40-man Roster Casualties?

[stringer bell]

The Twins have a full 40-man roster at present and there appear to be some players in St. Paul and perhaps Wichita who could help this club. Also, they only have two catchers on their 40-man roster, so an injury to one of the catchers (even if the player doesn't go on the Injured List) would necessitate a 40-man move. 

First, let me run down the players who could be reasonably considered for promotion: Mark Contreras, Jake Cave, Jermaine Palacios, Curtis Terry, Chance Cisco or Jose Godoy, Devin Smeltzer, Juan Minaya and probably a half dozen other pitchers and Austin Martin in Wichita (although he is off to a slow start). Others may play themselves into consideration as the year rolls along.

With 24 pitchers on the 40-man roster, it would figure that a pitcher or two could be taken off the 40-man roster. Candidate #1 IMHO is Chris Vallimont. He's 25 years old, only reached AA and hasn't been effective at that level. #2 is Cody Stashak, who was just activated and knocked around by the Red Sox yesterday. To me, he doesn't look like the same pitcher who debuted in 2019. He doesn't have above-average velocity and has had injury issues. #3 is Jhon Romero, who the Twins claimed from the Nationals. He's 27 and has worked a grand total of 7 major league innings. For the Twins, he has allowed six hits in three innings. #4 is Drew Strotman, being converted to relief at St. Paul. He's 25, hasn't made his MLB debut and has had control issues. 

With teams cutting back to 13 pitchers, I would think there would be a decent chance that none of these guys would be claimed. I don't advocate a DFA for all of them, but if the Twins want to upgrade their active roster, they will need to clear space on the 40-man.

[wsnydes]

With so many pitchers on the 40-man, a bit of a "cleansing" should be coming soon.  I think the first 3 you mentioned make a lot of sense with Romero being the likely first domino to fall.  I think Strotman will get some time to adjust to the bullpen role, especially considering the likely need for bullpen arms as the season progresses.

[Major League Ready]

Have to agree none of the players mentioned would likely be claimed with the possible exception of Strotman.  It just does not seem like a problem short-term.  Long-term, we probably lose Correa / Sanchez / Sano / Duffey and either Arraez or Urshela before next season.  I could even see them both being gone if Martin or Steer step up.  Archer / Bundy, and Maeda are also good candidates to be gone.  I would bet 7 of the 9 are gone before next season.

[stringer bell]

16 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

With so many pitchers on the 40-man, a bit of a "cleansing" should be coming soon.  I think the first 3 you mentioned make a lot of sense with Romero being the likely first domino to fall.  I think Strotman will get some time to adjust to the bullpen role, especially considering the likely need for bullpen arms as the season progresses.

Strotman would have to perform. There are a bunch of pitchers at St. Paul with major league experience, but not on the roster. I count 11 and two guys who haven't made it to the bigs, who are pretty promising (Cano and Mason). Prioritizing by ability to help right now, I think Smeltzer, Minaya, and Cano are clearly ahead of Strotman and perhaps more. I've never seen Strotman pitch, even on TV, but I understand he has good velo and is coming back from TJ. 

It may be that the club is waiting for May 1, but I do think they need to get their best options for the 'pen on the roster ASAP.

[wsnydes]

3 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Strotman would have to perform. There are a bunch of pitchers at St. Paul with major league experience, but not on the roster. I count 11 and two guys who haven't made it to the bigs, who are pretty promising (Cano and Mason). Prioritizing by ability to help right now, I think Smeltzer, Minaya, and Cano are clearly ahead of Strotman and perhaps more. I've never seen Strotman pitch, even on TV, but I understand he has good velo and is coming back from TJ. 

It may be that the club is waiting for May 1, but I do think they need to get their best options for the 'pen on the roster ASAP.

That's fair, but I think him coming back from TJ also probably saves him.  I'm also of the opinion that they're gearing up for a run next year more than this year.  I wouldn't think Strotman would clear waivers whereas the other guys you mentioned in the OP could and even if they did, wouldn't hurt hte organization much.

[Blyleven2011]

6 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

 

It may be that the club is waiting for May 1, but I do think they need to get their best options for the 'pen on the roster ASAP>

You would have thought they would have put their best options on the opening day roster  ... there was some pitchers that performed  well  in spring training but because they were not on 40 man roster were sent to AAA

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

You would have thought they would have put their best options on the opening day roster  ... there was some pitchers that performed  well  in spring training but because they were not on 40 man roster were sent to AAA

Teams always prioritize depth for the opening day roster. Every team has to deal with losing pitchers to injury.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

That's fair, but I think him coming back from TJ also probably saves him.  I'm also of the opinion that they're gearing up for a run next year more than this year.  I wouldn't think Strotman would clear waivers whereas the other guys you mentioned in the OP could and even if they did, wouldn't hurt hte organization much.

We all know there is a lot of movement in the last few active and 40-man slots. 60-day IL assignments create room and doubtless that will happen to someone on the roster this year. That said, clearing two spots to move players up and down would be helpful, I think. The downside on Minaya and a number of other guys pitching for St. Paul, is they can't be optioned, so if they are on the active roster, they must be designated for assignment if they are to be demoted. I believe a player can be outrighted once, but a second DFA gives them the right to become a free agent. 

[PatPfund]

I agree with most of what you say (especially about it being time to move), though I don't think Strotman should be on the DFA list. Yet. And for better or worse, his rep is enough that I'm sure he'd be claimed where most/all of the others would not. If you need a name to add for Strotman, I'd toss in Caleb Thielbar; love his story, but he looks pretty done.

I'd sure try to get Cotton back (he looked a lot better than Duffey, Thielbar, Jax, and Stashak). I'm fairly shocked Minaya isn't on this team now (far better option than the Mediocre to Dreadful Four in the last set of parentheses). Smeltzer has looked good so far. Contreras seems a more viable option than Garlick. (On defense and with the bat no matter what hand the pitcher is using.)

If the Twins really are going to a 5 man rotation, I'd like to see Winder join Celestino on a non-DFA Green Line train to CHS Field. Both need to play regularly if they are to be of real help this year (and I suspect both will be needed).

[4twinsJA]

I really dislike present system, realize 40 man roster serves a purpose but also keeps deserving players in minors because team does not want to loose a player. For example, Contreras was out hitting Larnach at St.  Paul and superior defensively, but Larnach gets the call because he is on 40 man roster. Larnach has better potential, but at the time Contreras playing better.

[Linus]

Vallimont should be first. He hasn’t performed and is getting older. 

[Dman]

Your list of DFA candidates is spot on. It just seems a little early in the year to give up on Strotman and Vallimont IMO.  Honestly i think they both would get snagged by another team and although I am low on both of them mainly because of their WHIP's.  They both have the ability to K guys as well.  Like the OP said they are getting older and still haven't made it out of the minors but I think you would want to give both one more try before losing them for good. Strotman's delivery looks really good to me but he needs to get better results with his stuff.  I am kind of ready to give up on Vallimont.  The lack of feel for finding the zone is almost comical as he has a 4.33 WHIP in his SSS this year and honestly struggled with walks last year as well. It is the elite K rate though that keeps you hanging on.  Both those guys need to show something this year or they are gone IMO.

Stashak hasn't been good in a while and doesn't have "great" stuff so he might make it through.  Romero is a bit of a wild card guy for me.  He has strike out stuff and can throw strikes but he seems hittable as well.  Just don't know enough about the guy but my feeling is another team might be willing to give him a try.  They are both borderline 28/40 man adds though so I think they would be the first ones to go.  They could be replaced by another waiver claim or the farm IMO.

[chpettit19]

Totally agree there are some arms that could be cut loose, but I'm not seeing any position players I'd be dying to have on the Twins right now. Mark Contreras, Jake Cave, Jermaine Palacios, Curtis Terry, Chance Cisco and Jose Godoy are not guys I'm DFAing anyone for until an injury happens and they need to fill a hole. Now if Martin were in AA hitting .380/.520/.550 I'd be willing to cut loose a Vallimont or Stashak type for sure. But those other position players aren't worth DFAing anyone 2 weeks into the season. Especially with Lewis looking good in his return to action. I'd call him up before any of those other guys and not have to make any 40-man moves.

[Rosterman]

I was just thinking about changes that need to be made, especially with the Saints carrying some 23 pitchers on their roster, and at some point guys have to advance forward in the minors.

 

I would still play out the next dozen days with most of what we have. May 1 is going to be a moment most of us have never seen in our lifetime of atching abseball transactions, as some 60 players will suddenly have to move from the majors to...elsewhere.

 

We can really look at the fluff on the 40-man. Would this be the time to jettison Vallimont? I doubt another team would pick him up. But the Twins would have to make a decision, again, to add him next off-season if they feel it is necessary.

 

Thielbar, Stashak, Romero, Jax all have to be on the bubble. A couple could stay and go back to AAA. But all four could be removed easily (suddenly we would have five free spots). 

 

The Twins will also have to make a decision of Garlick. Do they keep him, or perhaps cycle in Cave (again) or a third catcher sooner rather than later.

 

I hope to see the Twins make a hard decision oin their closer. Looks like Pagan, at the moment, although I wish they would try Duran.

 

Minaya, Smeltzer, Cano are all viable candidates to advance to the 40-man. Or do you wait just a bit longer and create the rotating spot so you can look at Bashlor, , Sanchez, Gonzalez, Gossett, Faria, Ramirez, Megill, Pinto, Jurado, Petricka (wow, that's a lot of guys to use and throw-out). Before you think about Mason, Gore, Strotman or Ian Hamilton (what's up with Ian?). 

 

I'm actually a but shaken right now, thinking there are easily 6-7 guys on the current 40-man that could be easily replaced by others promising more in this still young season.

 

 

 

[ashbury]

Carefully reasoned analysis, Stringer.  At first I thought one or more of the four pitchers you named for DFA might be out of minor league options, making them less likely to be claimed by a bottom-feeder club with room to develop an arm in the minors, but all of them have at least 2 remaining.

While sneaking an arm through waivers while all teams are experiencing a roster crunch is a high possibility, the FO does have to consider the possibility that that player will be lost to them.  I think you ordered them about right, though I might risk Stashak sooner than Vallimont even though the latter has shown nothing to justify the 40-man spot - he's basically Tyler Duffey with a changeup but hasn't put anything together.  Stashak has just never interested me at all.

[Old fox]

The Twins are about 1/2 thru April and the coldest part of the season and if there record is at near 500% or better, then it will be successful start to a good year. I suspect there will be a couple of trades before the trade deadline & that’s fine but with who, position, when, where are very indefinite because the market hasn’t shown availability yet, price or willingness to move. The market availability seems to be weak to meet the needs of the Twins immediately.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, Rosterman said:

I was just thinking about changes that need to be made, especially with the Saints carrying some 23 pitchers on their roster, and at some point guys have to advance forward in the minors.

 

I would still play out the next dozen days with most of what we have. May 1 is going to be a moment most of us have never seen in our lifetime of atching abseball transactions, as some 60 players will suddenly have to move from the majors to...elsewhere.

 

We can really look at the fluff on the 40-man. Would this be the time to jettison Vallimont? I doubt another team would pick him up. But the Twins would have to make a decision, again, to add him next off-season if they feel it is necessary.

 

Thielbar, Stashak, Romero, Jax all have to be on the bubble. A couple could stay and go back to AAA. But all four could be removed easily (suddenly we would have five free spots). 

 

The Twins will also have to make a decision of Garlick. Do they keep him, or perhaps cycle in Cave (again) or a third catcher sooner rather than later.

 

I hope to see the Twins make a hard decision oin their closer. Looks like Pagan, at the moment, although I wish they would try Duran.

 

Minaya, Smeltzer, Cano are all viable candidates to advance to the 40-man. Or do you wait just a bit longer and create the rotating spot so you can look at Bashlor, , Sanchez, Gonzalez, Gossett, Faria, Ramirez, Megill, Pinto, Jurado, Petricka (wow, that's a lot of guys to use and throw-out). Before you think about Mason, Gore, Strotman or Ian Hamilton (what's up with Ian?). 

 

I'm actually a but shaken right now, thinking there are easily 6-7 guys on the current 40-man that could be easily replaced by others promising more in this still young season.

 

 

 

1) A lot of guys in St. Paul will get released. I think May 1 will be a big day for minor league staffs, as well as parent clubs. There just aren’t enough innings for everyone. 
2) I think Thielbar has two years of rope. He’s been successful with his pitch mix and hasn’t lost much, if any, velo. Jax almost made my list, but so many people think he projects to be a solid bullpen arm. Today’s performance had me going from “I’m done with him” to “that’s a great pitch” and back. I think he’ll survive a May 1 cut down perhaps being optioned, but no DFA. 
3) I think Garlick is on the team until they find a better RH corner outfielder. Not sold on him, but he fits what the club needs and his development won’t be hurt by sitting on the bench. 
4) So many guys in St. Paul with big league experience. As I said earlier, pretty soon many of them will have to either be promoted or let go. Does anyone know who has opt-outs?

5) I think the ideal when they are down to 13 pitchers is to have two in St. Paul and two in Minneapolis who can shuttle back and forth. They’ll also need to add a third catcher sometime, but I guess that move wouldn’t be made until the need arises. 

[jorgenswest]

There will be movement at the end of the month. It wonder if it is more likely an opportunity to add talent.

As for assessing performance I hope everyone will ignore the data in a month sample of major or minor league play. 

[PatPfund]

Most of the focus here is on pitchers, because the Twins were so bad at that last year they clung to every asset, then went out and got a lot more (which we probably all agree needed to happen).

But that left the 40-man almost devoid of position players not on the MLB roster other than infielders Lewis and Miranda. Lewis plays middle infield, has only played a couple weeks in the past two years, and needs extended time at SS where the Twins are likely to need a permanent player by next spring. Plus, middle infield is the absolute least of the lineup issues. Miranda is likely the most MLB-ready bat in the system with a good run at AAA, and there is more need there (given struggles with the bats and/or gloves at the corner spots), but I don’t see anything happening until May

The immediate crunch is having only 6 OFs on the 40-man with ALL OF THEM are currently up with the Twins (2 of them hurt), while the team's most gaping holes in the order are in the outfield. All three spots until Buxton returns. (Kirilloff is a total non-entity right now until he is both healthy and hitting. Which might not be this year or ever.) So they can't make a real move to improve the position without 40-man moves,

I'm not terrified of any team claiming anybody I've suggested, because they are either underperforming or older or both. Don't dump for the sake of dumping, but the Twins need some OF options via promotion or trade, and every one would mean a 40-man spot. If it means we lose a declining year of Thielbar or the hope that Vallimont learns how to control his pitches after years of wildness, well so be it.

Larnach should get his extended shot now, and be kept on the 40-man even if he needs to go back down. Celestino needs to play every day and has only had tastes of AAA. By the end of the year he could be starting for the Twins, but I’d like to see him in St Paul until that slot opens. On the other hand, I’d call up Contreras now, and give him some run. Yeah, he bats left, but he is flat out better than Garlick (who is worse than useless with a pitching change, and has looked pretty bad in RF). And if you aren’t going to try Contreras now, then when?

Inside options might click, and if not May and June will likely bring some trade options (Atlanta rebuilt their whole outfield on the fly last year, and did pretty well). (And OMG, how is Thielbar/Stashak considered more valuable than Minaya/Smeltzer? That swap should happen today.)

[stringer bell]

On 4/19/2022 at 10:03 AM, PatPfund said:

Most of the focus here is on pitchers, because the Twins were so bad at that last year they clung to every asset, then went out and got a lot more (which we probably all agree needed to happen).

But that left the 40-man almost devoid of position players not on the MLB roster other than infielders Lewis and Miranda. Lewis plays middle infield, has only played a couple weeks in the past two years, and needs extended time at SS where the Twins are likely to need a permanent player by next spring. Plus, middle infield is the absolute least of the lineup issues. Miranda is likely the most MLB-ready bat in the system with a good run at AAA, and there is more need there (given struggles with the bats and/or gloves at the corner spots), but I don’t see anything happening until May

The immediate crunch is having only 6 OFs on the 40-man with ALL OF THEM are currently up with the Twins (2 of them hurt), while the team's most gaping holes in the order are in the outfield. All three spots until Buxton returns. (Kirilloff is a total non-entity right now until he is both healthy and hitting. Which might not be this year or ever.) So they can't make a real move to improve the position without 40-man moves,

I'm not terrified of any team claiming anybody I've suggested, because they are either underperforming or older or both. Don't dump for the sake of dumping, but the Twins need some OF options via promotion or trade, and every one would mean a 40-man spot. If it means we lose a declining year of Thielbar or the hope that Vallimont learns how to control his pitches after years of wildness, well so be it.

Larnach should get his extended shot now, and be kept on the 40-man even if he needs to go back down. Celestino needs to play every day and has only had tastes of AAA. By the end of the year he could be starting for the Twins, but I’d like to see him in St Paul until that slot opens. On the other hand, I’d call up Contreras now, and give him some run. Yeah, he bats left, but he is flat out better than Garlick (who is worse than useless with a pitching change, and has looked pretty bad in RF). And if you aren’t going to try Contreras now, then when?

Inside options might click, and if not May and June will likely bring some trade options (Atlanta rebuilt their whole outfield on the fly last year, and did pretty well). (And OMG, how is Thielbar/Stashak considered more valuable than Minaya/Smeltzer? That swap should happen today.)

I think the imminent reduction of of the major league staff has a lot to do with the lack of movement between St. Paul and Minneapolis. In looking at the Saints roster and statistics, they have a great number of former major league pitchers and three more would be added on May 2. The only remaining Saints pitchers on the 40-man roster are Sands, Moran and Strotman. None of them look like like are up for a promotion in the near future. Among the non-roster pitchers, Minaya looks like the best bet for promotion and although he has no big league experience, Yannier Cano would seem to have earned a shot. Two spots on the 40-man would have to be made for those guys and more than the original three arms would have to go to AAA. Another player to consider is Devin Smeltzer. I would think a straight switch for Winder might make sense, but again.....40-man issues.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I think the imminent reduction of of the major league staff has a lot to do with the lack of movement between St. Paul and Minneapolis. In looking at the Saints roster and statistics, they have a great number of former major league pitchers and three more would be added on May 2. The only remaining Saints pitchers on the 40-man roster are Sands, Moran and Strotman. None of them look like like are up for a promotion in the near future. Among the non-roster pitchers, Minaya looks like the best bet for promotion and although he has no big league experience, Yannier Cano would seem to have earned a shot. Two spots on the 40-man would have to be made for those guys and more than the original three arms would have to go to AAA. Another player to consider is Devin Smeltzer. I would think a straight switch for Winder might make sense, but again.....40-man issues.

And I think In 10 days the waiver wire will be awash with potential upgrades that could be claimed and also increase the likelihood of a DFA’d asset making it through waivers and being reassigned to AAA

[PatPfund]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I think the imminent reduction of of the major league staff has a lot to do with the lack of movement between St. Paul and Minneapolis. In looking at the Saints roster and statistics, they have a great number of former major league pitchers and three more would be added on May 2. The only remaining Saints pitchers on the 40-man roster are Sands, Moran and Strotman. None of them look like like are up for a promotion in the near future. Among the non-roster pitchers, Minaya looks like the best bet for promotion and although he has no big league experience, Yannier Cano would seem to have earned a shot. Two spots on the 40-man would have to be made for those guys and more than the original three arms would have to go to AAA. Another player to consider is Devin Smeltzer. I would think a straight switch for Winder might make sense, but again.....40-man issues.

Definitely agree the 40-man Saints pitchers are not ready, but I also think the three you mention all have promise along with their issues, so I'd keep them on the 40 man and in St Paul. Especially the starters, because (shockingly) that isn't the Twins issue right now; the SPs have been solid, and Winder is ready if they needed help. (The fact they don't is why I'd option Winder to start regularly in St Paul until he is needed.)

Our relief corps is among the worst in baseball now, though. And there is immediate help in St Paul. I'd DFA Vallimont, add Cotton (who cleared waivers and is a Saint), and call him up while optioning Winder. DFA Stashak or Thielbar and add Minaya. And Cano has looked good; you could DFA the other of Stashak/Thielbar, and call him up. You'd be adding some back end oomph, and a longer reliever. Maybe instant help, and/or at least a taste of the bigs for future help.

Come May, maybe you option some of the newbies, or maybe it is time to make a call between them or Duffey and Jax

I do actually believe the pitching pipeline is working; behind those mentioned, there are other relievers with experience, and some really good starters coming along. I love what these guys did for us in the past, but I almost hope Stashak and Thielbar would get claimed. Any MLB future they have is probably in another uniform.

[stringer bell]

I just read that the Twins have shut Alcala down altogether. It would not surprise me if he was placed on the 60-day IL at this point. He seems to have made no progress in the time he was on the IL so far. Also, Sanchez is reporting an abdominal issue, so we might be entering the Chance Sisco era with the Twins, which would also require a 40-man move.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I just read that the Twins have shut Alcala down altogether. It would not surprise me if he was placed on the 60-day IL at this point. He seems to have made no progress in the time he was on the IL so far. Also, Sanchez is reporting an abdominal issue, so we might be entering the Chance Sisco era with the Twins, which would also require a 40-man move.

Not Godoy? Also a 40 man move…

[stringer bell]

47 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

Not Godoy? Also a 40 man move…

I guess, in my mind, Sisco has the better resume. Both catchers hit left and are about the same age. Sisco has far more big league experience (over 3 years) and once was regarded as a top prospect. He's hit better in (SSS) St. Paul, as well. 

[Linus]

7 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I just read that the Twins have shut Alcala down altogether. It would not surprise me if he was placed on the 60-day IL at this point. He seems to have made no progress in the time he was on the IL so far. Also, Sanchez is reporting an abdominal issue, so we might be entering the Chance Sisco era with the Twins, which would also require a 40-man move.

Here comes the Tommy John.