Let's Cut Miguel Sanó Some Slack

[Matthew Taylor]

While he is notoriously a slow starter, Miguel Sanó is off to his slowest start yet in 2022. While it’s tempting to write him off completely, might there be reason to cut Sanó some slack?

Miguel Sanó has had an April to forget in 2022 for the Minnesota Twins. Through 15 games, Sanó has just five hits and an abysmal OPS of .380. Sanó has just one extra-base hit and has statistically been the least valuable player in baseball in this early season with an fWAR of -.07.

Miguel Sanó having yet another poor start has left Minnesota Twins fans extremely frustrated with the first baseman and questioning whether it is time to cut bait. Sanó is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and with Alex Kirilloff nearing his way back from injury and Jose Miranda on the doorstep of the Majors, it might make sense to move on from him in favor of youth.

I certainly have voiced my own frustrations with Miguel Sanó.

Miguel Sanó’s advanced numbers, though, paint a different picture and portend that Sanó’s early struggles are largely fluky and that better days are ahead. Let’s dig deeper into the numbers.

First, let’s look at his contact numbers. Through the first handful of weeks, Miguel Sanó ranks 11th in all of baseball with an average exit velocity of 93.2 MPH, right on par with his career average exit velocity of 93.1 MPH. Further, Sanó’s hard-hit percentage is at 50%, tied for 24th in baseball. Finally, his barrel numbers are at his typically high rate, with a barrel percentage of 15.6%, just a tick below his career average. 

So, if his contact numbers are at their typically high level, then it must be his poor plate discipline that explains his terrible numbers, right? Wrong. Sanó is actually showing better discipline at the plate in 2022 than he ever has in his career. Thus far in 2022, Sanó owns a career-low K% of 29.3 with a BB% of 13.8, the second-highest mark of his career. Additionally, Sanó has a career-low chase rate and whiff rate of just 16.9% and 33.3%, respectively.

Just look at Sanó’s statcast percentile numbers. Does this look like someone who should be hitting .083 and worthy of being cut?

If Sanó’s contact rates are at his typically-elite levels, and his plate discipline numbers are at career-best levels, why is Miguel Sanó having such a terrible start to the season? 

Simply put, it’s been bad luck for the Dominican. 

A simple, yet admittedly not perfect, way to gauge luck in baseball is by looking at batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Over a large enough sample size, the BABIP for most MLB players will settle at around .300. Heading into the 2022 season, Miguel Sanó had a career BABIP of .329. This season, though, Miguel Sanó is sitting at a BABIP of .097, the second-lowest mark in baseball behind Kansas City’s Carlos Santana.

Another way to look at bad luck is to compare a player’s actual numbers to his expected numbers and look at the difference. The best numbers to look for this is weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). wOBA is a catch-all offensive statistic that best encapsulates offensive performance. xwOBA then looks at a player's process statistics such as exit velocity to determine what a player’s numbers should be, as we all know that luck is a big part of the game of baseball. Miguel Sanó currently has a wOBA of .192, compared to a xwOBA of .334. The -0.142 difference between those two numbers is the sixth-largest discrepancy in all of baseball, showing that Sanó has been one of the most snake-bitten players in 2022.

On Tuesday night, Miguel Sanó teased what could be the start of some converted luck as he smoked a 108 MPH single over right fielder, Robbie Grossman's, head which (in the wildest way possible) wound up being a walk-off hit for the Twins.

 

It has been extremely frustrating to watch Miguel Sanó bat in 2022, but all of the advanced numbers show that better days are ahead for the right-hander. It can be tempting to want to give up on Sanó and want to move onto other options, but the upside that Sanó brings is sky-high. Let’s cut Sanó some slack as a big summer is coming for the powerful first baseman.

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[srlarson]

They need to sit him down for a week to 10 days......

Last night was  just one more reason.......has a terrible night at the plate, only getting on because Grossman is a subpar fielder....then in his oblivious state.....makes a terrible base running error...not once but twice.....watch the play.....going first to second.....then trying to push and go to third....this guys head is not in the game.....loads of talent..no discipline.......just want to slap him upside the head to wake him up......

But bailed out by two terrible defensive plays....lucky our division cannot play defense.....

cannot have your starting 1st baseman hitting under .100........time to sit him down.  

 

[Whitey333]

Sano always goes through this.  Pretty soon he will be hot for a week or two then go back to his normal ways.  He is just playing himself off the Twins at end of season.  No way Twins should pick up his option this off season.  Whatever happened to the "eye test"? You can tell he's been awful by watching his plate appearances.  He looks lost.  He is basically an automatic out in the batting order.  He's hitting .083 and still strikes out way too much.  He will come out of it I hope but it just goes to show what kind of " stats" one can find to make a bad hitter look good.  Hitting in bad luck, oh please. When he hits a hot streak then everything will be forgotten until he goes cold again.  He needs a change of scenery to get his career going again.  It's obvious the manager and coaches can't fix him.

[TopGunn#22]

I, as a fan, have cut Sano about as much "slack" as I am able.  Lost at the plate.  Bailed out of a base running blunder by a T-Ball looking end of the game throw-around by the Tigers.  You can't trade him for anything right now.  But if Kirilloff proves himself healthy and ready to go soon, I play him at 1B and sit Sano for a week or two.  He can get plenty of work in at the batting cages under the stadium.  Send someone to check on him every other day or so.  

[MinnInPa]

he's a rally killer with his constant K's. last nite..1st two batters on..takes called strike 3. He just can't pick up pitches.... this will be his last year as a Twin.  So many twins with 30% K rate..sickening and Boooooring. Hopefully the next wave of players....Miranda....Martin...Lewis..Kiriloff.. etc will come up and lessen the K's...and push the next K machine.. Larnach ...to the bench

[rv78]

Talk about bad luck. If the Tigers would have had a good rightfielder in the game Sano's hit would have been another out and the Twins lose. Bad luck for the Tigers. We've seen Robbie Grossman play defense and he doesn't belong on the field. All of the numbers you throw out about exit velocity and hard hit rate only mean to me that he is the same ol' Sano and won't ever be a good hitter except for those 2 or 3 weeks when he finds a good luck streak and can raise his batting average to .190. Are we to expect Sano to get off to a good start, ever? Do the games in April mean nothing? He has struck out in his career at a rate higher than anyone ever has in the history of the game. I've watched him so many times swing at pitches he shouldn't and watch pitches go by that he should swing at that I can't stand to watch him bat anymore. His approach at the plate is almost exactly opposite of what it should be. Let's face the facts, he's always been an average to poor hitter regardless of how hard he hits the ball and that is what he is. If he hasn't changed by now he never will. I say good riddance and the sooner the better.

[Blyleven2011]

I like your optimism that sano outlook is sky high ,,, 

With few comments  already posted you are the minority  for cutting sano any slack ...

Sano is completely lost as a batter , base runner and a fielder ... not to mention confidence  ....

His concentration  on the game sucks ,,, plain and simple  ....

When they get paid the kind of money they do there is no cutting them any slack because they are suppose to be professionals  that are playing a kids game  ....

Baseball is hard , round ball hit by a round bat  , but the rules of the game are simple  , execute  , execute  and execute  , adjustments  , adjustments and adjustments  

 

 

[Dman]

I think the OP is correct on this one.  Last year (2021) Sano's OPS in April was 550.  BA was .111 for the month.  Not sure why he is so snake bit in April, maybe ask Correa?  At any rate his numbers last year didn't pick up until mid May so there are a few more weeks of bad games ahead most likely.  By the end of May for the Month of May he had a 750 OPS and for the month of June he had an 800 OPS.  Not great numbers for who he should be as a 1st baseman but not horrible either.  

Looking at it another way he has been so bad to this point he has no where to go but up.  I have been saying this the last three years but I am still a Sano believer and I think he is going to have a good year this year maybe even a great one.

[Otaknam]

Stow the “advanced metrics” on Sano. He is lost at the plate AGAIN. And he will be lost again and again this season while mixing in a hot week here and there to give his apologists hope. That’s who he is, an all or nothing guy. The Twins just have to decide if they can keep tolerating it or if they have a replacement who is better. 

[gunnarthor]

This post is about right. It's been bad luck. His at-bats have generally been fine. If his babip was normal, his line would look a lot more like Kepler's line. Sano has a good approach, doesn't chase much, and barrels up the ball really well. It's been 50 at bats. 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

57 minutes ago, srlarson said:

They need to sit him down for a week to 10 days......

Last night was  just one more reason.......has a terrible night at the plate, only getting on because Grossman is a subpar fielder....then in his oblivious state.....makes a terrible base running error...not once but twice.....watch the play.....going first to second.....then trying to push and go to third....this guys head is not in the game.....loads of talent..no discipline.......just want to slap him upside the head to wake him up......

But bailed out by two terrible defensive plays....lucky our division cannot play defense.....

cannot have your starting 1st baseman hitting under .100........time to sit him down.  

 

No way I'm slapping a man that size upside the head. 

[GNess]

His value is partly tied to his past track record of power and the ability to hit home runs. So far he has one.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, srlarson said:

They need to sit him down for a week to 10 days......

Last night was  just one more reason.......has a terrible night at the plate, only getting on because Grossman is a subpar fielder....then in his oblivious state.....makes a terrible base running error...not once but twice.....watch the play.....going first to second.....then trying to push and go to third....this guys head is not in the game.....loads of talent..no discipline.......just want to slap him upside the head to wake him up......

But bailed out by two terrible defensive plays....lucky our division cannot play defense.....

cannot have your starting 1st baseman hitting under .100........time to sit him down.  

 

Him going to 3rd was the correct play. The winning run was on it's way to the plate and the Detroit throw should have gone home (wouldn't have gotten him anyways). If that run is thrown out at the plate Sano should be at 3rd, not 2nd. Going to 3rd was 100% the correct play. Going to 2nd was a massive mistake that turned out for the better after Urshela made his own massive mistake and Haase bailed them both out with whatever kind of mistake is bigger than massive.

[KFEY93]

1 hour ago, srlarson said:

They need to sit him down for a week to 10 days......

Last night was  just one more reason.......has a terrible night at the plate, only getting on because Grossman is a subpar fielder....then in his oblivious state.....makes a terrible base running error...not once but twice.....watch the play.....going first to second.....then trying to push and go to third....this guys head is not in the game.....loads of talent..no discipline.......just want to slap him upside the head to wake him up......

But bailed out by two terrible defensive plays....lucky our division cannot play defense.....

cannot have your starting 1st baseman hitting under .100........time to sit him down.  

 

Shout it from the Mountain Tops! All of this. Dudes a liability wherever he stands on the field. The leash they give him should be chocking him by this point. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The "high exit velo" advanced metrics do not take into consideration slow running. Nor failure to hustle. Nor poor base running decisions.  If a player runs slowly, he will make an out more often than a speedy runner, even if they have the same exit velo. 1) slow running, or 2) swinging and missing the baseball or 3) taking strikes, or 4) continuously hitting the balls where the majority of the defenders are standing...these 4 examples have nothing to do with "luck". I'm not saying Mr. Sano does all or any of these examples. Just saying. 

[PopRiveter]

"Let's Cut Miguel Sanó Some Slack"

 

You had me at "Let's Cut Miguel Sanó" !

 

 

Sorry, I'm not sure I necessarily agree with that joke, but I had to make it. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

How come Sano's "hit" wasn't recorded as an error? The ball hit Grossman's glove. Used to be an automatic error in the old days.

[baul0010]

1 hour ago, srlarson said:

They need to sit him down for a week to 10 days......

Last night was  just one more reason.......has a terrible night at the plate, only getting on because Grossman is a subpar fielder....then in his oblivious state.....makes a terrible base running error...not once but twice.....watch the play.....going first to second.....then trying to push and go to third....this guys head is not in the game.....loads of talent..no discipline.......just want to slap him upside the head to wake him up......

But bailed out by two terrible defensive plays....lucky our division cannot play defense.....

cannot have your starting 1st baseman hitting under .100........time to sit him down.  

 

his defensive at first base... Not great either.

He's DH.  If we can make that work with Nelson Cruz we should be able to make it work with Sano.

[MMMordabito]

Let's not.  Maybe at .196, but not at .096 with 40% Ks and poor D.   The deep dive into the stats is equivalent to turd polishing.

Any bad luck being associated with xStat (shoulda, coulda, woulda) was all evened out yesterday with all the blind squirrelling.

Edited April 27, 2022 by Sconnie
Circumventing swearing filter

[Seth Stohs]

28 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

How come Sano's "hit" wasn't recorded as an error? The ball hit Grossman's glove. Used to be an automatic error in the old days.

He mini-jumped and fully extended. That's not an error. 

[Trov]

1 hour ago, srlarson said:

They need to sit him down for a week to 10 days......

Last night was  just one more reason.......has a terrible night at the plate, only getting on because Grossman is a subpar fielder....then in his oblivious state.....makes a terrible base running error...not once but twice.....watch the play.....going first to second.....then trying to push and go to third....this guys head is not in the game.....loads of talent..no discipline.......just want to slap him upside the head to wake him up......

But bailed out by two terrible defensive plays....lucky our division cannot play defense.....

cannot have your starting 1st baseman hitting under .100........time to sit him down.  

 

First, I am all for sitting him, cutting him or whatever.  I get the writers point that his numbers should be higher overall, but he had an at bat where he never swung.  So he did not chase or whiff, but he struck out on 3 pitches.  Hard to whiff or chase if you never swing, but hard to get hits too.  

However, I would point out Sano actually did not have a bad base running play, it was Urshella that did.  Why do I say that?  Sano reacted to the throw to plate, he was assuming either a runner was going home or had already.  It is smart to follow the runners in this situation.  Also, there is no 1st baseman behind him so he can get almost to 2nd with no issue of getting back.  He was not going to get into a run down.  Was he thinking this?  Maybe, maybe not.  It was Urshella who took off to third when he should not have.  He should have stayed on 2nd and told Sano to run back to 1st, instead he thinks Sano is forcing him to 3rd and never realizes until he is almost to 3rd that Larnach is standing there.  

Who made the worst decision of them all in this case?  The catcher for Detroit.  Other than the terrible throw, he was not going to get the lead runner out, and tying run in Larnach as he was on 3rd alone.  So maybe he can get Urshella in a run down, and get him out, but that could have left Larnach a path to get home, to at least drawing a throw home.  Yes, getting that 2nd out would have been good for Detroit, but the catcher should have just let the runners return to their bases and play it safe.  Thankfully he tossed the ball to middle of left field letting 2 runs score. 

[terrydactyls]

My opinion is that this article proves that "advanced numbers" are made up to provide excuses for bad performance.  You can slap all the lipstick you want on his numbers but he is still hitting under .100.  That is just awful no matter how you gauge it.

[Unwinder]

Still holding out hope for Sano over here. Every baseball fan has got one guy who they want to see break out and prove everybody wrong. Sano is the guy for me.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Trov said:

First, I am all for sitting him, cutting him or whatever.  I get the writers point that his numbers should be higher overall, but he had an at bat where he never swung.  So he did not chase or whiff, but he struck out on 3 pitches.  Hard to whiff or chase if you never swing, but hard to get hits too.  

However, I would point out Sano actually did not have a bad base running play, it was Urshella that did.  Why do I say that?  Sano reacted to the throw to plate, he was assuming either a runner was going home or had already.  It is smart to follow the runners in this situation.  Also, there is no 1st baseman behind him so he can get almost to 2nd with no issue of getting back.  He was not going to get into a run down.  Was he thinking this?  Maybe, maybe not.  It was Urshella who took off to third when he should not have.  He should have stayed on 2nd and told Sano to run back to 1st, instead he thinks Sano is forcing him to 3rd and never realizes until he is almost to 3rd that Larnach is standing there.  

Who made the worst decision of them all in this case?  The catcher for Detroit.  Other than the terrible throw, he was not going to get the lead runner out, and tying run in Larnach as he was on 3rd alone.  So maybe he can get Urshella in a run down, and get him out, but that could have left Larnach a path to get home, to at least drawing a throw home.  Yes, getting that 2nd out would have been good for Detroit, but the catcher should have just let the runners return to their bases and play it safe.  Thankfully he tossed the ball to middle of left field letting 2 runs score. 

Urshella making his own mistake doesn't mean Sano's original decision to go to second wasn't a bad base running play. It was. It just didn't have a big consequence on it's own since he could've made it back with no issue since the 1B wasn't there. But "assuming either a runner was going home or had already" is a mistake and shows a great lack of situational awareness. It was 100% a mistake. Just wasn't the biggest mistake on the play.

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

He mini-jumped and fully extended. That's not an error. 

I'd have given it an error. He mini-jumped and mostly extended because he had a terrible read on it and didn't get to the spot. I understand why they didn't give him an error, but that ball should've been caught. The over then back route at about 75% speed cost Grossman and a competent fielder catches that ball.

It was Sano's best swing of the year, though. So that was good at least.

[USAFChief]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Urshella making his own mistake doesn't mean Sano's original decision to go to second wasn't a bad base running play. It was. It just didn't have a big consequence on it's own since he could've made it back with no issue since the 1B wasn't there. But "assuming either a runner was going home or had already" is a mistake and shows a great lack of situational awareness. It was 100% a mistake. Just wasn't the biggest mistake on the play.

Mostly agree, except I think Sano was well past the point where he could safely get back to first. He was farther from 1st than the 1st baseman.

Totally agree he has to be aware of the runners in front of him. 

[PopRiveter]

53 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

How come Sano's "hit" wasn't recorded as an error? The ball hit Grossman's glove. Used to be an automatic error in the old days.

10.05 Base Hits
A base hit is a statistic credited to a batter when such batter reaches base safely, as set forth in this Rule 10.05.
(a) The official scorer shall credit a batter with a base hit when:

(2) the batter reaches first base safely on a fair ball hit with such force, or so slowly, that any fielder attempting to make a play with the ball has no opportunity to do so;

(3) the batter reaches first base safely on a fair ball that takes an unnatural bounce so that a fielder cannot handle it with ordinary effort, or that touches the pitcher’s plate or any base (including home plate) before being touched by a fielder and bounces so that a fielder cannot handle the ball with ordinary effort;

The subsequent rules repeatedly make reference to "ordinary effort" on the part of the fielder. The scorer must have either thought Grossman had "no opportunity" to make the play (seems unlikely) or that it would have taken more than "ordinary effort." Seems to me the scorer thought it would have been extraordinary for Grossman to grab that ball on the run.

You certainly don't have to agree with his judgement.

 

[LA VIkes Fan]

I understand the author's point and agree with it, but only to a limited extent. We all know what Sano is as a baseball player- a steaky hitter with power who provides negative value on defense. He will carry the team for a couple of weeks at 2 or 3 junctures this season. He also will drag us down and cause us to lose games by missing opportunities to help the team like his brutal at bat in the 2nd last night watching 3 strikes go bay with a men on second and third and no outs. Inexcusably bad at bat. 

The question is does that provide what you need from a 1B/DH on a good, contending team? The answer is a resounding NO. no advanced metrics can change that answer - he's just not good enough if our goal is to actually contend. Do we have anyone any better? I think Arraez is easily better against RH pitching  so at most Sano should be the weak half of a 1B platoon. Kirilloff might be better so he should play every day when and IF he's ready. Bottom line is that Sano should be at most a part time player, trade bait if anyone will even give us a A ball lottery ticket or two for him, and gone after this season. 

[Harrison Greeley III]

Sano's first month of the season splits for wRC+
 

2022: 22

2021: 68

2020: -67

2019: 139 (Juiced ball, started in May)

2018: 97

With Sano, I've noticed that for the last few years he often fouls off or misses the biggest meatball of the at-bat in the first month. If only there was a way to have him in AAA till May. I also notice the 'See! I told you you needed to be patient with Sano!' tweets in June seem routine and inevitable at this point. 

This would be more painful if Miranda was raking in AAA. I take consolation in that he seems to be waiting for the weather to warm up too. 

 

[chinmusic]

44 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

He mini-jumped and fully extended. That's not an error. 

Yeah, sure. But other right fielders (like Kepler, who's taller than Grossman) would likely have caught it. The difference between a win and a loss.