Livin' La Vida Larnach?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins offense has been a massive disappointment as a whole. Looking across the lineup, it’s hard to find much to be impressed with. This is also the case for Trevor Larnach, but taking a deeper dive tells a much different story.

The tale of Trevor Larnach’s debut is not uncommon among big-time hitting prospects. He came up and punished major-league fastballs until he was fed a steady diet of breaking pitches. At that point not even his hot start could keep Larnach from taking a trip back to St. Paul where his season eventually ended with an injury.

In his short stint in AAA to end 2021, Larnach didn’t have much time to get his footing back and work to adjust back to MLB pitching which had pinpointed his Achilles Heel. The left-handed slugger swung and missed at 54% of the breaking balls he saw. Unsurprisingly, he hit just .167 and slugged .218 against such pitches. It was fitting that he was slated to spend a chunk of time in St. Paul to begin the year before Alex Kirilloff landed on the IL. In short, Larnach is once again receiving the “trial by fire” treatment.

At first glance, Larnach appears to be failing miserably, as his slash line of .190/.192/.174 appears to fit right in with a Twins 1-9 that ranks as one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. Unlike his lineup mates, however, Larnach is doing everything right to start his second MLB season.

Has it felt like Larnach regularly punishes baseballs that just so happen to wind up in a defender's glove? It should, because that’s exactly what’s happening. Statcast data suggests Larnach has been the unluckiest hitter in the Twins lineup. So far he’s increased his barrel rate from 9.5% to 10.5% from last year. His .240 expected batting average is more than acceptable when paired with a .473 expected slugging percentage. Mix in his tremendous eye at the plate and a decrease in his swing and miss rate from 34.6% to 19.2% and the Twins have what looks like a middle-of-the-order bat who’s gotten unlucky across a couple of weeks.

So how do we know Larnach isn’t off to just another hot streak that’s destined to crash back down like last year?

The early returns on Larnach’s ability to hit breaking balls are unbelievable. Pitchers have continued feeding him spinners as his scouting report likely calls for. According to just about every measurement, Larnach’s ability to not only make contact but to barrel such pitches has made a dramatic improvement.

The Twins admittedly don’t have a lot to get excited about in their lineup at the moment as most hitters are either making poor contact or no contact at all. Trevor Larnach is different. After showing a crippling weakness in his MLB debut, the former first-round pick appears to have made a measurable change in approach that simply hasn’t quite paid off yet in this young season.

Despite his poor surface numbers, I’d argue Larnach is showing more at the plate than most of the lineup thus far. The Twins are struggling to score any runs at all and even just one player really clicking would really make a world of difference. So far the numbers say Trevor Larnach could be such a player. Do you agree?

 

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[mikelink45]

When I looked at yesterday's game he was one of the few hitters to do well. I think he's about to bring that batting average up to where he will be more than acceptable

[RpR]

50 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

When I looked at yesterday's game he was one of the few hitters to do well. I think he's about to bring that batting average up to where he will be more than acceptable

Hmm, he had two hits; the sky opened and the Angels sang.?

That he was removed from the gam made little sense, the end of the month will say more,

[RJA]

5 minutes ago, RpR said:

Hmm, he had two hits; the sky opened and the Angels sang.?

The end of the month will say more.

Now, now, let's not be a cynic.  Obviously, it will take some time to see if he has really figured things out.  That is to be expected.  But his at bats, especially when confronted with off speed stuff, are much better than last year by a substantial margin.  I think that is the point mikelink45 is making.

[h2oface]

I love how baseball has transformed. When a player is sucking, there are now advanced stats to say that he is so much better than his performance and actual outcomes say they are. Now you can hit .220, and with the "advanced stats", be considered above above average at the plate. Who would have thunk it?

[tony&rodney]

I like Trevor Larnach and think he has a future at the plate. I'm just guessing that athleticism and defense will return with the deader ball and this puts a premium on strong outfield defense. In turn, the demand for strong defenders puts Larnach as a DH. If Martin can maintain a .400 OBP in the bigs and run around LF with authority, there is less room for those who are defensively challenged in an era of hitters who send the ball into the outfield.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, h2oface said:

I love how baseball has transformed.

It seems to me maybe you actually don't. 

[Sielk]

6 hours ago, h2oface said:

I love how baseball has transformed. When a player is sucking, there are now advanced stats to say that he is so much better than his performance and actual outcomes say they are. Now you can hit .220, and with the "advanced stats", be considered above above average at the plate. Who would have thunk it?

And that's not the conclusion you should draw from the advanced stats. Larnach has a .630 OPS. That's not good. And if he were to continue like this the entire season, it wouldn't be a good season either. 

All the advanced stats are saying is that there are a lot of reasons to believe he won't continue to have a .630 OPS for the rest of the year. Or, translated into perfectly old school, non-analytics terms: He has really hit the ball well and just has had rotten luck. If he continues doing that, the luck will likely turn around. Simple as that.

Now, you are of course free to ignore what the advanced stats are saying. In this case, let's just hope you'll be pleasantly surprised if he does start getting actual good results. ?

[h2oface]

5 hours ago, Sielk said:

And that's not the conclusion you should draw from the advanced stats. Larnach has a .630 OPS. That's not good. And if he were to continue like this the entire season, it wouldn't be a good season either. 

All the advanced stats are saying is that there are a lot of reasons to believe he won't continue to have a .630 OPS for the rest of the year. Or, translated into perfectly old school, non-analytics terms: He has really hit the ball well and just has had rotten luck. If he continues doing that, the luck will likely turn around. Simple as that.

Now, you are of course free to ignore what the advanced stats are saying. In this case, let's just hope you'll be pleasantly surprised if he does start getting actual good results. ?

et al........ thanks.... I get it. Good summary. I understand that is the conclusion the presenters want me to draw. They are right sometimes, and many times not. I tend to go with actual performance. I don't think it is just luck to be able to be a situational hitter. Some luck, sure, as is all at bats. I don't think Larnach "sucks", but I am not going to sugar coat that he is sucking right now. I always welcome players, including those that the same advanced stats are saying they are hopeless, to surprise me. 

[Sielk]

4 hours ago, h2oface said:

et al........ thanks.... I get it. Good summary. I understand that is the conclusion the presenters want me to draw. They are right sometimes, and many times not. I tend to go with actual performance. I don't think it is just luck to be able to be a situational hitter. Some luck, sure, as is all at bats. I don't think Larnach "sucks", but I am not going to sugar coat that he is sucking right now. I always welcome players, including those that the same advanced stats are saying they are hopeless, to surprise me. 

No problem with that. I just think situational hitting is far more difficult than many people think unless you're Luis Arraez or one of those superstar hitters that just do everything very well. But most players, now and in the past, have to specialize on their own approach and perfect it, in my opinion. That can still work well if the approach is sound but it does make luck a bigger factor. (There are of course hitters whose approach is inherently flawed, like Kepler, but that's a different story.)

That said, I like how Larnach has been looking lately even without looking at a single stat. Had a very nice two-out 2-RBI single yesterday and came so close to hitting a homer if the wind hadn't pushed the ball in (talk about bad luck). I hope he can build on that and improve.

[nclahammer]

Stats aside, through the eye test I see growth in Larnach with more of his swings going to left-center and centerfield, I would like to see Max Kepler do that with more frequency too (he had a hit there on Saturday I believe.)   

[Halsey Hall]

Larnach did spend hours more than anyone not named Jake Cave in the batting cages this spring.

[h2oface]

And then today, first inning, bases loaded in the first, 2 outs ....... and he watches the close first strike change up, swings and fouls at the close ball change up for strike two, and then watches a third called strike fastball at 94, perfect hitters pitch, right down the middle, no movement, and strands all 3 runners for the third out. Damn.

Then in the third inning, he comes up with runners on second and third with one out, works the count to 2-2, and then watches another fastball, the seemingly only pitch he can now hit, for a called strike 3. Slow learner. At least it wasn't right down the middle.

[RpR]

6 hours ago, Halsey Hall said:

Larnach did spend hours more than anyone not named Jake Cave in the batting cages this spring.

Send Larnach down and bring Fisher up , see how he does in the Minors.

Fisher is hitting more Home Runs in the Minors now than Cave.

It could act as a jolt of reality, although I doubt Larnach will ever be better than he is now.

[TheLeviathan]

All you can ask players to do is take the right approach, improve the approach if it isn't working, and hope the results reward the process.  No one, not with advanced stats, eye test, or anything else in the history of baseball is going to bad mouth a player who is stinging the ball all over and just having bad luck.  

The advanced stats aren't perfect, they just try to identify players that are doing things right, even if the results haven't shown it yet.  Or, vice versa, guys who have results that look unsustainable.  Reality often vindicates those conclusions over time.

Some of the posts in this thread to the contrary....woof.  If you don't understand it, just ignore it and steer clear of it.  Opening your mouth to admit just how poorly you understand it is a bad look.

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

All you can ask players to do is take the right approach, improve the approach if it isn't working, and hope the results reward the process.  No one, not with advanced stats, eye test, or anything else in the history of baseball is going to bad mouth a player who is stinging the ball all over and just having bad luck.  

The advanced stats aren't perfect, they just try to identify players that are doing things right, even if the results haven't shown it yet.  Or, vice versa, guys who have results that look unsustainable.  Reality often vindicates those conclusions over time.

Some of the posts in this thread to the contrary....woof.  If you don't understand it, just ignore it and steer clear of it.  Opening your mouth to admit just how poorly you understand it is a bad look.

There is not such thing as bad luck, one makes one's own luck.

If one is "stinging" the ball where they are standing , try stinging it where they are not standing.

[TheLeviathan]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

There is not such thing as bad luck, one makes one's own luck.

If one is "stinging" the ball where they are standing , try stinging it where they are not standing.

K.

[Mike Sixel]

57 minutes ago, RpR said:

There is not such thing as bad luck, one makes one's own luck.

If one is "stinging" the ball where they are standing , try stinging it where they are not standing.

Hahahahahahahaha. Just. Wow. On a site with ridiculous takes, this is perhaps the most ridiculous ever. 

[RpR]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Hahahahahahahaha. Just. Wow. On a site with ridiculous takes, this is perhaps the most ridiculous ever. 

Only the obtuse believe in luck.