Twins Daily 2022 Draft Coverage, April 28

[Jeremy Nygaard]

We’re another week closer to the mid-July draft and activity is starting to pick up. As we get into May, the focus begins to tighten. While the picture still appears very broad to almost everyone, the tea leaves begin to occasionally drop. But that’s the fun of drafts: It’s up to you whether you want to believe them or not.

There’s been enough happening on the national level for Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and ESPN to update their prospect rankings. 

Baseball America expanded their listing to a Top 300. That covers, roughly, the Top 10 rounds. Unranked college seniors, however, will be very popular choices in the second half of the top 10 rounds as it significantly helps teams stretch their bonus pools. But if you’re wondering if a guy might go in the Top 10 rounds, this is a great resource. 

MLB Pipeline updated their Top 150. The biggest headline here is the big jump Jackson Holliday took since their last rankings, going from 51 to 4. Jackson, the son of Matt, plays a premium position (shortstop) and will likely continue to move up the board (even though there’s only so much room left to go). He made it into my Top 10 a few weeks ago and while Baseball America was higher quicker, MLB has now caught up.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel pushed out his second set of rankings. One thing that Kiley does that I really appreciate is try to tie draft classes into the big picture of prospect rankings. Basically, his top eight draft prospects would all slot into the Top 125 prospects in the minor leagues, with his top prospect, Druw Jones, slotting into the 4-22 range.

It’s been written about plenty, but these rankings reflect the biggest story of the 2022 draft: There’s a complete lack of college pitching prospects. 

The top college pitching prospect by publication:

Baseball America - #20 Blade Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee. Tidwell seems like the only first-round lock, and that’s assuming that his medicals check out after having some shoulder issues.

MLB Pipeline - #19 Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga. Though he’s ranked in the Top 20 here, he misses the Top 40 for the other two publications.

ESPN - #19 Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama. Prielipp had Tommy John surgery last season and is throwing bullpens, but may not even be able to throw for scouts before the draft. 

Baseball America also completed their first staff mock draft of the season. 

In the first version, they have the Twins selecting Daniel Susac, a catcher from Arizona, at eighth overall. The writer who selected him for the Twins cites his better chance to stick behind the plate than Kevin Parada and calls him “one of the best hitters in the country.”

EDIT: Within an hour after this article was submitted, Kiley McDaniel dropped this bombshell. As a huge Lesko fan, we'll dive deeper into this next week.

We’re status quo in the Top 10. When 10/10 match MLB and 9/10 match Baseball America and ESPN (though the order is different), you feel like you have a pretty good handle on the current climate.

JEREMY'S TOP 10 PROSPECTS

1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit)

2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep

3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.)

4.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.)

5.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly

6.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU 

7.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech

8.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech

9.) Andrew Susac, C, Arizona 

10.) Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep (Oklahoma State commit)

MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS

• Baseball America - v2.0 (4/1/22) /  v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 300 (4/27/22) / Staff Draft v.1.0 (4/20/22)
• MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 150 (4/25/22)
• The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22)
• ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) / Draft Rankings 2.0 (4/27/22)
• Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) 
• Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22)
• My MLB Draft (1/18/22)
• Prospects Live v1.0 (1/4/22)

View full article

[SarasotaBill]

Lesko drops and the Twins should pounce.

[Dman]

21 minutes ago, SarasotaBill said:

Lesko drops and the Twins should pounce.

Yeah I agree.  That first year is just instructs mainly anyway.  He will have TJ surgery out of the way and shouldn't mess his time table up much.  I think I like Lesko more now than before the news of surgery.

 

[Mike Sixel]

SS or C for me, given the rankings. But, I'd be ok with Lesko too.

[Trov]

I remember Giolito fell in draft because of injury, he has panned out fine.  I would lean toward Lesko if he drops to 8.  From what I read his change up elite, which is always one of the pitches that takes time to develop.  If he is advanced with it, then less likely he just got by with velo in high school. 

[Sielk]

At first glance, drafting a HS pitcher who just had TJ surgery scares the hell out of me. But then again, so many pitching prospects have it before they even reach the majors. So maybe it isn't that big of a risk (beyond the risk of drafting a HS pitcher in the top 10 in general).

I am admittedly not a fan of drafting players who are already far down the defensive spectrum. The offensive bar they need to clear just becomes so high that there isn't a ton of upside anymore. I would always prefer SS, CF, C or a pitcher.

I have seen this draft class being touted as really good but is it just me who is a little underwhelmed by the scouting reports of the top prospects? Apart from Druw Jones and maybe Lesko, these prospects just don't sound that exciting to me, at least not when compared to other draft prospects I've seen ranked in the top 10 in previous years.

(Not that I know anything, that's just my impression when reading the scouting reports. )

[chpettit19]

Jackson Holliday would be the guy I was hoping for with a realistic chance of being available at 8 if the draft were today. I don't want anything to do with a pitcher at the 8 spot, but a lot of that has to do with me being generally against drafting HS pitchers high and there's no college arms worth even talking about in the 8 spot.

If the plan is not to be drafting anywhere near the top 10 again for a long time (and why wouldn't that be the plan?) I take the highest upside up the middle player available at 8. As @Sielk said, I prefer SS, CF, C or P at the top of the draft. If you're in the top 10 you have to be taking a swing at a star. I won't be super upset with Lesko being the pick, but I'd definitely go with one of the catchers or SSs if the Twins have them all graded similarly. Have to nail this pick since the hope is they're not close to the top 10 again for a while.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

SS or C for me, given the rankings. But, I'd be ok with Lesko too.

Given how things stand I think one of the two catchers will be there at number 8 and at the very least there will be an elite bat at number 8.  Not a great year for shortstops this year IMO.  I think the more plodding position player bats will be available to the Twins but will have to wait and see.  The Cubs or Nats might grab Lesko since he has ace potential and that is so hard to find.  Certainly he is a risky bet but the payoff could be huge. We know first hand how good Santana was with his elite changeup.  It is a feel pitch though and after TJ that could be problematic.  Hard to say. If a team a head of us does grab a pitcher then there will be more options for hitters for us.

The Twins are pretty risk averse and seem to be in more need of bats than arms so I could see them skipping on Lesko if he is still there.  They also seem to feel they can identify arms later in the draft and make them work.  Depending on who is there at number 8 it might be hard for them to go pitcher.

I would like to know where fangraphs stands on the pitching in this draft as I feel they have better analysis for arms than the other sites.  They haven't updated in a while now.

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

Yeah I agree.  That first year is just instructs mainly anyway.  He will have TJ surgery out of the way and shouldn't mess his time table up much.  I think I like Lesko more now than before the news of surgery.

 

Assuming he has the new version of Tommy John (with the extra band) that all the Twins prospects are having, he could be ready by February. 

[gunnarthor]

Dumb question, but what are our picks this year? Do we have any supplemental picks?

[Dman]

6 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Dumb question, but what are our picks this year? Do we have any supplemental picks?

It looks like 8, 48, 68 if the MLB site is correct.  However, I have seen reports out there that indicate we lose our supplemental pick at 68 for signing Correa and that would move us to 8, 48, 86.  So I guess the big question is are supplemental picks included in a teams top three picks or are supplemental picks technically different than a normal draft pick since are given and can be traded etc.  Maybe someone else on this board can clarify.

[gunnarthor]

Just looking at a few of the players but Termarr Johnson is really interesting. Usually you don't see 17 year old, 5'10" second baseman at the top of draft boards. But his hit tool sounds amazing. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

It looks like 8, 48, 68 if the MLB site is correct.  However, I have seen reports out there that indicate we lose our supplemental pick at 68 for signing Correa and that would move us to 8, 48, 86.  So I guess the big question is are supplemental picks included in a teams top three picks or are supplemental picks technically different than a normal draft pick since are given and can be traded etc.  Maybe someone else on this board can clarify.

My understanding is that the Twins lost their 3rd round pick (88th overall I believe) for signing Correa so 8, 48, and 68 should be accurate.

[tony&rodney]

If Lesko is the best high school pitching prospect in ten years and has such high marks for three pitches, take him if available. The Twins need to go athletic, which means taking a vacation on drafting plodding corner players who project to hit the crap out of the ball but whose primary position is DH. The only bat first player I'm interested in is Juan Soto and we cannot draft him. 

[Aichiman]

I hope the Twins take one of the catchers.

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

21 hours ago, Dman said:

It looks like 8, 48, 68 if the MLB site is correct.  However, I have seen reports out there that indicate we lose our supplemental pick at 68 for signing Correa and that would move us to 8, 48, 86.  So I guess the big question is are supplemental picks included in a teams top three picks or are supplemental picks technically different than a normal draft pick since are given and can be traded etc.  Maybe someone else on this board can clarify.

The last time the Twins lost a pick (Ervin Santana?), I was convinced that by the way the rule read they weren't losing a supplemental pick... but I was wrong and that was the pick they lost. 

I'm not sure if the new CBA cleared that up, but I'm operating under the assumption they're losing their Comp. Round B pick.