Twins and Padres finalize the Paddack/Rogers trade by naming PTBNL

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

[gunnarthor]

That's usually a bit better than your normal PTBNL. 

[Blyleven2011]

I guess not to bad , young and a pitcher  ,,, let's hope that he makes good on the trade

[tony&rodney]

The Twins can always say that it takes five years to judge the trade.

[chpettit19]

Not going to lie, that's a better prospect than I expected them to get. Hope he does well and they can get him some more consistent control, but he's got a real live arm. Petty replacement as a high velo young arm in rookie ball?

[Dman]

That seems high considering the Padres only got one year of Rogers.    The only way I can see that it justifies a return this high to me is if I guess they believe Rooker is going to turn out in time Or is this the extra money they kicked in?  Not sure but a pretty good get considering what else the Twins got in trade.

Kid has a live arm but hasn't pitched this year yet.  Lot's of walks so plenty of control issue but he is only 19.  It is just that looking at Cruz and the good velocity and poor control this looks like a boom or bust deal IMO. Always nice to have young arms with great potential in the system.  Not quite a Petty replacement but seems better than normal for a PTBNL.

[cHawk]

We got a young pitcher in the trade. Never hurts.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Not going to lie, that's a better prospect than I expected them to get. Hope he does well and they can get him some more consistent control, but he's got a real live arm. Petty replacement as a high velo young arm in rookie ball?

He might be Petty like in the end hard to say with both of them so young.  I think I like Petty's chances better though.  However, I also don't know much about Medina either.  Good Velo with a good slider should keep him moving through the system with decent results.  Hoping that changeup keeps him a starter but if he ticks up in the pen he could be a hard throwing pen arm as well.  Pretty good get (nice potential) for a PTBNL.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Dman said:

He might be Petty like in the end hard to say with both of them so young.  I think I like Petty's chances better though.  However, I also don't know much about Medina either.  Good Velo with a good slider should keep him moving through the system with decent results.  Hoping that changeup keeps him a starter but if he ticks up in the pen he could be a hard throwing pen arm as well.  Pretty good get (nice potential) for a PTBNL.

Yeah, that's how I see it, too. If I had to pick 1 I'd go Petty, but that might just be because I actually know a little something about him since he was drafted by the Twins so I learned about him and such while I'm just reading quick scouting report snippets about Medina now. I think it's a nice get for a PTBNL in a deal that felt pretty even to start with.

[ashbury]

Big arm, can't hit the broad side of a barn apparently.  Twins' have their work cut out for them, to make anything out of him.

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

Big arm, can't hit the broad side of a barn apparently.  Twins' have their work cut out for them, to make anything out of him.

Good thing they don't ask pitchers to specifically do that. 

[IndianaTwin]

The impression I get from this FO is that they are really good at getting close to the end of negotiations and then saying, “Oh, and could you throw in (a PTBNL, an option year on a contract, etc.)”

On the prospect side, I’m not sure that we’ve seen it pan out yet, at least in part because these add-ins are usually a little ways away, but it certainly has on the contract side. To that end, I’m intrigued and impressed.

I wonder, too, if having his pedigree included in the announcement of the original trade would have softened the resistance to the trade. Probably not, because this is the Internet, but I wonder.  

[SE23]

I would say that is a steal!!

[Otto von Ballpark]

MLB.com ranked Medina 14th for the Padres, but per MLBTR, BA only had him 26th last year. Fangraphs lists him at 35+ FV right now, and had him 27th on the updated Padres list last season.

Until they revise it, that Fangraphs FV grade would rank Medina in the 31-40 range in the Twins org, with the following guys:

31	Sean Mooney	24.2	A+	SP	2023	35+
32	Will Holland	23.9	A	2B	2024	35+
33	Yilber Herrera	17.2	R	SS	2027	35+
34	David Festa	22.0	A	SP	2025	35+
35	Christian MacLeod	21.9	R	SP	2025	35+
36	Jovani Moran	24.9	MLB	SIRP	2022	35+
37	Steven Cruz	22.8	A+	SIRP	2023	35+
38	Yennier Cano	28.0	AAA	SIRP	2022	35+
39	Francis Peguero	24.6	A+	SIRP	2022	35+
40	Juan Mendez	23.4	R	SIRP	2025	35+

[bunsen82]

This seems like an overpay by the padres, but for the padres to get under the salary cap and get cash, and Roger’s they felt it was worth it. Honestly this was a good trade for both teams. The padres are a legit WS team and Rogers helps them on that front. Pagan can be serviceable for the twins, and Paddack looks like assuming he can remain healthy the twins will be able to tweak him to be an above average pitcher.   Medina has all the talent in the world, but is obviously still raw and has some command issues. Now he could bust out due to command issues, but his floor appears to be a reliever, or possibly a middle tier starter if he can develop a third pitch. That is awfully good for a ptbnl.   The twins continue to improve their pipeline.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

12 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I wonder, too, if having his pedigree included in the announcement of the original trade would have softened the resistance to the trade. Probably not, because this is the Internet, but I wonder.  

What's the "pedigree" here exactly?

It's not in the statistical record yet (although to be fair, Medina is still young).

MLB ranked him 19th in the 2019-2020 international class, although I'm not sure what that's worth 2+ years later. FWIW, Medina's $700k bonus would put him between Malfrin Sosa and Yonardy Sota on the Twins international signing list that year -- do those names connote a "pedigree" right now?

MLB ranked Medina fairly well on their Padres prospect list this winter, but that seems a bit of an outlier compared to BA and Fangraphs -- and it's about the only thing that suggests Medina isn't a fairly standard lotto ticket for this type of trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

5 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

his floor appears to be a reliever, or possibly a middle tier starter if he can develop a third pitch.

Medina hasn't pitched outside of the Arizona Complex League and the Dominican Summer League yet. I don't think he's even at a point where you can project a "floor" for him. That's not a knock on him -- these players all have to start somewhere -- but I feel like we're getting ahead of ourselves here.

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

This seems like an overpay by the padres, but for the padres to get under the salary cap and get cash, and Roger’s they felt it was worth it. Honestly this was a good trade for both teams. The padres are a legit WS team and Rogers helps them on that front. Pagan can be serviceable for the twins, and Paddack looks like assuming he can remain healthy the twins will be able to tweak him to be an above average pitcher.   Medina has all the talent in the world, but is obviously still raw and has some command issues. Now he could bust out due to command issues, but his floor appears to be a reliever, or possibly a middle tier starter if he can develop a third pitch. That is awfully good for a ptbnl.   The twins continue to improve their pipeline.  

His floor appears to be a reliever? You mean in A ball reliever? I think his floor is out of baseball in a few years, that is not what I am hoping, but it is way better to assume a 19 year old that can't throw strikes is never going to amount to anything, man even a 19 year that can throw strikes you can assume won't make it.

With that said it is great to get a guy with a really live arm, there is no down side, he isn't close to needed to be added to the 40 I assume, so he can spend a few years trying to figure it out and if not he gone.

[tony&rodney]

We will wait some time before anyone knows how this young man will turn out. I hope he does, as a Twins fan.

He is, FWIW,  well behind  Chase Petty both in talent and in development. Nice that folks fall in love with the prospects but we will need Paddack to continue what he has done so far and hope Pagan works out. Rogers is still a good relief pitcher and the goal of any franchise is for the top team to win. 

[bunsen82]

8 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

His floor appears to be a reliever? You mean in A ball reliever? I think his floor is out of baseball in a few years, that is not what I am hoping, but it is way better to assume a 19 year old that can't throw strikes is never going to amount to anything, man even a 19 year that can throw strikes you can assume won't make it.

With that said it is great to get a guy with a really live arm, there is no down side, he isn't close to needed to be added to the 40 I assume, so he can spend a few years trying to figure it out and if not he gone.

Did you read the first part of the sentence, he could wash out due to control issues? Yes he is a live arm, yes I am doing some projection, even still the current pitching program seems to be doing very well at developing these pitchers, and also seeing traits they like they can work on.  He was extremely young for these leagues. Stating he has control issues is a bit of a misnomer. I wish the kid well.

[roger]

I was hoping for a catcher, but this kid is a much better prospect than expected from a PTBNL.  The Twins site ranking has him around their top signings the past few years, Urbina, Rodriguez and DeAndrade.  If accurate takes a good trade to a great one, IMO.

Unfortunately, it tells me the Twins FO is looking beyond 2022.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Did you read the first part of the sentence, he could wash out due to control issues? Yes he is a live arm, yes I am doing some projection, even still the current pitching program seems to be doing very well at developing these pitchers, and also seeing traits they like they can work on.  He was extremely young for these leagues. Stating he has control issues is a bit of a misnomer. I wish the kid well.

Sorry, I guess I didn't know a floor was two fold, wash out and or reliever. As of now they have developed Ober, Maybe Winder, maybe Alcala and Maybe Duran, yes there seems to be a good looking group coming but lets cross our fingers they mostly work out. I have a hard time giving them credit for developing Ryan  (it was a great trade) and then giving them a pass on Strotman at this point.

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Unfortunately, it tells me the Twins FO is looking beyond 2022.

In fairness, PTBNLs are more likely to be long term acquisitions in the first place.  Plus, the headliners of the trade were clearly for now, so looking down the road isn't a bad thing.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, wsnydes said:

In fairness, PTBNLs are more likely to be long term acquisitions in the first place.  Plus, the headliners of the trade were clearly for now, so looking down the road isn't a bad thing.

I think this was a trade filling both considerations. The Twins needed more starters today so they acquired Paddack. They need more pitchers tomorrow so they took the PTBNL.

Which is kind of how this organization needs to operate. They shouldn't be the Rays and constantly trade for future value but they should be constantly exploring a mix of acquisitions, always trying to get $1.01+ while giving up $1.00.

[wsnydes]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think this was a trade filling both considerations. The Twins needed more starters today so they acquired Paddack. They need more pitchers tomorrow so they took the PTBNL.

Which is kind of how this organization needs to operate. They shouldn't be the Rays and constantly trade for future value but they should be constantly exploring a mix of acquisitions, always trying to get $1.01+ while giving up $1.00.

That's pretty much what I was saying, or at least trying to say.  My comment was just geared more towards the comment that I was replying to regarding the direction that the PTNBL was representing.