Sanos cold cold start

[RpR]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

 if the Twins are trying to get Miranda and/or Marin ABs on top of rotating Arraez and Urshela. Of course that's all subject to injury and performance.

Dear Lord let's hope not, Twins need to win , not be a AAA learning arena.

[Danchat]

I think it's pretty clear Arraez is the better 1B right now (since he's a butcher at 3B), so I say we play Luis there against righties and Sano there against lefties. Sano didn't heat up in 2021 until Rocco started platooning him in June, so maybe that could be a last-ditch move to get his season on track. If that doesn't work, it's time to move on and give someone in AAA a shot in his stead - it wouldn't be hard to match his current production at the plate and in the field.

[PatPfund]

23 hours ago, OptimisticTwinsFan said:

This is just completely disengenuous. Sano starts slow every year and has plenty of track record to not be written off as only a garbage time producer. This has nothing to do with advanced stats. The stats used were described to show how you measure that type of playstyle. Would you use the same stats to measure Arraez versus Buxton? Is Arraez bad because he doesn’t hit home runs? 
 

Again, I’m probably not even on keep Sano long term but this entire thread is basically ignorance about what is important when analyzing success for a player with an outlier hitting profile. And that’s different than talking about the metrics that matter for Sano and then saying that may be true but I dislike his style of play. 
 

Judging Sano based on his K% and batting average or balls play is the Arraez playstyle equivalent of calling him bad and an embarrassment because he doesn’t hit any HRs. To me, there are much more productize conversations to be had about Sano and the higher level style of play conversation by discussing Sano’s performance by analyzing how well he is foundationally doing the things that maximize the outcomes he’s trying to produce. 

Sano plate appearances should be judged based on how many pitches he is seeing, how many BBs he is drawing to offset the  weak contact in play, how often Sano is swinging at pitches in zones with high expected outcomes and  how often he is avoiding swinging at pitches that will result in soft contact if he makes contact as well as what percentage of the time is he hitting the ball hard and barreling the ball. 
 

Sano needs to do these things well to offset having fewer balls in play and a lower average. Measuring what matters, Sano is actually having some of the best ABs during a stretch of his entire career despite his production not reflecting that. Sano has a 13.5-14% BB which is among the best in the league. This isn’t surprising because he’s seeing the most pitches per AB in the league at 6.8. And when Sano is swinging he’s still hitting the ball extremely hard with the highest exit velocity behind Buxton with poor BABIP. As a bonus his K% is down to about 30% but really it’s for the most part an irellevant stat. 

Sano has not shown frustration and continue to be extremely patient and avoiding chasing averaging almost 7 pitches and walking at a rate that would be one the best handful in the league. His hard hit percentage suggests he’s swinging at the right pitches but is just a little by off. 
 

Sano may be actually poised for a bounce back year if he can maintain this profile. He is a slow starter in general but is actually probably much closer to going on a multi week year than it seems. This isn’t something broken. Sano is getting bad luck and in general getting under everything with a 72% FB rate and just a 14% GB rate. With slight timing corrections he’ll take off quickly here. 

 

Not sure why you picked me to quote for your comment since most of what you say has nothing to do with what I said; I don't quote most (any?) of the stats you roll through. Nor do I see anywhere I was insincere, or pretended less expertise than I have (which isn't much except that gained as a player and fan; pretty much like most of us), so I don't get the "disengenuous" crack.

Stats can be great, and advanced metrics can do great things for peering under the hood, but they also can multiply into a thousand details obscuring some basic truths. You can easily get lost in the number-ey weeds of barrel rates, et cetera, and lose context.

Here is a basic truth, I've come to (and no, you don't have to agree). Miguel Sano is not now, nor is he likely ever to be a consistent Top 15 First Baseman in Major League baseball. (Last year Bench Report listed him at #25. A list of fantasy 2022 1Bers, so just offense, put together on April 7 lists Miguel at #35; behind Eduardo Escobar.)

He is under contract, and trying hard, so the team needs to keep trying to get it to work (partly, because they don't have a better option). But they also need to plan to move on, because despite any metric you want to toss at me, I say a sub-15 first baseman in a 30 team league means a sub-par player. We can do better in the future. (And I'd love for Miguel to make me eat those words, but I ain't holding my breath.)

 

[Number3]

The "Sano starts slow" excuse is just that; an excuse. He is supposed to be a professional. Is it only his supporters on this group who believe that he starts slow or does he actually start a regular season expecting to waste 20 or 30 games? If he knows he starts slow why doesn't he address that BEFORE the season starts? I wish I had had that excuse in Little League when we only played about 16 games. Hey coach, don't worry I start slow.. Coach...."Hate to tell you this but the season is over."

When is the starts slow period over? 20 games, 30 games, 100 games?

[Blyleven2011]

On 4/25/2022 at 10:32 AM, Sconnie said:

 

there is more to baseball than batting average.

 

Yes there is and it's called production 

[bunsen82]

On 4/25/2022 at 12:11 PM, ashbury said:

He didn't used to.  His April 2017 was downright awesome.  He didn't have an April in 2019 but his May started out with a .963 OPS.  Starting in 2020 (which also lacked an April for everyone), the pattern emerged of a bad start.  It's worrisome.

Quote,  are you surprised to know that April 2017 was an extremely warm year.  As the temperatures go, so does Sano.   I wonder if he is just uncomfortable with the colder temps along with the fly balls not traveling as far.  In either case this is likely the last year for Sano in a Twins uniform.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

54 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Yes there is and it's called production 

How do you measure productivity?

[Blyleven2011]

10 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

How do you measure productivity?

I'm not sure you would understand  if you lean towards all the analytical metrics of the game today to decide and your age might have a different view of the game than mine  ....

 

[Number3]

37 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm not sure you would understand  if you lean towards all the analytical metrics of the game today to decide and your age might have a different view of the game than mine  ....

 

All I know is that the number 83 is a good golf score for a weekend golfer.

[wsnydes]

I came here looking forward to some bad Elton John lyrics, but found another Sano thread instead.

[laloesch]

On 4/25/2022 at 2:59 PM, Dave The Dastardly said:

Sano needs a change of scenery. Best for him, best for us.

I agree, i've seen enough.  The Twins have tried for years with him, but it's not working.  Time to move on.

[laloesch]

On 4/26/2022 at 9:38 AM, Number3 said:

The "Sano starts slow" excuse is just that; an excuse. He is supposed to be a professional. Is it only his supporters on this group who believe that he starts slow or does he actually start a regular season expecting to waste 20 or 30 games? If he knows he starts slow why doesn't he address that BEFORE the season starts? I wish I had had that excuse in Little League when we only played about 16 games. Hey coach, don't worry I start slow.. Coach...."Hate to tell you this but the season is over."

When is the starts slow period over? 20 games, 30 games, 100 games?

I just chuckle whenever i hear the slow start excuse year after year.  Maybe it has to do with his conditioning.  The Star Tribune's April 27th headline pic of him crossing home plate proves the point.  The guy is overweight and by a significant margin (gut is clearly visible) and he's easily 280 pounds.  I really don't believe the headline that he shed 25 pounds in the offseason, it's just not believable unless he ballooned up to 300 this offseason which is certainly possible given past occurrences. I'm 6'-5" and 230lbs and there's no way he's down in the 250's, not a chance.  David Ortiz had a similar build at 6'-4" and 230 pounds and he was nowhere close to as big as Sano.  Being overweight like that clearly impacts an athletes performance and flexibility.  

Look we know the guy strikes out a TON and is not disciplined at the plate.  This team can't afford to have such a prominent position player with a sub .200 batting average well into May every season, it just can't.   I can settle for SOME of the strikeouts as he's a big strong hitter, but the extended slow starts every season and him showing up out of shape EVERY single year is intolerable.      

I thought with time he would develop into a more disciplined player and hitter.  I think ALL of us hoped with time he would develop more patience and a better eye at the plate, but i see no signs of much of a progression.  I've seen enough.   Personally if it were up to me I'd trade him this season, or wouldn't pick up his option and let him walk.  The Twins have given him MORE than enough time for him to start figuring things out.  What we need is a more DISCIPLINED consistent hitter at 1st base or DH and Sano ain't it.  To be honest what he really needs is a coaching staff and manager that just hounds him constantly about conditioning, diet, plate discipline, etc. and I suspect the Twins aren't such a team. 

Let someone else sign him to a colossal contract after the opt out, but that's just my two cents.  

[Whitey333]

Another prime example of new analytics making a very bad player appear to be good.  You had to dig deep for those numbers to support Sano.  Hitting in bad luck?  Come on.  I know traditional numbers mean nothing to you but it does for a lot of people.  He is hitting .083.  yes that's .083.  he has 1 home run that made into the first row at Fenway.  4 RBI.  Those are real stats.  He's earned those at this point.  Have you actually watched him play?  He's mostly overmatched.  Yes he will probably hit a hot streak and hit a few home runs.  Then he will get as cold as ice.  I'm sure he will be here throughout the year.  But I'd be surprised if he's here next year.  He's awful.  We all know it.  We all realize that he's probably the last guy you want up in key situations.  His all or nothing approach (mostly nothing) hurts the team.  Instead of trying to put the ball in play he just strikes out.  Strike outs produce no offense.  Analytics be damned!!

[rwilfong86]

On 4/24/2022 at 4:49 PM, PatPfund said:

Sometimes you can get lost in advanced metrics and season stats (that don't reflect last year's HORRIBLE performance until the Twins were out of contention, then the stat padding in garbage time). Dude is hitting .063 coming into today; 3/44. Gameday shows 8 of his 9 hitting zones as Cold, and one as neutral. He occupies a bat-heavy position, and veers between good D and awful D (that missed line drive the other day was little league level). He is what he is, and maybe he'll help if his team-mates keep the Twins in it long enough. He'll get plenty of chances

But I simply can't fathom the Twins picking up his option for next year. They need a real (and consistent) bat at first. Comparing him to Kepler here is goofy; Max is another lineup hole that needs filling (and less and less it looks like that will be by Max), but he  still plays fairly elite defense in RF. And hits better than Sano so far. (Extremely low bar.)

Kepler has gotten hot at the right time, he is looking like his 2019 self. Hopefully it continues, 

[Vanimal46]

Sano will once again be on the bench against a LH pitcher. I think patience is wearing thin with him in the organization. 

[RpR]

Just now, Vanimal46 said:

Sano will once again be on the bench against a LH pitcher. I think patience is wearing thin with him in the organization. 

It happened once before but they cannot send him down any more.

[swahl]

Sano will probably end the year with similar-to-last-year numbers. Which is a good thing given how awful the start has been. Players get their turns and the players all understand this. 

[kydoty]

Depending on the procedure, there’s a decent change we’ve seen the last of Sano ever as a Twin, as his 2023 option is certainly not being picked up.

 

[nicksaviking]

Tough break for Sano. He seemed genuinely relieved and excited after that bizarre game winning hit against Detroit. 

With surgery likely and the youth movement in full swing, yeah, I agree, this could be the end of the road for the guy with the Twins.

[CRF]

Yep, the Roc said Sano might need some kind of surgical procedure. They'll figure out what to do in the next few days. No one likes to see a guy get hurt, but this could very well be the end of the line for the strike out show. At least for a while. 

[Original_JB]

25 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Tough break for Sano. He seemed genuinely relieved and excited after that bizarre game winning hit against Detroit. 

With surgery likely and the youth movement in full swing, yeah, I agree, this could be the end of the road for the guy with the Twins.

While you never want to see anyone get hurt, I have a hard time calling this a 'tough break'. Did you see the picture from the Strib? The man makes Prince Fielder look like Michael Phelps. At some point he needs to be held accountable for his weight/preparation to play the game. 

[shortround81]

16 hours ago, kydoty said:

Depending on the procedure, there’s a decent change we’ve seen the last of Sano ever as a Twin, as his 2023 option is certainly not being picked up.

 

I agree especially since the injury was caused by the celebration after that crazy walk-off win and not due to actually playing.

My prediction: He's gone after this season and will go on to "Big Papi" us somewhere else

[Danchat]

Sano is getting surgery on his torn meniscus… did that actually happen during the celebration after his hit? Or was it something that was bugging him for some time, I wonder?

[Puckett34]

4 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Sano is getting surgery on his torn meniscus… did that actually happen during the celebration after his hit? Or was it something that was bugging him for some time, I wonder?

Maybe a little column A, little column B

[kydoty]

Mauer as a 20 year old tore his meniscus in April, returned to the lineup in June, and then was shut down for the season a month later because of swelling in the knee.  Granted, Mauer played catcher and not 1st base, but by most metrics Mauer was also a healthier dude at the time.  
 

Time will tell.  But if you told me today that Sano will not play again this season, I wouldn’t be too surprised.  

[laloesch]

On 5/3/2022 at 10:06 AM, shortround81 said:

I agree especially since the injury was caused by the celebration after that crazy walk-off win and not due to actually playing.

My prediction: He's gone after this season and will go on to "Big Papi" us somewhere else

I don't think he will Big Pappi anyone.  he's not a disciplined hitter at all.  In contrast Ortiz was a disciplined hitter it just took him time to develop the homerun power and the Twins at that time were being "cheap" as always and didn't want to offer him a contract extension.  He was also in better physical condition than Sano.  Sano's main problem right now is that he's 50 lbs. overweight and that is not an exaggeration.  He may have lost 25 pounds this offseason, but he obviously ballooned up towards the end of last season, because if we believe the headlines he'd be down to around 245/250 which he's not even remotely close to.   

[laloesch]

On 5/3/2022 at 4:55 PM, Danchat said:

Sano is getting surgery on his torn meniscus… did that actually happen during the celebration after his hit? Or was it something that was bugging him for some time, I wonder?

From what i've read it happened during the celebration or after.  jerky movements when carrying around 50 lbs of extra body fat leads to such injuries.  He's out of shape and he's not disciplined as both a player and a hitter.  I've seen enough.  i don't think he will be a Twin after this season and I don't blame the front office if they choose to walk away from picking up his option as he's had MORE than enough time to get his act together.

[laloesch]

On 4/28/2022 at 12:57 PM, swahl said:

Sano will probably end the year with similar-to-last-year numbers. 

I very much doubt it even if he does return this season.

[laloesch]

On 4/28/2022 at 11:28 AM, Whitey333 said:

Another prime example of new analytics making a very bad player appear to be good.  You had to dig deep for those numbers to support Sano.  Hitting in bad luck?  Come on.  I know traditional numbers mean nothing to you but it does for a lot of people.  He is hitting .083.  yes that's .083.  he has 1 home run that made into the first row at Fenway.  4 RBI.  Those are real stats.  He's earned those at this point.  Have you actually watched him play?  He's mostly overmatched.  Yes he will probably hit a hot streak and hit a few home runs.  Then he will get as cold as ice.  I'm sure he will be here throughout the year.  But I'd be surprised if he's here next year.  He's awful.  We all know it.  We all realize that he's probably the last guy you want up in key situations.  His all or nothing approach (mostly nothing) hurts the team.  Instead of trying to put the ball in play he just strikes out.  Strike outs produce no offense.  Analytics be damned!!

Couldn't agree more.  As I and many have harped on for a long time, he's an all or nothing player, but the "nothing" far outweighs the "all" as he just swings like a mad man in almost every at-bat.  sometimes he connects and hits moonshots but most of the time he strikes out.  It's like his only objective is to hit homeruns not get hits or even walks at the appropriate time.  In my opinion he's not a disciplined player nor a smart one at that.  Time to move on, i've seen enough.  I won't comment any further on this as it will like draw the ire of some, but I'm being a realist.  He's no Ortiz and likely never will be.  David Ortiz was a disciplined hitter with power and a smart one too.