Max Kepler Poised to Breakout ... Again?

[Cody Christie]

Offensive production is down across baseball to start the 2022 season, and Minnesota has plenty of hitters that fit this mold. Max Kepler is showing signs that he may be poised to breakout.

Many Twins sluggers had remarkable 2019 seasons, including Max Kepler. In 134 games, he hit .252/.336/.519 (.855) with 32 doubles and 36 home runs. Obviously, the baseballs used that season have come under question, which is undoubtedly the case with Kepler. He posted an OPS over 100 points higher than his career average, so how does that connect to his start to 2022?

Since 2019, Kepler has hit .216/.315/.411 (.726) with a 101 OPS+ with 29 home runs in 185 games. So far this season, Kepler is getting on base at a higher rate (.361 OPS), but his slugging percentage (.300 SLG) is over 130 points lower than his career mark. With offense down across baseball, he still has a 103 OPS+, which puts him above the league average. There are some positive signs in his underlying numbers. 

For the first time in his career, Kepler has an average exit velocity of over 90 mph, putting him in the 67th percentile among MLB hitters. He has also done an excellent job of working counts in his favor as his BB% ranks in the 88th percentile. Kepler has also been able to avoid striking out, as his K% (77th percentile), Whiff% (88th percentile), and Chase Rate (87th percentile). While all of these numbers look good, some simple fixes might help him break out. 

One of Kepler’s previous issues has been his tendency to pop up weakly, which results in easy-outs. He is clearly focusing on this issue in 2022, which has resulted in a 5.5 launch angle. He has averaged a 15.1 launch angle for his career, and the MLB average is 12. His low launch angle has resulted in him hitting the ball on the ground over 50% of the time, which is over 12% higher than his career average. If Kepler can adjust his launch angle slightly, he may see better results that correspond to his increase in average exit velocity. 

Fastballs are one area where Kepler has the most offensive success, and his slugging percentage on those pitches is another area that points to him being close to a breakout. Last season, he posted a .462 slugging percentage when facing fastballs, which was his highest total on any specific pitch type. In 2022, his slugging percentage has dropped to .292 when facing fastballs, but his expected slugging is .513 on those pitches. His hard contact should result in a higher slugging percentage as the weather improves. 

Finally, Kepler’s batting average on balls in play (BAbip) is another sign of him turning it around in the weeks ahead. So far in 2022, he has a .256 BAbip, his highest total since 2017. His current .220 batting average is also significantly lower than his BAbip, and that may point to him being unlucky. If a few more of these hits fall in, all of his numbers look better to start 2022, but that seems to be a trend with Minnesota’s hitters not named Buxton.

At this point in his career, one must wonder if Kepler can make significant changes to his offensive approach. He is in the prime of his career, but he has accumulated nearly 3,000 big-league plate appearances. He can make some minor changes in 2022 to get better results, but will he be able to make those adjustments in a depressed offensive environment?

Do you think Kepler can breakout in 2022? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

View full article

[Michael (ClassicMNTwins)]

 Excellent video, gives me hope Kepler is actually making adjustments, appears to be hitting more to left field - even making some big knocks against left-handers, including E.Rodriguez tonight. Was very nice of him to cooperate and make you look good, smart with this article!

[wsnydes]

Kepler's approach is, and always has been, good.  It's quite baffling that he doesn't hit for a higher average because of that.  Some of that is trying to hit into the shift, but that can't be all of it.  Weak contact adds to that.

One thing that I noticed in Sunday's game is that you could see him trying to go up the middle or to leftfield.  If he's going to have any sustainable success, he's got to use all fields more.  Add in harder contact and he can be more like the hitter he was 2019.

[LastOnePicked]

I have been waiting for Kepler to reclaim his swing. Buxton and Correa can do more at the plate when they are backed by the threat of Kepler and Sano, too.

[rv78]

"If Kepler can adjust his launch angle slightly, he may see better results that correspond to his increase in average exit velocity. "

 

If Kepler can adjust his launch angle slightly, he can go back to hitting weak popups.

[Trov]

Kepler has always been on the cusp of being great, but never gets there.  Analytic people love him and keep saying he will break out.  He is who he is.  He has tried to make adjustments over his career that has not worked well.  He said last year he tried to work on more oppo hitting, but then that led to a funk in his swing.  I like him as a defender, and he is serviceable as a hitter, but do not expect him to carry the team on offense.  He is a good piece but just that a piece.  He will do some good things, like last night, but he will not carry us. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't know, his launch angle going from 15.1 to 5.5 seems like he has dramatically overcorrected. Like Joe Mauer, he doesn't play a position where I'd be satisfied with a bunch of line-drive singles; he's got to put the ball over the fence.

But unlike Mauer, he does seem to be purposefully making adjustments, so maybe he'll figure it out.

[Doctor Gast]

Keplers training with Kiriloff's looks like it's finally paying off. By his swing off of a video of one of his training sessions, look like he was going the other way. Maybe ST threw it off and now his swing is coming to it's desired groove. I was impressed that his much needed hits came off of LHP in yesterday's game. Go Kepler! I also liked Sano's swing with that single. Maybe some of our hitters are getting away from the management's desired swing to  finding their own productive swing

[tony&rodney]

Max is an excellent athlete. He is a fine outfielder with a strong arm and is a good base runner. Kepler also has a beautiful swing. He has not been an All Star level player but those skills listed above put him in the starting lineup. One example - Max scores from second base on Sano's hit last night where another less athletic player does not. Right now Kepler is still easily in the top half of the Twins list of every day players; he is quite valuable. If Max can keep his K rate down, stay in the zone with his swing, and continue to work on driving those strikes on the outer half to the opposite field he becomes even more valuable. Kepler has more skills and more promise than any outfielder in the Twins system not named Byron Buxton. Despite the frustrations of Kepler not leaping forward as a superstar, he brings value to the team that  cannot be replaced in the near future.

[LA VIkes Fan]

36 minutes ago, Trov said:

Kepler has always been on the cusp of being great, but never gets there.  Analytic people love him and keep saying he will break out.  He is who he is.  He has tried to make adjustments over his career that has not worked well.  He said last year he tried to work on more oppo hitting, but then that led to a funk in his swing.  I like him as a defender, and he is serviceable as a hitter, but do not expect him to carry the team on offense.  He is a good piece but just that a piece.  He will do some good things, like last night, but he will not carry us. 

I agree. A "breakout" for Kepler would be for him to hit .250-.260/.330/.460. Not bad, but hardly a middle of the order bat. Still a serviceable piece on a good team as the 3rd best hitting OF and his glove brings real value. He seems like he's make strides and he MIGHT improve to be a solid starter/#6 or #7 hitter in a good lineup. It really seems unlikely he will be anything more that that in his career.  In other words, a solid complimentary player but not someone who is a core carrier of the team. 

By the way, let's stop talking about how Kepler's 103 OPS+ makes him an "above average hitter". It makes him a roughly average hitter when you include everyone that plays, including catchers, shortstops, second baseman, and center fielders - all positions where the glove work is more important than the offense. Kepler is a Corner OF. He needs to hit better to play that spot. I would love to see the average OPS+ for corner OFs. I can't seem to find anything recent on the internet. The only one I found is multiple years old and says that the average OPS for a corner OF is .819, with .756 as "replacement level". Kepler's career OPS is .... .756. Replacement level if one believes these old stats. I'd love to see some updated or better ones. Still, this validates what I at least think Kepler has been - a good fielding OF with a below average, replacement level bat for a corner OF. I hope he adjusts and is better this year, I really do. But let's not pretend he's been more than that in his career.    

[PatPfund]

Man, I hope he is on the verge. Because the difference between competitive Twins (somewhere 5 games either side of .500), and dynamite Twins (winning the division, and maybe even a playoff game! or series!!!!) is getting regular and solid contributions from Kepler and Sano. (And both gave rays of hope last night. Yep, Grossman probably should have caught Sano's line drive, but that was a solidly struck ball going with the pitch; two things that look great on Miguel.)

[lukeduke1980]

I had noticed multiple opposite field hits over the weekend by Kepler.  Hopefully a sign of good things ahead.

[PopRiveter]

29 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Max is an excellent athlete. He is a fine outfielder with a strong arm and is a good base runner. Kepler also has a beautiful swing. He has not been an All Star level player but those skills listed above put him in the starting lineup. One example - Max scores from second base on Sano's hit last night where another less athletic player does not. Right now Kepler is still easily in the top half of the Twins list of every day players; he is quite valuable. If Max can keep his K rate down, stay in the zone with his swing, and continue to work on driving those strikes on the outer half to the opposite field he becomes even more valuable. Kepler has more skills and more promise than any outfielder in the Twins system not named Byron Buxton. Despite the frustrations of Kepler not leaping forward as a superstar, he brings value to the team that  cannot be replaced in the near future.

My eyes say you're right, but his actual quantifiable production always leaves me frustrated. I just can't figure how a player can consistently bring such a balanced, controlled, disciplined approach with his strength and speed and still seemingly underproduce at the plate year after year.

Why isn't he more than just an average player?

Is it hands, eyes, processor speed?  

[Harrison Greeley III]

He's doing what he needs to be doing. He apparently read the writing on the wall that if he didn't start hitting outer half pitches to left-center (particularly against lefties), he was going to get shifted/dead-ball'ed out of the league. The spray chart is looking more even in the early going. That's a good sign.

[tony&rodney]

34 minutes ago, PopRiveter said:

My eyes say you're right, but his actual quantifiable production always leaves me frustrated. I just can't figure how a player can consistently bring such a balanced, controlled, disciplined approach with his strength and speed and still seemingly underproduce at the plate year after year.

Why isn't he more than just an average player?

Is it hands, eyes, processor speed?  

I feel this too ... often. Twins fans are frustrated by Kepler because the expectations based on his athleticism are high. However, Max is still right behind Buxton, Polanco, and Correa as the most valuable Twins. In short - he is a keeper.

[tony&rodney]

57 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree. A "breakout" for Kepler would be for him to hit .250-.260/.330/.460. Not bad, but hardly a middle of the order bat. Still a serviceable piece on a good team as the 3rd best hitting OF and his glove brings real value. He seems like he's make strides and he MIGHT improve to be a solid starter/#6 or #7 hitter in a good lineup. It really seems unlikely he will be anything more that that in his career.  In other words, a solid complimentary player but not someone who is a core carrier of the team. 

By the way, let's stop talking about how Kepler's 103 OPS+ makes him an "above average hitter". It makes him a roughly average hitter when you include everyone that plays, including catchers, shortstops, second baseman, and center fielders - all positions where the glove work is more important than the offense. Kepler is a Corner OF. He needs to hit better to play that spot. I would love to see the average OPS+ for corner OFs. I can't seem to find anything recent on the internet. The only one I found is multiple years old and says that the average OPS for a corner OF is .819, with .756 as "replacement level". Kepler's career OPS is .... .756. Replacement level if one believes these old stats. I'd love to see some updated or better ones. Still, this validates what I at least think Kepler has been - a good fielding OF with a below average, replacement level bat for a corner OF. I hope he adjusts and is better this year, I really do. But let's not pretend he's been more than that in his career.    

Thing is ... who do you replace him with from the Twins system? Garlick? Larnach? We have already had multiple occasions to see outs turn into doubles with less athletic outfielders and batters hit the ball in the air more often in the launch era. Until the Twins employ someone who can cover the ground in the outfield, run the bases, and provide some offense, Kepler remains the second best option in the outfield. I, too, wish we could see an improved output at the plate on a more consistent basis from Max Kepler but I want him in the lineup every day. I'm not too keen on watching any of the others struggle in right field. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

I agree with you there. Kepler is better than the present alternatives, and probably still is even if/when Kirilloff comes back and plays LF.  We saw last night what a good glove in the corner OF can do and what it can't when Grossman butchered the play on the ball hit by Sano. Frankly, for all the talk we heard about the glut of corner OF prospects we supposedly have, it looks like we are short in that area at least in the high minors. I just think we need to understand what Kepler is - a good fielding corner OF with a below average corner OF bat. He hits 6 against RH pitching, 7 against lefties (although he's hitting lefties better than righties this year) and plays every day until somebody better comes along.  We can win with Kepler playing every day IF we get a consistently good hitting LF or 1B that can hit 4 or 5. Still working on that. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

33 minutes ago, Harrison Greeley III said:

He's doing what he needs to be doing. He apparently read the writing on the wall that if he didn't start hitting outer half pitches to left-center (particularly against lefties), he was going to get shifted/dead-ball'ed out of the league. The spray chart is looking more even in the early going. That's a good sign.

This is great to see. I agree that Kepler was getting shifted to the bench. High hopes that there is a .250-.270 hitter with 20 HR power and a .340 OBP in Kepler if he can hit the ball to LF.  Even better if he can find some power to the LCF gap. Then he really is a keeper. 

[Chachi]

When does this prediction start to win awards??  Kepler’s on fire!   Please do more of these!!!

[Seansy]

Two homers tonight. Well done.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Chachi said:

When does this prediction start to win awards??  Kepler’s on fire!   Please do more of these!!!

Five days from now, will be a much better indication.

[nicksaviking]

22 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't know, his launch angle going from 15.1 to 5.5 seems like he has dramatically overcorrected. Like Joe Mauer, he doesn't play a position where I'd be satisfied with a bunch of line-drive singles; he's got to put the ball over the fence.

But unlike Mauer, he does seem to be purposefully making adjustments, so maybe he'll figure it out.

His launch angle seemed just fine last night. This guy, always with the terrible takes!

[PopRiveter]

21 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I feel this too ... often. Twins fans are frustrated by Kepler because the expectations based on his athleticism are high. However, Max is still right behind Buxton, Polanco, and Correa as the most valuable Twins. In short - he is a keeper.

tony&rodney your faith in Kep sure is paying off at present. It's been fun to watch him proving you right this week. I've had hope this might come, but just hope, not faith. It changes this offense when Max is a productive offensive force. More of this please!

 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Kepler hitting like he did last night or over the last week would sure help fix the big hole with this offense - the lack of a #4 or #5 hitter. Even better he hits left handed and the other 2-4 guys that can hit are all RH except Arraez.  I don't think it's likely but ... a girl can dream, right?