I change my strategy and a Lesko type becomes a possibility, but if there's a potential star SS, CF, or C available I'm taking them.

Yeah I absolutely agree with you in that the current regime clearly has a strict blueprint for the 1st round.

I could see teams following what the Pirates and Orioles did last year and "reaching" with a college bat in the top 10 well below slot value to take the gamble in later rounds. That hypothetically could cause one of the prep bats to fall.

Though more highly regarded, I look at the Dylan Lesko situation much like JT Ginn's in 2019. Mets took him in the 2nd for about 3mil , TJ was the issue.

I think taking Lesko or Rocker at #8 and offering something like 3.5 - 4 mil is an interesting concept. Even if they don't end up signing, you get the #9 pick next year, plus the opportunity to buy value in the following rounds.

[nicksaviking]

Jones, Lee, Holliday and Lee are the most interesting bats to me. Assuming they're all gone when the Twins select, I'd probably be most interested in rolling the dice with Lesko.

[2wins87]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

It'd be an awfully impressive move to go from being drafted 10th overall to not signing because of physical concerns to not playing for a year (to my knowledge he still isn't playing anywhere, but maybe I missed a story on that) to being drafted 8th overall. I'd love Kumar in the second, but taking him 8th would be pretty frustrating.

He was supposedly finalizing a deal with an independent league team last week.  Of course every team will be attending his starts once he starts pitching but I'd be pretty surprised if the Twins had a ton of interest in him compared to other teams.  So far college pitching appears to be this front office's least likely type when it comes to first round picks.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

He was supposedly finalizing a deal with an independent league team last week.  Of course every team will be attending his starts once he starts pitching but I'd be pretty surprised if the Twins had a ton of interest in him compared to other teams.  So far college pitching appears to be this front office's least likely type when it comes to first round picks.

Good info! Thanks for sharing! Will be interested to see what he looks like for the couple months he has left before the draft. Been an interesting last year+ for him.

[Tiantwindup]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

Yeah I absolutely agree with you in that the current regime clearly has a strict blueprint for the 1st round.

I could see teams following what the Pirates and Orioles did last year and "reaching" with a college bat in the top 10 well below slot value to take the gamble in later rounds. That hypothetically could cause one of the prep bats to fall.

Though more highly regarded, I look at the Dylan Lesko situation much like JT Ginn's in 2019. Mets took him in the 2nd for about 3mil , TJ was the issue.

I think taking Lesko or Rocker at #8 and offering something like 3.5 - 4 mil is an interesting concept. Even if they don't end up signing, you get the #9 pick next year, plus the opportunity to buy value in the following rounds.

If they don’t sign you also lose the ability to apply value to later rounds. 

[Tim]

1 hour ago, Tiantwindup said:

If they don’t sign you also lose the ability to apply value to later rounds. 

or you just take the risk and bank on the fact collegiate pitchers coming off TJ dont have a ton of options

[Jeremy Nygaard]

22 hours ago, Tim said:

Curious if the Twins have considered Kumar Rocker. His situation is interesting and I wonder if a discounted deal (Boars) could be struck .. Clearly they have a good relationship in some capacity (Correa)

Lots of Rocker stuff in the comments. I think all teams are in the same boat with him... and it's the wait-and-see boat.

If teams get to see him throw (and throw well) a few times before the draft and if he goes through a pre-draft medical check that is clean, there's no reason to believe he can't be the first pitcher taken.

But those are big "ifs" and if those boxes aren't checked, there's no telling how far he could fall.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

20 hours ago, TwinsAce said:

@Jeremy Nygaard - What are your thoughts on Cam Collier?  I see Keith Law just dropped his top 100 board and has him ranked second, although obviously not a mock draft.  Would you expect Cam to be in the running for the top 10 and the Twins pick?  (Sorry if you have mentioned him before.)

Looks like Cross is ranked 9th by Law, but Berry is down at 23 due to no future position despite a top 10 bat.

https://theathletic.com/3291481/2022/05/05/mlb-draft-prospects-ranking-druw-jones/

Collier is definitely a name to watch and Chipola is a place the Twins know well. 

I'll do some checking and report back if I hear anything of interest.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

20 hours ago, Tim said:

I think this years draft presents a unique opportunity to really capitalize on elite pitching talent. So many guys are recovering from TJ or going under the knife soon. Taking a risk and signing below slot value to try and nab 2 elite pitching prospects within the first few rounds seems like a pretty sweet gamble.

If you could walk away from the draft with 2 of Rocker, Lesko, Prielipp, Hughes, Pallette, Whisenhunt or Tidwell, it's a massive W.

I don't think it will work that way, if I'm understanding what you're saying correctly. The injured guys slide because they're injured and their perceived value is usually greater than slot value... so they won't come as a discount. 

If you're suggesting taking guys early that can help you bank money to pay those guys more later, that - I think - could be a possibility.

It's what the Royals did when they drafted Hunter Dozier and paid him a million under slot. Then they turned around and drafted an injured Sean Manaea and paid him two million over slot (as the 34th pick). Basically they insured themself if Manaea wouldn't sign, knowing they were banking money on Dozier either way.