I… uh… think it may have arrived.

This team may just have gotten really good in a hurry. 

Winder looked really good. His control of his four pitches was impressive, especially how he moved the ball around the zone.

The most impressive thing about the pitching pipeline is that the guys I'd probably consider the top 3 starter prospects in terms of upside (Balazovic, Woods Richardson, and Canterino) haven't yet arrived.

We obviously need to see a half season to a full season before we can feel more confident, but yeah.... it couldn't be going any better for the pitching pipeline currently!

 

Another positive sign is the bullpen options. I'd be getting a bit nervous if I was Duffey or Thielbar since there are a number of potentially good options on the doorstep. Sands, Henriquez, and Moran are all on the 40 man and are pretty much ready for a shot (with Cano and Mason also waiting in the wings). I could even see Canterino getting a callup to the pen this year to limit his innings.

5 minutes ago, twins_89 said:

Another positive sign is the bullpen options. I'd be getting a bit nervous if I was Duffey or Thielbar since there are a number of potentially good options on the doorstep. Sands, Henriquez, Cano, and Moran are all on the 40 man and are pretty much ready for a shot. I could even see Canterino getting a callup to the pen this year to limit his innings.

I can't see Duffey losing a job any time soon, though I pretty much expect him to move down the bullpen hierarchy throughout the season.

7 minutes ago, twins_89 said:

Another positive sign is the bullpen options. I'd be getting a bit nervous if I was Duffey or Thielbar since there are a number of potentially good options on the doorstep. Sands, Henriquez, Cano, and Moran are all on the 40 man and are pretty much ready for a shot. I could even see Canterino getting a callup to the pen this year to limit his innings.

Even more ready, IMHO, are three RPs who are not on the 40-man. Minaya, Cotton, and Smeltzer all have MLB experience, and all are pitching better this year then Sands, Henriquez, and Moran (and more to the point better than Duffey, Thielbar, and Stashak). The latter two of the parentheticals have had decent low-leverage mop ups recently, but I don't want either in tight late-game situations, and another meltdown or two should really force a move. (I also agree Duffey has more leash, but if he doesn't consistently right the ship, and the Twins otherwise stay good, he will force them to make a move, because they finally have options.)

One of the biggest mistakes we all make with baseball is thinking last year is a blueprint for this year.  For many, many players/teams it's really hard to predict and year to year fluctuations are drastic in nature.

And that's without a pandemic involved in mucking up the analysis.

6 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Even more ready, IMHO, are three RPs who are not on the 40-man. Minaya, Cotton, and Smeltzer all have MLB experience, and all are pitching better this year then Sands, Henriquez, and Moran (and more to the point better than Duffey, Thielbar, and Stashak). The latter two of the parentheticals have had decent low-leverage mop ups recently, but I don't want either in tight late-game situations, and another meltdown or two should really force a move. (I also agree Duffey has more leash, but if he doesn't consistently right the ship, and the Twins otherwise stay good, he will force them to make a move, because they finally have options.)

Cotton has pitched 2 innings in St Paul, Minaya 6. I wouldn't call either of them doing anything great nor could I find any good reason to believe they would be better than anyone else in a high leverage situation.

41 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

One of the biggest mistakes we all make with baseball is thinking last year is a blueprint for this year.  For many, many players/teams it's really hard to predict and year to year fluctuations are drastic in nature.

And that's without a pandemic involved in mucking up the analysis.

The blueprint seemed to be used with great success last year by the Giants last year.

Way too early to say this (remember how we all felt about Duffey his first dozen or so starts) but the pitching has easily exceeded my expectations, by a lot. 

I think this is what we’ve been waiting for all these years!

2 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Way too early to say this (remember how we all felt about Duffey his first dozen or so starts) but the pitching has easily exceeded my expectations, by a lot. 

That's more what I'm talking about. Every young pitcher looks damned good this season whether Winder continues being dominant or not. Just the results of Ryan, Ober, and Duran are enough to make me way more optimistic than I was a few weeks ago.

18 hours ago, Prince William said:

Cotton has pitched 2 innings in St Paul, Minaya 6. I wouldn't call either of them doing anything great nor could I find any good reason to believe they would be better than anyone else in a high leverage situation.

Cotton also pitched 2 hitless innings against the Dodgers this season, and has some history in MLB. Remember how much better the Twins' bullpen was the second half of last year? A big part of that was Minaya pitching late innings to the tune of a 2.48 ERA. In his six appearances he has 3 saves, which implies some leverage. Though he also got torched recently. Still, 5 year MLB track record with a career ERA in the 3s and his best year last year. These guys aren't Duran, but they are better arms than three in our current 'pen. And when games get tight again, and Rocco can't cherry-pick big margin mop-ups, we are likely to be looking for solutions.

19 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Even more ready, IMHO, are three RPs who are not on the 40-man. Minaya, Cotton, and Smeltzer all have MLB experience, and all are pitching better this year then Sands, Henriquez, and Moran (and more to the point better than Duffey, Thielbar, and Stashak). The latter two of the parentheticals have had decent low-leverage mop ups recently, but I don't want either in tight late-game situations, and another meltdown or two should really force a move. (I also agree Duffey has more leash, but if he doesn't consistently right the ship, and the Twins otherwise stay good, he will force them to make a move, because they finally have options.)

Stashak has been used in situations that are more than low-leverage mop-up the last two times out, and he's pitched pretty well. He got ready in a hurry and took over for the injured Ober against Detroit, and then he came into a tie game and threw up a zero against the Rays.  I wouldn't be using him to close games or anything at this point, but I think he's earned more opportunities. He was pretty banged up last season, so I'm willing to take another look with a rather clean slate. If he turns into another Hindenburger, then sure cut bait or LRT to the Saints.

The pipeline has looked good on paper for a while now and our top pitching prospect has yet to reach the MLB. Looks like it's finally gelling but to actually feel good with the pipeline we need more time (1 or 2 yrs.) for it really solidify into a system that can start to compare to TB or CLE or OAK.

How the BP evolves is going to really interesting.  There are only three guys that seem like they are locks for next year.  (Duran / Alcala / Pagan)  Any of Thielbar / Coulombe / Minaya / Moran / Cano / Cotton / Smeltzer / Sands / Henriguez / Jax / Stashak could make it and I think Canterino might be a multi-inning RP.   Of course, there is our old friend Randy Dobnak.  That's 13 guys for 5 spots and that's if they don't sign any free agent RPs.  The depth at AAA should be good.

I wonder where Kenta Maeda will slot into this rotation when he returns. A month ago I'd have said he'd be number one, maybe number two after Sonny Gray. Now I have absolutely no clue.

Kenta is another arm that can be used.  That is the nice thing about what they are doing,  They are getting quality arms on decent contracts.   There will be less stress on them to do well especially during the season,  however, during playoffs the elite arms tend to be needed to do well.  We still have a need for 1-2 of those.  

I expect Maeda to pitch out of the bullpen if he returns this season. He has experience doing that with the Dodgers and likely won't be allowed to have too high a pitch count.

I would not expect anything from Maeda this year and I would be he gets traded this off-season.  Why would the twins use a spot in the rotation for a guy coming of TJ surgery when they still have several prospects that should be ready?

On 5/1/2022 at 2:37 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I… uh… think it may have arrived.

This team may just have gotten really good in a hurry. 

What are you talking about, Sands got his butt handed to him!!!!

I mean other than that, yeah, wow, I'm really, really excited for this young staff. If they stay and get healthy, it's looking like the Twins soon might have a Dodger-esque quality-veteran-starters-forced-into-the-bullpen kind of problem. Which obviously is the opposite of a problem.

First Wave hitting the shores and it looks like a 2nd wave is not far off. 

Roster Management going forward is hopefully difficult for our front office as they decide how many roster spots are committed and to who. 

This is how we get better. This is how the 5 plus ERA inning eater becomes obsolete. This is how budget space is cleared to sign weapons. This is how the club can produce significant trade value that can produce weapons. 

The importance of these young arms can't be overstated. Give the youngsters the space to develop, clear any obstacles in their way.  

 

 

 

15 hours ago, Unwinder said:

I wonder where Kenta Maeda will slot into this rotation when he returns. A month ago I'd have said he'd be number one, maybe number two after Sonny Gray. Now I have absolutely no clue.

IF Maeda pitches for us this year, my guess would be in a BP role. I can’t imagine him coming back right away in a starting role as he will have to work up to that

Maeda is signed to his unique and team friendly deal for one more year. With the uncertainty surrounding his repaired elbow, he'll be fighting for a rotation spot on what essentially will be a prove it year for him. I'm sure he opted for the surgery hoping to continue his career and land another deal. The Twins likely will let this play out and I'm guessing not be inclined to offer him a multi year deal.

What is the potential for Duran to be a starter in the future?  I just noticed that he pitched 82 games in the minors and 80 of them were as a starter.  Could he be brought along like Johan Santana?  Use him out of the pen for a year or two and then work him in as a starter?  Or is that not possible for him?

It will depend on how his body responds. To be a starter you have to really want it. Duran said this spring that he loved relieving and how much better he felt with that kind of workload. Time will tell. Starters can make much more $.

It has started to come to fruition, and hats off to management for making use of it. 

It also helps these guys that all hopes aren't placed on the shoulders of one individual. These rookies seem to enjoy the competition with each other from what I've read, and that is a very good dynamic as opposed to pressure.

In looking over the prospect lists, the thing that stands out to me compared to last year is that the prospects (especially pitchers) are playing! Balazovic is on rehab starts and Enlow is scheduled to pitch this month. Everyone else is active—great news. 

4 hours ago, Twodogs said:

What is the potential for Duran to be a starter in the future?  I just noticed that he pitched 82 games in the minors and 80 of them were as a starter.  Could he be brought along like Johan Santana?  Use him out of the pen for a year or two and then work him in as a starter?  Or is that not possible for him?

His potential to start... or at least throw more innings... is something that needs to be considered in how you utilize him this year and beyond.  

There are posters who want to hand him the closer role based on the impressiveness of his stuff and I understand that thinking. He looks great.

However, if he has been throwing multiple innings per appearance in the minors. I don't think you should restrict his innings just to have a designated closer. 

A dedicated closer throws about 60 innings a year. We would be better served if he doubled that. 

Myself, I'd utilize him for multiple innings and utilize him at any point in the game.