What is this rotation going to look like at the all-star break?

[cHawk]

The Twins rotation, a great question mark coming into the season, has surpassed the expectations of many. However, a rotation may change throughout the year. Some starters may fall off, others might find a place in the rotation and settle in. At the all-star break, this is what I think the rotation will look like:

1. Joe Ryan
2. Sonny Gray
3. Chris Paddack
4. Chris Archer
5. Josh Winder/Bailey Ober/Dylan Bundy

[wabene]

My 2¢:

Joe Ryan 

Sonny Gray 

Chris Paddack

Bailey Ober

Chris Archer/Josh Winder

I don't want to be cruel but in a wins based competitive business there are hard decisions to be made. DFA Bundy. After 15 earned runs in 2 starts Mr Bundy should not be trusted for precious starts as we go for wins.

 

Right now it appears Archer is lacking stamina, that is why I have him paired with Winder. Yes Winder looked so good many would have him bumping Ober, but Ober has a track record that dictates Winder having to do more to gain ground.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, wabene said:

My 2¢:

Joe Ryan 

Sonny Gray 

Chris Paddack

Bailey Ober

Chris Archer/Josh Winder

I don't want to be cruel but in a wins based competitive business there are hard decisions to be made. DFA Bundy. After 15 earned runs in 2 starts Mr Bundy should not be trusted for precious starts as we go for wins.

 

Right now it appears Archer is lacking stamina, that is why I have him paired with Winder. Yes Winder looked so good many would have him bumping Ober, but Ober has a track record that dictates Winder having to do more to gain ground.

 

I would be very surprised to see them DFA Bundy before the end of May. Especially with Gray still not back. He's definitely the guy I bump from the rotation when Gray comes back and Ober coming back maybe knocks him off the team entirely, but I'd think after his first 3 starts he's earned the chance to rebound in another start before Gray returns. He certainly wasn't good last night, but the defense didn't do him many favors either.

As for the rotation come All Star break (injuries not withstanding) I'd guess it'd look like this:
Ryan
Gray
Ober
Paddack
Archer

No idea what they're going to do with innings limits for the young guys, but right now I'd guess Winder is not a rotation regular as they limit his innings throughout the year. Those are the 5 I think they're willing to give the most innings to so I'd guess they're the rotation regulars while Winder, et al fill in with spot starts.

[Puckett34]

Ryan

Grey

Paddack

Winder

Archer/Ober/Dobnack/Smeltzer/Bundy? Probably Archer if he can consistently go 5+ innings giving up 3-4 runs.

[Blyleven2011]

If Bundy's last two starts are any indication  , Last night being his worst ...

He won't be in the rotation  , archer is still a question mark but is pitching in the mid 90's  ,,, they just are not turning him loose yet as he builds up stamina due to late signing and short spring training 

[Vanimal46]

Concur with everyone here that Bundy will likely be the odd man out by the AS break, if not sooner. Gotta hope Bundy’s decent until June 1 then Gray will be fully ramped up. By middle of July, Sands will probably be in the mix after several more AAA starts, perhaps Balazovic flies up the system as well once his rehab assignment is over. 

[CRF]

Let's see...J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Homer Bailey, Rich Hill, and Lewis Thorpe. WAIT...WHAT? That must be the alternative universe nightmare I had last night after seeing Bundy out there. How about Ryan, Gray, Paddack, Ober, and Archer. Winder could be there instead of Archer, After seeing Bundy's last two starts, I think he's a possible DFA down the road...especially if he does another flop sweat special. 

[Brandon]

1 Ryan

2 Gray

3 Winder

4 Archer

5 Paddack

6 Winder

7 Woods-Richardson

8 Bundy

9 Balazovich 

10 Dobnak/ Smeltzer

cause we will need more than 5 starters the rest of the season.  

[Squirrel]

4 minutes ago, Brandon said:

1 Ryan

2 Gray

3 Winder

4 Archer

5 Paddack

6 Winder

7 Woods-Richardson

8 Bundy

9 Balazovich 

10 Dobnak/ Smeltzer

cause we will need more than 5 starters the rest of the season.  

FYI, you have Winder twice and Ober none … were one of those Winders meant to be Ober? Maybe the first one?

[Brandon]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

FYI, you have Winder twice and Ober none … we’re one of those Winders meant to be Ober?

Yep #3

[Sean.h]

Ryan, Gray, Ober, Winder, Paddack are the top 5 in my view. Occasional spot starts from Archer, Bundy, or one of the young studs in the minors

[Sean.h]

By the way, Archer could be a real asset in the bullpen in shorter stints. He seems to have trouble getting through the order a second time.

[4twinsJA]

I could see keeping Winder as swing man at #6, hard to see where Bundy fits in after Gray and Ober return.

[mikelink45]

I do not know what to expect, but I know what I want -

Ryan

Gray

Winder

Paddack

Ober

Archer to the BP, Bundy ?? 

No one who is not producing should be in the rotation.  Injury can't be predicted and I hope Gray stays healthy.  Next up from minors - Cano for the BP, maybe Canterino too.

[nicksaviking]

32 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

FYI, you have Winder twice and Ober none … were one of those Winders meant to be Ober? Maybe the first one?

Winder is just that good.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them continue with a 6 man rotation though. It's been working well. I don't think Bundy was ever destined to last but Ryan, Grey, Ober, Paddack, Winder and Archer still seem to work. Even if they stick with a 6 man rotation, I'd still like to see Sands get another run and Woods-Richardson should get a look if he keep cruising. With the team managing Archer's innings more than the other arms, I think he'd be a great candidate for the pen, even if he's pitching well in the rotation. My thought at the beginning of the year was that Archer and his slider could end up being a fantastic late inning option.

[Tim]

1. Ryan

2. Gray

3. Paddack

4. Winder

5. Archer

I'd anticipate a deadline move in some capacity when we get to that point. Montas or Eovaldi are guys that intrigue me the most. When the Angels collapse as they typically do, I'd be all over Syndergaard. I love Mahle as well.

That's not even factoring in Maeda potentially being an asset come August or September!

Oh, and ask the Sox about JD Martinez as well.

[Major League Ready]

I think we will see the continued use of a 6 man rotation in order to limit innings.  Ryan / Gray / Paddack / Winder / Ober / Archer for now.  Sands probably gets introduced in the same manner as Winder but he might end up a multi-inning RP.  I could see Duran / Jax and Sands all getting more than 1 inning at a time in half their appearances.  The big question is who is the next to earn their way onto the rotation.  It sure would be great to see Balazovic deliver on his potential like Duran.  I expect one of Canterino / SWR and Balazovic to force their way on the team.  However, I doubt the push SWR that quickly.  Canterino seems the most likely unless Balazovic bounces back in a big way.

What's the deal with Enlow?  He is on the 7 day IL but has not played this year.  Is he really going to be back in a few days?  Enlow getting back on track would be great too.  A couple of these guys could be valuable BP arms.   

 

[Rosterman]

Is the leash on vets going to be as long as it was for Happ and Shoemaker?

Of course, I worry more about where the Twins will be and what the rotation will look like going into August. Remember that Ryan, Winder, Ober are not booked as workhorses.

Of course, will we be seeing more of Sands, and Balazovic by then? Is Smeltzer a probably? Anyone wonder about Dobnak?

But, again, you just can't send WInder, Ryan and Ober down to the minors to rest unless you have roster spots to replace them. And you can't just pitch them in the bullpen...who do you rid yourself of?

We all hope the Twins are playing the same ball as we enter the final week of July and they MUST go after a workhorse (Grienke). 

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Is the leash on vets going to be as long as it was for Happ and Shoemaker?

 

Of course, I worry more about where the Twins will be and what the rotation will look like going into August. Remember that Ryan, Winder, Ober are not booked as workhorses.

 

Of course, will we be seeing more of Sands, and Balazovic by then? Is Smeltzer a probably? Anyone wonder about Dobnak?

 

But, again, you just can't send WInder, Ryan and Ober down to the minors to rest unless you have roster spots to replace them. And you can't just pitch them in the bullpen...who do you rid yourself of?

 

We all hope the Twins are playing the same ball as we enter the final week of July and they MUST go after a workhorse (Grienke). 

With the young guys performing, and more on the farm pushing their way up, I don't see the vets having long leashes. Because of those new young starters, I also don't see any need to go back to the Dobnak/Smeltzer experiments either. Those guys just don't miss bats and this team doesn't need to cross their fingers with the smoke-and-mirror pitchers like they have in the past.

If the Twins MUST pick up a workhorse starting pitcher, I'd not want it to be Greinke. His inability to keep the ball out of play is going to catch up to him real soon. His ERA is fine, but those strikeout numbers would make a Dead Ball Era pitcher laugh. I'd much rather keep going with the young guys. Shoot significantly higher than Greinke, or stay the course.

[Mike Sixel]

the leash was long last year because they had no options (I hope that is why).

I never trusted the Bundy signing, so I'm hoping he's not a starter again....and I agree with many, there will be a 6 man rotation when they are all healthy. 

[MMMordabito]

Not necessarily what I think will happen, but I agree with comments about the six-man rotation.

Gray has started 30 or more games only once since 2015.  Archer hasn't been a workhorse since 2017.   Bundy has really struggled the last couple times out.  After that, you have all the young guys.  I won't be surprised if even the smallest ailment lands starters on the IL from time to time.  That seems to be what was done with Ober. His "probably the right move on a cold day" comment made me think so anyway.

After the ASB:

1) Ryan

2) Winder

3) Gray

4) Paddack

5) Ober

6) Archer

That's my call.

Any one of those six could be on the IL and replaced by Bundy, or they go down to a five-man during that time.

[terrydactyls]

I'll jump in with:

1. Ryan

2. Gray 

3. Over 

4. Winder 

5. Woods-Richardson 

6. Sands

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mill1634]

Cheating a bit and going to the trade deadline...assuming health on everyone.

Ryan

Trade

Gray

Ober

Paddack

Archer to the bullpen as a multi-inning RP, Bundy to DFA

Winder will certainly fit in somewhere as he's the 6th guy and someone will surely be injured. Kenta also fits in somewhere, although I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins work him as a reliever for 2022.

[dxpavelka]

23 hours ago, wabene said:

My 2¢:

Joe Ryan 

Sonny Gray 

Chris Paddack

Bailey Ober

Chris Archer/Josh Winder

I don't want to be cruel but in a wins based competitive business there are hard decisions to be made. DFA Bundy. After 15 earned runs in 2 starts Mr Bundy should not be trusted for precious starts as we go for wins.

 

Right now it appears Archer is lacking stamina, that is why I have him paired with Winder. Yes Winder looked so good many would have him bumping Ober, but Ober has a track record that dictates Winder having to do more to gain ground.

MIGHT want to give as much weight to the three good starts as to the two bad ones.  Just sayin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[wabene]

28 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

 

"MIGHT want to give as much weight to the three good starts as to the two bad ones. Just sayin"

Yeah I get that, but in those three starts he didn't miss a lot of bats and it just looked like an unsustainable tap dance to me. For Bundy to succeed with his stuff he would have to pitch very well with good command and also not get rattled if there are misplays or cheap hits. He seemed to get rattled to me.

[rwilfong86]

On 5/5/2022 at 8:51 AM, Blyleven2011 said:

If Bundy's last two starts are any indication  , Last night being his worst ...

He won't be in the rotation  , archer is still a question mark but is pitching in the mid 90's  ,,, they just are not turning him loose yet as he builds up stamina due to late signing and short spring training 

To Bundy's credit the defense behind him the other night didn't help him at all so we shouldn't be so quick to DFA the guy or demote him. 

[howeda7]

Ryan

Gray

Ober

Paddock

Winder/Archer (I suspect he will be hurt/in the bullpen by then though.)

[gman]

Pretty sure Buddy tested positive for covid the day of or after his last start. He probably shouldn't have been out there at all.

[dxpavelka]

On 5/6/2022 at 8:00 AM, wabene said:

"MIGHT want to give as much weight to the three good starts as to the two bad ones. Just sayin"

Yeah I get that, but in those three starts he didn't miss a lot of bats and it just looked like an unsustainable tap dance to me. For Bundy to succeed with his stuff he would have to pitch very well with good command and also not get rattled if there are misplays or cheap hits. He seemed to get rattled to me.

"to succeed with his stuff he would have to pitch very well with good command and also not get rattled if there are misplays or cheap hits"  would seem to apply to every pitcher.  Some do, some don't, some will, some won't.  Nobody will every time out.

[jorgenswest]

It is early to project future performance based on the sample. Only Bundy and Ryan have faced over 100 batters. Once they get to the 150-200 range xERA and xFIP will be more useful but they are they best indicators we have early in the season. 

xERA from Statcast is taken from xWOBA which includes things like launch angle and exit velocity. Here are the ranks.

2.66 Paddack, 2.95 Ryan, 3.03 Winder, 3.39 Bundy, 5.26 Archer, 5.39 Ober

xFIP use things like strikeout and walk rate which also stabilize early.

2.90 Winder, 3.19 Paddack, 3.46 Bundy, 3.72 Ryan, 4.19 Archer, 4.44 Ober

I would be looking at those numbers in 3-4 more starts.