Ryan and Ober Tip the Tendencies of the Twins Pitching Revolution

[Jamie Cameron]

The Twins front office has been averse to committing to free agent starting pitchers. Why? Clues can be found in the development of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

The void in quality in the rotation of the Minnesota Twins was obvious looking back on a miserable 2021 season. Derek Falvey, arriving from the Guardians with a sterling reputation for developing a pipeline of pitching talent, presided over a season in which everything went wrong, particularly pitching. 

Most Twins fans assumed the rotation would be a priority in a truncated off-season before 2022. At the very least, the Twins would strengthen their rotation with a solid mid-rotation free-agent starter, right? Wrong. While Twins territory lamented, the organization passed on the likes of Jon Gray, Carlos Rodon, Kevin Gausman, and Robbie Ray. Instead, the Twins signed Dylan Bundy before the lockout. Since the lockout ended, they added Chris Archer as a free agent and traded for Chris Paddack.

While this iteration of the rotation is undoubtedly improved, it hardly inspires confidence. Twins fans know arms are on the way; Cole Sands, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods-Richardson, and Matt Canterino, to name a few. But why do the Twins seem so averse to committing to free-agent pitchers for any length of time? While it is likely that part of the reason is simply striking out on free agent offers, other clues lie in the development of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

Derek Falvey uttered his now-famous desire to ‘build a sustainable winner’ in Minnesota upon arriving at Target Field. It’s accepted that developing a pipeline of pitching talent takes 5-6 years. The Twins' front office is now entering year six, and fans are starting to see the impact of that development. My argument is that the Twins are attempting to be loosely competitive in 2022; their real goal is a window of 2023 and beyond. We can examine the development of Ryan and Ober as a proxy for organization principles of pitcher development. Here are three common practices the Twins have leveraged to maximize Ryan and Ober that will be evident in the next wave of starting pitching talent that hits Target Field.

Maximize Velocity
Bailey Ober has a unique set of tools. He amassed a 32% K% throughout his MiLB career, an impressive number he combined with a 3.4% BB%. While Ober has had strong command since being drafted in the 12th round in 2017 (Falvey’s first draft), his fastball velocity was consistently at or below 90 mph throughout his MiLB career. When he reached the majors, Ober’s fastball velocity had increased to 92.3 mph. Ober’s height (he’s 6’9) allows him a top ten release extension in major league baseball. Put simply, Ober’s so tall he releases the ball closer to the plate than most pitchers, speeding batters up. Adding velocity, (via release extension or refining mechanics) is a skill-set the Twins have mastered and shown an ability help their pitchers translate onto the field.

Work the Fastball Up
It’s notable that five out of six members of the Twins rotation in 2022 have a track record of excellent control. In 2021 the average BB/9 across major league baseball was 3.3. Consider the Twins' internal rotation members and their numbers in 2021; Ryan 1.69, Ober 1.85. Ryan and Ober have fastball spin percentiles of 34 and 38, respectively. While it’s been well documented that Ryan has a flat fastball, his VAA (vertical attack angle) allows it to thrive and gives it a rising effect, a tendency that is maximized with fastballs up in the zone. While not all fastballs have the ability to outperform their inputs in the way Ryan’s does, the Twins have found success in going up in the zone, particularly for pitchers who don’t have elite velocity. You can see how this plays out in how Ober leverages his excellent control to locate his fastball up

The Slider Revolution
Throwing fastballs up in the strike zone is not a good plan in isolation, particularly if the pitch doesn’t benefit from the deception that Joe Ryan’s does. For Ober, this meant revamping his slider. Midway through 2021, he debuted a new slider, reworked to appear more distinct in velocity than his curveball. Ober added velocity to the pitch and more depth to the break. In the final month of Ober’s old slider, it surrendered a .294 xBA; this dropped to .270 the following month and .215 the month after that. In his first start of 2022, he threw the pitch 29%, compared to just 18% in 2021. 

Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are good pitching prospects and will likely have long, meaningful MLB careers with Minnesota. The Twins development staff has done excellent work with both, turning them into roughly 1.5 fWAR pitchers. Ultimately, they serve as placeholders at the front of the Twins' rotation. Soon they will be supplemented by Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Matt Canterino, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Cole Sands, and Jordan Balazovic. A number of the pitchers joining Ryan and Ober have the better raw velocity and stuff and, therefore, a higher ceiling as starting pitchers. It’s easy not to believe in the pitching factory Falvey has worked to develop in Minnesota. I do. It’s likely we’ll know who will lead the front of the Twins rotation by the end of 2022.

 

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Much to be optimistic about the Twins pitching.

[jmlease1]

I'm a fan of Ober & Ryan. They look like real pitchers, and I think there's something to having a rotation where not every pitcher looks the same. Ober, with his tremendous length and Ryan with his different release point and water polo delivery give a different look which adds deception to their approaches. With additional refinement on their pitches and approach, developing consistency, they can both be quality starters for the rotation.

I find the idea of "front of the rotation" starters to be as nebulous a concept as when people start talking about a pitcher being a "number one" or an "ace". To be one of the top 50 pitchers in MLB you might only need to accumulate 3 WAR in a season. Can Ober or Ryan be those kind of guys? Sonny Gray was last year, so why not Ober & Ryan?

 

[MGM4706]

Wow! The Twins have "MASTERED" helping young Pitchers? What universe are you living in? Gardenhire got fired because of his refusal to fire his good friend as a pitching coach who never improved any of the Twins pitchers. He took the guy to Detroit and same issue. Pitching never improved. The the Twins get a solid D in helping young Pitchers over the last 15 years?

[RJA]

Good thoughtful article.  I think developing a pitching pipeline and supplementing the current rotation to make the team competitive are two separate issues.  I do think the FO is doing a good job of developing young pitchers--though Ryan was actually acquired in a trade--but thus far we have not seen most of them make a mark in the majors, so the jury is still out.  But, they do look like they have a lot of potential.  I favor an approach that blends cultivating your own pitchers with signing a free agent to add experience, skill and leadership to the staff.  That type of pitcher could be a cornerstone to build on for 4 years.  The Gray trade was good, but imagine if we also had a Gausman type along with him.  Even the Paddack trade is a case of the Twins acquiring a "potential" quality starter as he has yet to show that he can have sustained success in the bigs.  I am not critical of the trade.  I am only pointing out that he is a development project not an accomplished starter.  I think there might just be a little too much hubris in the FO thinking that they can do what others cannot in "reclaiming" pitchers like  Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy, and Archer.  Sometimes it is better to sign one sure thing instead of multiple projects.  Still, I like what they are doing in the minors.  I just wish they were a little more flexible in looking at quality free agents.

[Shaitan]

While I like the analysis, The Rays developed Ryan, not the Twins.

The control pitcher concept is interesting, given that all their waiver wire RP pickups seems to be the opposite. Maybe it's coincidence, maybe that's what you get on waivers, or maybe they have a different RP philosophy.

[Rosterman]

We all dream of the BIG free agent signing. Yes, we got it, at least for a year, with Correa. But he doesn't pitch. Maybe what the front office showed is that they would be willing to grab a half-season rental if their place in the standings warrant such an acquisition.

 

Pitchers? Always a gamble. Especially if you look at overall production of the last few the Twins have signed. Thankfully Jake Odorizzi got a pro-rated salary during the 2020 season. Ervin Santana, Michael Pineda. Even back to Hector Santiago. The best the Twins could do? Of course, no one wants to come to Minnesota, it seems.

 

You have to develop from within.

 

You also, sadly, have to make an effort to keep what you develop (Jose Berrios) or take a chance, maybe, on others on the cusp or fringe (Liam Hendriks, Kyle Gibson). Hindsight?

 

The Twins did grab Sonny Gray. He's good for another year. We keep forgetting that Kenta Maeda will also be back. Chris Paddack is now a part of the immediate future.

 

Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy are placesetters. Partly because all those pitchers on the cusp still need a little work on tweaking things, as well as a lot more innings in, well, a less stressful environment than daily American League pitching.

 

Winder and Duran are getting some reps in the majors out of the pen. Will Duran be the rotation arm the Twins can always use, or does he have the stuff to be a light's out closer. (Joe Ryan, if he fails as a starter, definitely has the stuff to be a closer).

 

Why are our top prospects on the injured list (Balazovic?). Sands should see the majors. Enlow and Centerino should advance to AAA and have a shot in spring training, if we are lucky. Woods-Richardson and Varland and others are in the pipeline.

 

Hell, even Smeltzer is a prospect now. And we can't forget...Randy Dobnak, can we?

 

I still shake my head at pitching and bullpen management, though. This is the year I'm paying extra close attention to this important part of the game!

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Shaitan said:

The Rays developed Ryan, not the Twins.

True.

They also let him go for a rental DH believing more in there other young pitchers. The challenge is to both identify and develop pitching. Ryan is seen as a back end pitcher that will be too home run prone. Did the Twins see more in him to develop? Since leaving the Rays where he was an extreme fastball pitcher in the minors that mix has changed. Slider usage has doubled and fastball usage is just under 50%.

[Mark G]

Here I go again, the lone voice crying out in the wilderness, but I am not impressed with the development of our pitchers, from the time they are drafted (or traded for) to the time they are on the major league club.  We baby them from day one to the day they leave as a free agent.  I hear the argument all the time about that is just the way the game is played today, etc., etc., but if you look at the truly good pitchers even today, they pitch.  They don't get pulled after 4 or 5 innings because they are too afraid of the 3rd time through the line up and all that; they have stretched out and adapt as the game goes along.  I don't trust any FO that doesn't trust their pitchers.  And I get that makes me a minority of one sometimes, but with the training, nutrition, facilities, and the fact they are in the prime of their lives, there is no reason they cannot be allowed to pitch.  If a pitcher like Ryan or Ober is at risk of injury just because they go over a pitch limit, then do we really have top flight pitchers?  Right now, I would say no.  Time to develop that kind of pitcher.  

[High heat]

I am still unsure of Ryan and if he will have sustained success, but you have to like the results and the Slider usage with guys sitting on his fastball on Friday was great.  

Obers great control, height reminds me a lot of Chris Young.  A very solid MLB pitcher with sustained success. 

The rest of the "pipeline" is yet to be determined.  The lost 2020 and the injuries that followed for 2021 set the organization back in pitching development.  

I do believe the "Duran" philosophy is here to stay.  Starters who have health issues or struggle to develop the 3rd pitch move to a multi inning relief role and are scheduled "piggybacker."  The 4 or 5 inning starter isnt going anywhere and the need for guys to come in and fill inning at a high level is going to be crucial across MLB. Hard to have a bullpen of 1 inning guys who have to pick up 4 or 5 inning every day.  Taxes a lot of arms in a short time that way. 

[Jamie Cameron]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm a fan of Ober & Ryan. They look like real pitchers, and I think there's something to having a rotation where not every pitcher looks the same. Ober, with his tremendous length and Ryan with his different release point and water polo delivery give a different look which adds deception to their approaches. With additional refinement on their pitches and approach, developing consistency, they can both be quality starters for the rotation.

I find the idea of "front of the rotation" starters to be as nebulous a concept as when people start talking about a pitcher being a "number one" or an "ace". To be one of the top 50 pitchers in MLB you might only need to accumulate 3 WAR in a season. Can Ober or Ryan be those kind of guys? Sonny Gray was last year, so why not Ober & Ryan?

 

Good points. I generally agree. More so trying to communicate that some of the 'raw clay' coming down the pipe is even more exciting than Ryan and Ober. Thanks or reading!

[Jamie Cameron]

2 hours ago, MGM4706 said:

Wow! The Twins have "MASTERED" helping young Pitchers? What universe are you living in? Gardenhire got fired because of his refusal to fire his good friend as a pitching coach who never improved any of the Twins pitchers. He took the guy to Detroit and same issue. Pitching never improved. The the Twins get a solid D in helping young Pitchers over the last 15 years?

I said the Twins have 'mastered' adding velocity to pitchers.

[Jamie Cameron]

2 hours ago, Shaitan said:

While I like the analysis, The Rays developed Ryan, not the Twins.

The control pitcher concept is interesting, given that all their waiver wire RP pickups seems to be the opposite. Maybe it's coincidence, maybe that's what you get on waivers, or maybe they have a different RP philosophy.

Absolutely a fair point, however, yesterday's Ryan start was evidence of the Twins tweaking. 40% sliders against Boston yesterday (last season around 16%), resulted in 19 whiffs I think, his highest ever. 

[ashbury]

I hate to see the word "tip" in a headline concerning pitchers. For that brief moment I thought I was about to learn our pitchers had developed a bad habit.

 

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Good points. I generally agree. More so trying to communicate that some of the 'raw clay' coming down the pipe is even more exciting than Ryan and Ober. Thanks or reading!

That's fair. In terms of raw stuff and fitting more classic forms, guys like Winder, Canterino, Balazovic, Woods Richardson, etc fit the mold, so if the Twins can do the same things to add to them that they have with Ober (and potentially with Ryan) that's all to the good. And it does feel like that's happened/happening with Winder & Varland, both of whom have seen that increased velocity already.

[terrydactyls]

3 hours ago, Mark G said:

Here I go again, the lone voice crying out in the wilderness, but I am not impressed with the development of our pitchers, from the time they are drafted (or traded for) to the time they are on the major league club.  We baby them from day one to the day they leave as a free agent.  I hear the argument all the time about that is just the way the game is played today, etc., etc., but if you look at the truly good pitchers even today, they pitch.  They don't get pulled after 4 or 5 innings because they are too afraid of the 3rd time through the line up and all that; they have stretched out and adapt as the game goes along.  I don't trust any FO that doesn't trust their pitchers.  And I get that makes me a minority of one sometimes, but with the training, nutrition, facilities, and the fact they are in the prime of their lives, there is no reason they cannot be allowed to pitch.  If a pitcher like Ryan or Ober is at risk of injury just because they go over a pitch limit, then do we really have top flight pitchers?  Right now, I would say no.  Time to develop that kind of pitcher.  

I partially agree with you that with current technology, training facilities, nutritional guidance, and ten thousand coaches on each big league team, players should not be coddled.  But I also think COVID, a shortened season, and the lockout all caused a big setback for young players and that precautions are being taken to protect team assets.

[Highlander1]

The guardians? Minor league team? 

[Squirrel]

15 hours ago, Highlander1 said:

The guardians? Minor league team? 

The Guardians is the renamed team from Cleveland, where Falvey was when their pitching pipeline was developed.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

The Guardians is the renamed team from Cleveland, where Falvey was when their pitching pipeline was developed.

The primness about referring to the team the way it was named when he was with them, is a bit reminiscent of some people's discomfort with the name of the leagues Satchel Paige pitched in before the American League belatedly allowed him entry.

[Monkeypaws]

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Ultimately, they serve as placeholders at the front of the Twins' rotation.

Was gonna reply to this when I first read it, but after today, Joe Ryan might be a wee bit more than a placeholder