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Sanos cold cold start


Brian J

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19 hours ago, Brian J said:

When are they going to pull the plug on Sano? Pathetic. 

I have been a long time Sano proponent especially his 2015-2019 production outside of an injury shortened low BABIP season. I agree that Sano has been a frustrating player from a fan perspective. During his “prime” years his production never consistently materialized across a full season as he was constantly in a yo-yo scenario of a terrible 1st month back from injury as a quasi-sprint training, a dominant multiple stretch of months, and then an injury and repeat. Lastly, many really don’t like Sano’s playstyle. 
 

I do think that Sano gets miscategorized or did during those first years especially. Because of his K rate, I think Sano was thought by many to have a poor plate approach and a mostly zero impact player outside of some HRs. 
 

However, I think the opposite is true. Sano had an elite plate approach where he was able to virtually maximize the value you can produce through an approach focused on maximizing two different outcomes OBP & XBH. Sano has been consistently among the league leaders in pitches seen per plate appearance in the 4.3-4.4 range. Other than maybe Joe Mauer, there is no other Twins hitter that extends ABs as well as Sano has done. In addition, he’s actually seeing the most amount of pitches in his career this year at 4.7. 
 

Despite what Twins social media says, Sano is not a player who walks up to the plate and just swings at 3 pitches and then walks back. This also suggests that Sano’s ABs have a little bit more value than suggested helping get deeper into pitch counts and other hitters see pitches. This is a purposeful approach for Sano. Basically, Sano’s goal is to have a plan for areas in the zone where he can drive the ball and wait until a pitcher throws a ball in an area he can drive even if it means watching strikes or walking if a pitcher refuses to challenge him in the zone.

Sano actually has one of the most patient and deliverate approaches in the league that helps him optimize his ability to make hard contact. Sano’s strikeout numbers are a by product of this approach and the way that this approach allows Sano to generate a ton of XBH. Sano needs to be willing to let counts go to two strikes if he doesn’t get pitches he feels that he can drive and continue to look for balls to drive with 2 strikes.  
 

Sano famously has big time issues with breaking balls off the plate. However, despite that issue he doesn’t really have an issue chasing balls out of the strike zone. Sano in many counts has the advantage of the pitcher but Sano has to try to defend the plate if it looks like a strike with 2 strikes and he sees more two strikes accounts than virtually anyone else. 
 

This approach also generates a ton of walks. Since 2015 when Sano came into the league in a general sense Sano’s OBP of around .350 meant that despite his contact issues he was on base more than anyone outside of roughly Mauer, Polanco, Cruz, Donaldson, and Arraez. Again, Sano gets a lot of grief for the strikeouts but at the same time he’s really trading weak contact for a higher XBH% and a higher strikeout percentage. 
 

Sano‘s approach focusing on driving the ball and taking big swings as well as his willingness to let the count go to 2 strikes over swing at a pitch that would be hard to drive has meant that Sano has been associated with contact issues. That being said, during that range of time Sano either led the league or was close to leading the league in hard hit percentage, line drive rate. Barrel percentage, and exit velocity. 
 

Basically, when Sano does make contact with the ball there is arguably no one in the MLB who is better at more consistently barreling the ball at that level of exit velocity. Sano was actually a pretty productive hitter when healthy: 

~.350 OBP 

- 40+ HR per 150

-35 2B + 3B per 150

- 100-105 RBIs per 150 

If you just don’t care because you hate the three true outcome style that’s fair but Sano has a history of being a player who gets on base a lot and generates a ton of power leading to a lot of runs driven in. It is too bad that Sano hasn’t been able to be that level of hitter as he’s moved from DH to 1B passably. 

Sano has had a prolonged stretch since 2019 where he hasn’t been able to reach that level. In a world where balls travel less far and batting averages have gone down, Sano’s has as welll. Sano was still a 10% above average hitter last season despite decreases in his average to the .210-.215 range and corresponding OBP drop to .310-.315. 
 

Sano still hits a lot of balls hard with a high exit velocity but like many others not as much as he did during the juiced ball ERA. However, Sano was still pretty decent last season per 150g. 

.312 OBP - .780 OPS - wRC+ - 110

~35 HR - ~28 2B 

~85 RBI - ~80 runs 
 

Sano has started the season characteristically slow but he’s still hitting balls extremely hard and has even made incremental improvements to his BB & K percentages. I don’t expect Sano to ever reach his potential and he likely will not reach the level he produced at during the juiced ball era. That being said, if the Twins can figure out how to have a top 10 offense Sano could be a nice #6 hitter or so who can have a .320-.325 OBP - .800 OPS - 35 HR - 35 2B - 95 rbi type season 

There are a lot of power hitters like Sano who have been able to make strides as hitters in their 30s . I’m not saying that we should rely on Sano making some incremental slides. However, he’s a better hitter than Kepler is at this point. In addition, both Larnach and Kirilloff have struggled and haven’t yet been able to produce even close to the average MLB level. Sano’s approach and skillset makes him a little bit of a niche hitter. But he sees a lot of pitches, gets on base more than most even with a lower average, and can still be an above average power hitter and run driver. 
 

I think that near-term Twins lineups could use his power bat as a good complementary piece. In a near-term lineup that could be featuring more and more players like Arraez and Austin Martin it will be important to have players to drive them in. The Twins don’t have to be tied to Sano but there isn’t any 1B/DH players near the majors or in the majors who have done anything to show me they are even close to Sano level. 

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Sometimes you can get lost in advanced metrics and season stats (that don't reflect last year's HORRIBLE performance until the Twins were out of contention, then the stat padding in garbage time). Dude is hitting .063 coming into today; 3/44. Gameday shows 8 of his 9 hitting zones as Cold, and one as neutral. He occupies a bat-heavy position, and veers between good D and awful D (that missed line drive the other day was little league level). He is what he is, and maybe he'll help if his team-mates keep the Twins in it long enough. He'll get plenty of chances

But I simply can't fathom the Twins picking up his option for next year. They need a real (and consistent) bat at first. Comparing him to Kepler here is goofy; Max is another lineup hole that needs filling (and less and less it looks like that will be by Max), but he  still plays fairly elite defense in RF. And hits better than Sano so far. (Extremely low bar.)

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2 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Yep....I'm done.   3-0 green light in the 10th and he still can't make even solid contact.  What could you get for him?

I don’t mind him swinging at that pitch. Sano has stretches every year where he has unlucky BABIP stretches and/or his timing is slightly off and (generally) he’s skying pitches in the air instead of driving them. Sano is going to have to swing his way out of it and it’s not like he hasn’t been mashing balls, he has the highest average exit velocity this season on the Twins behind Buxton. 

Even today, the last 2 ABs prior Sano had 2 103 &105 mph exit velocity hits turn into outs despite an expected outcome as an example of a .850 average on that. Sano isn’t having unproductive ABs where is just overwhelmed. He is seeing the most pitches per AB in the league and has close to career highs BB% and low K%

Sano could repeat the exact same batted ball profile over the next two weeks and be an .800 OPS player. I’m not sure why people still get so frustrated with Sano. 


 


 

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5 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Sometimes you can get lost in advanced metrics and season stats (that don't reflect last year's HORRIBLE performance until the Twins were out of contention, then the stat padding in garbage time). Dude is hitting .063 coming into today; 3/44. Gameday shows 8 of his 9 hitting zones as Cold, and one as neutral. He occupies a bat-heavy position, and veers between good D and awful D (that missed line drive the other day was little league level). He is what he is, and maybe he'll help if his team-mates keep the Twins in it long enough. He'll get plenty of chances

But I simply can't fathom the Twins picking up his option for next year. They need a real (and consistent) bat at first. Comparing him to Kepler here is goofy; Max is another lineup hole that needs filling (and less and less it looks like that will be by Max), but he  still plays fairly elite defense in RF. And hits better than Sano so far. (Extremely low bar.)


This is just completely disengenuous. Sano starts slow every year and has plenty of track record to not be written off as only a garbage time producer. This has nothing to do with advanced stats. The stats used were described to show how you measure that type of playstyle. Would you use the same stats to measure Arraez versus Buxton? Is Arraez bad because he doesn’t hit home runs? 
 

Again, I’m probably not even on keep Sano long term but this entire thread is basically ignorance about what is important when analyzing success for a player with an outlier hitting profile. And that’s different than talking about the metrics that matter for Sano and then saying that may be true but I dislike his style of play. 
 

Judging Sano based on his K% and batting average or balls play is the Arraez playstyle equivalent of calling him bad and an embarrassment because he doesn’t hit any HRs. To me, there are much more productize conversations to be had about Sano and the higher level style of play conversation by discussing Sano’s performance by analyzing how well he is foundationally doing the things that maximize the outcomes he’s trying to produce. 

Sano plate appearances should be judged based on how many pitches he is seeing, how many BBs he is drawing to offset the  weak contact in play, how often Sano is swinging at pitches in zones with high expected outcomes and  how often he is avoiding swinging at pitches that will result in soft contact if he makes contact as well as what percentage of the time is he hitting the ball hard and barreling the ball. 
 

Sano needs to do these things well to offset having fewer balls in play and a lower average. Measuring what matters, Sano is actually having some of the best ABs during a stretch of his entire career despite his production not reflecting that. Sano has a 13.5-14% BB which is among the best in the league. This isn’t surprising because he’s seeing the most pitches per AB in the league at 6.8. And when Sano is swinging he’s still hitting the ball extremely hard with the highest exit velocity behind Buxton with poor BABIP. As a bonus his K% is down to about 30% but really it’s for the most part an irellevant stat. 

Sano has not shown frustration and continue to be extremely patient and avoiding chasing averaging almost 7 pitches and walking at a rate that would be one the best handful in the league. His hard hit percentage suggests he’s swinging at the right pitches but is just a little by off. 
 

Sano may be actually poised for a bounce back year if he can maintain this profile. He is a slow starter in general but is actually probably much closer to going on a multi week year than it seems. This isn’t something broken. Sano is getting bad luck and in general getting under everything with a 72% FB rate and just a 14% GB rate. With slight timing corrections he’ll take off quickly here. 

 

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17 hours ago, OptimisticTwinsFan said:

I have been a long time Sano proponent especially his 2015-2019 production outside of an injury shortened low BABIP season. I agree that Sano has been a frustrating player from a fan perspective. During his “prime” years his production never consistently materialized across a full season as he was constantly in a yo-yo scenario of a terrible 1st month back from injury as a quasi-sprint training, a dominant multiple stretch of months, and then an injury and repeat. Lastly, many really don’t like Sano’s playstyle. 
 

I do think that Sano gets miscategorized or did during those first years especially. Because of his K rate, I think Sano was thought by many to have a poor plate approach and a mostly zero impact player outside of some HRs. 
 

However, I think the opposite is true. Sano had an elite plate approach where he was able to virtually maximize the value you can produce through an approach focused on maximizing two different outcomes OBP & XBH. Sano has been consistently among the league leaders in pitches seen per plate appearance in the 4.3-4.4 range. Other than maybe Joe Mauer, there is no other Twins hitter that extends ABs as well as Sano has done. In addition, he’s actually seeing the most amount of pitches in his career this year at 4.7. 
 

Despite what Twins social media says, Sano is not a player who walks up to the plate and just swings at 3 pitches and then walks back. This also suggests that Sano’s ABs have a little bit more value than suggested helping get deeper into pitch counts and other hitters see pitches. This is a purposeful approach for Sano. Basically, Sano’s goal is to have a plan for areas in the zone where he can drive the ball and wait until a pitcher throws a ball in an area he can drive even if it means watching strikes or walking if a pitcher refuses to challenge him in the zone.

Sano actually has one of the most patient and deliverate approaches in the league that helps him optimize his ability to make hard contact. Sano’s strikeout numbers are a by product of this approach and the way that this approach allows Sano to generate a ton of XBH. Sano needs to be willing to let counts go to two strikes if he doesn’t get pitches he feels that he can drive and continue to look for balls to drive with 2 strikes.  
 

Sano famously has big time issues with breaking balls off the plate. However, despite that issue he doesn’t really have an issue chasing balls out of the strike zone. Sano in many counts has the advantage of the pitcher but Sano has to try to defend the plate if it looks like a strike with 2 strikes and he sees more two strikes accounts than virtually anyone else. 
 

This approach also generates a ton of walks. Since 2015 when Sano came into the league in a general sense Sano’s OBP of around .350 meant that despite his contact issues he was on base more than anyone outside of roughly Mauer, Polanco, Cruz, Donaldson, and Arraez. Again, Sano gets a lot of grief for the strikeouts but at the same time he’s really trading weak contact for a higher XBH% and a higher strikeout percentage. 
 

Sano‘s approach focusing on driving the ball and taking big swings as well as his willingness to let the count go to 2 strikes over swing at a pitch that would be hard to drive has meant that Sano has been associated with contact issues. That being said, during that range of time Sano either led the league or was close to leading the league in hard hit percentage, line drive rate. Barrel percentage, and exit velocity. 
 

Basically, when Sano does make contact with the ball there is arguably no one in the MLB who is better at more consistently barreling the ball at that level of exit velocity. Sano was actually a pretty productive hitter when healthy: 

~.350 OBP 

- 40+ HR per 150

-35 2B + 3B per 150

- 100-105 RBIs per 150 

If you just don’t care because you hate the three true outcome style that’s fair but Sano has a history of being a player who gets on base a lot and generates a ton of power leading to a lot of runs driven in. It is too bad that Sano hasn’t been able to be that level of hitter as he’s moved from DH to 1B passably. 

Sano has had a prolonged stretch since 2019 where he hasn’t been able to reach that level. In a world where balls travel less far and batting averages have gone down, Sano’s has as welll. Sano was still a 10% above average hitter last season despite decreases in his average to the .210-.215 range and corresponding OBP drop to .310-.315. 
 

Sano still hits a lot of balls hard with a high exit velocity but like many others not as much as he did during the juiced ball ERA. However, Sano was still pretty decent last season per 150g. 

.312 OBP - .780 OPS - wRC+ - 110

~35 HR - ~28 2B 

~85 RBI - ~80 runs 
 

Sano has started the season characteristically slow but he’s still hitting balls extremely hard and has even made incremental improvements to his BB & K percentages. I don’t expect Sano to ever reach his potential and he likely will not reach the level he produced at during the juiced ball era. That being said, if the Twins can figure out how to have a top 10 offense Sano could be a nice #6 hitter or so who can have a .320-.325 OBP - .800 OPS - 35 HR - 35 2B - 95 rbi type season 

There are a lot of power hitters like Sano who have been able to make strides as hitters in their 30s . I’m not saying that we should rely on Sano making some incremental slides. However, he’s a better hitter than Kepler is at this point. In addition, both Larnach and Kirilloff have struggled and haven’t yet been able to produce even close to the average MLB level. Sano’s approach and skillset makes him a little bit of a niche hitter. But he sees a lot of pitches, gets on base more than most even with a lower average, and can still be an above average power hitter and run driver. 
 

I think that near-term Twins lineups could use his power bat as a good complementary piece. In a near-term lineup that could be featuring more and more players like Arraez and Austin Martin it will be important to have players to drive them in. The Twins don’t have to be tied to Sano but there isn’t any 1B/DH players near the majors or in the majors who have done anything to show me they are even close to Sano level. 

Sano is a leader in pitches seen per plate appearance solely because he swings and misses so many times and takes strikes without swinging so many times.  These are not positive things. Yes, Sano can hit a baseball hard, but there are additional necessary criteria to making a competent player. Sano is like a pitcher who can throw a baseball 102 mph, which causes fans to say "Ooooh and ahhh" ...but can't get the ball over the plate.  The Twins have better players who should be playing instead of Sano.  

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Just my two cents. You can throw all the deep dive stats you want up there about him, about how he's this close to breaking out, or if he just did this or that, he would be great, but it hasn't materialized. He's been exactly the same player since he came up in 2015. I don't think there's any reason to expect that he'll miraculously change and become more productive and less of a major hole in the line up. He's always struck out anywhere from 30% up to around 45% of his total AB's. That's abysmal. He kills way more rallies than he helps, He doesn't walk very much. He can't do the little things that would make him more valuable. Move runners, sac flies, drive in runs with base hits, etc. He's also a liability in the field. Will he hit 30-35 homers? Yep, he will. Probably get somewhere around 70-80 ribbys too. His avg will be in the low .200's. He won't change at this point. If that's ok for you, then fine. It's not for me. I'm ready to move on from him, and I sure hope they do. 

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1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Sano is a leader in pitches seen per plate appearance solely because he swings and misses so many times and takes strikes without swinging so many times.  These are not positive things. Yes, Sano can hit a baseball hard, but there are additional necessary criteria to making a competent player. Sano is like a pitcher who can throw a baseball 102 mph, which causes fans to say "Ooooh and ahhh" ...but can't get the ball over the plate.  The Twins have better players who should be playing instead of Sano.  

He only gets 3 strikes, just like everyone else.

Process and results are different things. Fans care about results, but over the course of a marathon season, process matters the most. Process drives results over larger sample sizes. Yes Sano has struggled to get the results we all need, but the metrics point to process being right (for his style of play).

Buxton is K’ing 31.7% and BB’ing 4.9% and no one is whining. Sano is K’ing 29.3% and BB’ing 13.8% and he’s a pariah.

there is more to baseball than batting average.

 

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18 hours ago, Thegrin said:

Sano always has slow starts.

He didn't used to.  His April 2017 was downright awesome.  He didn't have an April in 2019 but his May started out with a .963 OPS.  Starting in 2020 (which also lacked an April for everyone), the pattern emerged of a bad start.  It's worrisome.

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Sanó is currently batting 0.83 on the year with only 1 home run with 3 rbis and 4 hits in 48 at bats. Not gonna lie I had pretty high hopes for sanó this year he had 30 home runs last season which is pretty good but it’s still early. What do you guys think will sanó stay cold and strikeout almost every at bat or may will be something special for him. 

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On 4/23/2022 at 6:52 PM, Brian J said:

When are they going to pull the plug on Sano? Pathetic. 

Don't know but I'm willing to bet that such a move will be fairly quickly followed by the team falling out of contention.  The good news is that we DO have a guy with  an .059 BA guy waiting in the wings.  Of course he's only played five games since July 19.

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57 minutes ago, Chasase said:

Sanó is currently batting 0.83 on the year with only 1 home run with 3 rbis and 4 hits in 48 at bats. Not gonna lie I had pretty high hopes for sanó this year he had 30 home runs last season which is pretty good but it’s still early. What do you guys think will sanó stay cold and strikeout almost every at bat or may will be something special for him. 

Your profile picture is Andrelton Simmons and you had high hopes for Sano this year!!!  Uff Da.  That's a lot to take in on a Monday afternoon.  I don't think I've had enough coffee yet.

Sano will get hot.  It's just a matter of when.  Then he'll get cold again.  And we will all wonder how it happened after hitting so well for month and half.

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Another Sano thread? Also showed 2 errors in either last game or 2 games ago. His leash must be 83' long. Lucky for him the Twins have clawed back to the .500 level as a result of winning 4 in a row thanks to BB and some very fortunate outcomes including the final against the Royals to avoid a sweep. Can't the coaches do something with Sano or do they just pray when he walks into the batters' box? To me (a well known hitting instructor) his stance looks very awkward.

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1 minute ago, baul0010 said:

Your profile picture is Andrelton Simmons and you had high hopes for Sano this year!!!  Uff Da.  That's a lot to take in on a Monday afternoon.  I don't think I've had enough coffee yet.

Sano will get hot.  It's just a matter of when.  Then he'll get cold again.  And we will all wonder how it happened after hitting so well for month and half.

He has gotten hot. Game winning sac fly against the Royals in a 1-0 win and one over the Green Monster in Boston. We have seen his hotness. Unfortunately his getting hot depends upon the blind squirrel/acorn rule.  Result.....083.

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4 hours ago, Sconnie said:

He only gets 3 strikes, just like everyone else.

Process and results are different things. Fans care about results, but over the course of a marathon season, process matters the most. Process drives results over larger sample sizes. Yes Sano has struggled to get the results we all need, but the metrics point to process being right (for his style of play).

Buxton is K’ing 31.7% and BB’ing 4.9% and no one is whining. Sano is K’ing 29.3% and BB’ing 13.8% and he’s a pariah.

there is more to baseball than batting average.

 

I think this is the problem. Last year he was essentially a tick above replacement level overall, and that followed a shortened season where he was replacement level at best.  He's been abysmal to start this season. 

He's always been able to draw walks, but the "slumps," have become more prolonged. His high K rate + poor defense grab headlines and only serve to magnify how inept he is right now. Nobody is whining about Buxton because his OPS is north 1.300 and he's an elite defender. Sano has one XBH in almost 60 PAs this season. His process has to yield better results than average power production to justify his continued presence in the lineup. His last 700+ PAs don't suggest he's driving towards that.  

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4 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I think this is the problem. Last year he was essentially a tick above replacement level overall, and that followed a shortened season where he was replacement level at best.  He's been abysmal to start this season. 

He's always been able to draw walks, but the "slumps," have become more prolonged. His high K rate + poor defense grab headlines and only serve to magnify how inept he is right now. Nobody is whining about Buxton because his OPS is north 1.300 and he's an elite defender. Sano has one XBH in almost 60 PAs this season. His process has to yield better results than average power production to justify his continued presence in the lineup. His last 700+ PAs don't suggest he's driving towards that.  

Sano’s fielding is bad, and I hope when Kiriloff comes back he takes over at first, moving Sano to DH.

agree that process does need to yield results, he’s been bumped to the bottom of the lineup. I’d still look to give him more ABs before benching him, especially considering how thin they are right now.

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37 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

Sano’s fielding is bad, and I hope when Kiriloff comes back he takes over at first, moving Sano to DH.

agree that process does need to yield results, he’s been bumped to the bottom of the lineup. I’d still look to give him more ABs before benching him, especially considering how thin they are right now.

Sano' current fielding numbers are not bad; if you are going to use that standard, then Jeffers is the one hurting compared to Sanchez.

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We're all frustrated with Sano and we'll all be cheering him IF and when he goes on one of his patented hot streaks. I think the frustration is that those hot streaks seem to be further and further apart. He also provides no value to the team if he doesn't hit. I'm not a big fan of Kepler either, but at least he does provide value with his glove in right field. For Sano to help the team, he has to be hitting well. 

To me, the big problem with Sano is that 1B is a position where you should always have a strong offensive player or at least a good glove that hits for average. Sano is neither one of those things. We have a team with a lineup problem right now. The lineup isn't good enough to score consistently enough for the team to consistently win. The obvious places for an upgrade in this lineup are 1B, DH and LF. Arraez can only play one of those three at a time. This team needs ae consistent hitter at the 1B position. Unfortunately, Sano hasn't been that guy for the last few years and is unlikely to be that guy in the future based on his past performance. The only thing saving him now is the lack of an obvious replacement. He goes to the bench if that replacement arrives, say Kirilloff maybe, and is probably gone from the team next season since it is very unlikely that we will pick up his option at $14 million for next season.

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2 hours ago, Sconnie said:

Sano’s fielding is bad, and I hope when Kiriloff comes back he takes over at first, moving Sano to DH.

agree that process does need to yield results, he’s been bumped to the bottom of the lineup. I’d still look to give him more ABs before benching him, especially considering how thin they are right now.

For sure, I'm not advocating that they dump him this moment. Kirilloff's health pending, Sano is probably still their "best," option at 1B if we're not counting Arraez as eligible/viable. 

I probably like Sano locked in as a full time DH with a 780ish OPS less than him flexing between 1B and DH, especially if the Twins are trying to get Miranda and/or Marin ABs on top of rotating Arraez and Urshela. Of course that's all subject to injury and performance.

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