CJ Cron vs. Miguel Sanó: Did the Twins Swing and Miss?

[Cody Christie]

In 2019, the Twins had CJ Cron and Miguel Sanó on the same roster and a decision needed to be made. Minnesota extended Sanó and let Cron walk, but hindsight might point to that being a poor decision. 

 

The 2019 season was one of the most memorable Twins seasons in recent memory. After nearly a decade of irrelevancy, Minnesota’s Bomba Squad was born, with the team clubbing an MLB-record 307 home runs. Five Twins hitters combined for 30 or more home runs, and the team won over 100 games for only the second time in franchise history. 

During the 2019 season, Miguel Sanó became a first-time member of the 30 home run club. For the season, he hit .247/.346/.576 (.923) with 34 home runs and a 139 OPS+. He set career highs in nearly every offensive category but so did a lot of other Twins players. MLB’s baseballs from that season were flying out of parks at tremendous rates, so many players accumulated hollow stats that season before the baseballs returned to normal. Following the season, the Twins signed Sanó to a three-year, $30 million contract that would keep him in Minnesota through the 2022 season. 

Since signing his extension, Sanó has frustrated fans with his record-breaking strikeout totals and offensive inconsistencies. In 197 games, he has batted .213/.302/.459 (.761) with a 109 OPS+ and 283 strikeouts. His slow start to the 2022 season was also concerning, but fans have seen his streakiness in the past. It’s also very early into the 2022 campaign, and all of Minnesota’s hitters have struggled so far. 

CJ Cron was another member of that Bomba Squad roster, but he fell just shy of the 30 home run plateau. In 125 games, he hit .253/.311/.496 (.780) with 25 home runs and a 104 OPS+. It was disappointing to see Cron post an OPS+ that was eight points below his career mark in a heightened offensive environment. He missed time during the season with a thumb injury, and there were concerns that the injury could linger into the 2020 campaign. Minnesota non-tendered him during the offseason, and he hit the free-agent market. 

Since leaving the Twins, Cron has provided tremendous value when he has been on the field. A knee injury limited him to 13 games in 2020, but he posted an .894 OPS with seven extra-base hits. Cron headed to Colorado in 2021 and posted one of the best seasons of his career. In 142 games, he hit .281/.375/.530 (.905) with 31 doubles and 28 home runs. Over the last three seasons, FanGraphs ranks Cron as the 13th most valuable first baseman. Sanó is 25th on the list and ranks only ahead of three players with a minimum of 600 plate appearances. 

Cron’s overall value comes from how much better defensively he is at first base compared to Sanó. According to SABR’s Defensive Index, Cron posted a 1.2 SDI last season, which ranked seventh in the National League. Only one AL first baseman, Bobby Dalbec, posted a lower mark than Sanó’s -5.6 SDI. Cron was also worth five more outs above average than Sanó during the 2021 season. Overall, Cron might not be elite defensively, but he is a step up compared to Sanó. 

Many teams will look at the Cron versus Sanó situation with the same lens as the Twins. Sanó was multiple years younger and coming off a season where he had a 139 OPS+. That same winter, the Twins added Josh Donaldson to play third base, which pushed Sanó over to first. Cron was a solid player during his time in Minnesota, but he never fit into the team’s long-term plans. Now, that might look like the team took a swing and a miss.

Do you think the Twins made the wrong choice at first base? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[USNMCPO]

Probably the only way the Twins could make this call. Hindsight is so much clearer. 

[Mike Sixel]

Omg. This can't be serious. Wow. Just. Wow 

[baul0010]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Omg. This can't be serious. Wow. Just. Wow 

 Taking a look at a guy having a good start to the season 3 years after the fact....Not sure how this helps us.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, baul0010 said:

 Taking a look at a guy having a good start to the season 3 years after the fact....Not sure how this helps us.

Desperation for topics? I have no idea

[PatPfund]

Worth a look back, but I just don't know how you wouldn't sign Sano after 2019 when he looked like he'd figured it out under Cruz's tutelage. (And Cron had an injury plagued year.) Sano's $10 million isn't over the top for pay; the frustrating part is he still may or may not be on the verge of figuring it out (three years after we thought he had).

[Brandon27]

I think Minnesota trading deadline deal should be a firstbase men then moving Sano to everyday DH 

[Chachi]

We don't talk about Sano.

[Rosterman]

We just expect Sano to break out. Call it the David Ortiz-syndrome. We don't want him to go away and become a mainstay somewhere else. So we gamble that he will be more than he has shown to be.

 

.243 average and 35 homers a season (hopefully more with men on base). But a slight dip in eitehr of those numbers, and we basically can run-the-slush-pile each season for a 1B or DH at this point. 

 

Sano had value, at times, when he played a decent third base. 

 

But, in hindsight, we always seem to be asking "what about Sano." Should we get a real third baseman, biut then where do we play Sano instead of our current 1B or DH. Do we make him a fulltime DH, but then we go and get others who need to play that spot. 

 

Like Ortiz, who the Twins didn't feel was worthy of going to the "higehr arbitration" salary, the Twins will make a hard decision on paying him for 2023, or watch him, in all liklihood, go and sign somewhere else on the cheap, and cross out fingers that he doesn't produce bigtime. 

 

Of course, if he starts a tear, I would entertain any and every offer possible mid-season at this point in time, especially if Kirilloff is back and playing.

[wsnydes]

I'm not sure how this team would come to a different conclusion than they did at the time.  There's no way they keep Cron over Sano after the season Sano had in 2019.  Cron certainly had a good year, but Sano's was better by a fair margin.

[LastOnePicked]

I seem to recall that Cron's thumb was injured at the end of his year with us, and the injury seemed pretty bad at the time. I liked Cron, and I'm glad he's had a resurgence, but I can't really fault the choice of Sano over Cron. Sano seemed on the verge of stardom.

All that said, the bad luck and the missed opportunities are starting to add up again.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Brandon27 said:

I think Minnesota trading deadline deal should be a firstbase men then moving Sano to everyday DH 

I would much prefer that Sano plays well enough to be traded and they move Kirilloff to 1B for the majority of games.

[old nurse]

Away from Coors last year Cron had a .730 OPS Just one small piece of homework…..

[se7799]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

We just expect Sano to break out. Call it the David Ortiz-syndrome. We don't want him to go away and become a mainstay somewhere else. So we gamble that he will be more than he has shown to be.

 

.243 average and 35 homers a season (hopefully more with men on base). But a slight dip in eitehr of those numbers, and we basically can run-the-slush-pile each season for a 1B or DH at this point. 

 

Sano had value, at times, when he played a decent third base. 

 

But, in hindsight, we always seem to be asking "what about Sano." Should we get a real third baseman, biut then where do we play Sano instead of our current 1B or DH. Do we make him a fulltime DH, but then we go and get others who need to play that spot. 

 

Like Ortiz, who the Twins didn't feel was worthy of going to the "higehr arbitration" salary, the Twins will make a hard decision on paying him for 2023, or watch him, in all liklihood, go and sign somewhere else on the cheap, and cross out fingers that he doesn't produce bigtime. 

 

Of course, if he starts a tear, I would entertain any and every offer possible mid-season at this point in time, especially if Kirilloff is back and playing.

I think most of us would take a .243 avg with 35 homeruns from even our top players...if you believe a dip in those numbers to be a slush pile...well our team would be amazing. 

[Tibs]

There is just no way the Twins would have come to a different conclusion. Hindsight is pointless in this situation.

That 2021 season you are touting as "one of the best seasons of his career" for Cron, he put up a 131 OPS+. Very good, still worse than the 139 OPS+ Miguel Sano put up in his 2019 season when they were on the same team.

A month ago, you wrote an article about the top 5 prospects in Twins history (you rank Miguel Sano #3). In the article, you state his top 100 peak was the #4 prospect in baseball, he was included on top 100 lists for five consecutive seasons, and multiple lists included him as a top-15 prospect for consecutive seasons. One of the best prospects in organization history hits 34 dingers in 105 games while putting up a 139 OPS+ in his age 26 season vs a 29 year old waiver claim who hit 25 home runs and had a 104 OPS+ in 125 games.

To even suggest the Twins should have made a different decision is preposterous. Just imagine what the reaction would have been to that.

[Kipp35]

The Twins were making up for Tom Kelly stating that David Ortiz "was never going to amount to anything in baseball"; while letting him [Ortiz] walk. Last I checked Ortiz is in the HOF and the Twins still honor and listen to Tom Kelly every spring. Billy Gardner and Ray Miller put together a club that worked, and Kelly led a 85-77 team that got hot into the World Series. 85-77 wouldn't get you into the post season anymore. Last season Oakland finished 86-76, finished third in the West.

So, they went with the big guy with upside. Fans that watched Cron could have said which was going to be more consistent, but no doubt who had possibly better upside. Just no one on the Twins could harness his talent.

[jmlease1]

Did the Tampa Bay Rays make the wrong decision in not keeping CJ Cron?

• 2019 Ji-Man Choi 120 OPS+, 2.1 bWAR
• 2020 Ji-Man Choi 108 OPS+, 0.3 bWAR
• 2021 Yandy Diaz 110 OPS+, 1.6 bWAR
• 2019 Cron 104 OPS+, 1.2 bWAR
• 2020 Cron 141 OPS+, 0.3 bWAR
• 2021 Cron 131 OPS+, 3.4 bWAR

 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Away from Coors last year Cron had a .730 OPS Just one small piece of homework…..

CJ is the same player he always has been.  Coors elevates some players.  Good for him, and I hope the Rockies fans are enjoying the experience. 

It would be interesting to find out what Sano would do in a couple of years in Colorado also. Looking at his career splits, he has never come to bat there.  Looks like we don't find out this year either - the come to Minnesota for 3 games in June.

[Squirrel]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Desperation for topics? I have no idea

Take a hindsight topic and stir it up to get responses ... it's a formula for some

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

 

It would be interesting to find out what Sano would do in a couple of years in Colorado also. Looking at his career splits, he has never come to bat there.  Looks like we don't find out this year either - the come to Minnesota for 3 games in June.

He’d probably win a batting title like Moreau and Cuddyer. ?

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Take a hindsight topic and stir it up to get responses ... it's a formula for some

Well, we all knew we should have kept Liam Hendriks. 

[Monkeypaws]

Swing and miss is Matt Lecroy over David Ortiz.

Sano over Cron is more like a foul ball.

[se7799]

3 hours ago, Kipp35 said:

The Twins were making up for Tom Kelly stating that David Ortiz "was never going to amount to anything in baseball"; while letting him [Ortiz] walk. Last I checked Ortiz is in the HOF and the Twins still honor and listen to Tom Kelly every spring. Billy Gardner and Ray Miller put together a club that worked, and Kelly led a 85-77 team that got hot into the World Series. 85-77 wouldn't get you into the post season anymore. Last season Oakland finished 86-76, finished third in the West.

So, they went with the big guy with upside. Fans that watched Cron could have said which was going to be more consistent, but no doubt who had possibly better upside. Just no one on the Twins could harness his talent.

Were and when have you seen the Twins honor and listen to Tom Kelly at spring training?  Last I seen him there was 5 years ago.  I'm guessing you are thinking close to 8+ years ago.

[tony&rodney]

Cron has had a nice little career thus far but he is not  good with a glove. Sano was the obvious choice but his glove is a rock too. Sano still has a chance to be decent DH and hopefully Kirilloff comes back and plays first base. Rocco just follows orders and we may see Sano at 1B all season. We can wish Cron well, but I don't miss him.

[annismark]

You could look at Arraez and Schoop and have the same type of discussion (if you had nothing better to do)

[gunnarthor]

Man, the anti-Sano **** on TD is getting a bit toxic. Let's dial it back a bit, ok?

[dgdynasty]

I have run out of fingers and toes to count the mistakes our FO has made over the years. I try to remain optimistic, however, and don't reflect on the past. As much as I feel this we aren't going to be "competitive" this year, progression should be the focus.

[Mark G]

Someone please correct me if I am wrong here, but Sano played 3rd in 2019 with Cron at 1st.  It was never a question of either/or unless it was about the money and they weren't willing to pay both.  Which is somewhat ironic, seeing they turned around and spent what they did on Donaldson.  So, in a way, by moving Sano to 1st, cutting loose Cron, and signing Donaldson, wasn't it more a case of choosing between Cron and Donaldson?  In hindsight, that is.    

[Whitey333]

Excellent take on Sano at third and Crohn at first and then signing Donaldson.  I agree with that assesment

[Twodogs]

17 hours ago, old nurse said:

Away from Coors last year Cron had a .730 OPS Just one small piece of homework…..

I also wonder if Sano's numbers look different if he played 81 games at Coors field?