Reasons for Optimism - How optimistic should we be about the Twins rotation and their young starters?

[OptimisticTwinsFan]

 

Introduction

 

There has been a lot of discussion about the struggles of the Twins offense to start the 2022 season and there definitely is a lot to discuss on that topic. However, I want to turn to the Twins pitching. The two-names that I want to first call out as promising & exciting are the starts of Joe Ryan & Bailey Ober. Ryan & Ober are two players that many Twins fans have been pleasantly surprised with extending to last season. 

Joe Ryan doesn't have a large sample size of minor league track record, but across his stops as he worked his way to the majors (and in the Olympics last season), Ryan consistently showed the ability to strike out a lot of hitters, walk very few hitters, and impressively avoid allowing baserunners. 

 

Joe Ryan - 2019 Minor League Season

 

Ryan had an extremely impressive 2019 season across 3 different levels (A, A+, AA). Ryan had a 1.96 era with an equally impressive 13.3 K's per 9 innings while limiting base runners and contact only allowing 2.0 BB's per 9 innings and 5.5 hits per 9 innings resulting in a WHIP of under 1 (0.84). Raw numbers aside, he showed an ability to continue to have the same peripheral underlying stats at as his competition increased and he ended the season with 3 starts at the AA level. In addition, Ryan avoided his biggest issue that has hurt him since and only allowed 0.5 HRs per 9 innings although he did start to have problems in the small sample at AA that season. 

Overall, this peripheral profile suggests a pitcher that is extremely promising. Pitchers who signal that they have strong control through limiting BBs at a high level and who are also able to miss bats, get strikeouts, and prevent a lot of hard contact will over larger sample sizes almost always pitch really well. 

 

Joe Ryan - 2021 Minor League Season

 

After covid-19 killed a development season for minor league players, the question for Ryan to prove was if his 2019 season was for real. Despite only pitching 13 innings above A+, the Rays were aggressive with Ryan starting him at AAA and he didn't disappoint and continued to show success both for the Rays and after his mid-season trade to the Twins.

Ryan did have an 3.41 ERA at AAA over ~66 innings (13 starts), but his ERA to some extent hides his continued dominance and the same underlying pitching profile that is really exciting. Ryan was basically able to maintain his K per 9 rate (12.6 per 9 innings) & actually slightly lower his BB per 9 rate (1.6 BB's per 9 innings) and also his hits per 9 inning rate (5.5 hits per 9 innings). This meant he actually lowered his WHIP to .79 baserunners per inning during this AAA stretch. Ryan's HR per 9 innings increased from 0.5 per 9 innings to 1.2 per 9 innings after he allowed 9 HRs in 66 innings meaning that almost 23% of the 40 hits he allowed went for HRs.

This does seem high, but it's important to note that Ryan is a pretty extreme fly-ball pitcher usually only generating about 30-35% of his outs on fly balls. This is likely an issue that will be something that does burn him when he does miss. However, there's a lot of reason to suggest that he was getting unlucky at that level given his ability to miss bats & limit contact in general. Ryan roughly maintained an IFFB% of around 28-30% & a line drive percentage of around ~14% from his previous season in 2019. In addition, using major league averages of (~11% & 21% respectively) those numbers suggest that Ryan is much better than the average pitcher at limiting hard contact (line drives) and generating one of the weakest forms of contact (in-field pop-ups) though this isn't a direct comparison. The league average HR per FB percentage in the MLB is around 9% and Ryan's in the minors during 2021 was around 13 or 13.5%. Ryan's profile suggests that he's a pitcher who likes to pitch at the top of the strike zone given his FB%, IFFB%, and HR rate. Given his weak contact profile, I would think that he should have a relatively normal FB to HR percentage even if nominally he gives up more HRs because of the number of fly-balls he allowed.

Ryan also bolstered his status as a prospect as one of the leading pitchers that the Olympic team relied during the 2020 Olympics where he pitched 10.1 innings over 2 different starts allowing just 2 ERs (1.75 ERA) while pitching on a stage of that magnitude.

Ryan's ability to continue to repeat his success across different levels in the minors and over multiple different seasons with consistent underlying numbers even as competition became more difficult cemented Ryan as a legitimate prospect and not just an interesting story or recognizable name because of the Olympics. That being said, Joe Ryan has one of the more unique pitching profiles in the MLB (maybe ever) making him a pitching prospect that either represents a case study on the effectiveness of how well data can identify pitching outliers that through traditional MLB scouting would likely be not thought of as a potential elite pitcher.

 

Joe Ryan - Revolutionizing how we measure & develop SPs?

 

What makes Ryan's pitching profile so unique and one of the first of its kind? At a high-level, Ryan's pitching profile suggests that he's a pretty prototypical modern MLB starting pitcher. His ability to control the top of the strike zone, avoid walks at a borderline, miss bats, and create weak contact at elite to elite level in the minors is the exact style of pitching that works well in an MLB.  This approach has become one that has become popular evangelized by advanced statistics in response to hitting trends also based on advanced statistics where batters are focused more and more on elevating the ball, generating hard contact, and working deep into counts to take walks.

There are other MLB pitchers that have found success through optimizing their game around these principles. The majority of these pitchers were either decent MLB SPs or had either already found success or increased their success through a focus around these areas. In addition, for the most part the MLB still focuses on categorizing pitcher potential based on velocity & how much breaking pitch movement pitchers can generate. As average FB velocity increases and hitters become more focused on generating hard contact with fastballs in the zone, more and more pitchers especially those without elite FB velocity continue to turn to more and more breaking balls and actually for the most part throw as many or more breaking pitches compared to fastballs. There are pitchers who have focused more and more on spin rates, arm slots, sequencing and more--however Ryan in many ways has taken these trends and the emphasis that MLB advanced stats proponents have touted their effectiveness to a new level.

Joe Ryan has quickly risen through the minors as a SP with a reputation as primarily a 1-pitch pitcher who relied on his fastball about 70% of the time. Ryan must be throwing 96-97+ mph with wicked movement of some sort is your immediate reaction. There can be no other explanation for a SP who seemingly has no fear continually pounding fastballs in the upper half of the zone over & over & over again overwhelming hitters who know the pitch is coming generating 13 K's per 9 inning while pounding the strike zone only walking ~1.6-2 BB per 9 innings and dominating weak contact in as large of ways as we have seen at the minor league level (5 hits per 9 innings, 11% LD, 30% IFFB, 0.80 whip). There have been few pitchers that have found more success based around a strategy of challenging hitters in the upper part of the strike zone and saying you know it's coming but you can't hit it.

Ryan was able to dominate at this extreme level consistently throughout the minors despite sitting between 90-94mph (generally 91-92) with solid horizontal movement but below-average vertical & movement along with his average to below average velocity. His fastball velocity is, compared to MLB pitchers, in the bottom 15-20%. 

 

How Joe Ryan has developed one of the most elite & overwhelming 4-seam FBs in the league throwing 90-94mph

 

How did Ryan manage to be so successful at the minor league level largely relying on one pitch despite not having elite velocity or movement on the surface with that pitch? This fangraphs article goes into a better explanation than I could https://blogs.fangraphs.com/joe-ryan-has-plenty-of-margin-for-error/ . Essentially, Ryan relies largely on his 4-seam fastball which is a pitch that's designed to be thrown at the top of the zone & combines that pitch with an extremely low 3/4 quarter arm slot that creates one of the most extreme negative vertical approach angles among fastballs through in the MLB (or his 4-seam crosses the plate at a higher location or angle than where his release point is in an extreme way). 

The Fangraphs article goes to cite research that's been done about the effectiveness of low-arm release slots & 4-seam pitches with this kind of extreme difference in VAA are extremely effective at outperforming expectations of the pitch based on location/etc across the zone. This phenomenon creates a ride or a "jump" effect that causes players to struggle to time the pitch & the pitch to visually play much faster than it actually is among other things. Basically, while this pitch is extremely hard to hit when located well especially at the top of the strike zone generating this phenomenon also gives pitchers a large margin of error. As batters struggle to hit pitches at expected OPS where-ever the pitch is located. This unique arm angle & vertical approach angle that Ryan generates when he throws his fastball is largely the reason that he was successful in the minor leagues and the reason that the Twins keyed in on him as a prospect. 

 

Joe Ryan - 2021 Majors - Elite 4-seam fastball if he can improve his command & location

 

The article continues to dive deeper on Ryan and what is actually interesting & exciting when analyzing Ryan's potential. Ryan did not do a great job at elevating his 4-seam fastball as consistently as one would like given his profile & the advantage of that pitch located at the top of the zone. His heat zone suggests that he located a lot of fastballs over the middle & heart of the strike zone. Most likely largely because of the lack of elite command that he showed during his first MLB stint (yet) generated only a slightly above average swinging strike (11%) & called strike + whiff rate (~30%). There is a lot of room for Ryan to continue to work with the Twins pitching staff to improve his command of his 4-seam fastball and more consistently locate pitches at the top of the zone versus missing more towards the middle of the plate to truly unlock that pitch as an elite pitch.

I was not able to find location data for Ryan at the minor league level. That being said, it's easy to start to understand why Ryan dominated the minor leagues assuming that he either did have more consistently improved command and/or minor league players to an even lesser extent couldn't punish his 4-seam fastball even when he didn't. Ryan has work to do from his debut to maximize his 4-seam FB, but this pitch projects to be above-average to elite for Ryan going forward at the major league level. How good are his secondary pitches? As a prospect, there were questions about Ryan's secondary pitches and how those pitches would profile at the MLB level. The article goes on to dig into Ryan's secondary pitch profile based on his MLB starts in 2021. 

The Twins have seen pitchers like Maeda/Odorizzi have a lot of success when they have had seasons where they are able to really consistently command the 4-seam fastball at the top of the zone. Ryan could be the next pitcher to have that type of season or better. Ryan profiles as a pitcher who could potentially be a 6-7 inning starter versus a 5-6 inning starter given his history of attacking the strike zone compared to Maeda/Odorizzi. 

 

Joe Ryan Breaking Pitches

 

Ryan was able to generate breaking pitches (curveball & slider) got double digit swinging strike percentages of just over 16% & 18% respectively. Using 2020 data, the SP with the highest curveball swinging strike percentage was Bieber just over 18% and Ryan would have ranked 3rd. For further context, 30th among SPs was around 11.5%. Sliders generally get more swinging strikes than curveballs (I am unable to find league-wide data), but his swinging strike percentage at 18% on sliders would probably also rank Ryan in the top 5-10 range or better among SPs over a full-season. How did Ryan generate that many swing & misses on both of his breaking balls when he was labeled throughout the minors and as he made his debut at the MLB level as largely a one-pitch pitcher who needed to figure out how to develop at least one above average breaking pitch?

Well, I think it's worth adding a couple of notes. First, this represents only a 26 inning sample at the major league level without a lot of MLB tape on his pitches. Second, Ryan was still a very-heavy 4-seam fastball pitcher throwing 65% of his pitches as a 4-seam compared to about 10.5% curveballs & 16% sliders (while adding a change-up 8% of the time that was a negative pitch just to show it). Ryan is primarily a fastball pitcher & has relied on that pitch as the foundation of how he works hitters & sequences pitches off of that pitch. If Ryan throws 100 pitches over 6 innings facing 24 batters (18 outs, 4 hits, 2 walks) each batter will see about 4 pitches on average per AB. This means that Ryan throws about 36 pitches per 9 batters which includes about 4 curves, 6 curveballs, 2-3 changeups, and 22-23 4-seam FBs. 

The reason that I make this argument is to simply say that Ryan throws these pitches to generate swings & misses based on the expectation that he has established that a fastball is coming; where many other pitchers (especially in the modern MLB) will key batters off of a breaking pitch in at least a secondary way if not as often as a fastball (the MLB increasingly has a lower and lower FB% as a whole). These pitchers will not generate as many swings or misses despite potentially having better command and/or a truly more effective pitch either in a base sense or they will spin that pitch in an increased way to get swinging strikes.

That being said, I think there has been analysis done into Ryan's breaking pitches that reveal interesting insights on the liklihood that Ryan will be able to leverage his breaking pitches to generate what could be truthfully called elite swinging miss percentages for a SP. Deeper analysis on Ryan's pitch mix post-debut has revealed that not only does his 4-seam fastball have oddities that make it a potential elite pitch despite not appearing elite measuring it in the traditional way using velocity & vertical/horizontal movement. 

 

Joe Ryan's Slider - Analysis found a large observed versus measured differences in spin deviation 

 

Ryan's slider has the 5th spin deviation among sliders thrown in the MLB last season. Basically, Ryan's slider generates a lot more movement than the formula that measures spin calculations suggest that it should because of how he manipulates the seams on the ball with his grip. This means that a formula that measures inputs like velocity, spin rate, etc will compute an output for Ryan's slider that undersells the amount the pitch actually moves which can lead those using that data to think that Ryan's slider is a pretty weak pitch without a lot of movement. However, when accurately measuring Ryan's slider movement incorporating effects to movement not included in the traditional calculation Ryan's pitch gains a lot of horizontal movement and grades much more positively.

This means that Ryan should be able to generate a large amount of sweeping action that moves in on left-handers & away from right-handed-batters. This pitch may not have AS much movement as the most elite of similar pitches, but it can be an effective pitch for Ryan. Traditional measurements haven't accurately captured the movement on Ryan's slider meaning that when factoring in spin deviation his swinging strike percentage makes much more sense.

 

Joe Ryan's Curveball - Spin analysis comparing Ryan's 4-seam fastball & Curveball has revealed spin behavior created by Ryan that prevents batters from accurately identifying between the two pitches

 

Ryan does a really good job of throwing his curveball in such a way that makes it really hard for batters to differentiate between his curve & 4-seam fastball when he locates well. Ryan does this by throwing both pitches with a type of spin that effectively makes the pitches mirror each other until (because the spin is actually mirrored and the pitches are different) Ryan's fastball seems will seem to rise and even run towards right-hand-batters, while his curveball will drop downwards with some action away from right-hand-batters. Ryan's ability to make these pitches look like each other until the last minute when they both break into the zone in extremely different ways and at much different speeds should allow him to be successful with this breaking pitch as well as long as he can continue to improve his command and locate well.

This phenomena is something that Ryan talks a lot about in interviews and is purposeful. "Stuff" calculators may not or will not traditionally factor in how well two-different pitch types mirror eachother. In isolation, one of both of these pitches may seem like it doesn't move in a way that should be difficult for hitters but hitters don't hit in isolation. Ryan has crafted this pitch & the spin/movement he generates when he throws it to work directly off of his 4-seam fastball and cause hitters to identify what to them looks like the same pitch that they have to react could be coming at them with 10mph of velocity difference in and completely opposite areas of the zone.

 

Joe Ryan's Changeup 

 

Ryan does also throw a changeup about 8% of the time. This is a below average pitch for him as it has been about 1-2 runs per 100 pitches below average during both of his MLB seasons. This pitch is thrown at the same 83mph velocity as his slider. I wonder if Ryan tries to use this pitch to establish a pitch to sequence off of his slider and/or maybe his 4-seam against certain batters (generally I think he uses his curveball in this fashion as a changeup off of the fastball that looks the same). I want to do more research into this topic. It could also be a pitch that he is learning or this could be capturing sliders that he throws and he doesn't get enough spin on. It will be interesting to see if Ryan during this season touches on what his goal is for his changeup and if that goal gets more refined if it continues to be a negative pitch for him.

 

Summary - Joe Ryan's Breaking Pitches

 

Ryan's breaking pitches have unique characteristics that are not always easy to identify in the way that pitches are normally graded and observable movement is tracked. Ryan's slider has one of the largest differences among MLB sliders thrown last year between measured versus observed movement. This means that Ryan's slider actually grades out much better than expected based on his profiles coming through the minor leagues. In addition, Ryan's curveball is a better pitch than movement would suggest it is because of how well Ryan sequences the spin of that pitch to mirror off of his 4-seam fastball. In many cases, even more so than a huge amount of break or extreme velocity batters struggle to hit pitchers because they struggle to identify which pitch is coming which prevents them from generating hard-contact & barrels. 

This analysis & insight into Ryan's pitches at this level help make it easier to understand how Ryan was able to generate swinging strike percentages that were well above average last season during his MLB debut, especially when you factor in how Ryan is throwing these pitches as out pitches versus the bulk of his pitches throughout an AB. This analysis reveals that Ryan's secondary pitches have likely been undervalued or not properly understood. One of the reasons that Ryan so interesting as a pitcher is that similar to Ryan's FB his breaking pitches are also pitches that we wouldn't have historically considered as "nasty" or representative of having elite "stuff". Ryan observed through the lens of velocity & pitch movement in a vacuum looks like a pitcher with below average velocity & movement on all 3 of his top pitches. This makes it really confusing to see Ryan's minor league success and how even at the major league level he's able to challenge hitters at the top of the zone and make them look foolish and overwhelmed.

However, Ryan is a huge student of the game and continually working at refining and understanding the characteristics of his pitches & being purposeful about his goal of crafting pitch types & a pitching motion that aligns with optimizing the action that he wants to generate on his pitches & his plan for attacking hitters and preventing them from being able to accurately trust their eyes & instincts when visualizing his pitches. Doing this analysis into Ryan's pitches makes it much easier to understand how he generated strikeout rates in the 12-13% range, limited contact at an elite level (5.5 hits per 9, 11% LD, 28-30% IFFB), and was able to attack hitters and overwhelm them even in the zone to limit walks (1.6-2.2 BB's per 9) throwing a fastball that generally sits at 91-93mpg about 70% of the time and breaking pitches he was able to consistently use as swing and miss pitches.

 

Joe Ryan - How good can Ryan be given his unique profile?

 

Ryan can be really good and establish a new mold as a SP for front-offices to develop and target. Ryan really does have elite "stuff" and even as he breaks into the majors he's much more than a 1-pitch pitcher. Ryan's fastball has a chance to be the best in the MLB. Here's some context:

 

2021 stats (MLB league leaders in FB value per 100 pitches)

 

6 pitchers have a FB value above 1.15 runs per 100 pitches

Sherzer at 1.51

Buehler at 1.40

Woodruff at 1.34

Wheeler at 1.33

Descalfini at 1.29

Wainright at 1.16

 

2019 MLB stats 

 

5 pitchers have a FB value above 1.15 runs per 100 pitches

Cole at 1.72

Flaherty at 1.62

Giolito at 1.54

Singer at 1.16

Degrom at 1.15

 

Ryan, in limited innings at the MLB level (42-43 innings), but also still improving his command of his FB at the MLB level Ryan has a cumulative FB value per 100 pitches of 2.02 (2.05 & 1.90). Ryan is not the only pitcher that throws under 94-95+ avg FB velocity to rank in this range (Singer/Wainright). In addition, there are other non-flame throwers like M. Gonzales, Bieber, and Wainright who have ranked highly in FB value. However, none of those players attack the zone with their fastball or rely on their fastball as their core offering in the way Ryan does. All of those other options have a max FB% of 30-38% and feature their fastball as a pitch to freeze hitters off of a changeup or another breaking ball that they are using to set-up their fastball.

Basically, in a general sense other than in a few occasions the general rule is that you either have a flamethrowing 4-seam FB to pitch up in the zone or your FB acts as an out pitch to freeze hitters expecting breaking pitches. Ryan remains unique in that he has a 91-92mph 4-seem FB that he works up in the zone at traditionally 65-70% usage. In addition, thus far Ryan's FB value per 100 pitches of around 2 runs would represent a massive gap between him and the next best FB over the past 2 full seasons at around 1.50-1.70. Ryan has a lot of room for improvement with his FB as he improves his command, there is a chance his 4-seam FB because of all of the things discussed about truly is a one of its kind pitch in the modern MLB and the highest value FB in the game for SPs. 

 

Note -

Interestingly enough, the Twins have have success working up in the zone over the past few seasons with this pitching staff at Ryan's velocity or slower (Maeda & Odorizzi). Odorizzi had a 1.30 run per 100 pitch FB throwing about 57-59% FBs at 91-92mph primarily up in the zone during 2019. In 2020, Maeda has similar success during the lockout shortened season (2.87 runs per 100 pitches) operating up in the zone, but he only threw ~30% 4-seam FBs. Given that precedent of success set within the same organization, it seems reasonable to suggest that the Twins FO & pitching coaches purposeful target these types of pitchers and think they can work with them to find success pitching in that way. In addition, it's also not surprising that the Twins are also positioning themselves to have arguably the best OF defense in the league with Buxton/Kepler in the OF to help Fly Ball pitchers.

If the Wolves are able to repeat that success in an optimized way with Ryan; it will be interesting to see if other FOs in the MLB try to follow suit. There seems like a potential opportunity to identify pitchers early who could have similar types of movement on their FB creating similar angles across the plate. If this pitch proves to be able to dominate hitters while sitting at 90-94mph while also increasing margin for error across the plate; that seems easier to find than pitchers who can throw 95+, find the zone, and develop as starters.

 

Sliders 

Looking at 2019 & 21 data; there appears to be roughly 15 players per year that have a slider with a value of more than 1 run per 100 pitches. This includes outlier seasons by Sherzer/Verlander in the 3-4 range with other elite SPs like Tanaka/DeGrom and a few others having 2+ run per 100 pitch seasons.

Curveballs

Looking at 2019 & 21 data there appears to be about 10-11 SPs per year with CB value per 100 pitches above 1. This includes outlier seasons above 3 by Grienke and Darvish and about 7 other seasons above 2 by Sonny Gray, Strasburg, Mortan, etc. 

 

Ryan's slider has been ~1 run per 100 pitches in each of his first 2 seasons. His curveball has been 3.25 & 1.80 runs per 100 pitches. This puts him at around the 15th most valuable slider per 100 pitches & somewhere from arguably the best to somewhere in the 5-10 range of best curveballs on a run basis per 100 pitches. I don't expect Ryan to continue to produce at this high of a level and he also doesn't throw his breaking pitches as much as others (meaning that on a per pitch basis he theoretically could get more value out of it). However, it will be interesting to see if Ryan's breaking stuff can remain at an above average #1 SP level in terms of value per pitch as it has been during his first 8 starts or so in the MLB. 

 

Joe Ryan - Early MLB Production continues to replicate minor league underlying profile

 

It will be really interesting to watch Ryan develop and see if he is able to dominate at the MLB level the way that he has in the minors given his unique pitching profile. During his initial 8 or so starts in the MLB, Ryan has flashed 3 pitches that suggest could be borderline elite to elite on a per pitch basis. Ryan has also continued to replicate his underlying splits from the minors (roughly) at the major league level:

 

Current MLB stats

 

8 starts (5 1/3 IP per start)

43 IP (4-2 W/L)

 

25 hits - 10 BB (1 HBP) - 46 K's

3.15 ERA - 0.82 WHIP

5.3 Hits (1.3 HRs) - 10 K's - 2.0 BBs (per 9 innings)

 

15% LD - 29% GB - 9% IFFB - 10.5% HR/FB  

 

Strike percentage - 68-70% (which also matches his minor league strike percentage)

 

Per 162 games

 

181 innings pitched (17-8 wins)

106 hit (26 HRs) - 42 BBs (4 HBPs) - 196 K's 

3.16 ERA - 0.82 WHIP

_IIt is pretty interesting that Ryan's early MLB numbers basically continue to be identical to his production across levels at AA, AAA, and so on within decimal points. Given Ryan's ability to continue to flirt with a 70%+ strike percentage, WHIP under 1, K rate over 10 per 9 innings backed up by a FB performing at league-leading per pitch value and two secondary pitches operating at a top 10 level or better on a per pitch basis his production actually makes sense. However, I do want to see Ryan start to show that he can take a couple of different steps (at least the first one being this season) to really solidify his development progress into the level of SP the Wolves haven't developed since Berrios.

 

How Joe Ryan has pitched in the MLB thus far. What's changing?

 

Ryan is initially (just 3 starts in) pitching hitters a little bit differently than he did during his rookie season. The most obvious change is that he is throwing his slider a lot more (16 to 31%) for the first time in his career at the expense of his FB (66 to 51%). The reason that Ryan is throwing this pitch more often is that he feels more comfortable with it after making some changes to his grip and how he throws the pitch. This has resulted in about a 1.2mpg increase in the velocity of his slider & a slight decrease in movement in exchange for that additional velocity. This increase & velocity and sharper break has resulted in an increase in whiff% and K% from 35-36% to 42-43%. 

Ryan has been quoted as saying he likes to "think cutter" with his slider and I have read that this pitch is sort of a "macro-cutter" where he has adjusted how he throws it and his grip but effectively it's something of a hybrid between the two. It seems that this combination of new grip/arm angle & the change in the movement & velocity profile has allowed Ryan to more confidently control this pitch early in the season. In addition, he's been missing more bats featuring this pitch more often.

It will be interesting if Ryan continues to deviate from his career trend and mix in more sliders as a "cutter" type pitch with horizontal break that's opposite of his 4-seam. In terms of his plan, the main difference is that Ryan is now throwing about 51% sliders - 47% 4-seam FB - 2% curve/change-ups to RHB versus last season where his pitch mix was about 63% FB - 32% - 5% curve + change last season. In addition, he also has thrown 9 sliders to LHB as well despite 10 less IP. His slider has also been his best putaway pitch at 30%.  Ryan clearly feels comfortable throwing this pitch right now. It will be interesting to see if he continues to be able to repeat this new slider and continues to find success with it. Ryan is also pitching to LHB's a little bit differently as well. He's throwing about 57% 4 seam FB after throwing 66% last season. The majority of this difference is again him showing his slider more often (8-9% of the time) versus 0% of the time.

Other small differences in his pitch profile include about a .6 mph increase in his avg 4-seam velocity with about a .7 decrease in vertical movement & a .7 increase in horizontal movement. This is probably just noise over any similar sample size but it seems like Ryan has been a little bit sharper and has even more vertical "rise" and more horizontal "run" combined with a .6mph velocity increase on average. This pitch has played slightly better in some ways at least as he's increased his whiff % from 20 --> 30%. This is the kind of increase the fangraphs article suggested should be expected.

In addition, his curveball this season has about 0.5 inches more of vertical drop and about a 1.5 increase in horizontal movement (slightly less 12-6 movement). This is a slight change that I would call noise but Ryan called out in another fangraphs interview is something that he thinks he wants to stay as well. It is also worth calling out that it's probably noise but his whiff rate / k rate / put away rates are all down 17%, 7%, and 7% respectively. That being said a 50% whiff rate would be hard to replicate over a large sample size. Opposing teams average & xwOBA are down this season. 

 

Note: This potentially could represent Step 2 that I called out above. It looks like Ryan is exploring with success early a varied approach in the way that he attacks RHB at least early this season. In addition, it is also interesting to look at the pitch movement charts and see the story laid out by Fangraphs about how Ryan's stuff gets lost through traditional movement measurement.

 

Conclusion 

 

Joe Ryan's development path to solidfying the #2 rotation spot

 

This is the first time I have really dug DEEP into understanding the hype behind Joe Ryan. I came into this research post thinking that Ryan had a good chance to be a solid middle of the rotation SP and an outside chance at developing into a solid/good #2 option. I come away from this analysis thinking that Ryan's development path is much closer to him being on the cusp of becoming a #2 caliber SP as soon as this season.

I also think that Ryan does have a clear chance of being a legit #1 SP, though I still want to spend more time watching and learning to understand where his ultimate upside is as a pitcher. The biggest reason for my change in belief about Ryan's near and long-term trajectory is what I learned about how Ryan profiles as a SP with an elite/dominant FB paired with two top 10ish or better breaking pitches on a per pitch basis. 

This is not a player whose stuff doesn't play at the MLB level like all of the Twins pitchers without elite velocity who have gotten shelled as they've tried to reach AAA/MLB and had their seemingly good control disappear once competition got better as well. This is not a Randy Dobnak one-elite-pitch type SP either. This is a SP that profiles to have arguably as good of 3-pitch mix almost any SP in the MLB. In addition, he profiles as a SP who limits walks & contact as well as just about any pitcher in the MLB as well because of how difficult his pitch mix is to face as a batter.

Ryan is not an uber-young phenom but that means his time is now to step in and start establishing himself as a major league SP. I do think I have two big underlying areas that I will be watching to see how quickly he starts to prove he can be trusted in that type of role. 

 

Opportunity 1

Ryan can take steps to develop as a pitcher within his skillset by showing that he can consistently command his fastball and elevate it in the zone in a way that maximizes his the "rise" of his 4-seam fastball given his lower release point. If he can consistently establish this pitch, establish the upper edge of the strike zone, and avoid the number of times he misses in the middle of the zone. 

Note - 

The season is early, but he's increased his whiff percentage by ~10% and decreased his "meatball" percentage by 2-3%. To me, these are steps that suggest that he's taking some steps early that suggest he's already moving in this direction. His fastball has been a better pitch thus far overall in terms of "stuff" this season at .6mph faster with more vertical rise factor and horizontal break in on righties.

Opportunity 2

I think the next step from there will be to see if Ryan needs to adjust or identify other plans that work outside of his heavy 4-seam FB approach and breaking stuff off of that. I think Ryan will likely need to develop a second pitch that he can throw foundationally in ABs to set up his other pitches off of. This would allow Ryan to change up ABs and emphasis for games where he doesn't have his FB control or teams seem to be keying on it in a deterimental way. Ryan's slider is really a reformed cutter that's been enhanced into a slider. It would be interesting to see if Ryan either develops a "shorter" cutter/slider type breaking ball he can use to set-up his FB and/or larger movement sliders.

Note - 

Ryan does appear to be taking early steps to explore this opportunity as well. Ryan is throwing a TON more sliders this year against both LH & RH batters but especially against RH batters (>50% sliders). Ryan has communicated that he has been tinkering with some small grip changes and in some ways thinks of this pitch as a cutter type of pitch. As such, he has started to throw the pitch harder (1-1.5mph) with sharper/tighter break. This has seemingly led to him being more comfortable controlling this pitch both to get ahead in counts early and as putaway pitch. Not only has he been throwing this pitch more but he's been getting more whiffs & strikeouts as well. Ryan appears to have started the season focused on becoming a more diversified pitcher with more diversified plans against different types of batters. I think this is a good thing. but I also would not want Ryan to fully go-away from his ability to establish his dominant fastball foundationally.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Great work! Really enjoyed it!

[4twinsJA]

Wow, great article. I really like Ryan as well, seems to be a real student of pitching- gets the analytics and art of pitching.

[Rosterman]

The only way we know if to give them a chance. Then it all ends up with pitching match-ups (for example, Ryan will be facing higher quality starters than, say, Archer or Paddock overall).

 

And it all depends on how each pitcher handles their pitches during a game, adjust when the batters adjust. You can't emphasize enough the ability to throw clean strikes with all your pitches.

[OptimisticTwinsFan]

Bailey Ober - The Twins continue to build a really unique staff

_____________________________________________________

I am also really optimistic about Ober's ability to be a really solid #3/4 type of SP that can be a really valuable player for the next 3-5 years for the Twins. Ober is also a SP "prospect" similar to Ryan who is older than you'd think (26) partially due to injuries and lost years from covid. Ober actually has only pitched 178 total innings & 32 starts over parts of 3 seasons in the minors above rookie ball (2018, 2019, and 2021) before being called up the major leagues and adding 92 innings and 20 games started in a sheltered role given his lack of innings pitched over his career. Including this season, he's pitched in almost 70% of the number of starts and 60% of the number of innings he did in the minors at the MLB level. 

The idea of Ober is really interesting because he has a massive frame. At 6'9 / 260, it is really easy to see Ober being really durable when stretched out. In addition, in the minors he was consistently able to show both a high level of control (only 23 BB's in 170 IP), an ability to miss bats (~11k's per 9 innings), and limit baserunners (.96 whip) despite not having elite velocity. It's easy to project that Bailey's velocity can play up with his release point being so close to the plate. 

Ober, similar to Ryan, is another pitcher who without elite velocity pitches at the top of the strike zone and is another fly-ball orientated pitcher (~40% GB% in the minors). The Twins FO clearly have a type and emphasize limiting walks & baserunners by pounding the top of the zone relying on Buxton to anchor their outfield defense and trading off an increase in HRs for less baserunners and action on the base paths. What made Ober really interesting is that working with the Twins FO he was able to increase his FB velocity by a few MPH last season and was throwing around 92-94mpg instead of 88-90mph like in the past. Again, Ober's velocity in games plays higher than that given his 6'9 reach and release point in relation to the plate. 

Ober produced well as a rookie in the MLB after virtually no minor league time

I think there is also a lot of reason to be excited about Ober's performance at the major league level given that he had only 16 innings at AAA along with those limited minor league reps. Ober only pitched 92 innings across 20 starts, but he was able to show that he could translate the majority of his control & ability to miss bats the MLB level allowing just 9 H's & 1.9 BB's per 9 innings (1.2 whip) and striking out 96 batters in 92 innings (9.5 K's per 9 innings). Ober's biggest issue during his rookie season was allowing 20 HRs in 92 innings and an astronomical ~17% HR/FB% (league average ~9%). Despite having a HR rate almost double the league average, Ober was able to record a solid 4.2 ERA. 

If you adjust this HR/FB% to just over league average Ober would have given up 9 fewer HRs. Those 9 HRs have an expected run percentage of ~14 runs. If we assume that that luck reverses and a couple of those die on the warning track, a few are hit with no men on base, and another few are hit with either one man or multiple men on base let's say they score 7-9 runs instead. This would have left Ober with a 3.5 - 3.7 era instead of a 4.2 era last season.

This exercise doesn't really matter other than to say that Ober will nominally give up more HRs than most pitchers because he's a fly-ball pitcher and because he doesn't have ELITE stuff. However, there is no reason that we should expect Ober's HR rate to be double the league average. Ober had a really solid season given his lack of experience and unfortunate luck as a rookie last season.

Ober doesn't have "elite-stuff" or an "elite-pitch" like Ryan, but he can mix 4 different pitches and miss a surprising amount of bats

Ober does not have an elite pitch, but he does sport a capable 4-pitch mix that he can control that suggests he can pitch deeper into games and mix things up. The most interesting trend for Ober is that as the season went on he started to get more and more swinging strikes across his pitch types. His fastball was not extraordinary, but effective. He finished with a 12.6% swinging strike percentage that rose from 9.7% in the first half to 14.7% in the second half. Ober's slider swinging strike percentage dropped from 14.5% to 12.7% post-ASB, but his changeup & curve went from 6 & 8% swinging strike percentage to 14.1% & 14.8% respectively. This is rough math and may be slightly off but this means that Ober had roughly a 13% swinging strike percentage post-ASB which would sandwich him between players like Montas, Woodruf, Alcantra, Castillo, and Nova for around 10th best among SPs in the MLB (Yes, there are problems with this Ober sample). This is not the stereotypical Twins pitch to contact / control / back of the rotation SP.

Ober is going to have some outings where he gives up FBs that end up as HRs and he isn't able to go deep in games. That being said, his ability to limit baserunners in a general sense should limit the impact of that damage. In addition, Ober's post-ASB splits where he flashed an ability to generate above average or even really good swinging strike percentage across 4 different types of pitches while avoiding BBs at an above average rate to me suggests that Ober has someone that's worth sticking with and developing. I think as Ober gains experience and over larger sample sizes Ober's HR rate per FB will come down a decent amount. In addition, I think Ober has potential to improve his BB rate even more as well. If Ober is able to develop a capable 4-pitch mix that he can use there is room for him to continue to get a little bit better at giving up less hard contact as well. 

Ober if he can continue to limit walks, generate swinging strikes, and normalize his HR% to around league average or even slightly above league average has the pitch-mix and frame to be a really durable #3/#4 SP ultimately I think in a similar mode to what Pineda was for the Twins when he's fully stretched out and able to go 6 innings more games than not as opposed to 4-5 innings. 

_______________________________________________________________

Early in 2022, Ober has seemingly started the season making incremental improvements in a lot of these areas that have been discussed. Ober's K% is down to about 7.5K per 9 innings (13k in 16 innings), but his swinging strike percentage is up from about 11.5 to 13.6%. He has also shown better control thus far increasing his first pitch strike percentage from 67 to 71% and lowering his BB rate thus far to 1.7 (4.5%) compared to 1.9 (5.0%). Lastly, he's decreased his HR rate at a similar percentage to what I did when filtering his 2021 performance from 1.9 to 1.1 HRs per 9 innings or from ~18% to roughly 8%. Lastly, he's giving up slightly less hits (7.3 versus 9 hits per 9 innings) to average a 1.0 whip. 

This is a tiny 16 inning sample size and he is benefiting from some batted ball luck right now. This is not to say any of these numbers will remain the same. However, it is really great to see Ober averaging 5 1/3 IP per start versus 4 IP per start while continuing to attack the strike zone demonstrating reliable control and mixing pitches to keep hitters off-balance and generate swinging strikes while subsequently normalizing his HR rate to something resembling league average.

Ober's underlying peripherals to me seem to suggest he's capable of producing surprisingly good stat lines

Ober if he can continue to build on the underlying peripherals highlighted in this post should produce really strong #3/#4 SP numbers and eventually turn into a 160-180 IP - 30+ GS with a 3.75-4.0 ERA on a consistent basis with multiple years under a 4 ERA. To me, Ober seems like he is someone that is easily projectable into a Pineda clone for a lot of reasons both frame and stylistically.

I think it's probably true that the player archetype I described is ideally your #4 if you're contending versus being slated to start a playoff series. Though, I think Ober could be reliably used to get through 2 times through the order in a playoff game and I think he can be a #3 during a regular season as long as hopefully the team isn't fielding borderline MLB pitchers behind him. 

I personally think that Twins fans should be really excited about Ober's development and projection solidfying the middle/back half of the Twins rotation. Pineda type players are harder to find than realized, especially one who is young enough to stick around for awhile and even has projectable upside versus trying to reclaim journeymen or aging vets to get that type of production.

I am having fun watching the Twins staff build an identity attacking the top of the strike zone with Buxton anchoring the OF defense. 

Ryan & Ober's development helps it feel like the Twins rotation can be above average over the short term (2 seasons) and medium term (3-4 seasons)

Ryan & Ober's development into really solid #2/3 & #3/4 caliber starters with the upside to be more than that (especially in Ryan's case) is really great to see. Both players have been developing in the major leagues because of the weird era of covid that they were brought up in and are clearly showing improvements as well as underlying profiles that suggest further improvement is coming. 

I think Sonny Gray still has plenty left in the tank once he returns healthy this season to be a #1/2 caliber SP both this season and next season. To me, Gray - Ryan - ___ - Ober is a strong rotation foundation. If Balazovic can earn a spot, even in an Ober type 4-5 inning per game role and get his development back on track that would really be the last piece that gets me really excited.

 

 

 

 

[OptimisticTwinsFan]

2 hours ago, Sconnie said:

Great work! Really enjoyed it!

Delete

 

 

 

[OptimisticTwinsFan]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

The only way we know if to give them a chance. Then it all ends up with pitching match-ups (for example, Ryan will be facing higher quality starters than, say, Archer or Paddock overall).

 

And it all depends on how each pitcher handles their pitches during a game, adjust when the batters adjust. You can't emphasize enough the ability to throw clean strikes with all your pitches.

I agree that we don't yet know how Ryan's pitching production will scale when he's asked to do more or teams are more familiar with him and have seen him more often. 

My overall point is not that there isn't development work that needs to be done. My overall point is that we don't accurately perceive as Twins fans what we are watching start to develop. This is because of all of the unique reasons in which Ryan doesn't check traditional boxes of a phenom level prospect. 

This is a pitcher with one of the more dominant minor league track records that one could have. When you really dig in, what you realize is that Ryan's dominance is driven by both one of the most elite pitches of any type in the league (his fastball) and two different breaking pitches that may be top 5-10 or better caliber pitches in their pitch type when you focus on the output of the results that batters are able to produce when that pitch is thrown at them.

Ryan's pitch mix coming into the league combined with his command represent an elite skillset. If you "accept" what the data suggests about how difficult to hit Ryan's pitches are and you think there is logic behind the explanations of how Ryan's pitches create the results on hitters that they do when combined together and deployed against hitters; it starts to become clear that Ryan is a phenom hiding in plain sight. 

This is a Johan fastball/change-up/breaking ball situation. Ryan's pitch mix creates the same issues around timing and solid contact that Johan's pitch mix did and I'm sure there are other examples. Johan was the same, but Ryan doesn't even need to throw the ball outside of the strike zone. Ryan's unique arm angle + spin + release point on his fastball create a unique angle from which the ball starts and ultimately crosses the plate that creates really difficult movement. This is already one of the best pitches in the MLB. Ryan's curveball has spin that mirrors his fastball almost identically until the breakpoint from which the ball either ends up at 93mph on the upper inside corner to RH betters or 73 mpg on the lower outside corner of the zone. 

Ryan doesn't have to throw the ball outside of the zone. Hitters already struggle to hit his fastball because of how unique the release point and movement across the plate is. Now they have to identify if this is a fastball on their hands or if this is 20mph slower at their knees and if I don't swing it's a strike? Oh and Ryan can throw in a horizontal pitch that moves in a completely different direction 10mph in between each of those. This is why Ryan can just pound the zone with his fastball over and over again and mix in offspeed to keep hitters off balance. Ryan doesn't need to expand the zone to get weak contact or swinging strikes and can continually get ahead of hitters and avoid walks.

_______________________________________

Ryan has continued to produce the same underlying splits at the major league level as he did at the minor league level. This is what this is and it's time to recognize it. Ryan will need to develop and learn how to be a top pitches, how to handle a full season, and how to adjust once teams do get more tape on him. However, you could put this pitch mix and command of the strike zone next to Strasburg's when he came into the MLB and make a realistic argument that Ryan's is nastier and harder to hit than Strasbug.

[GNess]

Excellent article.

[tony&rodney]

It is much more fun to be optimistic. Right? It is a little early to declare great things for Ober or Ryan, but they are doing just fine so far. The non rookies, Bundy, Archer, Paddack, and Gray, have also been throwing strikes and getting outs. That's good.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I wonder if high school baseball teams are going to start having their pitchers play water polo in the winter.