Correa open to long-term deal with Twins

[RpR]

Falefa is doing well in New York.

[Riverbrian]

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Both parties really would have to want this. The Twins have a top prospect in St. Paul to deal with and they will probably have to count on inexperienced pitchers rather than acquiring a proven veteran. 
 

I just don’t like the idea of paying huge dollars for middle infielder in his mid to upper thirties. I think this is a real stumbling block. 

What "long-term" means is really the question to me. 7 years so he's signed through age 34? I could see that working out. 10 years so you have him until he's 37? No chance. 

As for Lewis, he shouldn't play a role in the decision at all. Give me multiple guys who can play up the middle. Especially with how much the Twins rest guys and move guys around. Give me more athletes and fewer Rooker and Garlick types. Martin-Buxton-Lewis OF with Miranda-Correa-Polanco-Kirilloff infield? Yes please. Obviously all those prospects won't work out and maybe Lewis is the one who doesn't work out and Miller is the next homegrown SS they have and then we're waiting 3 or 4 more years and signing Simmons type FAs. Too many SSs and CFers is never a problem a baseball organization should complain about. 

And they already seem pretty set on not acquiring proven veteran arms. At least more than back end "proven" guys.

[joefish]

On 4/26/2022 at 6:22 AM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

With Buck and Carlos, staying, I might even move from North Carolina to Minneapolis for mid-April through mid-October and Ft. Myers the rest of the time. I need a downtown Minneapolis condo near the ball park with indoor parking, and a Sanibel waterfront home  in Florida.  Oh yeah... plus I need 4-5 million bucks. 

Can I be your agent?

[kydoty]

Correa’s OPS went up 66 points today, but well below where Simmons was at the same point last year.  

[Tim]

On 4/26/2022 at 10:34 AM, Dman said:

I don't think I love the idea of paying Correa more than Buxton.  I know it shouldn't matter but the optics don't look good to me.  I know I am way more risk averse than most people, but I don't think I want Correa at 30M per year for 7 to 10 years.  I really, really like the guy but we will be paying a premium for out of prime years and I don't feel like that is something this team can afford.  I like the deal we have for him right now.  Would love to have him all three prime years but I think that would be it for me.

What in the world is this take

[Tim]

Carlos Correa is 27 years old, plays elite defense at a premium position, can absolutely rake at the plate and is open to staying in a small market.

People on this board are truly hesitant to pay him? Baffling

Prospects are Prospects. Truly could careless about what Royce Lewis or Austin Martin are doing at this moment. You have a proven, elite player, that's the only argument that matters here.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

Carlos Correa is 27 years old, plays elite defense at a premium position, can absolutely rake at the plate and is open to staying in a small market.

People on this board are truly hesitant to pay him? Baffling

Prospects are Prospects. Truly could careless about what Royce Lewis or Austin Martin are doing at this moment. You have a proven, elite player, that's the only argument that matters here.

I don't think people on the board mind paying him for his prime years.  Everyone on the board is happy we have him.  The issue is he wants a 10 year deal at likely over what Seager is getting which is 32M per year.  When he regresses like all players do, paying 34M per year to a player that is no longer elite is going to make teams in the future less competitive.  

How have you felt about Pujols and his salary the past few years? He was killing the Angels and their ability to buy more pitching.  How about Miguel Cabrera?  Right now Trevor Larnach is hitting better than he is for the minimum.  Long term deals have consequences.

Correa's own team.  The team that drafted and developed him wouldn't give him a contract over 5 years in length.  Why do you think that is?  Those prospects you don't care about, Jeremy Pena, Correa's replacement has a higher OPS than Correa and is a good defender himself.  Technically he is playing better than Correa right now for a fraction of the cost.  Lewis might be able to the same for the Twins.

All smaller market teams stay away from long term deals.  They just can't afford to tie up that much money in a player that is destined to regress significantly over time.

I like Correa and if he was willing to do a shorter term 5 year deal count me in.  I will be right there with you saying let's do it.  If it is 7 to ten years though I'd take my chances with Lewis.  It might actually turn out better.

[Tim]

34 minutes ago, Dman said:

I don't think people on the board mind paying him for his prime years.  Everyone on the board is happy we have him.  The issue is he wants a 10 year deal at likely over what Seager is getting which is 32M per year.  When he regresses like all players do, paying 34M per year to a player that is no longer elite is going to make teams in the future less competitive.  

How have you felt about Pujols and his salary the past few years? He was killing the Angels and their ability to buy more pitching.  How about Miguel Cabrera?  Right now Trevor Larnach is hitting better than he is for the minimum.  Long term deals have consequences.

Correa's own team.  The team that drafted and developed him wouldn't give him a contract over 5 years in length.  Why do you think that is?  Those prospects you don't care about, Jeremy Pena, Correa's replacement has a higher OPS than Correa and is a good defender himself.  Technically he is playing better than Correa right now for a fraction of the cost.  Lewis might be able to the same for the Twins.

All smaller market teams stay away from long term deals.  They just can't afford to tie up that much money in a player that is destined to regress significantly over time.

I like Correa and if he was willing to do a shorter term 5 year deal count me in.  I will be right there with you saying let's do it.  If it is 7 to ten years though I'd take my chances with Lewis.  It might actually turn out better.

I get that long terms deals have a tendency to flame out, yes. The Pujols and Cabrera deals though are so different from the situation with Correa.

Pujols and Miggy both signed those deals going into the season having turned 32. Both play the easiest position to replace, offensively and defensively in 1st, so not much value there as they age. I look at those contracts on what to avoid in a player.

Correa, who's 27, is the best defensive shortstop in baseball and has a career wRC+ of about 130. That's not even considering that fact that he might actually somehow reach a higher ceiling at the plate.

If he needs to move over to 3rd as his range diminishes in 5-6 years, fine. He's got plenty enough arm. You have a gold glove 3rd baseman.

I understand your point with Larnach and Pena, they look great, but they've also played MLB for about 5 minutes.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, kydoty said:

Correa’s OPS went up 66 points today, but well below where Simmons was at the same point last year.  

How would you rate Simmons effect on the team vs. Correa's effect on the team? 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

I get that long terms deals have a tendency to flame out, yes. The Pujols and Cabrera deals though are so different from the situation with Correa.

Pujols and Miggy both signed those deals going into the season having turned 32. Both play the easiest position to replace, offensively and defensively in 1st, so not much value there as they age. I look at those contracts on what to avoid in a player.

Correa, who's 27, is the best defensive shortstop in baseball and has a career wRC+ of about 130. That's not even considering that fact that he might actually somehow reach a higher ceiling at the plate.

If he needs to move over to 3rd as his range diminishes in 5-6 years, fine. He's got plenty enough arm. You have a gold glove 3rd baseman.

I understand your point with Larnach and Pena, they look great, but they've also played MLB for about 5 minutes.

Yeah not an apples to apples comparison to be sure, but still the same general point. 

I have been extremely impressed with Correa's defense to this point.  He is a defensive difference maker.  You are correct he could move to third if needed and possibly stay elite defensively there longer. His positive attitude makes him a coaches dream. 

Like I said I would love to have him but ten years is too long for me.  He is young but it would be a big gamble that would have have to pay off 7 of those ten years to make it worth it.  He and Buxton could take up 30 to 40%of all payroll for seven years.  There won't be much room to maneuver for seven years then because you have to fill 24 more spots.

[jimbo92107]

On 4/26/2022 at 8:11 AM, Dave The Dastardly said:

I've sweated like a pig and flopped like a dog but I don't think I ever flop sweated. Is it hard to learn?

Find a bar with Open Mic Night, sign up, and start with, "Folks, I've got a great routine for you." Then tell a bunch of crappy knock-knock jokes, reading from a book. Be ready to dodge thrown drinks. 

[TopGunn#22]

This is interesting.  The point has already been made that with all the young affordable pitching the Twins have and the probability of cutting contracts that aren't producing (Sano) with some young hitters also on the way (Lewis, Martin, Kirilloff, Larnach, Encarnacion) etc... they could actually afford to build around Buxton and Correa.  There's nothing wrong with Correa making more than Buxton.  Byron signed his contract with the understanding that his health issues held it down.  If Buxton has 3 consecutive healthy MVP type years then there may be a need to renegotiate, but with all the young, affordable talent in the pipeline the Twins could afford to pay 2 superstars.  

[AlwaysinModeration]

The Twins could have offered Correa a 10/300 contract this off-season, but they didn’t.  But they are committed to 3/105. Could there be a middle ground that both sides would agree to?

For example, perhaps the Twins could tack on 4/120, plus an option year for year 8?  That would be 7 years, 225, plus another 30 or so option.

Or maybe they need to rip up the original contract, and just go something like 6/200 for 33/year?

They could also be creative like giving him an opt-out after 3 or 4 years.

The Seager contract (10/325) was nuts. I think the Twins and Correa could find something that would work to get Correa to be here for a handful of years instead of just one.

[bunsen82]

2 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Or maybe they need to rip up the original contract, and just go something like 6/200 for 33/year?

The contract will be rip up so Boras can get all the fees, he is currently splitting them with the previous agent.  This is a 1 year deal.  If Correa wants a long term deal with the Twins he will have to instruct Boras to take a team friendly deal.   Will Correa do that-  it doesn't make since with what happened in Houston and switching agents,  it made Correa look like he was all about the money.  However,  maybe he really does enjoy it in Minnesota.  The question is at what price would he be willing to make it work.  The second is would the Twins even consider it with Lewis coming up the pipeline?   

[shortround81]

[Major League Ready]

28 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

The Twins could have offered Correa a 10/300 contract this off-season, but they didn’t.  But they are committed to 3/105. Could there be a middle ground that both sides would agree to?

For example, perhaps the Twins could tack on 4/120, plus an option year for year 8?  That would be 7 years, 225, plus another 30 or so option.

Or maybe they need to rip up the original contract, and just go something like 6/200 for 33/year?

They could also be creative like giving him an opt-out after 3 or 4 years.

The Seaver contract (10/325) was nuts. I think the Twins and Correa could find something that would work to get Correa to be here for a handful of years instead of just one.

All the young cost-controlled pitching could enable the twins to sign a premier player to a contract with an AAV higher than small/mid-market teams take on.  With this in mind, I think the twins could consider a $33M AAV for 6 years.  I don't think there is any possibility Correa would sign for 6/200 unless he sucks the rest of the year and even then, he would likely decline the opt out and hope for a bounce back year. 

Lindor turned down 10/325.  Semien got 7/175 at age 31.  Worst case scenario from Correa's perspective, he could stay here for 3 years, collect $105M and be a year younger than Semien when he hits free agency.  He is not signing for 6/200.  For superstar players it's all about their leveraging prime years to get paid beyond their value for as long as possible.  Correa will surely opt out of he rebounds and the market price is going to be much closer to $300M than $200M.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Brewers can afford to pay Christian Yelich $26m per season, the Twins can afford to pay Carlos Correa $30m a season.

But also keep in mind that Christian Yelich now hits like a post-concussion Joe Mauer.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

All the young cost-controlled pitching could enable the twins to sign a premier player to a contract with an AAV higher than small/mid-market teams take on.  With this in mind, I think the twins could consider a $33M AAV for 6 years.  I don't think there is any possibility Correa would sign for 6/200 unless he sucks the rest of the year and even then, he would likely decline the opt out and hope for a bounce back year. 

Lindor turned down 10/325.  Semien got 7/175 at age 31.  Worst case scenario from Correa's perspective, he could stay here for 3 years, collect $105M and be a year younger than Semien when he hits free agency.  He is not signing for 6/200.  For superstar players it's all about their leveraging prime years to get paid beyond their value for as long as possible.  Correa will surely opt out of he rebounds and the market price is going to be much closer to $300M than $200M.  

Agreed. The real question is.....can/should the Twins pay that? I'm hesitant, because I don't see them going over 155 or so for a payroll....OTOH, Buxton is signed to a reasonable deal, they have a TON of young pitching coming (fingers crossed), and enough young position players (outside catcher) to have a pretty inexpensive roster (let Sano and Sanchez go next year, then Kepler and Polanco when their deals are up and who is getting paid, other than Ryan?)......

That said, I see almost no chance they sign him to a 7 year extension on top of what they already have......

[Brock Beauchamp]

But I literally cannot think of a better way to push all the chips into the middle of the table than locking up Buxton and Correa for the next 6+ seasons.

It then allows the Twins to use Lewis - and possibly Martin - as trade chips and truly go big, either on elite pitching today or young, cost-controlled good pitching for the next several years.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But I literally cannot think of a better way to push all the chips into the middle of the table than locking up Buxton and Correa for the next 6+ seasons.

It then allows the Twins to use Lewis - and possibly Martin - as trade chips and truly go big, either on elite pitching today or young, cost-controlled good pitching for the next several years.

It would be chips all in for sure. And it would be fun to have those two here for a long time....

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But I literally cannot think of a better way to push all the chips into the middle of the table than locking up Buxton and Correa for the next 6+ seasons.

It then allows the Twins to use Lewis - and possibly Martin - as trade chips and truly go big, either on elite pitching today or young, cost-controlled good pitching for the next several years.

I think they would be hard pressed to deal Lewis even with Correa on the team.  He would be your SS, 3rd base, Center, Left, Right field insurance for injury's.  He would still be too valuable to trade IMO, but yeah i get your general point.

Still to Mikes point do you think they could live with a 10 year deal with little room to maneuver financially?  Especially with Lewis on the cheap in the wings?  He might never be quite as good as Carlos but should be close enough.  I just can't see this FO backing themselves into a corner like that.  It would be an awesome 5 years or so though, just hard to say how the other 5 work out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think they would be hard pressed to deal Lewis even with Correa on the team.  He would be your SS, 3rd base, Center, Left, Right field insurance for injury's.  He would still be too valuable to trade IMO, but yeah i get your general point.

Still to Mikes point do you think they could live with a 10 year deal with little room to maneuver financially?  Especially with Lewis on the cheap in the wings?  He might never be quite as good as Carlos but should be close enough.  I just can't see this FO backing themselves into a corner like that.  It would be an awesome 5 years or so though, just hard to say how the other 5 work out.

I don't see this front office doing that, either, but I'd probably do it without much hesitation. Sometimes, things just kinda fall in your lap and don't look a gift horse in the mouth. If Correa loves it here, maybe you can get him for $30m a year instead of $32m a year.

And if that happens, the team has the ability to move one or two of Celestino, Martin, Lewis, and Miranda. Some combination of those guys would bring back a lot in trade.

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think they would be hard pressed to deal Lewis even with Correa on the team.  He would be your SS, 3rd base, Center, Left, Right field insurance for injury's.  He would still be too valuable to trade IMO, but yeah i get your general point.

Still to Mikes point do you think they could live with a 10 year deal with little room to maneuver financially?  Especially with Lewis on the cheap in the wings?  He might never be quite as good as Carlos but should be close enough.  I just can't see this FO backing themselves into a corner like that.  It would be an awesome 5 years or so though, just hard to say how the other 5 work out.

I'm hard pressed to say anyone will be "close enough" to a guy that is one of the best players in the game. It could be a very long fall (or not) to Lewis.....

I do agree he could play any position....but if you are going in, you have to be willing to deal him for 2+ years of an elite pitcher, imo. No way they could afford that (given their budget), though, imo. 

[cHawk]

On 4/27/2022 at 1:03 PM, RpR said:

Falefa is doing well in New York.

ratio

[Dman]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm hard pressed to say anyone will be "close enough" to a guy that is one of the best players in the game. It could be a very long fall (or not) to Lewis.....

I do agree he could play any position....but if you are going in, you have to be willing to deal him for 2+ years of an elite pitcher, imo. No way they could afford that (given their budget), though, imo. 

I am just saying I would trade Celestino, Miranda, or Martin long before Lewis. If Correa  gets injured Lewis can fill in.  When Buxton gets injured Lewis can fill in and he even has Buxton level speed.  Lewis could start at third base and be an everyday player there but sub for other positions as needed.  If and that would be a huge if they kept Correa they will need to deal some players and I think Miranda and Celestino would be the first ones to go.  At some point they would need to decide on Martin versus Arraez as well.

[dex8425]

On 4/27/2022 at 12:53 PM, Squirrel said:

Where would he end up … Yankees? Maybe he doesn’t want to play in New York?

just a thought, which is likely not the case but saying it out loud anyway. 
 

Maybe whatever we offer, we include an unlimited supply of Jucy Lucy’s ?

He actually seems like a guy who wouldn't want to play in NY. Boston, Cubs, Angels could be fits and would do a long-term big $$ deal. Bogaerts is gone after this year and Story would continue to play 2nd. Cubs will need a SS. Perhaps St. Louis too? There aren't THAT many teams Twins would need to outbid, come to think of it. 

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If the Brewers can afford to pay Christian Yelich $26m per season, the Twins can afford to pay Carlos Correa $30m a season.

But also keep in mind that Christian Yelich now hits like a post-concussion Joe Mauer.

I would definitely not use Yelich as an example supporting a modest revenue team signing this type of deal.  He could definitely bounce back but right now he looks like the perfect example of why teams outside the top revenue markets generally avoid these deals.  Milwaukee would have been a real contender last year had they had another big bat.  I bet Milwaukee fans wish they had that $26M to invest in a couple bats this year. 

For me the question Mike posed does not have a definite answer, just shades of gray.  Just how good does the front office believe Lewis will be a SS.  If he has the ability to well above average at SS, I prefer to avoid the risk associated with such a high percentage of total payroll invested in one player for 7+ years.  I would roll with Lewis and invest the $32M wherever the greatest need exists.  I think we have a lot of mid rotation guys.  A Justin Verlander type deal could be a great alternative.

[stringer bell]

I wonder how much Lewis’ success (or lack of it) at Triple A, will figure in to how hard the Twins will pursue Correa. 

[Squirrel]

8 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I wonder how much Lewis’ success (or lack of it) at Triple A, will figure in to how hard the Twins will pursue Correa. 

Imagine having both on the team. I don’t think it has to be either/or