Twins catchers, SS, and trades. A quick reflection

[mikelink45]

Ryan Jeffers - 188/278/188  last year - 199/270/401

Mitch Garver - 250/367/375 1 HR last year 256/358/517

Gary Sanchez - 227/292/409 1HR 11 Ks in 22 ABs last year 204/307/423 

Still trying to figure out the catcher plans.  Are we better?  Were we required to trade Garver to get Kiner-Falefa so we could get rid of Donaldson? 

By the way Kiner Falefa is batting 174/208/261

Correa is batting 188/280/261  Come on Carlos!

Chase Petty has one start - 7 innings, 1`.29 era, 6 K .0857 Whip

Sonny Gray - now hurt, I hope it does not last long. 2 starts, 4.2 innings 3.86 era whip 1.286

So far we are winning the Urshela over Donaldson except that Josh has two game winners and seems quite happy. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it's kind of impossible to judge any one move this offseason in isolation. Each move led to the ability to make the next move and the sum of all the parts are what matters.

And this early in the season, I have no idea how the sum of those parts adds up.

[LastOnePicked]

I'm typically about as cranky and skeptical as you'll find when it comes to the moves of this FO, but even I don't feel secure about any assessments of these moves yet. Let's give 'em another look at the mid-way point.

All I feel relatively comfortable saying at this point is that if this FO was unlucky with moves last year, well, that luck doesn't yet seem to have changed. 

[Prince William]

Sometimes you win for the moment, you lose over time on trades. Then there are the times it is the other way around. Jake Cave was useful in 2018. In 2021, Gil might have been more useful in 2021 and beyond. 

[Rosterman]

We gotta give it the month of April at the least.

 

Yes, it was all about clearing the Donaldson salary, not just this season but next.

[Linus]

I think it is also important to point out that Falvine signed Donaldson just two years ago. 

[TwinsDr2021]

29 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

We gotta give it the month of April at the least.

 

Yes, it was all about clearing the Donaldson salary, not just this season but next.

Remind me again who signed Donaldson to a contract that would need to be cleared after two years?

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Remind me again who signed Donaldson to a contract that would need to be cleared after two years?

Donaldson was a win-now move and everyone knew the back half of that contract was going to be problematic but it was a required cost to get Donaldson. Getting out from under the back half was an accomplishment. Getting out from under it while actually getting value in return was even better.

[ashbury]

The only qualm I have about these moves is that the combination leading to Donaldson's departure left us woefully thin at the catcher position, banking on one veteran not being as terrible behind the plate as advertised, and on a promising young one showing better at the plate than he showed last year.  I was okay with the basic thinking, especially the latter point (which as yet isn't proving out), but not without a Plan B in evidence if either of the guesses proved wrong.  Having Sisco at St Paul is barely Plan C, since activating him would require a 40-man deletion, and catcher injuries often are serious yet not requiring a 60-day IL stint.

Three catchers on the major league squad is lunacy I usually won't try to defend, but three catchers on the 40-man seems mandatory unless you enjoy roster difficulty at a time never of your own choosing.

[stringer bell]

I continue to be intrigued by the Twins 40-man roster. In hindsight, it appears a near certainty that the Twins were looking for a way to clear space for Garlick before the season started. Apparently, they were counting on moving a pitcher or two off the 40-man, either by DFA or placing them on the 60-day IL, or by trade. They have since designated Cotton to make space for Garlick, but if/when they need another catcher, they will have to make room. 

I'm also pretty sure two pitchers that are in St. Paul (Minaya and Smeltzer) would be on the staff if they were on the 40-man roster. I think there are DFA candidates on the 40-man, but with the coming cut to 13 pitchers, the Twins probably don't want to promote someone and then risk that guy or someone being claimed within two weeks. 

Certainly, other teams have the same issues. Having two catchers on the 40-man and so many pitchers just does make it tougher for the Twins to maneuver than most.

[Brock Beauchamp]

33 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The only qualm I have about these moves is that the combination leading to Donaldson's departure left us woefully thin at the catcher position, banking on one veteran not being as terrible behind the plate as advertised, and on a promising young one showing better at the plate than he showed last year.  I was okay with the basic thinking, especially the latter point (which as yet isn't proving out), but not without a Plan B in evidence if either of the guesses proved wrong.  Having Sisco at St Paul is barely Plan C, since activating him would require a 40-man deletion, and catcher injuries often are serious yet not requiring a 60-day IL stint.

Three catchers on the major league squad is lunacy I usually won't try to defend, but three catchers on the 40-man seems mandatory unless you enjoy roster difficulty at a time never of your own choosing.

Yeah, the most glaring downside of this off-season is the exit of both Garver and Rortvedt. Catching went from an organizational strength to a weakness in a week. 

[Linus]

Grady made an interesting observation in one of his last years with the club. I’m paraphrasing but he said when you r pitching is a mess it really screws up your 40 man because you are in a constant roster churn trying to find the next arm that can get somebody out. 

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, the most glaring downside of this off-season is the exit of both Garver and Rortvedt. Catching went from an organizational strength to a weakness in a week. 

And I never viewed it as a strength so overwhelming that it needed to be viewed as oversupply.  Three major league quality catchers, at differing stages of development and two of whom can be optioned to the minors as needed - that's quite valuable, and not to be discarded lightly without a fourth catcher waiting in the wings.  I really expected some additional move, of more substance than signing castoff prospect Chance Sisco, but it never came.

[stringer bell]

The Twins have the two catchers who have split time and so far Sanchez has been far more productive. Going into the Red Sox series, Bremer mentioned that Jeffers had not swung and missed in a game up to that point. He's struck out a bunch the last two days. Jeffers hasn't hit many on the barrel so far, but I guess I'm thinking he will eventually hit at a decent level. Sanchez hit a grand slam, a double and a couple of other hard hit balls, but has 11 Ks. With Sanchez in a walk year, the Twins have Jeffers (still unproven), two prototypical third catchers (Cisco and Godoy) and then prospects at high A or below. 

In summary, they are betting very heavy on Ryan Jeffers. I'm pretty sure they aren't going to give up on Jeffers very soon.

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Linus said:

Grady made an interesting observation in one of his last years with the club. I’m paraphrasing but he said when you r pitching is a mess it really screws up your 40 man because you are in a constant roster churn trying to find the next arm that can get somebody out. 

25 pitchers on the 40-man and only 15 position players, up until just the other day, is firm evidence that, to put it charitably, the FO's pitching pipeline isn't at full volume quite yet.

[Linus]

Perfect example is Jharel cotton. He is on the 40 man for a considerable amount of the off season thru spring training and opening day. Now a dfa. 

[stringer bell]

There isn't much "roster chum" among the position players. As far as the pitchers, relievers who aren't back-end and who aren't at least in AAA would qualify for that definition IMHO. I think Vallimont should be in jeopardy, other than that, no obvious choices to clear spots.

[Doctor Gast]

I'd trade Jeffers instead of Garver and Rortvedt

[baul0010]

7 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Ryan Jeffers - 188/278/188  last year - 199/270/401

Mitch Garver - 250/367/375 1 HR last year 256/358/517

Gary Sanchez - 227/292/409 1HR 11 Ks in 22 ABs last year 204/307/423 

Still trying to figure out the catcher plans.  Are we better?  Were we required to trade Garver to get Kiner-Falefa so we could get rid of Donaldson? 

By the way Kiner Falefa is batting 174/208/261

Correa is batting 188/280/261  Come on Carlos!

Chase Petty has one start - 7 innings, 1`.29 era, 6 K .0857 Whip

Sonny Gray - now hurt, I hope it does not last long. 2 starts, 4.2 innings 3.86 era whip 1.286

So far we are winning the Urshela over Donaldson except that Josh has two game winners and seems quite happy. 

Petty has already made a start!?!?!?!

I wasn't a fan of the Petty/Gray trade 

 

[ashbury]

31 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

Petty has already made a start!?!?!?!

At single A.

 

/ *whew!*

[Prince William]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

25 pitchers on the 40-man and only 15 position players, up until just the other day, is firm evidence that, to put it charitably, the FO's pitching pipeline hasn't produced quite yet.

Tampa used 41 pitchers last year, Houston 32. Roster churn did not exactly hurt them or say their pitching pipeline did not produce

 

4 hours ago, Linus said:

Grady made an interesting observation in one of his last years with the club. I’m paraphrasing but he said when you r pitching is a mess it really screws up your 40 man because you are in a constant roster churn trying to find the next arm that can get somebody out. 

 

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, baul0010 said:

Petty has already made a start!?!?!?!

I wasn't a fan of the Petty/Gray trade 

 

Yes - I went to Petty's minor league stats.

[baul0010]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

At single A.

 

/ *whew!*

Oh, thank God.  I was hoping we didn't give up a prospect, Cincinnati rushed him to the majors and then he goes 7 innings. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Prince William said:

Tampa used 41 pitchers last year, Houston 32. Roster churn did not exactly hurt them or say their pitching pipeline did not produce

Two different things.

I don't know what Tampa's 40-man makeup looked like a year ago, but today they have 21 pitchers and 19 batters which is completely normal.  Until a day ago, Minnesota's was 25/15 - they DFAed Derreck Rodriguez in favor of Kyle Garlick, so now it's 24/16 which is still pretty extreme.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Prince William said:

Tampa used 41 pitchers last year, Houston 32. Roster churn did not exactly hurt them or say their pitching pipeline did not produce

 

 

And they traded two pitchers on the 40 for 3 months of Nelson Cruz. Cleaning theirs up a bit and hindering the Twins. Ryan being as good as he has been has helped, but having a 25 year old holding down a 40 man spot that really never has been a great minor league pitcher hasn't helped the Twins.

[LA VIkes Fan]

10 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Donaldson was a win-now move and everyone knew the back half of that contract was going to be problematic but it was a required cost to get Donaldson. Getting out from under the back half was an accomplishment. Getting out from under it while actually getting value in return was even better.

Agreed. Trading Donaldson and getting 2 guys you might actually want on your team should be seen as a positive. Typical baseball contract, you endure the bad years on the back end ot get the good years on the front end. the good years didn't pan out and we dumped the bad years on the Yankees. 

[Linus]

15 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agreed. Trading Donaldson and getting 2 guys you might actually want on your team should be seen as a positive. Typical baseball contract, you endure the bad years on the back end ot get the good years on the front end. the good years didn't pan out and we dumped the bad years on the Yankees. 

No it was a poor move at the time and a poor move now.  Quit giving cover to another bad decision by the FO. 

[USAFChief]

I don't quite understand why anyone is happy Donaldson isn't a Twin.

 

 

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I don't quite understand why anyone is happy Donaldson isn't a Twin.

 

 

1) Immediate term .... His wRC+ is 71 and his OPS is 581.  Obviously, very SSS but he would have made absolutely no difference so far.  Let's revisit this at the end of the year and see how much we miss Donaldson.

2) It made getting Correa possible

3) Long-term we are very likely much better off in 2023-24.  They could non-tender Urshela and get far more out of spending the 21.75m elsewhere and this team is going to have holes to fill next year.

[TwinsDr2021]

19 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

1) Immediate term .... His wRC+ is 71 and his OPS is 581.  Obviously, very SSS but he would have made absolutely no difference so far.  Let's revisit this at the end of the year and see how much we miss Donaldson.

2) It made getting Correa possible

3) Long-term we are very likely much better off in 2023-24.  They could non-tender Urshela and get far more out of spending the 21.75m elsewhere and this team is going to have holes to fill next year.

Not sure I agree with number two, per spotrac the twins current payroll is sitting at 132.6 million.

if you remove Urshela (6.5), Sanchez(7.5), and Gray (10.6) that comes to 24.9. Donaldson (23), and Garver (3.35) and , so the twins could have signed Correa and still had about the same payroll if they wouldn't have traded for Gray.. 

So IMO you could say the twins wouldn't have been able to trade for Gray without getting rid of Donaldson or you could say they turned Donaldson and Garver into Urshela, Sanchez, and Gray, but tying the Correa signing to Donaldson is Twins fans running cover for the FO and owners.

I am not arguing it was the right or wrong move, everybody can have their own opinion on that, I am saying their was a path to signing Correa that didn't include trading Donaldson and left the twins in about the same spot (1.5) payroll.