Week in Review: ALL THEY DO IS WIN

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins stretched their winning streak to seven games and then took a short break before returning to business with back-to-back blowouts in Tampa to close out the week.

Let's get caught up with the hottest team in baseball!

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 17 | MIN 5, DET 4: Wild Final Play Extends Win Streak to 5
Game 18 | MIN 5, DET 0: Twins Win Again in Another Great Ryan Start
Game 19 | MIN 7, DET 1: Twins Sweep, Correa Comes Up Clutch
Game 20 | TB 6, MIN 1: Bundy Roughed Up Early, Win Streak Over
Game 21 | MIN 9, TB 1: Garlick Powers Twins to Lopsided Win
Game 22 | MIN 9, TB 3: Winder Dominates, Twins Take Series

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/25 through Sun, 5/1
***
Record Last Week: 5-1 (Overall: 13-9)
Run Differential Last Week: +21 (Overall: +23)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (3.0 GA)

NEWS & NOTES

While on his way to another strong outing on Thursday, with one run allowed through 3 ⅔ against Detroit, Bailey Ober was bothered by discomfort in his groin. He exited and headed to the injured list with what is hopefully a minor groin strain. Cole Sands was called up to replace him on the roster and provide length in the bullpen, and debuted on Sunday.

Outside of that, it was a week mostly filled with relatively minor injuries and precautionary sittings. Gary Sánchez missed a few games due to soreness, but returned to action with no apparent issues. Byron Buxton was scratched on Saturday after suffering a hand contusion on an HBP Friday night. He returned to the lineup on Sunday and homered.

Miguel Sanó played only two games due to knee soreness that first emerged on Tuesday and flared up on Saturday.  He was placed on IL after Sunday's game and replaced on the roster by José Godoy. Meanwhile, they'll also need to soon find room for Alex Kirilloff and Sonny Gray, who are both on the comeback trail in the minors.

HIGHLIGHTS

I'm running out of superlatives for Joe Ryan. Or should I say, Joe Cool? Joe-lan Ryan? What the rookie is doing on the mound has been absolutely incredible for someone of his age and experience level. Calm, cool and collected, he just keeps mowing down opposing lineups.

Most recently he matched a career-high with seven innings of shutout, one-hit ball against the Tigers, striking out nine with one walk as the Twins cruised to a 5-0 victory. Ryan continues to unleash a more balanced mix with heavier usage of the slider, to outstanding effect with opponents batting .185 and slugging .239 against the pitch.

Ryan was very pleased to get some support in that outing from Carlos Correa, who is finally starting to put a slow start behind him. His defense has consistently been stellar but Correa is now beginning to wake up at the plate, with a three-hit, three-RBI game on Thursday snapping the shortstop out of a 4-for-26 slump. He carried his breakout over into the weekend series at Tampa, where he notched seven hits in 13 at-bats with a pair of RBIs and four runs scored.

Joining him in the offensive awakening was Max Kepler, who followed up his strong series against the White Sox with a power display against Detroit, launching three homers and a double with five RBIs to key the lineup. Those three games raised his slugging percentage from .300 to .475, and by week's end it was all the way up to .514 following another strong series at Tropicana (3-for-9, HR, 2B, 4 RBI). 

Another development that simply must be highlighted is the rapid emergence of Griffin Jax in the bullpen. This was always seen as a hopeful possibility, but the weaponization of Jax as a reliever has occurred much more quickly and smoothly than anyone could've expected.

Jax pitched twice in the Detroit series, tossing four scoreless innings with four strikeouts. In five relief appearances he has a 2.00 ERA and 11-to-3 K/BB ratio and 16% swinging strike rate. The elevation of his stuff in shorter stints has made a night-and-day difference. 

Here's a side-by-side look at his Statcast measurables from last year (as a starter) compared to this year. The increases in whiff rate and chase rate are staggering.

Some other noteworthy performances from an absolutely outstanding week for the Twins:

• Josh Winder dazzled in his first major-league start on Sunday. Handed a big early lead, the rookie was workmanlike as he rattled off six shutout innings with seven strikeouts and one walk. He was efficient and in command while mixing a heavy dose of sharp sliders and curveballs with a fastball that averaged 95 MPH. Winder looks phenomenal. 
• Minnesota's new bullpen kingpin made only one appearance on the week, but it was a brilliant one for Jhoan Duran: two perfect innings with three strikeouts in Saturday's blowout win over the Rays. Duran now has an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio through 11 MLB innings.
• Chris Paddack continued to show why the Twins targeted him in a pristine outing on Tuesday against Detroit, hurling 5 ⅔ innings of one-run ball to set the stage for a wild walk-off win. Since struggling in his Twins debut against the Dodgers, Paddack has allowed three runs in 10.2 IP with a 10-to-1 K/BB ratio. 
• Drawing four starts in six games against a lefty-heavy slate, Kyle Garlick showed why he's on the roster and why he gets slotted into the heart of the order against southpaws. He went 3-or-8 with three walks and made all of those hits count, including a pair of home runs against a dealing Shane McClanahan on Saturday. Unfortunately, he came out of Sunday's contest with right calf soreness and may be headed to the shelf.

LOWLIGHTS

Is the clock striking midnight on Caleb Thielbar's cinderella story? He struggled in another outing against Detroit on Tuesday, charged with two earned runs in two-thirds of an inning. It was the third time in seven appearances Thielbar allowed a crooked number, which is not what you like to see from a one-inning reliever. Even after rebounding with a scoreless frame on Saturday, his ERA sits at 12.79 on the season.

Thielbar's stuff has looked okay, and it's evident some bad luck has been at play (for example, Emilio Pagán coming in and immediately giving up a home run to score both runners Thielbar put aboard). Some patience is warranted based on his performance in 2020 and '21. But still: we're talking about a 35-year-old who was out of the majors for four years prior. And roster spots (both 26-man and 40-man) are at a premium for the team right now.

It was otherwise difficult to find many bad performances in such a stellar week of baseball for the Twins. Dylan Bundy hit a speed bump with six earned runs allowed on Friday, but still delivered six innings. A few hitters had quiet runs, but obviously not enough to slow down the offense much overall. 

The Twins are playing clean, consistent baseball, letting their opponents make the mistakes and capitalizing when that happens. Rebounding after a beatdown in the Rays opener to outscore Tampa 18-4 on Saturday and Sunday was a remarkable showing of resilience. The first month of this 2022 season has felt like a polar opposite of 2021.

TRENDING STORYLINE

It's a nice problem to have, especially compared to last year, but the Twins are quickly running into a shortage of roster spots for all the players they'd like to have around. MLB teams must reduce their rosters from 28 to 26 on Monday, and the Twins were already facing a coming crunch with Gray and Kirilloff on their way back from IL. Ober seemingly won't be out long so they also need to plan around his return. 

There's another factor coming into play too: a scorching hot Royce Lewis at Triple-A. He went 7-for-16 last week with a home run, two doubles, two steals, six walks and only three strikeouts. Lewis is absolutely tearing it up in his first real action for more than two years, with a .320/.441/.587 slash line through 21 games in St. Paul. Lewis stated before the season his intention to prove himself ready for the big leagues, and he's doing exactly that.

Obviously there is no short-term opening at shortstop for the Twins, but you wonder if they'll start mixing in some looks at other positions to create a path for him. Showing sharpness at third base or in the outfield corners open one up. This idea is not so much fanciful as it is practical – Lewis is already on the 40-man roster and the Twins could potentially use a right-handed bat with both Garlick and Sanó hurting. (Notably, José Miranda would also be a fit...)

LOOKING AHEAD

With the Rays out of the way, the Twins now rolling into what should – theoretically – be one of their softest stretches of the year. The Orioles and Athletics are barely trying this year so the coming week represents a chance to fatten up before things get considerably tougher with the Astros and Guardians following on the schedule.

On Monday, Paddack is scheduled to face off against old friend Tyler Wells in Baltimore.

MONDAY, 5/2: TWINS @ ORIOLES –  RHP Chris Paddack v. RHP Tyler Wells
TUESDAY, 5/3: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Joe Ryan v. LHP Bruce Zimmermann
WEDNESDAY, 5/4: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Kyle Bradish
THURSDAY, 5/5: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Spenser Watkins
FRIDAY, 5/6: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – LHP Cole Irvin v. RHP Josh Winder
SATURDAY, 5/7: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP James Kaprielian v. RHP Chris Paddack
SUNDAY, 5/8: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Daulton Jefferies v. RHP Joe Ryan

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[railmarshalljon]

Is this team for real? I still have no idea. But they keep winning and that makes me happy. So I hope the winning continues. 

[PatPfund]

I'd rather see Miranda get a shot first (since his 2021 was spectacular, he has more AAA experience, and he actually plays positions of need like 1B). Lewis looks like a future star at SS, and he should be on max innings there instead of being rushed up to play out of position, and hit once in a while.

Larnach looks like he's taking the next step (finally), and with Kepler, Correa, and now Polanco all having their bats wake up, the Twins no longer need to warp their top prospect's development to rush him (or Miranda) up to the bigs. Catcher is back to be the weakest part of the lineup, and that's okay with the rest of the order hitting.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Hooray for Ricky, the screaming rally goat. None of this would have happened without him. Thanks for the great summary of a great week in Twinsville.

[tony&rodney]

Thielbar will come around. I am more concerned with Pagan and Duffey and they are fine for now.

A big positive for this Twins team is their improved defense. Just a pure visual and totally biased observation of mine sees a better defense at C, 2B, SS, LF, CF, and RF this season. 1B and 3B are pretty even and health in CF and RF makes a difference. Correa and Polanco have looked outstanding. Gordon and Celestino bring some speed and defense to the team. Celestino and Gordon are still improving on routes but their speed helps them cover inexperience. 

[USAFChief]

36 runs scored in 6 games. At least 5 runs scored in 5 of the 6.

That'll work.

[2wins87]

Thielbar's command has been bad, but he's actually throwing harder than ever. Hopefully he can get better control over his new velocity soon. If he does I think he'll be good again.  He has actually still been missing bats and getting mostly weak contact.

Duffey, on the other hand, has continued giving up hard contact all over the place, including today. I'm pretty concerned about him, and I'm also afraid he's going to get a longer leash and more high leverage opportunities because of his history of being good for Baldelli.

[DocBauer]

I've been critical of some of the moves the FO made this off-season, or more to the point, some moves they DIDN'T make this off-season when I felt opportunity was in their favor. And I think that's only fair. If I'm going to be supportive of them, as I have mostly been, I think it's fair to me/us to be critical as well when we see things we either don't like or don't understand. I'd like to think most of us, myself included, are fairly intelligent in our opinions and critiques, But I've always maintained that being an amateur GM doesn't allow me/us all the perspective and information or perspective that those in charge have. And I stand by a few complaints/issues I initially had as a semi-intellegent fan, even though I stated I liked a lot of things about this team. But I have to tip my cap to the FO for what they have done thus far. I know it's a long season,  but just about everything they've done thus far has been SMART.

I can't help but break down a few points as discussed here.

1] The rotation has been crazy good, even with limited IP. Including Bundy's bad Friday, the rotation has what, one or two games that could actually be called "bad"? Can Bundy keep it up? He's never been the ML SP prospect hopes held in store after early injuries, but he's flashed good for some bad teams, and even flashed greatness in 2020 and part of 2021. Has he learned, grown, and been influenced by Johnson and the Twins to "level out" his abilities and just be a solid, quality SP yet again? Early results say yes. But what if it's a mirage for only part of a season? (NOT saying it is!). Then he buys time at the WORST. Archer has been a find! And credit to HIM and his handlers to get healthy and prepared as much as the Twins for taking a shot. He looks as good as he did in his heyday and only needs to continue to ramp up IP over the next few appearances. Paddack has me wondering what is going on in San Diego. Or, again, more to the point, how many kudos do we give to the FO, Johnson, and the rest of the staff to just be better/smarter to see talent and potential and work with it for the best outcome? Because the early returns are very encouraging. Ober has looked as good as last year before his groin issue. Hopefully he's back soon. Winder has looked good out of the pen and then had a tremendous 1st ML start today. Oh, BTW, Ryan looks like one of the top SP in the league so far. What in the world happened to early reports he was FB heavy and deceptive but his secondary stuff was in question? I'm NOT going to anoint him to some title this early in his career, but he's throwing 4 pitches consistently and getting results. 

Maybe the FO and staff are smarter than we thought?

2] I felt the offense had a chance to be very good. There were question marks to be sure. I was most concerned about Jeffers, Sanchez, Urshela and AK, but had hope for ALL 4. Jeffers has been flashing big time and getting in a groove. All I asked for in regard to Sanchez was to actually improve defensively as he claimed to be working on while just hitting .225-.235 with his customary power and .300 OB. Well, he's done that, if not better. Change of scenery? I never realized how good of a glove Urshela had. I can't wait for Miranda to be part of our future! But now I'm looking at how Urshela fits even with Miranda for depth and roster flexibility. AK, IMO, is huge to the future of the lineup as a fixture at 1B, who can still play a solid OF, and be a high quality bat in the middle of the order. I've also believed Larnach could be an important bat but honestly didn't expect him to look this good this soon after he tailed off last season and then lost the rest of 2021 due to injury. He looks like he's ready to stay, so I'm uncertain about AK, when ready, and how the roster looks going forward. And that's a GOOD kind of "trouble" to have to deal with.

But I HAVE to make a special note about Kepler. What is happening with him? He's always been an enigma despite his talent. He's a great RF and good CF who has a good eye and sweet swing who has just never been better than "good" other than 2019. A couple of seasons, milb and MLB, he hit LHP, but other years he just flaild against them. I used to argue he was at least a full year behind other prospects, despite his results, due to his introduction to baseball coming from Germany. But he kept climbing and producing and then 2019 happened. And then he suddenly regressed. Suddenly, now, fully healthy and 29yo, has time, experience, and coaching suddenly taken hold? He's suddenly hitting LH again, and even hitting the ball the other way. Are we seeing a final maturation of Kepler? Man I sure hope so!

3] I understand and yet hate the Twins approach to building a bullpen. For the most part, they've been successful. But at some point, you HAVE to have the arms you can count on. And right now, this is the ONE part of this team and it's success that concerns me. Losing Alcala really hurts. Lewis has been a great addition. Duran looks like a potential stud and difference maker. Pagan has the ability and proven results to be a solid piece, despite a bad outing recently. But right now, despite a strong April and good start to the season, and some good games, we are still "sorting out" the pen. Duffey and Thielbar have the stuff and experience to rebound and be part of a playoff team. But they better figure it out soon. Rosters are going to be reduced soon. And unless something changes, there are a couple of guys at AAA that may force the FO to make a change. Because right now, despite "decent" BP production with a winning record, the BP is the one potential weakness of what could be a legitimate playoff team.

[jimbo92107]

Given the hot performances of Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda in St Paul, I've got to figure Gio Urshela's time in Minnesota could be growing short. Yes, Urshela has proved himself defensively, and yes, he has done some damage with his bat. But Lewis and Miranda look like much better bats, and both are probably good enough to play 3B without costing the team. 

If Urshela does get displaced, I hope it's Miranda. His power bat will play well from the hot corner. Meanwhile, I agree with others that Lewis would be better served playing daily SS for the Saints than riding the pine as a sub for the Twins, or playing out of position at 3rd. 

[JW24]

It has only been one month (Not even since Opening Day was April 7) but this team feels very similar to me to the 2019 team with how they bounce back from losses and the expectation that they will have a chance to win every game they play. Every game has a few different guys stepping up, total team efforts, pitching/hitting/defense all playing well.

I think this next week will be telling. 7 winnable games on the horizon. Hopefully the bats start to heat up with the weather improving. This past week has my expectations high for this team, I am very much looking forward to cheering for a team that has serious playoff aspirations once again.

[Johnny Ringo]

Most cocktail parties are fun an hour in. By midnight, they can be magical or turn ugly. 

They need to figure out first base. Sano seems utterly lost. His move to the "IL" was predictable. The only thing really injured is his OPS. I am an Arraez fan but he is not a corner infielder on a championship team. He is a great bat, tons of watch but is a minus defender everywhere. DH him. Use him off the bench.

Promoting Miranda to third and moving Gio to first intrigues me. Gio is certainly athletic enough to be a better defensive alternative than Sano or Luis. Miranda/Gio has to be accretive to Gio/Arraez or Arraez/Sano.  

But in any case, lets enjoy this!! As the poet Crash Davis said about a winning streak, "they don't happen very often." 

Ps. Good post Doc. 

[Monkeypaws]

A win today would push them over .600. 

[Dman]

While I agree the pen might be a weak spot right now remember they get Maeda back as some point and could ease him back as a pen arm.  They also should get Alcala back as well. If they wanted to they could use one or two of the starters as pen arms in the playoffs so there should be options down the stretch to help the pen if needed.  

There are arms and options for the pen later in the year.

 

[Steve Lein]

1 hour ago, Johnny Ringo said:

Promoting Miranda to third and moving Gio to first intrigues me. 

I think you'd just put Miranda at 1B in this scenario, no reason to move Gio off when he's the much better defender there. Miranda has been playing some 1B this year and last.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Johnny Ringo said:

Most cocktail parties are fun an hour in. By midnight, they can be magical or turn ugly. 

They need to figure out first base. Sano seems utterly lost. His move to the "IL" was predictable.

Let's be clear: this is not a phantom injury. His knee is hurt. He was limping around all week. Hopefully the time off gets him straightened out at the plate, although I continue to believe it was only a matter of time anyway. The dude's xwOBA is .344!

[tony&rodney]

I get some frustration with Sano but we shouldn't question an injury. He is injured. Sano is an important piece if the Twins want to play extra baseball this year. Let's hope he gets squared away in the next couple of weeks.

Arraez is so much fun to watch but Urshela plays strong defense and there have already been a half dozen plays at third base where one can see the importance of defense. Luis will continue to see at bats but he needs to be very productive with line drives because long fly balls won't cut it for him. It is a long season and many players will get opportunities. If someone steps forward with a hot bat and/or glove there will be room in the lineup. We are seeing this right now with Larnach's bat and Urshela's glove.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

A 12 - 9 April is a real achievement, particularly given where we were last year, but also historically.  Relying on memory rather than checking years previous, but  usually this club started slow in the first month, then broke out in May and June in many of their best years.  15% of the season is not enough to tell where the club is going just yet, but they are red hot right now with considerably more upside than down.  It would be fair for critics to say they would have done things differently, but if this success holds, management should get considerable credit for this off-season rebuild.