The calendar has turned to May, @Vanimal46 is calling me out, and the Twins are winning.  What more could be asked for?

So, now the team is 24 games into the season and have a 4 game lead in the division.  How has your outlook on wins changed, if at all?

This is a follow-up poll from one conducted just before the season started.  If you posted there, I'm interested to see if you changed your mind, and why.

I had them pegged at no better than 79 wins.  I'm now at 90+ through 24 games, which really isn't a lot.  But two things have become apparent.  The starting pitching has been much more solid than I had anticipated, the bullpen has actually done a pretty decent job, and the division is much worse than I figured that it would be.  

The obvious disclaimer that I keep hinting at is that we're only 24 games in.  There is still plenty of time for injuries to really take their toll on the pitching, but even the holes that have crept up have been filled pretty well.  There is also still plenty of time for the White Sox to quit suffering from a Twins 2021-esque season and really make a run.  

So, I think more wins than I thought before, and selected the 80-89 choice. Then I went back to the original poll to see how I voted … and I voted the same way. But I think before I thought maybe 80 wins would be about right … more like 78-82 … just at .500 or not quite. But now I think we’ll be over .500 but at 85-89 wins. I still worry about the BP and starting pitching through an entire season, but am also hoping what we are seeing with a certain meshing and gelling will carry is over any dips in the road. Unquantifiable intangibles I think are a thing.

I'm holding onto my original predication on April 4th.

92 wins. I get this correct every year and nobody ever believes me. Geez.....

I was on the low end of the original poll, so I'm curious if others like me have adjusted expectations and why.  I also wonder how many in the upper win total predictions have changed their minds one way or another.

I had them 80-84.  Now, 88-90.  Why?  Some of the changes feel sustainable.  I was not sure of what to expect from Duran but now health is the only thing that seems like could stop him.  The depth of the starting rotation was not expected.  Adding Paddack and Winder looking so good should keep the starting pitching strong even if even lose a starter or two for a stretch.  Of course, Bundy looking so good helps but I am not sold he will sustain a high level of play. Jax is another guy who looks like he could be for real.  Many speculated he would benefit from moving to the BP and that feels like a reasonable bet.  All these net gains make it easy to see a path to 88-90 wins.

We are also getting more offensive production from Kepler and Jeffers than expected.  Hard to say if they will sustain this production but they are both are looking good and have played at this level in the past.  Kepler finally going opposite field with success will make him much more productive as the shift took a lot of hits from him.  Larnach seems to have improved significantly in handling breaking balls so his improvement seems sustainable as well.  Now, the icing on the cake would be Polanco getting back on track and that seems reasonable probable.  

I don’t expect the SP to remain this good but that’s still a lot of net gain in both pitching and offense that should translate to a good season.   I would look even better if Alcala and Kirilloff come back strong.   Urshela has been pretty good but I would love to see a productive Kirilloff at 1B and Miranda starting a long run a 3B.
 

They look new and improved  and playing great ball the past dozen  games  ,, still small concerns  on starting pitching ( we have depth )   .... bullpen is the biggest concern  where we are not competitive enough ( not alot of depth )  ,,,

Bullpens win games ....

Twins will win games through the season  but playoffs come down to pitching ( studs , aces and bulldogs  ) 

I'm thinking somewhere in the upper 80's.

 

Also:

I had the Twins around 10 games under 500 in the first poll. I felt that the starting pitching didn’t have the depth to last the season and the rotation would unravel as the season progresses.

i now went 80-89, Winder’s first start and how Rocco/Levine have managed innings and Il stints through the first 24 games gives me more confidence that the doldrums of august won’t have as many starts by quad-a gap fillers as I had originally feared.

I am much more optimistic than the beginning of the season.

Initially, I had them somewhere in the low 80s, just over .500.

Now that prediction is in the low 90s. This team is only going to get better as the season progresses; my concerns were primarily what would happen in April and May and those concerns are all but gone. I think this team wins the division and if they don't, it'll be a close race between two good 90+ win teams.

My prediction on this site and to friends/family was 84-80. I'm far less worried about the rotation now. There's quite a bit of depth, and even if/when the starters regress some, the offense is going to score more runs. The only hole I see is 1-2 good bullpen arms to supplement who is there, and that's easy to get at the deadline. 

Big factor is health of Buxton and Correa, obviously. White Sox are going to turn it around eventually but now I think 92ish wins is realistic. 

13 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I had the Twins around 10 games under 500 in the first poll. I felt that the starting pitching didn’t have the depth to last the season and the rotation would unravel as the season progresses.

i now went 80-89, Winder’s first start and how Rocco/Levine have managed innings and Il stints through the first 24 games gives me more confidence that the doldrums of august won’t have as many starts by quad-a gap fillers as I had originally feared.

I am much more optimistic than the beginning of the season.

What 2-3 teams in the AL central finish ahead of the Twins then? Cle and CWS? You think the Royals or Tigers are better than the Twins? Just curious. CWS looks great on paper but they're both banged up and playing like hot garbage. CWS has a negative 20 run differential already, which is better than detroit and KC. The division is bad. 

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Initially, I had them somewhere in the low 80s, just over .500.

Now that prediction is in the low 90s. This team is only going to get better as the season progresses; my concerns were primarily what would happen in April and May and those concerns are all but gone. I think this team wins the division and if they don't, it'll be a close race between two good 90+ win teams.

I basically had them a few games below .500 for similar reasons.

I remain concerned about the overall pitching depth, but the young guys that have stepped up have given me more confidence in them.  And this division...woof...

I had them at 78-84 earlier. Now I think it's more like the reverse, 88-74. I like the team and the pitching is so much better than I expected, especially the starting pitching. SO why not 90+? Depth. We jus don't have a lot of depth. I think we are going to have pitching issues when one or all of the following happens - Bundy and/or Archer start to pitch like last year and significantly regress, Ryan, Ober and/or Winder hit innings limits of around 125-140 and have to be shut down or rested, the bullpen implodes, Kepler, Sano and/or Urshela regress to their former hitting selves and Miranda isn't ready to fill in the gap, Buxton gets hurt, etc....

Botom line - good but not great team, makes the playoffs, wins some playoff games, maybe even a wild card series, but falls in the second round. 

52 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

What 2-3 teams in the AL central finish ahead of the Twins then? Cle and CWS? You think the Royals or Tigers are better than the Twins? Just curious. CWS looks great on paper but they're both banged up and playing like hot garbage. CWS has a negative 20 run differential already, which is better than detroit and KC. The division is bad. 

You’re right, the division is bad, I did not make a prediction on where the Twins would finish standings wise, but I probably would’ve put them 2-3 range pre-season, now 1-2.

it’s possible to win the division under .500. I don’t think that’ll happen, but 90 wins isn’t some magical milestone.

4 hours ago, wsnydes said:

The calendar has turned to May, @Vanimal46 is calling me out, and the Twins are winning.  What more could be asked for?

So, now the team is 24 games into the season and have a 4 game lead in the division.  How has your outlook on wins changed, if at all?

This is a follow-up poll from one conducted just before the season started.  If you posted there, I'm interested to see if you changed your mind, and why.

I knew you’d be a good sport about it. And of course, positivity is good! I was pretty bullish about over 80 wins in the offseason. If we didn’t give up too early with Correa I felt good about upper 80s. Now I feel very confident about upper 80s wins with upside of 92-95. 

Reasons for the increased confidence:

- Seeing positive results from the pitching prospect pipeline. Duran is a dominating bullpen arm. Joe Ryan is more effective than I expected. Winder, Sands, and the forgotten prospect Balazovic knocking at the door. 

- We’ve shown a knack for cobbling together above average bullpens with spare parts. That can always be improved at the trade deadline as well for minimal costs. 

- I’m more confident now that Correa will be here for the entire season. 

6 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I had them at 78-84 earlier. Now I think it's more like the reverse, 88-74. I like the team and the pitching is so much better than I expected, especially the starting pitching. SO why not 90+? Depth. We jus don't have a lot of depth. I think we are going to have pitching issues when one or all of the following happens - Bundy and/or Archer start to pitch like last year and significantly regress, Ryan, Ober and/or Winder hit innings limits of around 125-140 and have to be shut down or rested, the bullpen implodes, Kepler, Sano and/or Urshela regress to their former hitting selves and Miranda isn't ready to fill in the gap, Buxton gets hurt, etc....

Botom line - good but not great team, makes the playoffs, wins some playoff games, maybe even a wild card series, but falls in the second round. 

While Bundy scares the hell out of me, I'm actually pretty confident in Archer. His fastball is back over 93mph, which is where he should be able to remain a competent pitcher.

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

While Bundy scares the hell out of me, I'm actually pretty confident in Archer. His fastball is back over 93mph, which is where he should be able to remain a competent pitcher.

Agreed, Bundy has been smoke and mirrors and Archer at least looks like he has stuff. However both of them are in danger of their arm falling off. Depth will be tested and so far the pipeline looks more ready than pre-season indications.

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I knew you’d be a good sport about it. And of course, positivity is good! I was pretty bullish about over 80 wins in the offseason. If we didn’t give up too early with Correa I felt good about upper 80s. Now I feel very confident about upper 80s wins with upside of 92-95. 

Reasons for the increased confidence:

- Seeing positive results from the pitching prospect pipeline. Duran is a dominating bullpen arm. Joe Ryan is more effective than I expected. Winder, Sands, and the forgotten prospect Balazovic knocking at the door. 

- We’ve shown a knack for cobbling together above average bullpens with spare parts. That can always be improved at the trade deadline as well for minimal costs. 

- I’m more confident now that Correa will be here for the entire season. 

Nothing like a good natured ribbing!  This is supposed to be fun, after all.

Good call on the pitching being less worrisome that many, myself included, figured they'd be by the way.  I still have my concerns, but I do have more confidence in the pipeline with the way the prospects have performed thus far.  Ryan has been a difference maker in my opinion as well.  I expected good things out of him, but he's exceeded that in my opinion.  Hopefully that keeps up as teams adjust to him.  Winder's one start was inspiring.  I'd like to see Sands more after his rough debut, but I'll give him a pass on that for now.

I expected Kirilloff to step up, which can still happen if he's able to get back, but Larnach and Jeffers have been good at the plate recently.  The FO bet that Jeffers would perform and in this small sample, they've been vindicated in my view.  Much remains to be seen through the remainder of the season though.  But there's plenty of reason for optimism.

1 minute ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed, Bundy has been smoke and mirrors and Archer at least looks like he has stuff. However both of them are in danger of their arm falling off. Depth will be tested and so far the pipeline looks more ready than pre-season indications.

Oh, absolutely, both are large injury risks. But, as you said, the depth looks better than expected and by a lot.

Around 90, which is a few more than I thought. Even if they are .500 (which is what I thought before) the rest of the way, they've already banked 4 extras wins....

I went up from the start of the season, as well they are playing like a team. And with Sano out for a while, I'm even more confident of the Twins approaching 90 wins.

I thought they'd be around .500 before the season. 80-84ish wins probably. I'm now thinking 88-92 wins (went with 90+ in the survey to just put some positive vibes out there). I don't know that my faith in the team over 162 games is much higher than it was before the season, but the rest of the division getting off to such a horrid start is giving them an extra 5-10 wins on it's own I think. They have a stretch against KC and Det coming up that could provide all the extra wins on the season on it's own. Dominate the next month against some pretty bad looking teams and they should be in great position to make a run at 90+ wins.

I thought this was a .500 team. Right now, I'll say 90+. It's hard to look at this team the last few weeks and not think they are a playoff team. They were clearly better than the White Sox and the Rays. While beating up on Baltimore doesn't mean much, at least they are winning games they should.

Right now the staff has a 121 ERA+. That's insane. And our relievers are pitching too much - the starters are in the bottom half of IP in baseball. So there is the potential for a serious pitching collapse. Offensively, the team's depth is getting tested early but Buxton is that good. Correa will come along. This is a good offense. 

Before the season I had them pegged at about 90 losses. That might have been before the lockout ended, I don't remember; certainly all the moves in March changed the calculus a bit.   Anyway I'm thrilled with the wins we have in the bank, but I'm not sure I'm ready to forecast a winning season quite yet.  Aside from Joe Ryan, I think all the arms they are counting on have recent history of injury.  Takes more than a month to see if the staff they've assembled is sound, under whatever constraints our coaching staff puts on them. I still anticipate a spate of, "shucky durn, another injury, we have the worst luck."

Look, everyone who has the Twins still pegged for 65-75 wins this year is just wrong. It's your Minnesota negative (although real) attitudes coming through. Don't confuse your Wild, Vikings and Timberwolves frustrations with the Minnesota Twins.

Unlike our other Minnesota pro teams we do have 2 World Series Championships to boast. We are not destined to be ruined this season. I think we will go a looooong way this year. 

Relax and enjoy the decent April and start of May. We're on a roll baby!

 

I was in the 79-80 wins camp, but I'm up to 81-82 wins.  Splitting in Boston, sweeping Chicago at home and winning at St. Petersburg (Tampa) has me a bit more optimistic.  A 20-Win May would probably have me adjusting again.  The schedule begs that a good team should be able to do that.

Realistically they may be able to win the Central by default since the rest of the Central is awful. I think the White Sox will compete better once healthy, so if they can build a decent lead by June that will help them towards the end of the season. 

15 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

Realistically they may be able to win the Central by default since the rest of the Central is awful. I think the White Sox will compete better once healthy, so if they can build a decent lead by June that will help them towards the end of the season. 

Point is there are 2 parts to winning and losing. How you play and how your opponent plays. So far (and I repeat, so far) Twins have exceeded most expectations and the rest of the Central, against whom most of the schedule lies, is not very good. Hence my prediction has gone from 70-79 wins to 90+.  Still a long way to go but have to go by what you see on the field.

15 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

Realistically they may be able to win the Central by default since the rest of the Central is awful. I think the White Sox will compete better once healthy, so if they can build a decent lead by June that will help them towards the end of the season. 

This is what's got my attention, the division has been awful.  I didn't expect it to be good, but it's worse than I would have imagined so far.  I agree that Sox will be much better when/if they get healthy.