Joe Ryan and Nick Gordon

[nicksaviking]

14 hours ago, wabene said:

85 in Radke's day is 92 now, hmm.

No, even back then everyone gave Jamie Moyer a hard time for being a soft tosser throwing in the mid 80s. Radke was more like 88-89 though.

But he couldn't strike anyone out.  Ryan has been able to miss bats at every level. Both have good control, but without the ability to strike anyone out, Radke always had a pretty limited ceiling.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I wonder if perhaps your crew chief considered the long history of right-handed  Riverbrians being better at putting left handed money in bags, or your personal minor league criminal history when you were robbing liquor stores instead of banks and doing all the work yourself?

Wait ... are you attempting analytics here?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

20 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Except Garlick can't mash lefties and he's also playing against righties. He's hitting .286 with a .714 OPS against lefties, .182 with a .636 OPS overall. Why on earth is he playing? Kepler is hitting .267 with a .754 OPS against lefties this year; for some reason he now can't hit RH pitching. IF we have room to keep Garlick around as a 5th OF/ RH pinch hitter, ok. But for God's sake, don't ever put him in the regular lineup. He isn't good enough.   

I really would like to see them give Gordon an everyday run in LF to see what he can do. Celestino can play occasionally against LH starters and Larnach can either play 1B or really should probably be in AAA getting every day ABs. We could use Gordon's speed and defense in the lineup and so far he's the one hitting. Performance matters. Gordon is performing; let's give him the shot. If it doesn't work, move on to the next. 

No, that’s .714 slugging… that’s a 1.000 OPS against lefties 198 wRC+ so he’s only 98% better than average. He had that kind of success in 2019 and 2021 as well.

Garlick should absolutely be in the lineup against Lefties. I’d platoon him over Larnach or stick him at DH, and give Gordon as many at bats as I can while Buxton gets back up to game speed and slide Gordon over to LF when Buxton comes back. Gordon has hit better than all of the LF options available (day in and out) but there’s room for both Gordon and Garlick in this morass of a lineup

[nicksaviking]

If there's one thing this club has been good at, it's finding obscure or overlooked utility infielders who have surprisingly decent bats. Dozier, Escobar, Nunez, Adrianza, Arraez, now hopefully Gordon. 

Looks like Spencer Steer is looking to jump in line too.

[Brandon]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

If there's one thing this club has been good at, it's finding obscure or overlooked utility infielders who have surprisingly decent bats. Dozier, Escobar, Nunez, Adrianza, Arraez, now hopefully Gordon. 

Looks like Spencer Steer is looking to jump in line too.

Don’t forget  Nick Punto, Al Newman, Jeff Reboulet, Pat Meares, and all time great Cesar Tovar

[LA VIkes Fan]

8 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

No, that’s .714 slugging… that’s a 1.000 OPS against lefties 198 wRC+ so he’s only 98% better than average. He had that kind of success in 2019 and 2021 as well.

Garlick should absolutely be in the lineup against Lefties. I’d platoon him over Larnach or stick him at DH, and give Gordon as many at bats as I can while Buxton gets back up to game speed and slide Gordon over to LF when Buxton comes back. Gordon has hit better than all of the LF options available (day in and out) but there’s room for both Gordon and Garlick in this morass of a lineup

Thanks for the update, I misread the stats. I could see Garlick at the RH DH, gets his "glove" out of the field, maybe in tandem with Larnach. I couldn't agree more on Gordon - let's give him 4 ABs a game for 10 days and see what we have. Hit him 9th with Buxton leading off - or even hit them 1 and 2, and let's see if going to speed helps shock this lineup into more production.  Maybe a batting order like Gordon (LF), Buxton (CF), Polanco (2B), Correa (SS), Arraez (1B), Urshela (3B), Sano/Larnach/Garlick/Sanchez (DH), Sanchez/Jeffers (C), Kepler (RF). 

[USAFChief]

29 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Wait ... are you attempting analytics here?

Waddaya mean "attempting?"

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Thanks for the update, I misread the stats. I could see Garlick at the RH DH, gets his "glove" out of the field, maybe in tandem with Larnach. I couldn't agree more on Gordon - let's give him 4 ABs a game for 10 days and see what we have. Hit him 9th with Buxton leading off - or even hit them 1 and 2, and let's see if going to speed helps shock this lineup into more production.  Maybe a batting order like Gordon (LF), Buxton (CF), Polanco (2B), Correa (SS), Arraez (1B), Urshela (3B), Sano/Larnach/Garlick/Sanchez (DH), Sanchez/Jeffers (C), Kepler (RF). 

I think I'd hit Gordon 9th and go Buxton-Arraez-Polanco-Correa-Urshela-Flavor of the day-Catcher of the day-Kepler-Gordon. But I like the idea here. Gives us likely our best defensive lineup, and there's very few guys who could complain about a lack of ABs with how they're all performing right now. I just think keeping Gordon 9 keeps the pressure off him and lets him just play for those 10 days you suggest and they can adjust things from there. I'd do that lineup for the rest of April and make adjustments when rosters go back down to 26 in May with a better idea of what we have with Gordon and others.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Except Garlick can't mash lefties and he's also playing against righties. He's hitting .286 with a .714 OPS against lefties, .182 with a .636 OPS overall. Why on earth is he playing?

Okay. First, are you literally using seven plate appearances to evaluate Garlick?

Second, his OPS against LHP in those seven PAs is actually 1.000.

In around 100 career PAs against LHP - still not even a sample size that I feel comfortable using - his OPS is .874.

[Brock Beauchamp]

53 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

No, even back then everyone gave Jamie Moyer a hard time for being a soft tosser throwing in the mid 80s. Radke was more like 88-89 though.

But he couldn't strike anyone out.  Ryan has been able to miss bats at every level. Both have good control, but without the ability to strike anyone out, Radke always had a pretty limited ceiling.

If Joe Ryan comes anywhere near Brad Radke's career, we'll all rejoice.

Why do people so constantly underrate Radke? The dude pitched to a career 38.7 fWAR and and 45.6 rWAR while retiring at age 33. He's friggin' second on the Twins all-time career WAR leaderboard.

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If Joe Ryan comes anywhere near Brad Radke's career, we'll all rejoice.

Why do people so constantly underrate Radke? The dude pitched to a career 38.7 fWAR and and 45.6 rWAR while retiring at age 33. He's friggin' second on the Twins all-time career WAR leaderboard.

And took the ball when asked. 

[cHawk]

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

 

That is one fine cat! Can I have one?

[wsnydes]

14 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Waddaya mean "attempting?"

My thesaurus says "see also, trying".

Hope this helps! 

[Squirrel]

11 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

And took the ball when asked. 

With a shoulder that was about to fall off, and did well

[Squirrel]

12 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

My thesaurus says "see also, trying".

Hope this helps! 

A friend told me that his doctor asked him the other day if he had been laying off the pasta like she recommended. He looked up at her and said "I'm trying Doc". It had been awhile since his last appointment so it was a little surprising to him to run into her at the Olive Garden like that.

[wsnydes]

5 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

A friend told me that his doctor asked him the other day if he had been laying off the pasta like she recommended. He looked up at her and said "I'm trying Doc". It had been awhile since his last appointment so it was a little surprising to him to run into her at the Olive Garden like that.

I heard this same story!  It keeps getting better each time I read it! ?

[nicksaviking]

32 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If Joe Ryan comes anywhere near Brad Radke's career, we'll all rejoice.

Why do people so constantly underrate Radke? The dude pitched to a career 38.7 fWAR and and 45.6 rWAR while retiring at age 33. He's friggin' second on the Twins all-time career WAR leaderboard.

I loved Radke, he was one of my favorites. He was really good and he was exactly what the team needed to solidify the rotation when they were just starting their competitive stage.

But I mean, I'm don't feel I need to bedazzle his career. Super high floor, but since he didn't have the stuff to mow down the opponents, he couldn't exactly take over games by himself. He wasn't in the top tier of MLB pitchers during his prime, which is fine. Looking at his BBR comparable pitchers, Bronson Arroyo, Jon Lieber, Tim Belcher, that seems maybe a bit low, but not too far off. 

Though, I'm not sure using the Twins pitching career WAR leaderboard is as great as it sounds. This organization can only ever manage to produce about one decent starter a decade.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Sconnie said:

No, that’s .714 slugging… that’s a 1.000 OPS against lefties 198 wRC+ so he’s only 98% better than average. He had that kind of success in 2019 and 2021 as well.

Garlick should absolutely be in the lineup against Lefties. I’d platoon him over Larnach or stick him at DH, and give Gordon as many at bats as I can while Buxton gets back up to game speed and slide Gordon over to LF when Buxton comes back. Gordon has hit better than all of the LF options available (day in and out) but there’s room for both Gordon and Garlick in this morass of a lineup

I don't know what Garlick is.  

111 Sporadic AB's against LH over the course of 4 years. 

83 even more sporadic AB's against RH over the course of 4 years.  

His sample size isn't even close to large enough to make any determinations on either side of the plate.  

An average of 28 AB's a year against LH and 21 AB's a year against RH. With the overwhelming majority of pitchers in baseball being right handed... it clearly indicates pretty strict platoon usage and awfully scarce playing time to boot. 

Nothing in his minor league stats suggest that platooning was necessary in the first place. Even if he could have hit right handers back in 2019... after 3 years of this type of utilization, the right handed pitching part of his game has atrophied and surgically removed by now. 

Garlick is in his 30's now. The damage is done. He basically worthless to me at this point. There is no chance of increasing his value.   

Turning attention to Gordon and Celestino who are younger and could develop into something of value. Platooning will kill that but here it is. 

Meanwhile, Kepler gets to walk past the lineup card without checking if his name is on it. 

I guess.. you could say that I'm not a fan of platooning and Gordon is getting sucked into that role. Put an egg timer on him. He will be done soon.  

 

 

[Aggies7]

16 hours ago, wabene said:

85 in Radke's day is 92 now, hmm.

dang, inflation is affecting everything

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Except Garlick can't mash lefties and he's also playing against righties. He's hitting .286 with a .714 OPS against lefties, .182 with a .636 OPS overall. Why on earth is he playing? Kepler is hitting .267 with a .754 OPS against lefties this year; for some reason he now can't hit RH pitching. IF we have room to keep Garlick around as a 5th OF/ RH pinch hitter, ok. But for God's sake, don't ever put him in the regular lineup. He isn't good enough.   

I really would like to see them give Gordon an everyday run in LF to see what he can do. Celestino can play occasionally against LH starters and Larnach can either play 1B or really should probably be in AAA getting every day ABs. We could use Gordon's speed and defense in the lineup and so far he's the one hitting. Performance matters. Gordon is performing; let's give him the shot. If it doesn't work, move on to the next. 

Please give guys more than 20 PAs before you brand them successes or failures. Nick Gordon has had a nice run early and he should get more playing time, but writing him in as a regular for the season on his last ten PAs is shortsighted at best. Garlick's limited history against left handed pitching is very good and he got one start against a righty (yesterday on getaway day) and Gordon was in the lineup. I'm not the biggest Garlick fan, but give him a chance over a bit more time, nor am I the biggest Gordon critic, but again don't make judgments based on so few plate appearances (I know at one point in Boston, Gordon was at .182).

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

A friend told me that his doctor asked him the other day if he had been laying off the pasta like she recommended. He looked up at her and said "I'm trying Doc". It had been awhile since his last appointment so it was a little surprising to him to run into her at the Olive Garden like that.

If she was so concerned about me she could have offered to pick up the tab.

[USAFChief]

46 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I don't know what Garlick is.  

111 Sporadic AB's against LH over the course of 4 years. 

83 even more sporadic AB's against RH over the course of 4 years.  

His sample size isn't even close to large enough to make any determinations on either side of the plate.  

An average of 28 AB's a year against LH and 21 AB's a year against RH. With the overwhelming majority of pitchers in baseball being right handed... it clearly indicates pretty strict platoon usage and awfully scarce playing time to boot. 

Nothing in his minor league stats suggest that platooning was necessary in the first place. Even if he could have hit right handers back in 2019... after 3 years of this type of utilization, the right handed pitching part of his game has atrophied and surgically removed by now. 

Garlick is in his 30's now. The damage is done. He basically worthless to me at this point. There is no chance of increasing his value.   

Turning attention to Gordon and Celestino who are younger and could develop into something of value. Platooning will kill that but here it is. 

Meanwhile, Kepler gets to walk past the lineup card without checking if his name is on it. 

I guess.. you could say that I'm not a fan of platooning and Gordon is getting sucked into that role. Put an egg timer on him. He will be done soon.  

 

 

Again...Kyle Garlick didnt get just 200 PAs over the last 4 years. You're forgetting (or ignoring) 1800+ MiLB PAs that tell us quite a bit about Kyle Garlick. You're forgetting (or ignoring) 150 years of baseball that tell us platoon splits are a real, and persistent thing for virtually all hitters (and I don't trust the few outliers).

It's getting harder and harder to do with benches getting shorter and shorter, but platoons are one of the easiest and most reliable and predictable ways to squeeze more offense out of available resources. 

We don't have a corner outfielder who hits at a level where you just let him play every day if you don't have to. I wish we had Mike Trout in left field, but pretending Kyle Garlick might someday be one if only somebody invested 2500 PAs in him against RH pitching would be, quite honestly, dumb.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I loved Radke, he was one of my favorites. He was really good and he was exactly what the team needed to solidify the rotation when they were just starting their competitive stage.

But I mean, I'm don't feel I need to bedazzle his career. Super high floor, but since he didn't have the stuff to mow down the opponents, he couldn't exactly take over games by himself. He wasn't in the top tier of MLB pitchers during his prime, which is fine. Looking at his BBR comparable pitchers, Bronson Arroyo, Jon Lieber, Tim Belcher, that seems maybe a bit low, but not too far off. 

Though, I'm not sure using the Twins pitching career WAR leaderboard is as great as it sounds. This organization can only ever manage to produce about one decent starter a decade.

No matter how you shake it, Radke accumulated 45 rWAR in 11 seasons. He posted 5 rWAR seasons two times and 6 rWAR seasons two more times.

Radke was better than you're giving him credit for being. Whether he got there through what we consider the "optimal route" is irrelevant, as he was consistently way above average as a starting pitcher. Advanced metrics are only useful in smaller sample sizes, when you reach several thousand career IP and a guy is a very good pitcher using standard stats like ERA+, he's a very good pitcher, period.

If Joe Ryan has an 11 year career averaging about 4 rWAR per season, that's a 99th percentile outcome for him.

As for the leaderboard, go grab a random team and place Radke on their pitching leaderboard. He's top five in most orgs and top two in many others. For example, he'd be fourth on the Phillies, third on the Cubs, fourth on the Red Sox, second on the Mets, first on the Brewers, etc.... People really undervalue how bloody hard it is for a pitcher to accumulate over 40 career WAR.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Again...Kyle Garlick didnt get just 200 PAs over the last 4 years. You're forgetting (or ignoring) 1800+ MiLB PAs that tell us quite a bit about Kyle Garlick. You're forgetting (or ignoring) 150 years of baseball that tell us platoon splits are a real, and persistent thing for virtually all hitters (and I don't trust the few outliers).

It's getting harder and harder to do with benches getting shorter and shorter, but platoons are one of the easiest and most reliable and predictable ways to squeeze more offense out of available resources. 

We don't have a corner outfielder who hits at a level where you just let him play every day if you don't have to. I wish we had Mike Trout in left field, but pretending Kyle Garlick might someday be one if only somebody invested 2500 PAs in him against RH pitching would be, quite honestly, dumb.

Forget about Mike Trout... I'm not asking for Mike Trout. But the "quite honestly dumb" thrown my way felt real good considering that I never mentioned Mike Trout. 

I understand the platoon advantage. Historically it's about .100 OPS difference utilizing the platoon advantage across baseball over those 150 years. A lot of hitters and a lot of pitchers played a lot of of baseball to create that a large demonstrable  historical platoon advantage. I'm aware of it.  

But, it isn't one size fits all 

Keeping it simple -- Who hits Right Handers Better? 

Player A (Left Handed Hitter)

.750 OPS vs right handed pitchers

.650 OPS Vs left handed pitchers

Player B (Right Handed Hitter)

.775 OPS vs right handed pitchers

.800 OPS vs left handed pitchers 

Or do we just platoon them anyway because Player A clearly shouldn't be playing against left handers. 

As for ignoring Kyle Garlicks 1800 minor league trips to the plate. I haven't!

I've said multiple times that there is nothing in Kyle Garlick's minor league stats that suggest he should be platooned. He did hit lefties a little better in the minors but he didn't suck hitting right handers either. The difference was not enormous. His numbers didn't suggest he should be protected from the RH pitcher.     

It's about development. If you want to reduce future value of players, if want to create platoon specialists. This is how you do it. Just keep the opposite hand away from him. Make sure that the opposite hand stays foreign to him and dispose of him when a player comes along that you decide doesn't have to do that. 

Just call up Celestino and just let him hit against left handers on a short side platoon and then toss him to the side when the next Max Kepler comes along.      

 

 

 

 

 

[Muppet]

All this talk about whether Gordon or Garlick are remotely capable and I can’t help noticing that the twins’ DH is hitting .083 and the cleanup guy is under the Mendoza Line. 

[bird]

23 hours ago, Thegrin said:

If Arraez can play first base, Gordon can play it better.  Don't get me wrong, I love Arraez' bat, but his only position is 2b.

You might be right. But I must have flunked the eye test, because to me, he handled 1B rather admirably considering he probably hasn't even practiced over there fore more that a few sessions, and never had that magical coaching experience there with Tom Kelly.  I was mostly impressed with his instincts.

[bird]

22 hours ago, Sconnie said:

Gordon started in Center over Celestino quite a bit. I don’t think Gordon’s impact is lost on Rocco.

Gordon has been the best of the worst for this team. I don’t want to take anything away from him, but I’d love to see the FO find an improvement upon him.

Yeah, my guess is that Falvey is thinking, hey, this Gordon is an asset that is significantly more valuable now than he was a year ago. Whereas Baldelli is thinking, hey, Gordon may be able to help us eke out a win or two that we otherwise wouldn't get this season.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

 

Keeping it simple -- Who hits Right Handers Better? 

Player A (Left Handed Hitter)

.750 OPS vs right handed pitchers

.650 OPS Vs left handed pitchers

Player B (Right Handed Hitter)

.775 OPS vs right handed pitchers

.800 OPS vs left handed pitchers 

Or do we just platoon them anyway because Player A clearly shouldn't be playing against left handers. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Keeping it simple, Player B hits both RHers and LHers better than Player A, so I'm playing Player B. There is no platoon advantage.

 

The reason for Garlick getting ABs is the high likelihood there IS an advantage in this case.

 

Out of the abstract, into the real world, I'd prefer the Twins have better options. Since they don't, platooning the current options makes all kinds of sense.

[Twodogs]

On 4/21/2022 at 2:47 PM, RpR said:

He could, with experience from not being tossed to the wolves but being brought up slowly,  turn into another Ceasar Tovar.

Interestingly enough, Tovar's best ops ever was .798.  he only went over .700 ops 4 times in his career.  His lifetime ops+ was only 100.  According to the newer stats Tovar was only a league average player.  I'd like to think he was a little bit better than that.  But the new stats are saying he wasn't?  

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Twodogs said:

Interestingly enough, Tovar's best ops ever was .798.  he only went over .700 ops 4 times in his career.  His lifetime ops+ was only 100.  According to the newer stats Tovar was only a league average player.  I'd like to think he was a little bit better than that.  But the new stats are saying he wasn't?  

WAR in particular gives no real credit for being a versatile defender, unless one is a really good defender. Tovar played a lot of third base, outfield and some in the middle infield, and while he wasn't great, he wasn't an embarrassment. I think managers really appreciate that more than the stats can show. Tovar also never walked much and didn't have great power, so his OBP and slugging weren't very impressive.

Like Tovar, Arraez is valuable for his offense and adds value in a manager's mind by being able to take the field and not embarrass himself at multiple positions.