A Few Random Twins Thoughts

[stringer bell]

For those among us that have seen the earth orbit the sun more than 50 times, the St. Paul paper had a writer named Don Riley who weekly had an item "scattergunning from the catbird's seat". In a similar fashion,I have several thoughts and have thrown them together for comment:

1) Has anyone seen two wackier late inning victories than the Twins 2-1 win on Friday and the 5-4 walk-off on Tuesday?

2) Raise your hand if you thought at the start of the season that the best lineup against a right hander would include Nick Gordon in left field and Luis Arraez at first base.

3) Is it time to move Carlos Correa down in the lineup temporarily? He seems to be fighting himself at the plate. 

4) With three of the next four opponent starters left handed and a roster reduction coming, I think Garlick will be getting his chance, but if he doesn't hit soon he could be the roster casualty.

5) Dylan Bundy's stuff doesn't make anyone go "wow", but his command has been beyond excellent and he knows how to pitch.

6) Things are going well for the Twins now, but the bullpen doesn't have enough impact arms. They either need to go outside the box and convert a minor league starter or outside the organization (my preference).

7) Sano, Correa and Polanco are off to miserable starts, but there are dozens of established major leaguers who aren't hitting. 

? I’ll believe that Alex Kirilloff is healed when he starts driving the ball regularly. I'm not convinced he will contribute to this year's team.

9) The schedule in May for the Twins is Charmin soft. They need to take advantage and run of a 20-win month.

10) Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have been terrific so far. This shouldn't have been taken for granted. Maybe the Twins' staff knows something about developing pitchers after all.

Please comment on any of these items or any random thoughts you might have about the 2022 Twins.

 

[tony&rodney]

Loved the lineup last night and had thought Gordon in LF and Araez at 1B would be the best usage of the current roster against RH pitching. Also, Larnach fits well as a DH. Buxton, Correa, Polanco, and Urshela didn't hit but they are the best we have defensively and that showed in the game last night and they will hit. 

Kirilloff needs to show that he can swing with authority before he is recalled. I agree that this next stretch may be Garlick's last opportunity to prove himself because Larnach is doing well and Gordon is far superior defensively.

[wsnydes]

I leave Correa right where he is for right now.  Get him those extra ABs now.  Dropping him in the order might actually hamper him.  He got an even later start than most, so he just needs ABs in my view.  

[nicksaviking]

My thoughts are that I can't believe how few left handed pitching options there are. Not just that the Twins only have four lefties between the majors and AAA, but when I was searching the bottom feeder teams to see who might be available in a trade, there was next to nothing worth grabbing from most of those rosters either.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them pick up Oliver Perez. Which would likely make no one happy except Oliver Perez.

[Muppet]

1. Without stopping to look up pitching stats over the past five years, I'll rely on my faulty memory to tell me that one of the things the Twins have exceeded at in most years is turning a bullpen of unknowns and nobodies into a surprising solid relief staff. Everyone is willing to give the hitters grace and allow them to heat up as the months turn warmer, but everybody hates on the pitchers after 1 or 2 terrible outings. This is likely why Rocco will keep slotting in Thielbar and Duffy in high risk situations when it is their time. Getting three easy outs when there is a six run blow out won't give them confidence, but finally finding their arms in a tight situation will. 

That's my long-winded way of saying the bullpen will be fine. Give it time. 

2. Also... Max Kepler is starting to look like an MVP. He is clobbering left handed pitching, and doing so in a way that makes him an asset in the lineup, even more so than in the one year he was merely good. 

3. I'm done with Sano. I don't care if he heats up. I'd rather have him replaced with anybody and have Arraez in DH every day so the defense can be better. We have people that an hit home runs. Let's get some offensive diversity. Who has as a high batting average with runners in scoring position? That's more important. 

4. We should trade a starting pitcher. Let's get someone who can play first base and a couple of hot shot prospects. 

If this team can keep hitting against good teams, this season will be interesting. 

[Mike Sixel]

27 minutes ago, Muppet said:

1. Without stopping to look up pitching stats over the past five years, I'll rely on my faulty memory to tell me that one of the things the Twins have exceeded at in most years is turning a bullpen of unknowns and nobodies into a surprising solid relief staff. Everyone is willing to give the hitters grace and allow them to heat up as the months turn warmer, but everybody hates on the pitchers after 1 or 2 terrible outings. This is likely why Rocco will keep slotting in Thielbar and Duffy in high risk situations when it is their time. Getting three easy outs when there is a six run blow out won't give them confidence, but finally finding their arms in a tight situation will. 

That's my long-winded way of saying the bullpen will be fine. Give it time. 

2. Also... Max Kepler is starting to look like an MVP. He is clobbering left handed pitching, and doing so in a way that makes him an asset in the lineup, even more so than in the one year he was merely good. 

3. I'm done with Sano. I don't care if he heats up. I'd rather have him replaced with anybody and have Arraez in DH every day so the defense can be better. We have people that an hit home runs. Let's get some offensive diversity. Who has as a high batting average with runners in scoring position? That's more important. 

4. We should trade a starting pitcher. Let's get someone who can play first base and a couple of hot shot prospects. 

If this team can keep hitting against good teams, this season will be interesting. 

Which bad team is trading for a starting pitcher, and giving up prospects?

Because I doubt a good team is trading a good first baseman.

[PatPfund]

Great list! Here are some of mine, with many inspired by yours!

1. One of the joys of watching baseball is seeing things you never saw before. The chaotic Tiger game ending was one of those for me; some of the worst base-running I’ve seen recently ends up with a walk off win?

2. What on Earth is going on with Larnach at 2B. The other day he’s standing on two, there is a double to the wall in the right-center gap, and he can only make it to third (creating chaos behind him), and in case you thought it was a fluke, the very next night he is at second, a double hits the CF wall on the fly, and Larnach is so slow getting home there is actually a throw that nearly gets him. Someone needs to talk to the young man.

3. I’d leave Correa where he is (I’m sue he’ll hit), and I’m pretty sure Garlick is toast whether he hits or not, because of the numbers crunch (especially if the Twins keep 14 pitchers). I can’t see sending Larnach down right as he is starting to hit.

4. Anyone tell the Twins the IL stays are down to 10 days? Sanchez already has missed 7 but is still listed day-to-day meaning they’ve been playing a player short. Retro-name him until he is fully healthy, because abdominal stuff can linger if not healed, and they probably have to DFA Godoy again to send him down. (So they need to be fully sure in case they lose their backup catcher.)

5. I believe the Twins have plenty of impact bullpen arms in their system, they just aren’t on the 40-man. Minaya was excellent in late inning situations for the Twins last year, and he’s been closing some in St Paul this year. Jharel Cotton has a solid MLB history, was excellent in one outing for the Twins this year, and looks excellent in St Paul. Yennier Cano is a 28 y.o. Cuban signee with late inning power stuff, and now some AA and AAA seasoning. All three are far better than Stashak, Thielbar, and Duffey. So is Smeltzer.

6. I see Thielbar even has an option left. OMG Twins, use it, and let him figure things out in the minors (if he can). Dude’s 35, are you keeping the option in case you need to send him down in his 40s?

7. I’d keep the 6 man rotation going when Gray gets back until one of the SPs can’t hack it. You now have an extra arm available through May, and it lets the starters stretch out while controlling their innings pitched. (And some of them are restricted in that way.) There will be plug-in-ready starters in St Paul in Winder and Smeltzer if you need them.

8. Umm. Your #8. Dead on accurate. Until Kirilloff shows he can hit with the wrist, he doesn’t belong in MLB. Larnach is better in left, Sano is better at first (because he’ll probably hit at some point. right?), and the backups for both are better than .190-no-power-Alex. If rehab visits have game limits, send him down until he is right. (Went 0-4 yesterday.)

9. If I had to pick a starter and a relief pitcher who will turn into pumpkins (not due to injury), I’d pick Bundy and Smith. Both right now have been excellent, but being old, I always refer to the first six weeks of the season as “Geoff Zahn” time. Zahn pitched in the late ‘70s for the Twins, and he always seemed (admittedly in my head) to be 5-2 in mid-May, and finish the year 9-10. It was almost as if the junkballing tosses befuddled hitters until they got their feet under them, and then they’d beat him like a rug the rest of the year. (Martin Perez is the same sort.) Bundy and Smith look to have Zahn-like magic. Hope I’m wrong.

[Muppet]

47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which bad team is trading for a starting pitcher, and giving up prospects?

Because I doubt a good team is trading a good first baseman.

I have no idea, but usually good quality starting pitching is in demand. We seem to have a surplus at the moment. 

[nicksaviking]

55 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which bad team is trading for a starting pitcher, and giving up prospects?

Because I doubt a good team is trading a good first baseman.

And that would have to be one heck of a pitcher to get a starting 1B AND a couple of hot shot prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Muppet said:

I have no idea, but usually good quality starting pitching is in demand. We seem to have a surplus at the moment. 

Bad teams don't trade prospects... And good teams aren't giving up a starting player right now.... So, how would this work?

[Linus]

I missed the game today. What happened to Ober?  79 pitches to get 11 outs?

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I missed the game today. What happened to Ober?  79 pitches to get 11 outs?

Groin pull ... don't know yet how bad

[Game7-91]

8 hours ago, wsnydes said:

I leave Correa right where he is for right now.  Get him those extra ABs now.  Dropping him in the order might actually hamper him.  He got an even later start than most, so he just needs ABs in my view.  

Awesomely prophetic!

7 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Bundy and Smith look to have Zahn-like magic. Hope I’m wrong.

Prophecy II, hope you're wrong but suspect you're right. Zahn also went 18-8 in 1982, but he was in Anaheim by then, so it doesnt count. And that's the whole story .

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, Muppet said:

1. Without stopping to look up pitching stats over the past five years, I'll rely on my faulty memory to tell me that one of the things the Twins have exceeded at in most years is turning a bullpen of unknowns and nobodies into a surprising solid relief staff. Everyone is willing to give the hitters grace and allow them to heat up as the months turn warmer, but everybody hates on the pitchers after 1 or 2 terrible outings. This is likely why Rocco will keep slotting in Thielbar and Duffy in high risk situations when it is their time. Getting three easy outs when there is a six run blow out won't give them confidence, but finally finding their arms in a tight situation will. 

That's my long-winded way of saying the bullpen will be fine. Give it time. 

2. Also... Max Kepler is starting to look like an MVP. He is clobbering left handed pitching, and doing so in a way that makes him an asset in the lineup, even more so than in the one year he was merely good. 

3. I'm done with Sano. I don't care if he heats up. I'd rather have him replaced with anybody and have Arraez in DH every day so the defense can be better. We have people that an hit home runs. Let's get some offensive diversity. Who has as a high batting average with runners in scoring position? That's more important. 

4. We should trade a starting pitcher. Let's get someone who can play first base and a couple of hot shot prospects. 

If this team can keep hitting against good teams, this season will be interesting. 

1) agreed, the bullpen has been “fine” it’s not a strength, but I think Duran will move into higher leverage and hopefully they can develop some more quality relievers as the season goes.

2) great to see Kepler finally look like his potential again in ‘19. Keep it up!

3) I still think Sano has a lot of DH potential with a strong eye at the plate and power swing. That being said, good to see Arraez play 1B well as a reserve and continue to hit for high average.

4) no way would I reduce the depth of the starting pitching staff. They used 16 starting pitchers last year, and the fewest they’ll use in ‘22 is 10.
 

If Winder is number 7, they’ll have a chance at a good rotation for 162 games. If they start trading the players that give them depth like Archer or Bundy, the doldrums of August could see a bunch of starts by quad A scrap heap guys.

injuries already have, and will continue to chip away at the perceived depth all season long. You can never have too many SS, CF, C or SP. Never

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Considering Larnach, Gordon and Kepler have all figured out which end of the bat to hold, I’d think Celestino is the roster casualty from the outfield. They’ll need a platoon outfielder and Garlick is pretty much it.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Considering Larnach, Gordon and Kepler have all figured out which end of the bat to hold, I’d think Celestino is the roster casualty from the outfield. They’ll need a platoon outfielder and Garlick is pretty much it.

Celestino has the range in Center Field that cannot be replaced.

[gunnarthor]

My ST prediction was that the offense would be fine, the pitching would not. I'll stick to that for now but the pitching has been a nice early surprise. If they keep pitching like that, they're a lock for the playoffs. But it's also worth remembering that they looked like world beaters against the White Sox and Tigers. Obviously, playing the central is a nice benefit to this team but it'll be interesting to see how they play outside the division.

I'm not worried about Polanco, Sano, or Correa, they all will come around. If Buxton stays healthy, he'll win the MVP. Ryan keeps looking like he is a solid ML pitcher. I keep waiting for teams to adjust to him to see if he can adjust back but so far, he's been fantastic. I've always been a Bundy fan, so I thought he'd be good.

[ToddlerHarmon]

The lineup and defense would look good with Arraez, Jeffers/Sanchez, Kirilloff, Polanco, Urshela, Correa, Larnach, Buxton, and Kepler. With Sano and Gordon and Celestino on the bench.

Sadly, the thoughts on Kirilloff might be right. Let this be the year his wrist heals while Sano can audition for getting his option picked up. That leaves an opening for Garlick or an older prospect. Contreras?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 hours ago, RpR said:

Celestino has the range in Center Field that cannot be replaced.

While I agree that Celestino is a better fielder, Gordon has 8 appearances in CF to Celestino’s 6.

[bighat]

19 hours ago, PatPfund said:

2. What on Earth is going on with Larnach at 2B. The other day he’s standing on two, there is a double to the wall in the right-center gap, and he can only make it to third (creating chaos behind him), and in case you thought it was a fluke, the very next night he is at second, a double hits the CF wall on the fly, and Larnach is so slow getting home there is actually a throw that nearly gets him. Someone needs to talk to the young man.

 

 

I liked all of your bullet points but this one jumped out at me because I've been saying the same thing. The other day during that nutty victory over the Tigers it was Larnach alone who was responsible for the baserunning clown show. I could see how he'd be freezing on Sano's line drive, but he was actually running back towards 2nd base as the ball was rolling around at the base of the wall in the deepest part of the park. What the heck was he doing? I mean, even if a baserunner completely misjudged that ball, they should have EASILY scored from second base on that ball. The fact that Larnach was just getting his foot on 3rd base when the ball was getting back to the infield tells me that the kid might have eye problems or something. Does he need glasses? I'm being serious.

If the Detroit catcher just holds the ball on that play, the Twins may not have scored at all that inning and lost the ballgame. What a terrible waste that would have been. Those baserunning gaffes can cost you games, or even a World Series. Ask Lonnie Smith.

[Linus]

Celestino needs to play wherever he is at. If Rocco won’t get him in there regularly then he needs to go to St Paul and play in all three outfield spots.  If he can hit a little he would be a great complementary outfielder for our current set up. You know, the guy they should have got years ago. 

[wabene]

19 minutes ago, Linus said:

Celestino needs to play wherever he is at. If Rocco won’t get him in there regularly then he needs to go to St Paul and play in all three outfield spots.  If he can hit a little he would be a great complementary outfielder for our current set up. You know, the guy they should have got years ago. 

Celestino looked pretty good yesterday and if he is gaining confidence, we've got something there. I am done with Garlic and Cave, well done. Having Celestino and Gordon as backup outfielders fits this defensively strong team well. The kind of defense the Twins have displayed makes our pitchers better and gets the starters deeper into games. Not to mention how fun it is to watch and picks up the whole team. Let these young guys figure it out with the bat, Garlic and Cave aren't good enough to hold them back.

[Number3]

All I know is they are 11-8 and no question the opponents have been very helpful and the pitching staff, subject of main concern heading into the season has carried them. My goal ( and the team is very aware of that) was just to be around the .500 mark going into May. After losing the first 2 at KC, that prospect was looking out of reach. Then the 1-0 win to avoid a sweep followed by the Twins sweeping 2 in a row at home. The Tampa series is interesting in that both teams are 11-8 and we will find out of the Twins have won 7 in a row or Sox and Tigers (and Royals) lost 7 in a row. I agree about not messing with the lineup.

Also glad that Twins won last 2 or 3 with Buxton not doing much. If Kepler and Correa come to life along with Buxton and Arraez its a dangerous lineup and the rest can fill in like they have been.

 

[beterday]

#4 Garlick wore out his chance when he was 10 yards off on his angle to catch what (I think, it was a few days ago) turned out to be a homerun.  Can't hit, can't field; agree that Twins have had adequate time to be "done with Cave and Garlick".

[stringer bell]

11 minutes ago, beterday said:

#4 Garlick wore out his chance when he was 10 yards off on his angle to catch what (I think, it was a few days ago) turned out to be a homerun.  Can't hit, can't field; agree that Twins have had adequate time to be "done with Cave and Garlick".

I agree that Garlick isn’t great in the field, but it’s not fair to judge a player on one play. Fenway’s right field is notoriously tough and the wind was really blowing hard that day IIRC. Later in that same road trip, acknowledged good outfielder Max Kepler played a catchable ball into a triple, it happens especially when the wind is howling.

 

Since the OP, Tampa has changed their starters, so the Twins might face only one lefty in Florida this trip.