A New Sheriff In Town?

[Cody Pirkl]

Long considered a two-pitch pitcher, Chris Paddack appeared to be far from the high-end arm the Twins needed when they shipped off Taylor Rogers on Opening Day. In the young stages of the 2022 season, however, Paddack is showing that it may be time to recalibrate expectations.

Chris Paddack burst onto the scene in 2019 posting a 3.33 ERA in San Diego over about 140 innings. He paired a dominant mid to high-90s fastball with a plus-plus changeup and fantastic command to put together a rookie campaign that hinted at a future ace-level pitcher. Over the next two years, however, Paddack came to find that the MLB is unforgiving toward starting pitchers with only two pitches. And so he went to work.

Contrary to popular belief, Paddack wasn’t quite a two-pitch pitcher in 2021. He had incorporated a curveball 12% of the time and had fantastic results on the pitch. His 5+ ERA finish was instead a result of an underperforming fastball, although you could argue that Paddack wasn’t throwing the breaking ball nearly enough which could have helped the performance of the rest of his repertoire. Luckily, Paddack appears to have made significant adjustments to both pitches.

This small change should pay off twofold. On one hand, getting the fastball away from the heart of the plate is always a good idea. Also consider the fact that he’s upped his breaking ball usage to over 20% so far, meaning it’s harder to look fastball. Mixing in more breaking balls typically makes any fastball more effective, but now that he has one to pair with a devastating changeup, his fastball at the top of the zone should be that much harder to get around on. We’ve seen early signs of hitters already having difficulties with this change.

While it’s admittedly a small sample size, Paddack’s better overall performance appears to be tied to his once broken fastball making a huge rebound. After batters hit .314 on the pitch in 2021, they’re posting a .250 mark so far this year. More impressively, after allowing a .531 slugging % on the pitch last season, hitters have posted a .357 mark so far in 2022. This is all despite the fact that his average fastball velocity is down from 94.8 to 92.9 this year after a shortened spring and pitching in colder weather. It’s possible the pitch may actually improve as the season rolls on.

The biggest Chris Paddack storyline to keep an eye on however is his development of yet another pitch. As a fastball/changeup pitcher for most of his career, Paddack has posted fantastic reverse splits as we often see with pitchers whose primary offspeed is a changeup. Holding left-handers to a .226/.273/.408 line is impressive for a right-handed pitcher, but in Paddack’s case his lack of an equalizer for right-handed hitters has resulted in them posting a healthy .742 OPS against him. Luckily it appears the Twins were two steps ahead on this one.

In his third start with the Twins, Paddack threw what Statcast calls a cutter seven times. Whether it’s a cutter or a slider, this would really round out Paddack’s repertoire with a pitch that traditionally stifles right-handed pitching. It’s too small of a sample to draw any conclusions from the pitch, but the fact of the matter is if Paddack can make any strides in limiting right-handed hitters, it’s not hard to see him being one of the leaders in the rotation for the next three years.

It was easy to question parting with Taylor Rogers for a struggling Chris Paddack at the time, but it’s become very clear in this early season that the Twins did so with a very specific plan in mind. At 26 years old after a few tough seasons, Paddack appears to still have the raw talent that once earned him the reputation as one of the up-and-coming stud pitchers in baseball. With a change in scenery, a change in pitch sequencing, and possibly a new trick or two up his sleeve, Chris Paddack could become the high-end pitcher fans were calling for all offseason. Do you agree?

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[wsnydes]

Nice write-up!

Interesting in-depth look at how the FO identifies a player they think they can get value out of both on the acquisition front and on the field.  I think you see that with Joe Ryan as well.  It doesn't seem like they're doing anything drastic, just minor tweaks or pitch mixes to make a guy more effective.

[adorduan]

too early to tell.....

[mikelink45]

I reserve judgment - Rogers has 8 games, no runs, 7 saves, 0.625 whip, 8 Ks - I think we could still use him.  Paddack is better than he has been and hopefully will continue to develop - I am glad we have him, but my expectations are limited until I see more. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good article. Thanks. Plus Chris has Ricky, the Screaming Rally Goat. I ordered my Wednesday. It is scheduled to arrive today. Baaa !

[Blyleven2011]

If the FO office and coaches have found and tweaked his mechanics to better him  , it's all great but it's to small of a sample size to know what kind of a pitcher he really is going to be ,,,

rookie year was good  , next 2 seasons not  so good  ...

[GNess]

Agree small sample size. In comparing value yes, Rogers is doing great for SD so far. However, they have one season of control, while the Twins have three with Paddack. The Twins also got Pagan and the pitching prospect for Rooker. It looks like a solid trade for both sides.

[bunsen82]

Value, Value, Value.   That is the mantra of this front office.  Paddack and Pagan have the same WAR that Rogers has had this year,  with Rogers pitching extremely well.  A mid rotation to a #2 starter is worth much more than a very good relief pitcher,  and that is no knock on Rogers.  Forget the fact that this is for 3 years of Paddack and 2 for Pagan for 1 of Rogers and that is nothing to say of the other minor leaguer we got in the deal.  

Paddack had no spot in San Diego after they traded for Manea and their plethora of starting pitching.   With more refined coaching and developing a third pitch,  we are seeing the results.  Now if we continue to do well we will need to trade for a couple relievers to strengthen the bullpen.   

[Aichiman]

Sure it's great to get a young guy with a lot of potential, but we lost our closer to do it.  And since we only--realistically--have our new superstar shortstop for one year, dumping our only proven closer to "build for the future," makes no sense.  Imho, Falvey and company made one move too many.  They got too cute and lost their sense of time. 

 

[jimbo92107]

Something must be wrong with the Padres pitching coaches. How could they allow a young pitcher to develop a fastball scatter chart that was concentrated right down the middle of the plate?? 

Also, I saw this guy pitch as a rookie. He looked great, and I swear I saw him throw big curve balls as part of his mix. It wasn't just fastball - change up. 

Anyway, I hope he does add a big curve to his repertoire. That little cutter won't cut it for long. Doesn't move enough. 

[bunsen82]

11 minutes ago, Aichiman said:

Sure it's great to get a young guy with a lot of potential, but we lost our closer to do it.  And since we only--realistically--have our new superstar shortstop for one year, dumping our only proven closer to "build for the future," makes no sense.  Imho, Falvey and company made one move too many.  They got too cute and lost their sense of time. 

 

This all comes down to the time horizon.  We lost a closer for 1 year.  He was likely gone after this year anyway.  I had this discussion with my uncle the other day discussing Correa and this years prospects.  I would be thrilled if the Twins keep Correa all year and the twins are doing well,  and then they use some lower level prospects to possibly get a closer more bullpen help.  Falvey and Levine are looking at have this team competitive not for 1 year stints,  but a continuous level of competitiveness.  That means being willing to trade a closer on the last year of his contract for another decent reliever and a starter that can give you 3 years of very good value.   This trade will likely go down as one of the best trades for the Twins is my guess.  

I will also be drinking my coffee watching Twinsdaily lose its **** the day they trade Correa,  because again he is a valuable asset.   The odds he is traded is 75% is my guess.  The only way he isn't is we are one of the top 1-2 teams in the A.L.  

[nicksaviking]

I'm wholly in favor of grabbing any San Diego pitcher with a hint of promise. 

I think they have mismanaged more major league pitchers than anyone but Pittsburgh the last several years.

[Kipp35]

1 hour ago, adorduan said:

too early to tell.....

Same can be said about all the  Buxton for MVP talk.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good article. Thanks. Plus Chris has Ricky, the Screaming Rally Goat. I ordered my Wednesday. It is scheduled to arrive today. Baaa !

it’s Richie!

 

:)

[mikelink45]

41 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

This all comes down to the time horizon.  We lost a closer for 1 year.  He was likely gone after this year anyway.  I had this discussion with my uncle the other day discussing Correa and this years prospects.  I would be thrilled if the Twins keep Correa all year and the twins are doing well,  and then they use some lower level prospects to possibly get a closer more bullpen help.  Falvey and Levine are looking at have this team competitive not for 1 year stints,  but a continuous level of competitiveness.  That means being willing to trade a closer on the last year of his contract for another decent reliever and a starter that can give you 3 years of very good value.   This trade will likely go down as one of the best trades for the Twins is my guess.  

I will also be drinking my coffee watching Twinsdaily lose its **** the day they trade Correa,  because again he is a valuable asset.   The odds he is traded is 75% is my guess.  The only way he isn't is we are one of the top 1-2 teams in the A.L.  

 I'm interested to see how the postings that say we had only Rogers for one year. I believe extensions and resignings are allowed. 

[PopRiveter]

Quote

 

Chris Paddack burst onto the scene in 2019 posting a 3.33 ERA in San Diego over about 140 innings. He paired a dominant mid to high-90s fastball with a plus-plus changeup and fantastic command...

After batters hit .314 on the pitch in 2021, they’re posting a .250 mark so far this year. More impressively, after allowing a .531 slugging % on the pitch last season, hitters have posted a .357 mark so far in 2022. This is all despite the fact that his average fastball velocity is down from 94.8 to 92.9 this year

 

Velocity certainly isn't everything, but if it is trending downward, it will be key for him to keep developing his off-speed repertoire and become a smarter pitcher. Your article (and the early returns) seems to show that's been happening so far.

Still, when I saw that headline (and mullet), at first glance I assumed you were writing about Joe Ryan. Ryan certainly has me feeling more confident as a "new sheriff" in the rotation. 

I'd be thrilled if Paddack were to put up a 120 inning season with a 4.15 ERA.

I mean not enough to forget my disappointment at losing Rogers, but that's just because I'm a sentimental old guy.

[bunsen82]

7 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

 I'm interested to see how the postings that say we had only Rogers for one year. I believe extensions and resignings are allowed. 

Did this trade exclude us from signing Rogers next year?   Has the regime paid for any legitimate relief pitcher in the last 5 years,  I have only seen scrap heap additions.  They have no plans to sign Rogers in the offseason is my guess.   They don't spend their money on pitching period.  They will use contracts on position players and are trying to draft to develop a pipeline for the pitchers.  They have had to supplement this with some trades.   This is my observation of the last couple years.  

[Einheri]

7 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

 I'm interested to see how the postings that say we had only Rogers for one year. I believe extensions and resignings are allowed. 

You've met our ownership and front office, haven't you?  Rogers was making $7.3M this year.  That was already too high for their tastes.

[TownBallGuy]

Paddack might be the best 6th man in the Majors.   I like having him at the back end of rotation, as expectations are low.  But keep in mind he is reunited with the former Padres manager and the article doesn't mention that.   All the metrics aside, this was a good trade with a huge upside because of the "intangibles".

[CRF]

As was said earlier in this thread...SD doesn't have the best rep for developing their pitchers, but I like what I've seen from Paddack so far. He talked about adding another pitch the other night with Bremer and Morneau. It's way to early to draw any conclusions long term, but if he keeps going on an upward trend, I'd be very pleased. Rogers is doing great for SD right now, so the trade is kind of looking one sided for the moment. Whether or not it remains that way, I guess we'll see. Team control was a big factor in Fal-Vine making the trade, which I can understand. I don't know if we would have signed Rogers after this year anyway. I believe he was going to get more than we'd pay. On a side note...I'm not real thrilled with Pagan, but I'd take him over a few of the other options we've been throwing out there the last couple years...like Stashak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, etc. 

[4twinsJA]

Paddack, Ryan, and Ober look like a great core to build on for the rotation for the next few years. Winder looks ready, with others on the way. Does not look like Twins will need to look at cast offs for rotation for next couple of years.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I reserve judgment - Rogers has 8 games, no runs, 7 saves, 0.625 whip, 8 Ks - I think we could still use him.  Paddack is better than he has been and hopefully will continue to develop - I am glad we have him, but my expectations are limited until I see more. 

and one giant blown save.....

[High heat]

He has had 3 starts and pitched 14 innings.  Lets not crown him our savior just yet.  Lets wait till the weather warms up and teams get a second look at him (a guy coming from the NL were AL teams havent seen him yet).  I am very happy and suprised with how well both Paddack and Bundy have pitched and look thus far.

[Minny505]

5 hours ago, adorduan said:

too early to tell.....

Not really. According to the brightest minds in the biz, pitcher performance stabilizes at 200 pitches. That is about what Paddy Wagon has thrown. His pitching numbers are uniformly excellent, with above average control, command, and movement. 

He is a big mover up the lists of Pitcher List, Pitch Plus, and others. Ignore the production and focus on his pitching independent of results. It is impossible to not be impressed.

[wsnydes]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

it’s Richie!

 

I've watched this gif so many times that I'm starting to question my own sanity.

[Squirrel]

2 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

I've watched this gif so many times that I'm starting to question my own sanity.

We questioned it long before then ... just sayin' ... 

[wsnydes]

2 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

We questioned it long before then ... just sayin' ... 

and you were right to do so!  That's totally fair!

Self awareness lags behind what others already know!