Rocco, Usage, and the Twins Bullpen

[Ted Schwerzler]

The day before the Minnesota Twins were set to kick off their 2022 Major League Baseball season, closer and clubhouse veteran Taylor Rogers was traded. There was internal confidence in this bullpen, and it seemed warranted, but Rocco Baldelli has had the group out of whack at times.

One of the easiest things to complain about regarding a manager is their bullpen usage. There was always going to be opportunity for that this season, given the relative uncertainty of the group, and Baldelli was always going to need time to let arms filter into their spots. Only a couple of weeks into the season, there’s no reason for any severe hand-wringing, but a couple of observations opportunities have presented themselves.
 
Jhoan Duran is maybe the most exciting arm in Minnesota Twins pitching history. He’s certainly not going to be the best, but the velocity is unmatched and may forever be. It’s something this organization had never seen before and also a great outcome from the trade that sent Eduardo Escobar to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Early returns have suggested he can be an impact thrower at the back end of the Twins bullpen. He may even have taken over the closer role for the departed Rogers by the end of the season.

But should he be a multi-inning reliever?
 
That’s questionable, and it’s something worth keeping an eye on. Working two innings against the Red Sox, there was a notable dip in Duran’s velocity when he came back out. It’s not as though he wasn’t still throwing hard, but the consistency in which triple-digits were reached wasn’t maintained. Some arms are more impacted by a total number of pitches, while others could be deterred more by coming off the bench for a second inning. Whatever Duran’s role going forward is, the goal will be to get the best and most effective version of him.

Only two lefties are available in Minnesota’s bullpen as it’s currently constructed, and Caleb Thielbar is probably the better of them. Not only is he a great story, but the 3.00 ERA and 10.6 K/9 over the past two seasons have been suggestive of a great arm. Even with that production, he’s still best suited in ideal spots, and that’s why Baldelli’s decision to go with him in the 8th inning of a one-run game against two righties against Boston was odd.
 
Minnesota’s offense was non-existent on Easter Sunday, but trailing by just one looking to get their final at-bats, Thielbar was tasked with protecting a lead. He came in against Kike Hernandez and was also set to face Xander Bogaerts. Both of them are solid hitting right-handers, and they did predictable damage. Giving up four runs generating just a single out, Thielbar was ineffective in a suboptimal situation.
 
That outing leaves us to question what the back-end of the bullpen will look like going forward and how Baldelli will choose spots. Tyler Duffey was given the first save opportunity and blew it, but he’s a good arm even with declined velocity. Jorge Alcala isn’t going to factor in for some time, and Emilio Pagan could step into those high-leverage shoes. Joe Smith is a tested veteran who has previously performed well on good teams, and the aforementioned Duran will always be in the mix.

It seems that this front office is intent on avoiding paydays for relievers, but the pen they have constructed is a solid one. Give Baldelli some time to decide how he and Wes Johnson will run these arms out, and I think there’s an opportunity for it to be one of baseball’s better units.

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[GKuehl]

After watching Duffey blow another game, I’m hard pressed to label Duffey a “good arm.” I wouldn’t mind if his “good arm” were pitching for another team in the near future. 

[USAFChief]

I don't agree that they've constructed a solid pen. 

 

I do agree Duran is better used in 1 inning appearances, available for more games in more effective short stints.

[dgdynasty]

hmm.. i don't think any team would trade their bullpen for ours. in fact, i think every team would happily take facing our bullpen compared to any other one

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

There was internal confidence in this bullpen

Internal, meaning inside the Twins front office?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Also, I guess I was looking forward to Alex Meyer and José Berríos off the top of my head but yeah the pitching pipeline has been extremely thin the past 10 or 5 years if that’s what you mean by most exciting in history. 

[ashbury]

Even the best bullpen gives up some runs.  But now and then, elite arms do throw clean innings, i.e. start the inning, 3 batters faced, no runners. Put runners on, and over the long haul you won't dance out of trouble often enough.

Here's my count of relevant innings so far in 2022 (no credit for partial innings):

Duran: 6 chances, 2 clean innings

Smith: 2 chances, 0 clean innings

Thielbar: 4 chances, 0 clean innings

Coulomb: 2 chances, 0 clean innings

Duffey: 3 chances, 0 clean innings

Pagan: 3 chances, 2 clean innings

Romero: 3 chances, 0 clean innings

Jax: 3 chances, 0 clean innings

It's late, this was a very quick count and I could be missing a few.  Individually, it's all Small Sample Size.  Taken as a group, this bullpen is hittable, or else they walk batters.  Two guys, Duran and Pagan, have so far shown that they can take charge in the late innings.  Smith, maybe, but he's been given partial innings in the cases not mentioned that were clean.

Again, I'm looking at baserunners, not actual runs scored, because when you put runners on there will be variability.  It's the ability to keep the runners off that tracks, not the ability to somehow magically scatter those runners.

Rocco doesn't have the horses, not at this time.  It doesn't matter how you deploy your bullpen arms, when there are only two.  If things change for the better, later on, that's the time I'll look at how he deploys the resources.

 

 

[Mark G]

46 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Even the best bullpen gives up some runs.  But now and then, elite arms do throw clean innings, i.e. start the inning, 3 batters faced, no runners. Put runners on, and over the long haul you won't dance out of trouble often enough.

Here's my count of relevant innings so far in 2022 (no credit for partial innings):

Duran: 6 chances, 2 clean innings

Smith: 2 chances, 0 clean innings

Thielbar: 4 chances, 0 clean innings

Coulomb: 2 chances, 0 clean innings

Duffey: 3 chances, 0 clean innings

Pagan: 3 chances, 2 clean innings

Romero: 3 chances, 0 clean innings

Jax: 3 chances, 0 clean innings

This was a very quick count and I could be missing a few.  Individually, it's all Small Sample Size.  Taken as a group, this bullpen is hittable, or else they walk batters.  Two guys, Duran and Pagan, have so far shown that they can take charge in the late innings.  Smith, maybe, but he's been given partial innings in the cases not mentioned that were clean.

Rocco doesn't have the horses.  It doesn't matter how you deploy your arms, when there are only two.

 

 

I agree completely; it would be nice to have a 1,2,3 inning at least once in a while.  Another quick count on my part:  so far, through 11 games, the starters have only pitched 50 innings, with the pen pitching just under half.  To be fair, that includes Gray's short start the other day, but it is still worrysome that only one start has gone over 5 innings.  This pen may have promise in areas, but is not good enough to pitch almost half the innings this season.  And with Rocco's history of short starts and using the pen multiple times a game, that may very well turn out to be the case.  One stat that backs this up:  going back to 2020, we have played 233 games through tonight, and not one complete game.  We have used the pen every single game going back at least that far, and who knows how much further.  When plan A is a short start and 2, 3, or even 4 relievers a game you better have a damn good pen, and I question if this pen is that good.  It is time to trust the starters to take you deeper instead of 4 or 5 pitchers a game having to be on to win.  

[mnfireman]

So, 2022 being what it is, here are the Twins starters AL stats and ranks (forgive the old school stats, they still mean something to me): ERA - 3.06 (4), IP - 50 (5), Hits Allowed - 38 (5 fewest, and they have more IP than the 4 teams above them), HR allowed - 6 (T7), BB allowed - 14 (4th fewest), SO - 42 (T10, could be better), WHIP - 1.04 (2), BA Against - .204 (3), Pitches per Inning - 15.16 (1), K/9 - 7.56 (8, middle of pack), BB/9 - 2.52 (3), K/BB - 3.00 (4).

And here are the BP stats and ranks: ERA - 5.28 (14), IP - 46 (10), Hits allowed - 49 (Tie for second most), HR allowed - 9 (3rd most), BB allowed - 26 (2nd most), SO - 47 (9), WHIP - 1.63 (15), BA Against - .271 (15), Pitches per Inning - 17.35 (11), K/9 - 9.20 (9), BB/9 - 5.09 (15), K/BB - 1.81 (15).

Obviously the starting pitching is better than hoped for (we'll see how it continues as the season progresses) and the BP is amongst the worst in the AL. Hopefully the team will figure it out and get the right players slotted into the right spots and the pitching will be able to help carry the team. The offense on the other hand.....

 

[Linus]

You can’t start every season saying we’ll figure out the bullpen over time. Games in April and may count. People point out that the bullpen was good last year in the second half. Who cares?  They were out of it by then. SSS but my fear is that things are looking eerily similar to the beginning of last year. 

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, mnfireman said:

So, 2022 being what it is, here are the Twins starters AL stats and ranks (forgive the old school stats, they still mean something to me): ERA - 3.06 (4), IP - 50 (5), Hits Allowed - 38 (5 fewest, and they have more IP than the 4 teams above them), HR allowed - 6 (T7), BB allowed - 14 (4th fewest), SO - 42 (T10, could be better), WHIP - 1.04 (2), BA Against - .204 (3), Pitches per Inning - 15.16 (1), K/9 - 7.56 (8, middle of pack), BB/9 - 2.52 (3), K/BB - 3.00 (4).

And here are the BP stats and ranks: ERA - 5.28 (14), IP - 46 (10), Hits allowed - 49 (Tie for second most), HR allowed - 9 (3rd most), BB allowed - 26 (2nd most), SO - 47 (9), WHIP - 1.63 (15), BA Against - .271 (15), Pitches per Inning - 17.35 (11), K/9 - 9.20 (9), BB/9 - 5.09 (15), K/BB - 1.81 (15).

Obviously the starting pitching is better than hoped for (we'll see how it continues as the season progresses) and the BP is amongst the worst in the AL. Hopefully the team will figure it out and get the right players slotted into the right spots and the pitching will be able to help carry the team. The offense on the other hand.....

 

If the Twins are not bombing home runs all over the place, Rocco pretty much fails as a manager, IMO. for full disclosure I didn't see the game last night, but my goodness Archer is a 33 year old man with over 1200 MLB innings and Rocco doesn't have the confidence in him to pitch to a rookie hitting around .150? If that is the kind of confidence you have in your starter you might as well tell him sorry Chris, but your now a bullpen guy because unless if you are absolutely perfect after the third inning I am going to pull you from the game. 

[wsnydes]

I think there's something to the notion that Rocco will need time to figure out how to use his bullpen pieces, but that shouldn't be the case with a guy like Duffey, who isn't a new piece.  And as @ashbury pointed out, a clean inning is a unicorn for this pen.  That trend alone doesn't give me many warm fuzzies as the season wears on, and especially as injuries start to take their inevitable toll.

[Whitey333]

This boy has a chance to be one of the best???  Are you kidding? There's some decent pieces but mediocre at best.  And  with Baldelli not knowing who to send out in certain situations is further indication he doesn't have a clue.

[rv78]

Rocco is going to use a veteran who is bad in a high leverage situation over a young arm that is good time after time. He showed it last year with Alex Colome to the point it single handedly probably cost the Twins the season. This year he is doing it with Tyler Dudfey. I know spring training was short. I know Rogers got traded at the start of the season but Rocco doesn't have a feel for the game. Last nights game is a very good example. Joe Smith whos' been very good so far threw 2 pitches and gets pulled for Dudfey who's been terrible. Makes no sense. Also, I always hear the praise of Wes Johnson and how he can get the most out of these pitchers that were once stars and need to turn themselves around after the Twins sign them when no one else wants them. Why not sign good pitchers to start with and have Wes make them even better instead of signing crap pitchers and have Wes try to make them average?

[mikelink45]

7 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Internal, meaning inside the Twins front office?

Maybe it the BP and they voted Rogers off the island

[mikelink45]

The big sticks are not here yet - on ESPN the Twins batting ranks 27 out of 30 in OPS we are 23.  We need pitchers holding the other team down - right not Thielbar and Duffey, our two vets, are doing the worst.  SP going 7 would change the dynamics of the game. We rank 20 overall - SP and RP - on the ESPN chart.  

"The bullpen ERA ranks 22nd in the majors, and the ERA actually undersells how much the Twins have struggled because their relievers have allowed an astonishing 60 percent of inherited runners to score."  The Athletic  And that was last year!

Someday someone on this site will tell me who Wes Johnson has reclaimed?  I keep hearing about his magic but I am afraid my eyes must be clouded over.  

[RJA]

I do believe the Twins have a great group of young pitchers in the minors, but the bullpen reflects their unwillingness to spend any money on significant free agents.  If you are planning to trade Rogers (your best bullpen arm by a substantial margin) if the opportunity presents itself, you might want to add one significant free agent in the bullpen.  The worst case scenario is that you end up with two quality arms and the worst case scenario is that you still have one top flight reliever to lead the pen.  Plus, Rocco is not the world's best bullpen manager.  His choices seem really odd at times.  Maybe Duffy does steady the ship later in the season, but what good does that do if the team digs itself into a hole early in the season like last year?   

[Blyleven2011]

The FO and Rocco  follow a plan ,

Plain and simple  and won't deviate from it ,,,  they are not the wiz kids  plain and simple ...  

I knew the lead was going to change with duffey coming in and would allow at least 1 homer , how many homers has duffey allowed already this season ,,,  his command and velocity is down and they stick to there plan with one of the worst arm in the BP  right now  , 

They won't deviate  from the plan , plain and simple ....

It was a winnable game and the plan failed again , 

Plain and simple 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If the Twins are not bombing home runs all over the place, Rocco pretty much fails as a manager, IMO. for full disclosure I didn't see the game last night, but my goodness Archer is a 33 year old man with over 1200 MLB innings and Rocco doesn't have the confidence in him to pitch to a rookie hitting around .150? If that is the kind of confidence you have in your starter you might as well tell him sorry Chris, but your now a bullpen guy because unless if you are absolutely perfect after the third inning I am going to pull you from the game. 

Archer was clearly toast when Rocco pulled him. He'd given up 2 singles and back to back walks when he was pulled. He may have actually been slow in pulling Archer because he clearly ran out of gas.

[chpettit19]

The most shocking thing to me to start the year is that they haven't tried any piggy-backing at all really. Yes, Winder went 5.1 innings after Gray left with an injury, and Rodriguez went 4 against the Dodgers, but neither of those appeared to be the actual plan. I don't get the point of having one of your best prospect arms sitting in the pen never being used instead of putting him in the AAA rotation and calling up someone like Smeltzer for that long relief role if it's just going to be the typical "wait til a starter gets hurt or blows up" usage plan. Put Winder in St Paul and let him develop.

I don't see how this pen is going to survive with throwing individual inning guys out there for 4 or 5 innings every night. They don't have the arms for that. I had a reasonable amount of hope they could have a solid staff by being creative with their usage of arms early when they can carry 16 guys, but they've just done things business as usual and the team definitely can't survive when they go down to 13 arms.

I fully expect the starters to start getting more leash to go longer into games as we get into May and the staff size shrinks, but, as others have said, they seem to be sacrificing games early in the name of figuring out who they'll keep when the staff goes down to 13. Maybe when it shrinks they'll start being more creative or define roles better, but I'm not impressed with the strategy at all to this point. And I've been a rather big defender of the FO and Rocco to an extent. Thielbar is cooked and Duffey is looking like it, too. Losing Alcala after trading Rogers may be the undoing of the season since the pen was so thin to start. It sure isn't looking good so far.

[Karbo]

I just don't see Rocco ever getting any better at managing a bullpen. We have seen him stumble along through the last few seasons being bailed out by the bomba squad a couple of years, but without them we have a pretty bad team. If we get a lead we better keep adding on because Rocco will find a way to mess it up with the bullpen usage. Of course, it would help a whole lot if he had a few more guys down there that were dependable, but that too is his job to figure out who can fit in the right places.

[Dman]

I think I am with Ashbury on this for the most part.  To start the season Rocco hasn't had a ton of consistency from his pen arms.  In many ways Baseball is a confidence game.  When players are doing their jobs and playing well they seem to have more belief that their outcomes will be positive.  When in a slump confidence in what they are doing wains and they seem more prone to stay in a slump until extra coaching and or practice get them back on track.  

That being said Managers\coaches have to have confidence in their players and give confidence to their players. I think Rocco does a really good job in that regard.  We have heard Cruz talk about the positive atmosphere in the club house and Buxton wanting to stay a Twin (look at all the adversity he faced and always had Rocco's support).  Correa and Buxton were just talking about the "positive" vibes in the clubhouse.  So you know that is important to players.  Knowing your manager has your back allows you to stay focused and on track IMO.

If I were the manager and I have a bunch of unknowns in the pen am I going to lean on less experienced guys or more experienced guys?  For me I am going to put my trust in the guys that have been there and done it before. Guys like Duffey and Theilbar have good track records.  Does that mean they are going to be successful every time they go out there no it doesn't.

I feel the angst everyone else does about Duffey and Thielbar being Colome killers.  They collectively sunk several promising games this season. Possibly three games lost by their collective failures.  Still it is too early to throw them in the trash heap.  Rocco still has to have confidence they can do the job and needs to give them the confidence they need to be successful again.  Right now it is a bit of a waiting game IMO.

Could both players be washed up and not going to get back on track or better until it is too late.  That is one possibility.  Odds are though it is early and they just need to settle into what works and what doesn't right now.  The manager has to believe every player is going to pull their weight and be able to do their job.  While he can create matchups to help them be more successful in the end the players have to perform and the manager has to keep his players in a good state of mind to create as much consistency as possible.  I think Rocco does a decent job of that.

[Twinsrule1991]

10 hours ago, GKuehl said:

After watching Duffey blow another game, I’m hard pressed to label Duffey a “good arm.” I wouldn’t mind if his “good arm” were pitching for another team in the near future. 

Genius ?

[TwinsDr2021]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Archer was clearly toast when Rocco pulled him. He'd given up 2 singles and back to back walks when he was pulled. He may have actually been slow in pulling Archer because he clearly ran out of gas.

Shouldn't they have seen that in 4th? and if he is going to be gassed at less than 75 pitches, is the starting rotation really the place for him?

[GNess]

Not adding more (enough) veteran arms to the BP in the off season despite its inherent risks was a FO mistake from the early season results. The Twins lack dependable pieces they need. Not sure what the FO plan was, but right now things aren't on track to put it mildly. 

 

 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Shouldn't they have seen that in 4th? and if he is going to be gassed at less than 75 pitches, is the starting rotation really the place for him?

I don't know what the pitch by pitch data was telling them after the 4th, but it's quite possible they should've noticed. Hard to say for sure. The Dodgers took Kershaw out of a perfect game after 80 pitches, is the starting rotation really the place for him if he can't go more than 80 pitches? Short spring training has every team being very cautious with their starters. If he's getting gassed after 70 pitches in the middle of May there's a cause for concern, but he was a late signing in an already shortened spring training so I don't think there's much cause for concern right now.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know what the pitch by pitch data was telling them after the 4th, but it's quite possible they should've noticed. Hard to say for sure. The Dodgers took Kershaw out of a perfect game after 80 pitches, is the starting rotation really the place for him if he can't go more than 80 pitches? Short spring training has every team being very cautious with their starters. If he's getting gassed after 70 pitches in the middle of May there's a cause for concern, but he was a late signing in an already shortened spring training so I don't think there's much cause for concern right now.

Concur on all points, including Rocco being a hitter or two late removing Archer.

 

Personally I've been very encouraged by Archer's starts. He needs to develop durability and stamina, but he really should be finishing up spring training.  Hopefully that stamina comes, the pitch quality is impressive, IYAM.

[chpettit19]

Just now, USAFChief said:

Concur on all points, including Rocco being a hitter or two late removing Archer.

 

Personally I've been very encouraged by Archer's starts. He needs to develop durability and stamina, but he really should be finishing up spring training.  Hopefully that stamina comes, the pitch quality is impressive, IYAM.

I've been pleasantly surprised to see him sitting 94ish in his starts with a few at the 95 or 96 point. That's old Archer type velo and he was a very nice pitcher when he was throwing like that before. Agreed it's all about durability and stamina now. He seems to have his stuff back so we'll see if he can stretch out and start getting through 5 or 6 quality innings over the next handful of starts.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know what the pitch by pitch data was telling them after the 4th, but it's quite possible they should've noticed. Hard to say for sure. The Dodgers took Kershaw out of a perfect game after 80 pitches, is the starting rotation really the place for him if he can't go more than 80 pitches? Short spring training has every team being very cautious with their starters. If he's getting gassed after 70 pitches in the middle of May there's a cause for concern, but he was a late signing in an already shortened spring training so I don't think there's much cause for concern right now.

Kershaw was perfect though 7, quite a bit different than Archer gassed after 4 and high sixties in pitches.

Fried 7 -93

Buehler 5 - 79

Bumgarner 5 - 83

Josiah gray (who is this guy) - 5.1 - 87

Cobb - terrible in the 5 around 50 pitches

Megill - 6 -87

Cole Terrible, Det bullpen game

Wainwrigth 5.2 - 92

Luzardo - 4.1 - 88

Kikuchi -5 91

Eovaldi - 4.1 -95

Brubaker - 5 - 94

Burnes - 7 - 107

Rays/Cubs bullpen and terrible start

Sandoval - 4- 85

Valdez - 4.1 - 80

Gibson - 6- 90

Freeland - 5 - 87

Scherzer - 7-102, Web 3.2 -75

Ellis 4.1 -62 zero runs (Hey Baltimore has got the idea)

Irvin - 5 - 95

Sanmartin - 5.1 - 86

Musgrove - 6.1 -94

Gray 5 - 77 (4 runs),

Ray 6 - 85

That is the starters from yesterday and Twins fan are still using short spring training and cold weather, its gross!

 

 

 

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I just don't see Rocco ever getting any better at managing a bullpen. We have seen him stumble along through the last few seasons being bailed out by the bomba squad a couple of years, but without them we have a pretty bad team. If we get a lead we better keep adding on because Rocco will find a way to mess it up with the bullpen usage. Of course, it would help a whole lot if he had a few more guys down there that were dependable, but that too is his job to figure out who can fit in the right places.

Doesn't he have pitching coaches and an assistant pitching coach and a bullpen coach and a bench coach and an assistant bench coach and two bullpen catchers and an assistant coach (I don't know who he assists and a quality control coach and a "major league coach (what does he do?)?  An yet we cannot figure out how to use the pitchers?  Or set a lineup without Kepler batting fourth? Counting Rocco they have 17 coaches for 28 men?  Why not hire 11 more so no one has to sit alone?