3 Takeaways from Tuesday's Wild Walk-off Win

[Melissa Berman]

The melancholy Minnesota sports fans reeling from Timberwolves and Wild losses earlier in the evening who decided to flip their TVs over to catch the ending of the Twins game were treated to one of the most exciting albeit baffling endings of a game seen in a long time. Hey, a win is a win, right? Here are 3 of my Takeaways from yesterday's wild ending. 

1. Twins are in control of the division and this is the time to pull away

With two walk-off wins in a row, the bats heating up for players like Max Kepler and (hopefully) Miguel Sanó, Byron Buxton back in the lineup and performing as clutch as ever, and a Twins starting rotation that has an AL-best ERA of 2.60, the Twins appear to be firmly in control of the division and stand to continue to gain ground, especially considering what a mess top rival Chicago White Sox are in. The White Sox are on an 8-game losing streak, including the last 7 losses against 3 division opponents, are plagued by a host of injuries to impact players like Liam Hendriks, Luis Robert, and Eloy Jimenez, and have continued to commit a circus of errors in the field. The Sox lead all the MLB in errors with 20. The Twins, by comparison, have 8.  If the Twins can sweep the Detroit Tigers, march into the AL East and play competitively vs the middle-of-the-division Tampa Bay Rays and the bottom-of-the-division Baltimore Orioles, they should hopefully continue to gain some ground. The Twins will go head-to-head with the current second place Cleveland Guardians on May 13-15 when the Twins host them for a 3-game series.

I have no doubt that the White Sox will end up being fine in the end and will start wracking up some wins once they get some key players back and can calm things down in the field, but until then, it is important that the Twins put as much ground between the teams as possible.  The takeaway here is that the Twins are on a 5-game winning streak, the momentum is with them, and the team is having fun again. That's worth a lot. 

2. Miguel Sanó is starting to arrive 

Despite Sanó having what some seasoned Twins fans will regard as his perennial start-of-season slump, it appears that he might be starting to break out of it. This season, it has been apparent that the Twins have decided to stick with him and “play him into the ground,” so to speak, in hopes that he will work through his slow start at the plate. So far this season, Sanó has played in 16/17 games and has not been pinch hit for, even in situations like Sunday April 24's series finale vs the White Sox in which some fans were screaming for Carlos Correa to pinch-hit for him in a bottom of the 10th inning, down by 1, do-or-die situation.  For those who have been in the "just stick with him" camp rather than the "send him down to St. Paul to figure things out" boat, it is gratifying to see him being to experience some degree of success at the plate, even though it has mostly continued to be in the form of singles here and there. His at-bats are becoming better quality, his strikeouts are becoming more infrequent (though, as a hitter he is always a high strikeout hitter, even in good times), and his statistics and specifically plate discipline (chase rate and walk percentage) mirror the profile of a consistent hitter who so far has just had some bad luck. Twins Daily's own Nick Nelson had a great tweet illustrating this fact. 

As we know, Sanó did not get his first hit until the 7th game of the season at Boston, and his batting average is up to a modest .096, but he has quite the hole to climb out of, and it will take some time before his batting average reflects improvement. Baby steps. But just by watching him (everyone's favorite highly scientific "eye test") he is clearly not as lost at the plate or as frustrated as he was to start the season. When he gets ahold of the ball, he is mashing it. Take a look at that exit velocity- the 9th highest exit velocity in the whole MLB. Of note, Sanó has been nothing but an asset at first base as well. Yes, Tuesday's 9th inning hit could have almost been an error, and his baserunning on the play could have been disastrous. No, the Sanó of a few weeks ago wouldn't have had that hit. The takeaway: Sanó was the hero of yesterday's game and big plays like this will hopefully inspire the confidence he needs to continue to return to form. Stick with him a little longer and he's going to be one of the best power hitters in MLB. 

3. We probably need to work on our baserunning a bit

It is no question that yesterday's 9th inning walk-off was quite fortunate and arguably even lucky for the Twins. When Sanó singled on a line drive to right field, Trevor Larnach held at third, Gio Urshela kept running when Sanó continued to second, and we all collectively screamed at our TVs. Tigers catcher Eric Haase threw the ball over third base into left field (airmailed it, we would have called that in softball) allowing two runners to score and the Twins received a happy reprieve. That play could have easily turned into a double play, and if Kepler had not struck out before Sanó/Haase did not overthrow it, that play feasibly could have feasibly been a triple play. Rewatching that play with the camera focused on Sanó, it appears his eyes are solely fixed on the ball and he isn't paying attention to what the other baserunners are doing. Somewhat relatedly, the Twins also have had three runners thrown out at home so far, including a memorable and unfortunate play vs the Mariners when Sanó was sent home and was ultimately thrown out by approximately a mile despite the base paths being only 90 feet. The Twins have been caught stealing three times this year, which appears to be about league average. Yesterday worked out in the team's favor, other times might not. As the Metrodome light-up board once said, "Walks Will Haunt," and bad baserunning undoubtably will too. 

Do you have any other takeaways from this memorable game? Leave a COMMENT below.

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[PDX Twin]

I'm sorry, but an .096 batting average is not modest. A .236 batting average is modest. A .196 batting average is simply poor. An .096 batting average is lower than many (most?) pitchers back in the days when we expected pitchers to bat. I'm ready to not have his automatic out in the lineup every time through.

[Melissa Berman]

12 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

I'm sorry, but an .096 batting average is not modest. A .236 batting average is modest. A .196 batting average is simply poor. An .096 batting average is lower than many (most?) pitchers back in the days when we expected pitchers to bat. I'm ready to not have his automatic out in the lineup every time through.

Yeah "poor" "decrepit" something along those lines would've been a more accurate word choice. But we're only 17 games in and sample size is small. There are still some really high and really low averages out there. He started off so horrendously in those first 6 games specifically that he needs to dig out of that BA hole. I'm cool giving him some more time. He's trending up. Agree to disagree!

[Game7-91]

Thanks Melissa, I like your positvity?, hope you are right on Sano. I just cant see the SP sustaining this over the full season. Then again, early returns says there is no favorite in AL Central. 8 straight L's, ugly ones at that, are a blaring red flag that CWS have a lot of work to do to fix multiple areas currently failing that roster. So youre right, if Twins can get some steam it could set them to maintain relevance into ASG....after that who knows. Seems highly doubtful anybody will run away with this division.

[Epravens]

A couple of take-aways: Rocco's use of the bullpen following an off day was atrocious. Repeat he is the worst manager in franchise history and no one else is even close. I, too, see a glimmer of spark in Sano and the baserunning fiasco last night started in the 3rd base coaches' box. For the most part the starting pitchers are pounding the zone and that may result in some solos but a very encouraging sign. Mostly good if they can survive the managerial mistakes as they did in 2019 (and the shortened 2020).

[TwinsChupacabra]

Sorry, I can't come close to agreeing with the Sano comments.  He is one of the worse defensive 1st basemen in the league, he's a strike out king, a rally killer, a terrible baserunner, and if he doubles his average, he's still below the Mendoza line.  Can't wait for him to go away.  It sucks that Rocco puts in the lineup everyday.  And some of this optimism is based on Grossman dropping the ball?    I do agree on the division race part-the Central is so terrible, that the Twins just might win it.

[Brandon]

I am more concerned with Theilbar then I am with Sano.  What's up with him so far this year?  

I think Sano will still get close to 40 HR's and have his option picked up.  and next season he will be a full time DH.  I doubt Sanchez will be back next season.  Though if he can be an average C this year and he hits 25+ HR's then maybe.  I also think Urshela has been doing a great job so far as an Arreaz light.  .304 ave and .370 obp.  

On a side note.  I would like to see Kepler, Polanco, and Sano spend their whole career here just to see how many HR's and RBI come from that 2009 international league signing class for us.  It would be cool to see if they could combine to hit 1000 career HR's for us.  They are currently at 368.  It would definitely be fun to watch as time goes on.  

[ashbury]

In other contexts the past week or two I've been talking about the importance of "clean innings" by members of our bullpen.  No pitcher throws a perfect game every time, not even for one inning.  But the fewer the baserunners, the less damage is done when the inevitable home run or error occurs.

Yesterday's ninth inning is a perfect case study.  If Soto had managed to retire the two guys he walked, Sano would not even have come to the plate to deliver his scorcher, nor would there have been baserunners ahead of him to, ahem, confuse matters.

As has been drummed into our consciousness for decades, "Walks Will Haunt."

[DocBauer]

1] Since his transition to 1B, I've seen Sano make a few bad plays no doubt. But he's been solid overall and great with his stretch and digs. I have no real complaints other than some bad mental gaffs at times. And history has shown us that Sano WILL get hot and straighten out and put up some good numbers, even carry the team here and there. No question his slow starts are maddening. I think there are 2 camps in regard to Sano, those who understand and accept, and those that just don't like him and never will. 

FWIW, I think he's gone after this year. AK, Larnach, Miranda, possibly Martin, there just won't be room.

2] One thing I learned a long time ago whether it be luck on something, an easy sale, or winning a game on a fluke play, you NEVER apologize! Because it's "owed" for all the times bad luck or extreme effort wasn't enough, or someone just made an extraordinary play to steal a game away from you. In 2021, a season when anything and everything could go wrong DID, the Twins were on the other side of weird plays. Again, NEVER apologize for a win. You were the better team that day.

3] Forget Sano for a moment, Kepler and Jeffers are heating up. Eventually Polanco and Correa will as well. Larnach is starting to look like he's figuring it out. This lineup has the potential to be at least top 10 in the AL.

4] Speaking of defense, it's been pretty damn good. I can't wait for Miranda to heat up and be part of the future, but I'm loving Urshula's glove and professional AB. Correa has been as advertised with the glove. Polanco looks great at 2B. On and on. Even Sanchez hasn't been awful at catcher by any means. And please, stop ragging on Arraez after a couple bad plays. He's an OK 2B and pretty solid at 3B. A couple bad plays doesn't diminish good past play. But I love him at 1B and have questioned before why he wasn't used there before now. He's not ideal length for the spot, but not every 1B in history, even some very good ones, were over 6 foot plus. (Funny how Arraez is compared to Carew so often as a hitter and is now playing 1B).

5] Never saw the rotation being this good, even with hope. Can it continue? Paddack is getting better. Ryan and Ober are young and part of the future. Archer, even in limited IP, looks an awful lot like the very good pitcher he was 3yrs ago. Can Bundy keep doing at least close to what he's been doing? And Winder looks like he's ready if anyone goes down.

6] Bullpen is my only fear at this point. We didn't add a quality arm to help Rogers, and then we traded Rogers. And now Alcala is out for how long? It's not like everyone is a dumpster fire or have been bad. And Duffey looked much better last time out. But this is the one area that scares me still.

 

 

 

[Aerodeliria]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

In other contexts the past week or two I've been talking about the importance of "clean innings" by members of our bullpen.  No pitcher throws a perfect game every time, not even for one inning.  But the fewer the baserunners, the less damage is done when the inevitable home run or error occurs.

Yesterday's ninth inning is a perfect case study.  If Soto had managed to retire the two guys he walked, Sano would not even have come to the plate to deliver his scorcher, nor would there have been baserunners ahead of him to, ahem, confuse matters.

As has been drummed into our consciousness for decades, "Walks Will Haunt."

This! There is something about BBs...they are gut-wrenching when our pitchers are issuing them (see yesterday) and they give us hope when they are being issued to us (see yesterday).

[Melissa Berman]

13 hours ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

Sorry, I can't come close to agreeing with the Sano comments.  He is one of the worse defensive 1st basemen in the league, he's a strike out king, a rally killer, a terrible baserunner, and if he doubles his average, he's still below the Mendoza line.  Can't wait for him to go away.  It sucks that Rocco puts in the lineup everyday.  And some of this optimism is based on Grossman dropping the ball?    I do agree on the division race part-the Central is so terrible, that the Twins just might win it.

Nevertheless, Sanó currently has a Rdrs Defensive Runs Saved Above Average of 1

[Trov]

My take away from that crazy last play is that this year maybe we will get some breaks our way.  Last year early in the year we were the team blowing leads on plays like that.  We were the team throwing the ball away on stupid plays and losing close games.  Right now, we are getting the other team to make bad plays get wins.  Lets not forget Anderson and Abreau giving us a win in Sox series. 

That being said, I want to comment on the running play.  Larnach first I feel played it bad.  I do not know if he was looking to tag, or was playing half way like I think he should have.  Yes, it hit the glove, but if he is playing half way he did not need to sprint back to bag he could have confirmed the catch or not and get back with plenty of time.  Then Urshella should have never left second when Sano came running to second.  Urshella should have seen Larnach on third and just stayed on second, like Larnach saw Urshella coming and stayed on third.  Sano could have easy returned to first base as no one was covering there.  Of all the players Sano actually was the best of them.  He saw the throw go to home, he does not know if a runner is going but assumed they were, and he should follow the runners to the next base.  He also could have always returned to first with no issue once he sees Urshella on second.  Now, I will admit Sano took way too long to notice the other runners and should have returned sooner, but it all worked out. 

[Melissa Berman]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

My take away from that crazy last play is that this year maybe we will get some breaks our way.  Last year early in the year we were the team blowing leads on plays like that.  We were the team throwing the ball away on stupid plays and losing close games.  Right now, we are getting the other team to make bad plays get wins.  Lets not forget Anderson and Abreau giving us a win in Sox series. 

That being said, I want to comment on the running play.  Larnach first I feel played it bad.  I do not know if he was looking to tag, or was playing half way like I think he should have.  Yes, it hit the glove, but if he is playing half way he did not need to sprint back to bag he could have confirmed the catch or not and get back with plenty of time.  Then Urshella should have never left second when Sano came running to second.  Urshella should have seen Larnach on third and just stayed on second, like Larnach saw Urshella coming and stayed on third.  Sano could have easy returned to first base as no one was covering there.  Of all the players Sano actually was the best of them.  He saw the throw go to home, he does not know if a runner is going but assumed they were, and he should follow the runners to the next base.  He also could have always returned to first with no issue once he sees Urshella on second.  Now, I will admit Sano took way too long to notice the other runners and should have returned sooner, but it all worked out. 

This is all excellent analysis, especially on the running play. It was definitely a chain reaction situation, but at least it worked out in the end! Hopefully complete the sweep today. I do agree that it seems like things might just go our way this year and hopefully we will get some breaks. Hopefully we can stay healthy

[Blyleven2011]

I'm not ready to cut sano any slack ,

He has no concentration in the game , takes 3 pitches for strikes without swinging  , oh my , he can't identify the pitches , maybe ....

Baserunning there was no need for sano to run to second because his run didn't matter,  what mattered was the 2 runners ahead of him scoring the tying and winning run , 

Not sure why larnach held at third but ursela should have easily been on third if larnach came to score the tying run on sano error / hit ....

The twins do need to practice Baserunning  and keep there minds on the game and ball ...

Just the facts ,