Twins catchers, SS, and trades. A quick reflection

[terrydactyls]

10 hours ago, Linus said:

No it was a poor move at the time and a poor move now.  Quit giving cover to another bad decision by the FO. 

Objection, Your Honor!  He is presenting his own opinions as facts not in evidence.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not sure I agree with number two, per spotrac the twins current payroll is sitting at 132.6 million.

if you remove Urshela (6.5), Sanchez(7.5), and Gray (10.6) that comes to 24.9. Donaldson (23), and Garver (3.35) and , so the twins could have signed Correa and still had about the same payroll if they wouldn't have traded for Gray.. 

So IMO you could say the twins wouldn't have been able to trade for Gray without getting rid of Donaldson or you could say they turned Donaldson and Garver into Urshela, Sanchez, and Gray, but tying the Correa signing to Donaldson is Twins fans running cover for the FO and owners.

I am not arguing it was the right or wrong move, everybody can have their own opinion on that, I am saying their was a path to signing Correa that didn't include trading Donaldson and left the twins in about the same spot (1.5) payroll.

I think it's reasonable to say the gain was actually Gray.  However, It makes little sense IMO to argue that the team would have been in the same position without Gray.  I am sure they also considered the risk associated with a 36 y/o player continuing to decline when assessing future value (2023-24).  That should not be ignored.  Next year,  they can non-tender Urshela and the net is 21.75 plus whatever IKF gets in arbitration or roughly 28-29M.  It's still a big if but if Lewis fills that role the net of this for next year is $27M+ to spend elsewhere and an additional $8m in 2024 when IKF will be a FA.  

Donaldson meant very little to this team becoming a contender beyond 2022.  It's all about the pitching prospects, Lewis, and Miranda, in that order, IMO.  I see it as trading Donaldson had at least a neutral impact for 2022 and definitely a plus effect beyond 2022.

[LewFordLives]

I was mystified by the series of moves right after the lockout. I didn't feel there was a need to unload Donaldson's contract. That said, the Correa signing made up for it, and I will say Sanchez has not been the waste of a roster spot I feared. He looks "ok" behind the plate. 

Where the front office lost me again was the Rogers trade. I don't get it. If they are really making moves for 2023, as some suspected all along, then it makes sense, since they were not going to spend the money to keep him. But then why sign Correa to what will likely be a one year deal?

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

1) Immediate term .... His wRC+ is 71 and his OPS is 581.  Obviously, very SSS but he would have made absolutely no difference so far.  Let's revisit this at the end of the year and see how much we miss Donaldson.

2) It made getting Correa possible

3) Long-term we are very likely much better off in 2023-24.  They could non-tender Urshela and get far more out of spending the 21.75m elsewhere and this team is going to have holes to fill next year.

Did you really just cite Donaldson's 2022 OPS in Nr 1 but not Correa's in Nr 2?

 

[David HK]

21 hours ago, ashbury said:

The only qualm I have about these moves is that the combination leading to Donaldson's departure left us woefully thin at the catcher position, banking on one veteran not being as terrible behind the plate as advertised, and on a promising young one showing better at the plate than he showed last year.  I was okay with the basic thinking, especially the latter point (which as yet isn't proving out), but not without a Plan B in evidence if either of the guesses proved wrong.  Having Sisco at St Paul is barely Plan C, since activating him would require a 40-man deletion, and catcher injuries often are serious yet not requiring a 60-day IL stint.

Three catchers on the major league squad is lunacy I usually won't try to defend, but three catchers on the 40-man seems mandatory unless you enjoy roster difficulty at a time never of your own choosing.

I was dumbfounded losing Rorty.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Did you really just cite Donaldson's 2022 OPS in Nr 1 but not Correa's in Nr 2?

 

So, we should want Donaldson's meager performance because Correa is not hitting.  Plus, I like the chances of a guy in his prime bouncing back over a 36 y/o.  That's just short-term.  Correa's value could very well be what he brings at the deadline.  It looks like a great trade beyond 2022.  We should revisit this at the deadline and the end of the year.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I think it's reasonable to say the gain was actually Gray.  However, It makes little sense IMO to argue that the team would have been in the same position without Gray.  I am sure they also considered the risk associated with a 36 y/o player continuing to decline when assessing future value (2023-24).  That should not be ignored.  Next year,  they can non-tender Urshela and the net is 21.75 plus whatever IKF gets in arbitration or roughly 28-29M.  It's still a big if but if Lewis fills that role the net of this for next year is $27M+ to spend elsewhere and an additional $8m in 2024 when IKF will be a FA.  

Donaldson meant very little to this team becoming a contender beyond 2022.  It's all about the pitching prospects, Lewis, and Miranda, in that order, IMO.  I see it as trading Donaldson had at least a neutral impact for 2022 and definitely a plus effect beyond 2022.

Completely agree with all this, which is why I only said I didn't agree with #2, because there were multiple paths of keeping both.

[USAFChief]

8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

So, we should want Donaldson's meager performance because Correa is not hitting.  Plus, I like the chances of a guy in his prime bouncing back over a 36 y/o.  That's just short-term.  Correa's value could very well be what he brings at the deadline.  It looks like a great trade beyond 2022.  We should revisit this at the deadline and the end of the year.

So. We should want Correa's meager performance because Donaldson isn't hitting.

 

The actual point would be, neither should yet be judged on 2022 numbers.

[dxpavelka]

On 4/17/2022 at 10:19 AM, Linus said:

I think it is also important to point out that Falvine signed Donaldson just two years ago. 

Also important to point out that when they had a chance to get Correa they found and escape hatch from what they owed Donaldson.

[tony&rodney]

It should be noted that the Twins could have rostered Correa, Donaldson, and Rogers plus Bundy and Archer with the other players and still be below their current budget. They also could have easily gone to $150 million too. 

The Twins have their own ideas of what to do and it doesn't really have much to do with savings apparently or they would have rostered a team for $100 million or less. As others have noted in many separate posts - we will all get a chance to compare the outcomes by the end of this year and there will be another chapter added at that time. At that time Donaldson could be finished as could Correa or either might be an MVP winner. Vegas will take your money either way.

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

So. We should want Correa's meager performance because Donaldson isn't hitting.

 

The actual point would be, neither should yet be judged on 2022 numbers.

I agree and previously stated this should be revisited.  We can however acknowledge the benefits post 2022 but you refuse to acknowledge that aspect of this trade so here we are.

[KBJ1]

Correa is a fine player and all and SS was a gaping hole last year, but has anyone compared  Eddie Rosario & Carlos Correa career numbers?

They are virtually Identical.

Eddie makes $8M

Correa $35M

Frankly I'd rather Lewis or Miranda at SS,

Garver behind the plate, Eddie in Left and $27M more $$ in the bullpen.

Thus team has ZERO chance of even getting out of LAST place, let alone go to the World Series.

[Mark G]

10 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Correa is a fine player and all and SS was a gaping hole last year, but has anyone compared  Eddie Rosario & Carlos Correa career numbers?

They are virtually Identical.

Eddie makes $8M

Correa $35M

Frankly I'd rather Lewis or Miranda at SS,

Garver behind the plate, Eddie in Left and $27M more $$ in the bullpen.

Thus team has ZERO chance of even getting out of LAST place, let alone go to the World Series.

That might be a little harsh.  They have 2 chances; slim and fat.    

[joefish]

On 4/17/2022 at 10:17 AM, stringer bell said:

The Twins have the two catchers who have split time and so far Sanchez has been far more productive. Going into the Red Sox series, Bremer mentioned that Jeffers had not swung and missed in a game up to that point. He's struck out a bunch the last two days. Jeffers hasn't hit many on the barrel so far, but I guess I'm thinking he will eventually hit at a decent level. Sanchez hit a grand slam, a double and a couple of other hard hit balls, but has 11 Ks. With Sanchez in a walk year, the Twins have Jeffers (still unproven), two prototypical third catchers (Cisco and Godoy) and then prospects at high A or below. 

In summary, they are betting very heavy on Ryan Jeffers. I'm pretty sure they aren't going to give up on Jeffers very soon.

Which is why Jeffers is dh-ing while Arraez sat on the bench today. Jeffers is gonna get his swings. 

[Major League Ready]

17 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Correa is a fine player and all and SS was a gaping hole last year, but has anyone compared  Eddie Rosario & Carlos Correa career numbers?

They are virtually Identical.

Eddie makes $8M

Correa $35M

Frankly I'd rather Lewis or Miranda at SS,

Garver behind the plate, Eddie in Left and $27M more $$ in the bullpen.

Thus team has ZERO chance of even getting out of LAST place, let alone go to the World Series.

Rosario has 10.8 career WAR.  Correa has 27.3 WAR.  Rosario’s had a wRC+ of 117 in his best offensive year.  Correa has 5 years with a much higher wRC+ (123 /134 /136 / 142 and 152)  Of course, Correa is also a superb defender and Rosario is below average.  In what universe are they virtually the same?

Why would you want Rosario in LF?  Among 261 players with 30 or more ABs, Rosario literally ranks dead last on Fangraphs with -.8 WAR,  That's your solution?  I love Garver but he is struggling too with a wRC+ of 71.   Lewis has not played in 2 years and after 13 games you want to promote him to the MLB level and you want to declare the season a total loss after 2 weeks.  I think you might be over reacting just a little.

[RpR]

On 4/18/2022 at 7:50 PM, USAFChief said:

So. We should want Correa's meager performance because Donaldson isn't hitting.

 

The actual point would be, neither should yet be judged on 2022 numbers.

If Correa plays short like Ozzie Smith, I am VERY happy.

[goulik]

I wonder what this s conversation would look like if we didn’t have Correa’s defense at SS. Even with the lack of offense, the defense has been fun to watch.

[goulik]

1 minute ago, goulik said:

I wonder what this s conversation would look like if we didn’t have Correa’s defense at SS. Even with the lack of offense, the defense has been fun to watch.

Oh, wait, sorry! Baseball is supposed to be only fun to watch for the offense. My bad…