Three Pitchers Who Could Be Demoted When Rosters Shrink

[Matthew Lenz]

Roster sizes for all MLB teams will be shrinking by two spots on May 2nd, limiting teams to 26 players until September. Yesterday, Theodore Tollefson looked at which hitters may be on the chopping block, and now I will look at a few pitchers on the fringe.

The Twins took advantage of the 28-man rosters by supplementing their bullpen with extra arms. Especially with a lockout-shortened Spring Training, this was crucial as it allowed for Twins starting pitchers to have a reasonable ramp-up period. Now that we are three weeks into the season and starters are beginning to reach their “Opening Day form,” I think we will see at least one bullpen pitcher be sent down to St. Paul and possibly two. With that said, let's look at the pitchers who might be on the outside looking in.

Josh Winder
I think this is the most obvious choice and would go as far as issuing a guarantee that he makes his way down to St. Paul. Winder is a promising 25-year-old prospect who has found success as a starter at every level, not to mention providing the Twins with some effective relief innings so far in 2022. The long-term picture for Winder is that of a mid-rotation arm, not a long reliever out of the pen, whose only “red flag” is being shut down in July last year due to a shoulder injury. While he should be the first to be sent down to St. Paul, he’s likely also the first to earn a spot start when the Twins have a need in the big league rotation.

Griffin Jax
Although he’s older than Winder, Jax is another one who needs to get innings, and I think it’s time to groom him as a reliever. In the last year or so, Jax has developed a slider that is now his best pitch and mixes that with a mid-90s fastball that seems to add a couple of ticks when he comes out of the pen.

As noted by Nick, it’s a small sample, but the Twins have starting depth in their minors which provides them the flexibility to give Jax some run as a reliever. If the long-term plan is a reliever role, I could see him sticking in Minneapolis as he’s been one of the few non-starter bright spots in 2022.

Cody Stashak
He seems older than 27 because he’s pitched parts of four seasons at the Major League level. I’m conflicted with Stashak as I don’t see any upside to him taking a spot in St. Paul, but I don’t know how effective he can be in Minneapolis. He showed promise over 40 relief innings in 2019 and 2020, but the road has been rocky for Stashak since dealing with ineffective pitching and, of course, a strained bicep that cost him most of last season. So far, 2022 hasn’t been kind to Stashak, but I’d instead give him some time in Minneapolis in low leverage spots than any role across town with the Saints.

If you are the Twins, who would your two roster cuts be next week?

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[Brandon]

I would keep Winder up until Archer hits 5 or 6 innings.  He hasn't done that yet.  

I like Jax and would like to see him get more time as a reliever too.  same with Stashak.  so I am conflicted with who they send down,  probably Winder and Jax.  or Jax and an OF.

[tony&rodney]

Who gets sent down on Monday depends on health as of Sunday night. I am not seeing Buxton's name in the lineup today. Hmmm?

I would send down Garlick and IL Sanchez. That leaves 14 pitchers and 12 batters.

The Twins will face further decisions when Gray is ready to return as well as a decision on Kirilloff will be made in a week too. When Sanchez comes back Godoy goes down (DFA) and Kirilloff replaces Celestino. Gray comes back and whatever pitcher had tough luck against Tampa Bay goes down (Stashak). 

Right now I see both Winder and Jax as solid in the bullpen, filling needed, albeit different, roles. Both have looked ready, and better than some of the more experienced options. I'm going with talent.

June is a ways off and by that time management should have a good idea of which pitchers need a rest, which are trending up, and who might be headed elsewhere.

[Thegrin]

If they are pitching well now, keep them.  If not, senfd them down. This means Thielbar might go down. This means Duffy could be released...nahhh - not going to happen.

[Doctor Gast]

I'd like to keep Winder up because we desperately need long relief, I'd like to bring up Smeltzer to help out in that department. I'd give them as many innings as possble. When Gray returns, IDK how fast he'll get up to 5 innings.

Garlick should be released, Celestino, although our best back up glove needs more time in AAA to hone his hitting. I'd like Godoy to stay up but I'm afraid he'd be sent down. When the active roster is reduce I'd send down Stashak

[tony&rodney]

Stashak and Celestino have looked pretty good today so far. Arraez is a bit silly at first base but he looks ok. Larnach is showing he wants playing time. Even Garlick is looking decent but he just faces a pretty tough numbers game. 

[PatPfund]

Winder for the reasons you give, Celestino for development as well.

But this isn't just about numbers, the bullpen is an active problem right now, which is why people want Winder to stay. The Falvines have done a good job of stockpiling good arms, but they are in the wrong place, and that should change.

We have players whose gutsy performances in lean times just aren't good enough any more, and they need to move so better players can make the team better. Stashak taking a role in St Paul doesn't appeal, because he is actively worse than several pitchers there. Minaya, Cotton, Smeltzer, Cano; three of those with good MLB experience. So no more Stashak chances with the Twins; switch him out for one of those players now (including on the 40-man). We've seen Cody's ceiling; if he has more he should prove it in St Paul or someone else's uniform. The same with Caleb Thielbar, though they don't even have to waive him, because he still has an option. Use it, DFA Vallimont, and call up one of the St Paul Four. Smeltzer is left-handed, but isn't it more important that the reliever is good? Isn't the left-right thing overblown in the 3 batter minimum MLB? I would give Duffey a bit (not much) more time, but the clock should also be ticking on that mess.

When your team is crummy, you can play a personal favorite game, but the Twins actually appear to have a chance to be good. So use your best relievers, the ones you've worked hard to develop and accumulate, and have some tough, but needed discussions with once key players about their future here.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Who gets sent down on Monday depends on health as of Sunday night. I am not seeing Buxton's name in the lineup today. Hmmm?

I would send down Garlick and IL Sanchez. That leaves 14 pitchers and 12 batters.

The Twins will face further decisions when Gray is ready to return as well as a decision on Kirilloff will be made in a week too. When Sanchez comes back Godoy goes down (DFA) and Kirilloff replaces Celestino. Gray comes back and whatever pitcher had tough luck against Tampa Bay goes down (Stashak). 

Right now I see both Winder and Jax as solid in the bullpen, filling needed, albeit different, roles. Both have looked ready, and better than some of the more experienced options. I'm going with talent.

June is a ways off and by that time management should have a good idea of which pitchers need a rest, which are trending up, and who might be headed elsewhere.

Fangraphs shows Godoy as having options left. Are you suggesting they should get him off the 40-man to add someone or were you thinking he was out of options and that was the only choice they had in sending him down?

[darwin22]

2 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Winder for the reasons you give, Celestino for development as well.

But this isn't just about numbers, the bullpen is an active problem right now, which is why people want Winder to stay. The Falvines have done a good job of stockpiling good arms, but they are in the wrong place, and that should change.

We have players whose gutsy performances in lean times just aren't good enough any more, and they need to move so better players can make the team better. Stashak taking a role in St Paul doesn't appeal, because he is actively worse than several pitchers there. Minaya, Cotton, Smeltzer, Cano; three of those with good MLB experience. So no more Stashak chances with the Twins; switch him out for one of those players now (including on the 40-man). We've seen Cody's ceiling; if he has more he should prove it in St Paul or someone else's uniform. The same with Caleb Thielbar, though they don't even have to waive him, because he still has an option. Use it, DFA Vallimont, and call up one of the St Paul Four. Smeltzer is left-handed, but isn't it more important that the reliever is good? Isn't the left-right thing overblown in the 3 batter minimum MLB? I would give Duffey a bit (not much) more time, but the clock should also be ticking on that mess.

When your team is crummy, you can play a personal favorite game, but the Twins actually appear to have a chance to be good. So use your best relievers, the ones you've worked hard to develop and accumulate, and have some tough, but needed discussions with once key players about their future here.

Excellent analysis regarding roster management!  Count me in the "camp" of DFA'ing Stashak and optioning Thielbar back to AAA.  Smeltzer can serve in Winder's long relief role and has absolutely earned that promotion.  One potential snag with sending Winder down is if Ober's groin injury demands an IL stint.  If so, a lot depends on how soon Gray is ready to return to rotation.  Hearing that mgmt wants to give Gray 1 rehab start in AAA before activating him.  If that proves to be the case, Winder might be staying around for awhile.   Thielbar needs to get his mechanics worked out at SP now, NOT a week from now!  Minaya, Cotton or Cano can fill his role.  

[Tiantwindup]

Winder should stay because 1.  He is logical next starter if someone in the rotation is injured, 2.  He has pitched very well in relief. 3. And the most important reason is that if he heads to St. Paul he will be starting and burning innings and will thus be unavailable if needed in September (or October?).  He will be on an innings count, after all. 
 

I think that for the same reason it is good that Balozovic is having innings limited at this point…

[The Mad King]

I'd like to see Jax stick. Having him come out of the pen and pitch 3 innings comes in handy.

[2wins87]

With 14 pitcher slots for another month, you better believe the Twins will take advantage of that (as will most other teams).

Unless there are still health questions with Sanchez, Godoy will be one.  No reason to make a 40-man roster decision yet, so they can keep him ready in St. Paul if another injury occurs.

I think Celestino is the other.  Larnach has been hitting since called up, so I think they'll want to continue getting him a lot of playing time in the majors.  Garlick is only in the majors as a platoon bat, so it doesn't really matter if he ends up riding the bench most of the time.  Celestino could use some regular at bats, and he probably isn't getting that with the Twins, at least at this time.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Fangraphs shows Godoy as having options left. Are you suggesting they should get him off the 40-man to add someone or were you thinking he was out of options and that was the only choice they had in sending him down?

I thought he was out of options. I would keep him in the system if he has options. Thanks.

[mnfireman]

I believe the Twins probably benefitted from the 28 man roster more than any other team, but could possibly mange just fine with 26. The 28 man roster allowed the team to cover up short starts and nagging injuries as well as give players days off to rest or mentally recover. 

I think they should send one position player and one pitcher to AAA. My choices would be Winder and Celestino, as they would be better served by getting regular playing time and a regular turn in the rotation. I also think when Kirilloff comes off the IL it should be Garlick getting demoted because Larnach has looked good. Having Arraez, Gordon, and Kirilloff being able to play multiple positions to give Correa, Buxton, Sano and Urshela days off. It also allows the team to keep Godoy as catching insurance without production drop-off from the rest of the line-up.

[Shaitan]

My takeaway from these two discussions is twofold.

1) 28 is too big a roster, as I don't care who is sent down. Several are worthy candidates.

2) This team is fun, but needs to improve because several are worthy candidates.

But, really, I imagine we'll see 40+ players in MLB on the Twins this year. It's a long season and there are always moving parts.

[GNess]

To date, Winder has been too effective to send down. He is developing when he is getting major league hitters out too.

[stringer bell]

These are all small sample sizes. Everyone in questions can be optioned, including Godoy. It does make sense to keep Godoy in the system. Thre is a near certainty that more than two catchers will be needed down the road. I disagree with the contention that the Twins benefitted most from the expanded rosters. They are in the upper tier for starter innings pitched and have had two occasions to have a long reliever. I’m confident that other teams have had more need for long relief. 
 

I also understand that if the situation could change immediately. The Ober injury could trigger changes to the team’s plan. 

[South Dakota Tom]

Until injuries take us down a different path, I think we keep 14 pitchers through May.  That means Garlick and Godoy (once Sanchez is ready to catch regularly) go down.  Celestino goes down when Kiriloff is available, leaving Gordon, Arraez, Larnach, and Sanchez beyond the primary 8 in the field to be DH and bench.  Good question, too, as to which of those gets added when we have to have 13 position players at end of next month

Lots more questions when Sonny returns - one of the starting six is going to have to move into the shoes of Winder as long reliever #1, and then Winder returns when/if a starter goes down (probably back to long relief with the #6 starter back in the rotation, with Winder being starter #7).  

When we're capped at 13 pitchers at the end of May, you are going to be down to one long man (demoted 6th starter) and Jax goes down as we'll need 7 one-inning guys (right now Smith, Duffey, Coulombe, Duran, Thielbar, Stashak and Pagan).  Can't have six starters and two long relievers with a 13-man pitching staff.  Does Winder take the place of one of the short guys?  Does Jax?

 

[ToddlerHarmon]

7 hours ago, The Mad King said:

I'd like to see Jax stick. Having him come out of the pen and pitch 3 innings comes in handy.

In terms of age, ceiling, and current performance, Jax seems the one to keep over Stashak. I have to believe he is permanently in the pen now

[Todd Nelson]

Well we haven't needed much long relief yet because of excellent starts, who'd a thunk it?  Bo

th Jax and Winder are worth keeping around, but then again St Paul is just a half hour away. The glaring weakness in the Line-up is the occupant at first base..... how long do we need to keep the strike out king for the occasional meteor into the stands? Urshela, Kiriloff,Arraez,Larnach can all play first .  Celestino needs daily play for development so if Buc is healthy I would send him down.

[MN_ExPat]

19 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Right now I see both Winder and Jax as solid in the bullpen, filling needed, albeit different, roles. Both have looked ready, and better than some of the more experienced options. I'm going with talent.

June is a ways off and by that time management should have a good idea of which pitchers need a rest, which are trending up, and who might be headed elsewhere.

As of right now, I agree this seem to be the most plausible scenario in the short term.

[mnfireman]

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

They are in the upper tier for starter innings pitched  

But they are middle of the pack, 16th of 30, in IP/Start @ 4.8, 26th of 30 in Pitches/Start and are tied for the most starts of 80 or less pitches. The BP has been used plenty and will continue to be.

[justinone]

First of all if Sanchez is healthy then Godoy needs to go down. Winder probably goes down, but I like having a couple long guys because of how short a leach the starters are getting. I also think Thielbar, Stashak, and even Duffy need to show they can still consistently get good hitters out. We have young options that should be getting looks.

[miller761]

Feel like Jax is progressing and has the potential to be an effective 1 inning guy out of bullpen. Uptick in velocity and progression of his slider make him a better long term choice than Duffy.

[stringer bell]

48 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

But they are middle of the pack, 16th of 30, in IP/Start @ 4.8, 26th of 30 in Pitches/Start and are tied for the most starts of 80 or less pitches. The BP has been used plenty and will continue to be.

Okay. Middle of the pack in what I am sure is a tightly bunched IP per start stat. That they have been effective tells the story about # of pitches IMHO. It does not appear that the Twins will have any workhorses, especially if they opt to use a 6-man rotation again. I have opined that Winder should be optioned because the Twins are using him in a very limited role, one in which he only pitches when there is a short start. I think a better-constructed ‘pen might consist of two guys who could work long(ish), but also could be in the plan as one-inning guys which could occur 2-3 times per week. 

[stringer bell]

I think health is the decider for demotions     after Sunday’s game. The team needs to have Sánchez available on a daily basis to demote Godoy. Celestino’s roster case is strengthened if Buxton can’t be a full go. On the pitching side, uncertainty about Ober and Gray probably is enough to assure that Winder sticks around as a starter in waiting.