So, about that pitching pipeline…

[Mike Sixel]

29 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

His potential to start... or at least throw more innings... is something that needs to be considered in how you utilize him this year and beyond.  

There are posters who want to hand him the closer role based on the impressiveness of his stuff and I understand that thinking. He looks great.

However, if he has been throwing multiple innings per appearance in the minors. I don't think you should restrict his innings just to have a designated closer. 

A dedicated closer throws about 60 innings a year. We would be better served if he doubled that. 

Myself, I'd utilize him for multiple innings and utilize him at any point in the game.     

I'd like to see him be a 80-100 inning RP, that is used in the 6-9th, in high leverage situations......agreed.

They have "enough starters".....and will always (imo) want a veteran or two around for mentoring. No way I move him back to starter at this point. He has a chance to be an elite RP, keep him there. 

Yes, I know. Injuries will happen. Yes, I know, a guy that pitches 150 innings is more valuable (I don't agree, but I'll concede it for fun).....but this guy has a chance to be elite. Remember when the Yankees didn't lose a game when they had a lead after the 6th? That's what this guy can help do for the Twins....Imo.

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd like to see him be a 80-100 inning RP, that is used in the 6-9th, in high leverage situations......agreed.

They have "enough starters".....and will always (imo) want a veteran or two around for mentoring. No way I move him back to starter at this point. He has a chance to be an elite RP, keep him there. 

Yes, I know. Injuries will happen. Yes, I know, a guy that pitches 150 innings is more valuable (I don't agree, but I'll concede it for fun).....but this guy has a chance to be elite. Remember when the Yankees didn't lose a game when they had a lead after the 6th? That's what this guy can help do for the Twins....Imo.

It's quite possible that he is better served out of the pen. 

Some pitchers are simply better as max effort guys for shorter stints. I don't think there is a one size fits all for what I am suggesting.

I'm simply against the one size fits all mentality period and that means I am flatly against the old school starter, set up, closer, loogy one size fits all mentality of old school staff utilization.

I don't want to take our best talent and the individual abilities (multiple innings) that he has and force him into old school constructs.

Make him a one inning guy and you just toss the extra innings that he is capable of giving you. Those extra innings that he is capable of that you toss aside... will have to go to someone else and that someone else won't be as good.

That's the bottom line... You have to give those extra innings he is capable of throwing to someone who is not as good... just to reduce him to special innings.  

1400 plus innings must be thrown by your staff... I'd rather our best pitchers throw more of those innings and I don't care if they are designated as starters or bullpen. If they can hang zeroes... give them more innings to hang them.

If Duran can throw 150 innings effectively... let him... doesn't matter to me if those innings happen in the 1st, 4th, 7th or 9th. 

 

[Linus]

I agree about not pigeon holing the guy to the 9th. Let him pitch whatever inning has the toughest hitters whether that be the 7th 8th or 9th. And let him pitch two innings. If he is already heated up anoth 15-20 pitches is not going to hurt him. 

[RaoulDuke]

Its awesome to see the pitching development start to bare fruit. 

Falvine has taken deserved heat for last years meltdown and the continued playoff incompetence but they were brought in to modernize the pitching development and philosophy of this organization.  That task takes a couple years to do as you burn through old prospects/ vets/ coaches/ scouts, find their replacements, upgrading the facilities, and most importantly get the right players to mold as they develop. 

They appear to be on the cutting now with stuff like slider usage and the kind of slider they want, now the same appears to be taking place with fastballs.  There have been some funky pens and some trades that looked (and may turn out to still be) questionable but they certainly seem to know what they are looking for. 

Maeda, Ryan, and Paddack were all targeted for a specific quality they thought they could maximize.  Home grown guys like Ober and Winder were brought up with the new approach and are succeeding with it so far.  Even the reclamation guys like Archer and Bundy are looking good so far with a revamped approach.

There are also multiple close to the mlb prospects that could make an impact in the rotation or pen this year.  The pipeline is here, the test will be if it can sustain itself going forward because a lot of the more promising arms are close to the majors now.

 

[saviking]

It's obvious we will have a log jam of starting pitching come next year. Ryan, Ober, Winder, Balazovic, Woods Richardson, and Canterino. Then you have Gray . Paddack and Maeda and Duran could be the best of the bunch if we decide to return him to a starting role. 

Enlow and Strotman need to be switched to relievers like Jax if they want to see the big leaguers. 

But a late inning combo of Duran and Canterino could be lights out!

Obviously we will be using some of these pitchers for trade bait as we will have to open up forty man rosters spots for younger players over the next several years. 

Great problem, eh!

 

 

 

[Linus]

Given that most of these guys have injury histories why not run them through the bullpen first like Winder?  I’ve never seen a pitching logjam so not in favor of trading any of them. 

[Vanimal46]

I forget the name of the poster that used to be on TD, but I’ll never forget their signature… Will 2022 be the first year where a pitching prospect is blocked by 5 good starters? Changing the year every year because it never happened.

It would be a dream scenario to have a true logjam, but I will believe it when we see it. The unfortunate thing is some of these players will never work out. But the great thing now is we have a lot more names with upside to sift through to find 2-3 gems. Which is great to see! Because it wasn’t that long ago when all of our hopes of finding quality pitching resided with 2 names like Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves. And nothing else. 

[stringer bell]

52 minutes ago, Linus said:

Given that most of these guys have injury histories why not run them through the bullpen first like Winder?  I’ve never seen a pitching logjam so not in favor of trading any of them. 

To call Winder a bullpen arm is really misleading. Except for his one inning vs. the Dodgers, he has been the designated long man to come in if and only if the starter can’t make it even four innings. He’s really been a starter-in-waiting and he will have his second start soon. 

[TheLeviathan]

On 5/5/2022 at 1:06 PM, stringer bell said:

To call Winder a bullpen arm is really misleading. Except for his one inning vs. the Dodgers, he has been the designated long man to come in if and only if the starter can’t make it even four innings. He’s really been a starter-in-waiting and he will have his second start soon. 

Start 2 and Winder looked filthy again.

This is why all of that "fire the FO" talk was so misguided.  It's like people totally forgot how much the pandemic altered timetables and threw things for a loop.  There was panic about losing Berrios and Rogers and others but look where we are:

Ryan looks like an absolute stud.  Winder is filthy.  Ober is solid.  Woods-Richardson is sawing through AA.  Ditto Canterino.  Guys we are converting to bullpen arms like Jax and Duran are looking great.

This FO is building something really good here.

[Shaitan]

On 5/5/2022 at 1:21 PM, saviking said:

It's obvious we will have a log jam of starting pitching come next year. Ryan, Ober, Winder, Balazovic, Woods Richardson, and Canterino. Then you have Gray . Paddack and Maeda and Duran could be the best of the bunch if we decide to return him to a starting role. 

Enlow and Strotman need to be switched to relievers like Jax if they want to see the big leaguers. 

But a late inning combo of Duran and Canterino could be lights out!

Obviously we will be using some of these pitchers for trade bait as we will have to open up forty man rosters spots for younger players over the next several years. 

Great problem, eh!

 

 

 

No such thing as too many pitchers, especially as rosters keep getting bigger and everyone throws fewer innings.

Twins have already used like 8 starters this year and they're in first place. The second you trade away depth is when you need it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Start 2 and Winder looked filthy again.

This is why all of that "fire the FO" talk was so misguided.  It's like people totally forgot how much the pandemic altered timetables and threw things for a loop.  There was panic about losing Berrios and Rogers and others but look where we are:

Ryan looks like an absolute stud.  Winder is filthy.  Ober is solid.  Woods-Richardson is sawing through AA.  Ditto Canterino.  Guys we are converting to bullpen arms like Jax and Duran are looking great.

This FO is building something really good here.

Yep, people were being unfair about the situation. I was also disappointed with the front office in a variety of ways, such as the fact they hadn't produced a good reliever in five seasons. That was a black mark against them.

But I also said 2022 was the "make progress or go" season. 2020 was a wreck for obvious reasons. 2021 was completely upside-down and everyone was injured. We can't judge anything based on those two seasons.

And this season, it looks like they've been doing their job all along and it appears 2021 wouldn't have happened if not for the pandemic. The Twins were in a particularly difficult spot in 2020, as their roster and farm system didn't allow them to use any decent prospects, so everyone just got the year off instead.

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yep, people were being unfair about the situation. I was also disappointed with the front office in a variety of ways, such as the fact they hadn't produced a good reliever in five seasons. That was a black mark against them.

But I also said 2022 was the "make progress or go" season. 2020 was a wreck for obvious reasons. 2021 was completely upside-down and everyone was injured. We can't judge anything based on those two seasons.

And this season, it looks like they've been doing their job all along and it appears 2021 wouldn't have happened if not for the pandemic. The Twins were in a particularly difficult spot in 2020, as their roster and farm system didn't allow them to use any decent prospects, so everyone just got the year off instead.

Putting them on a "prove it" year was totally fine.  They had earned some skepticism.

But I think people ignored the signs that the pool was growing in the minors because of the pandemic.  

I was optimistic about the team's position last year on pitching relative to most but even I am surprised it's hit this quickly.  However, I'm not surprised that a flurry of moves meant to improve the defense, turn over leadership to Buxton, and give opportunities to young players has worked out well.  

[Rosterman]

I was hoping that with the4 COBVID replacements, the Twins could've gone outside the 40-man for at least a week. A look at Cano. Perhaps a start for Smeltzer (I think Gray REALLY needed one more start and in St. Paul). 

I feel Kirilloff would be better served right now, with the way Celestino and Larnach are hitting, and Kepler at least holding his own, to get comfortable in St. Paul, and also take reps at first base. Rather than sit on the becnh here.

The Twins could still use that extra bullpen arm as pitchers just make it past the fifth inning, in msot cases, if lucky...still.

But we all have to be salivating with the rotation arm popeline, to say the least. And, if nothing else, some of those arms become bullpen arms.

Moran looked good. Duran is holding his own, just has to realize that it is a lot of work to be a major league pitcher and you have to do your homework and practice.

[nova_twins]

I am in general agreement with many of the posts here, but I do suggest keeping in mind that offense has been down this year broadly across MLB. I think that may be skewing perceptions a bit. 

For instance, Polanco and Jeffers have seemed to be struggling somewhat at the plate, but have wRC+ of 113 and 115, respectively. And in a tiny sample size, Celestino is basically performing at a star level by hitting a few singles and playing defense. 

On the flip side, Joe Ryan has an xFIP- of 98 and Ober is at 118. The Twins' pitching WAR is 6th in the AL. So, while there are a lot of positives, there's still room to improve. 

Having said that, the pitching pipeline is a big reason why I wasn't ready to give up on the F.O. What it boils down to is this: mid-market clubs have to be able to find pitchers in the middle rounds of the draft, and in trades, and by every other conceivable means.

It's not about any one pitcher - successful franchises like TB, CLE, STL, show the ability to do that well over a long period of time. There are signs of that in Minnesota, which is an extremely promising development.

[gunnarthor]

On 5/7/2022 at 7:23 AM, TheLeviathan said:

Start 2 and Winder looked filthy again.

This is why all of that "fire the FO" talk was so misguided.  It's like people totally forgot how much the pandemic altered timetables and threw things for a loop.  There was panic about losing Berrios and Rogers and others but look where we are:

Ryan looks like an absolute stud.  Winder is filthy.  Ober is solid.  Woods-Richardson is sawing through AA.  Ditto Canterino.  Guys we are converting to bullpen arms like Jax and Duran are looking great.

This FO is building something really good here.

Way too early to know that. The FO ****ed up a lot in the last few years so it's probably best to wait. We've been blessed with a really easy schedule although the AL is pretty bad overall. We might have a sub-.500 team make the playoffs again.

[nova_twins]

5 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Way too early to know that. The FO ****ed up a lot in the last few years so it's probably best to wait. We've been blessed with a really easy schedule although the AL is pretty bad overall. We might have a sub-.500 team make the playoffs again.

Yeah that 2019-20 stretch of winning over 60% of their games was pretty terrible. ?

[TheLeviathan]

7 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Way too early to know that. The FO ****ed up a lot in the last few years so it's probably best to wait. We've been blessed with a really easy schedule although the AL is pretty bad overall. We might have a sub-.500 team make the playoffs again.

I don't think we've had an easy schedule at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Way too early to know that. The FO ****ed up a lot in the last few years so it's probably best to wait. We've been blessed with a really easy schedule although the AL is pretty bad overall. We might have a sub-.500 team make the playoffs again.

The Twins are ranked 23rd in strength of schedule.

http://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php

But their remaining SoS is 21st so their opponents are what they are.

[cHawk]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

Way too early to know that. The FO ****ed up a lot in the last few years so it's probably best to wait. We've been blessed with a really easy schedule although the AL is pretty bad overall. We might have a sub-.500 team make the playoffs again.

They also did a lot of good stuff in the last few years, such as the Cruz and Berrios trades, the Buxton signing, and the Correa signing.

But yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if a sub-.500 team makes the playoffs in the AL this year.

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Twins are ranked 23rd in strength of schedule.

http://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php

But their remaining SoS is 21st so their opponents are what they are.

Yep, the AL is a dumpster fire. It's still early so things will change but if the Twins just play .500 ball from here on they'll get 84 wins which is almost certainly enough to make the playoffs. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

Yep, the AL is a dumpster fire. It's still early so things will change but if the Twins just play .500 ball from here on they'll get 84 wins which is almost certainly enough to make the playoffs. 

I think the Twins' SoS will actually climb a little in time, as the White Sox are likely to get better as the season progresses. They're almost surely not a sub-.500 team.

[KirbyDome89]

8 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I don't think we've had an easy schedule at all.

5 of their 9 series to start the year have been against teams on track to lose 100+ games. There's no guarantee that'll happen, but Detroit, KC, Baltimore, and Oakland are terrible and Boston looks dead in the water. The Dodgers, ChiSox, and Rays are above .500, and they caught the ChiSox in the midst of a 7 (or whatever number) game losing streak. They get Houston next, followed by Cleveland, and then it's another 18 straight games against that same pathetic group mentioned above. That's a very favorable schedule, especially to start the season. It's true, they have to play the schedule they're given, and they shouldn't apologize for beating teams they're supposed to, but Idk how much should be read into performances to date. 

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think the Twins' SoS will actually climb a little in time, as the White Sox are likely to get better as the season progresses. They're almost surely not a sub-.500 team.

I'd imagine it drops before moving up as the NL West and AL East teams below them start to play more divisional games, and the Twins continue to play a bulk of their games against bottom feeders. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

5 of their 9 series to start the year have been against teams on track to lose 100+ games. There's no guarantee that'll happen, but Detroit, KC, Baltimore, and Oakland are terrible and Boston looks dead in the water. The Dodgers, ChiSox, and Rays are above .500, and they caught the ChiSox in the midst of a 7 (or whatever number) game losing streak. They get Houston next, followed by Cleveland, and then it's another 18 straight games against that same pathetic group mentioned above. That's a very favorable schedule, especially to start the season. It's true, they have to play the schedule they're given, and they shouldn't apologize for beating teams they're supposed to, but Idk how much should be read into performances to date. 

The AL just might be mostly bad.  I'd say they had a fairly typical schedule so far.

Also....we were 5-8 and the Sox were 6-6 when that series started. Some of this easy schedule is baked into the Twins wailing on teams.

[KirbyDome89]

17 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

The AL just might be mostly bad.  I'd say they had a fairly typical schedule so far.

Also....we were 5-8 and the Sox were 6-6 when that series started. Some of this easy schedule is baked into the Twins wailing on teams.

Detroit and KC still have single digit wins; everyone is wailing on them. Oakland is on a lengthy losing streak. The Boston and Baltimore series were splits. I don't think MN is all that responsible for the early season woes of these clubs. 

The AL Central being awful is typical. Getting the bulk of your first 50-60 games against the worst of your own division + bottom feeders from other divisions probably isn't. It's a schedule quirk, and one that seems to favor the Twins, that's all. 

I do agree that the AL might just be feast or famine this year.

[bean5302]

Winder has been everything I'd hoped he might be flashing the potential to be a top of the rotation arm, though he's been surprisingly more like a better version of Kyle Gibson than I expected, generating a lot of weak contact and tons of ground balls.

Ryan and Ober (aside from the groin) have also had nice starts to the season. Ryan's results are fueled by luck so far with that .212 BABIP, 6.1% HR/FB rate and ridiculous 91% strand rate, but the xFIP still looks really nice at 3.70. Here's hoping no cracks in the armor will be exposed as the scouting reports grow. Ryan may well be better than I thought he could be. 

The biggest surprise for me, without a doubt though, is Jhoan Duran. After struggling greatly with granting the free pass in 3 of his past 4 stops in the minors and being hit hard in AAA last year, his results have been very stingy on walks so far. I honestly expected he'd be mashed like Thanksgiving taters. The underlying strike percent and first pitch strike rate suggest there's going to be some correction, but still a huge step forward imho.

Glad to see the other prospects getting healthy and getting innings in.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Detroit and KC still have single digit wins; everyone is wailing on them. Oakland is on a lengthy losing streak. The Boston and Baltimore series were splits. I don't think MN is all that responsible for the early season woes of these clubs. 

The AL Central being awful is typical. Getting the bulk of your first 50-60 games against the worst of your own division + bottom feeders from other divisions probably isn't. It's a schedule quirk, and one that seems to favor the Twins, that's all. 

I do agree that the AL might just be feast or famine this year.

Well, for one, your first point is blatantly false.  We are partly responsible for their lousy record.  It's why the teams with the best records 25 games in also have the easiest schedule....the sample is too small for it to be anything but their doing.  

To me, an easy schedule implies that much more difficult times are ahead.  Based on what we see in the AL, that doesn't appear to be the case.  This is likely about what they should expect.  

[RpR]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Detroit and KC still have single digit wins; everyone is wailing on them. Oakland is on a lengthy losing streak. The Boston and Baltimore series were splits. I don't think MN is all that responsible for the early season woes of these clubs. 

The AL Central being awful is typical. Getting the bulk of your first 50-60 games against the worst of your own division + bottom feeders from other divisions probably isn't. It's a schedule quirk, and one that seems to favor the Twins, that's all. 

I do agree that the AL might just be feast or famine this year.

The Central Divisions in both leagues at this point have the worst SRS, time will tell how that goes.

[KirbyDome89]

8 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Well, for one, your first point is blatantly false.  We are partly responsible for their lousy record.  It's why the teams with the best records 25 games in also have the easiest schedule....the sample is too small for it to be anything but their doing.  

To me, an easy schedule implies that much more difficult times are ahead.  Based on what we see in the AL, that doesn't appear to be the case.  This is likely about what they should expect.  

Sure, I didn't say the Twins had zero hand in it, but if we're attributing the easy start to MN "wailing," on these teams then we should also acknowledge the fact that literally almost every other opponent has done the same thing, i.e. it's likely the Twins' impact on how easy their schedule has been is being overrated. 

Semantics here, but they don't have another month where they get 20+ games against truly terrible teams. Maybe that changes as the season moves along but right now this seems like the "easy," part. 

[TheLeviathan]

58 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Sure, I didn't say the Twins had zero hand in it, but if we're attributing the easy start to MN "wailing," on these teams then we should also acknowledge the fact that literally almost every other opponent has done the same thing, i.e. it's likely the Twins' impact on how easy their schedule has been is being overrated. 

Semantics here, but they don't have another month where they get 20+ games against truly terrible teams. Maybe that changes as the season moves along but right now this seems like the "easy," part. 

Your second paragraph is once again misrepresenting the situation, as you did with the White Sox example you tried earlier.  The Twins have played 29 games.  At least 12 of them have been against meh to good teams.  Another 4 depends on what you consider the Boston Red Sox.  You continue to misrepresent how bad some of the teams we're playing are based on a small sample so it can feed your argument.  I don't think that's fair.