First Impressions of the 2022 Twins

[cHawk]

The Twins have started to 2022 season with a 2-4 record.

4/8 vs. SEA: Lost 2-1
4/9 vs. SEA: Lost 4-3
4/10 vs. SEA: Won 10-4
4/11 vs. SEA: Won 4-0
4/12 vs. LAD: Lost 7-2
4/13 vs. LAD: Lost 7-0

 

Highlights have included Byron Buxton’s hot start, Jhoan Duran’s first two appearances in the bigs, and Dylan Bundy’s first outing against Seattle.

Lowlights have included several hitters (Kirilloff, Sano, Jeffers) not hitting and multiple blowups from the pen late in games.

What are your first impressions of the 2022 Minnesota Twins?

[4twinsJA]

Need to score runs to win, not going to win many low scoring games. I feel bats will come around, pitching I don't know. There has been some surprises from starters, but can they maintain it and stay healthy, Relievers are a big question mark.

[Unwinder]

Highlight for me: Small sample size, but it seems like the the rotation is pretty OK. Paddack had a very bad outing, but we have a six-man rotation for the moment, so until someone gets injured, he's expendable.

Lowlight: Injury bug coming right away for Alcala and Kirilloff.

Soul-crushing darkness: The Twins just didn't bring it in the Dodgers series. I don't think this is a matter of skill or ability, I think it's a matter of motivation. I think they just didn't have enough heart to show up in that weather while the Dodgers absolutely did. The Twins need a Patrick Beverly.

Biggest surprise: I actually like Gary Sanchez. If he can keep having big moments on a reasonably regular basis I can accept him.

[wsnydes]

Lowlights?  Bats.  And the bats.  Oh, and the bats...

Early injuries to Kirilloff and Alacala.  Hopefully they're not as severe as they appear to be in early reports.

The bullpen, while solid early, has already shown signs of being a problem.  

 

Highlights?  Nice outings for Bundy and Duran.  Paddack settled down after a rough first inning.

 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Lineup is at least 2 bats short, maybe 3 now that Kiriloff is gone. We have 3 strong and potentially elite bats in Buxton, Correa and Polanco, two potentially good complimentary bats in Arraez and Urshela (we need to play them both at the same time), and the catchers are decent as an entry. Huge wasteland after that. Kepler isn't good at the plate and Sano is way too streaky. LF is a void. Nothing much on the bench or at AAA. 

The pitching? Better. Probably will wind up about league average which is a step forward. Staff doesn't ahve a lot of really weak points but lacks the top end in the rotation and bullpen. Having said that, we have young, talented guys who might develop into top end guys. Actually, I'm fairly optimistic on the pitching for the next 2-3 years. 

Defense and management? Both should be better but are off to slow starts. I expect the defense to stabilize at a pretty high level, not so sure about Baldelli. I've been a defender of his but he just doesn't seem to get it or to be getting any better. Way too mechanical and too player friendly. He might need to be replaced to give this team a spark but I'm still withholding judgement. 

Overall - mediocre to slightly average team. Better than last year, but still at least one year away from truly contending and may need 2 years to develop a high end starter or two from the young guys and at least another 2 bats In fact, we probably need 3 bats since we will need to replace Correa after this season. 

Predict between 77 and 83 wins depending on injuries and development curve of the young guys. Right now if I had to bet I would say 78-84.

[wsnydes]

I'm not sure about a hot Buxton start.  Sure, he's got 3 HRs in 6 games, but that's pretty much all he's done.  10 Ks in 26 PAs isn't great and is double the number of hits that he's got.  I know the OPS is nice, but I'd like less feast or famine to call it a hot start.

It's early yet though.  I'm not worried about him getting going.

[MMMordabito]

[gunnarthor]

It's too early to revise my ST prediction. Despite the slow start, the offense will be good but the pitching staff won't be good. Not a huge fan of Rocco. Of the players struggling, I'm most worried about Kepler actually. 2019 is looking far away and we have some potential bats to replace him with. Sano has been ok in the field to my naked eye but might be better suited for full-time DH at some point. I think both Correa and Buxton are truly great players, so I'm not going to worry about them and just enjoy watching them play.

I'm really impressed with Duran and I think Bundy will be good. If the staff really can maintain a 115 ERA+, they'll make the playoffs. But I don't think they can or will. We just lack the horses. 

[shortround81]

Can't complain

[rv78]

Have scored 20 runs in 6 games and half of those were in 1 game. Which means in the other 5 games they managed to average 2 runs per game. The pitching staff doesn't have the talent to hold teams to less than 2 runs per game so if the hitting doesn't improve and quickly, the season will be lost in April and May just like last year. Kepler and Sano are dead weight to the offense unless they hit a HR and that doesn't happen often enough to matter. Jeffers and Sanchez can't be counted on. Urshela could be decent but he's blocking Arraez at 3rd. Rocco needs to take off his blinders and get his best bats in every game. Every game he doesn't just proves he doesn't know how to manage. 

[mnfireman]

My impression of 2022 is: The more things change the more they stay the same: Injuries and ineffectiveness. And questionable Baldelli line-ups. Say what you want about players needing days off, I understand this. However, unless they were experiencing "unusual soreness" or "fatigue" following Tuesday nights game, there should be no reason for Correa and Buxton to both be off the field on the same day. Especially with a day off the next day. Sano needs a day off to regroup, as does Kepler. And facing a tough lefty like Kershaw, those are the two starters I would have rested for "getaway day."

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

I was watching Friday's game on my phone in a pool hall - so not the best view.  However, did Arraez have a couple of really ugly plays in that meltdown inning?  I thought maybe the batboy was playing third base.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, wsnydes said:

Highlights?  Nice outings for Bundy and Duran.  Paddack settled down after a rough first inning.

Don't forget Archer.

[bighat]

Way too many unproductive ABs, a black hole in the 7-8-9 spots in the lineup, no ace starter, injury trouble and Rocco is already up to his "forfeiting" tricks for games he doesn't think are winnable.

Twins really need Correa to start clicking and play at an All-Star level, and need - at the very least - steady production from Kepler, Sano, and Sanchez in order to remain competitive. They also are going to need someone (Gordon? Larnach? Celestino?) to step up and produce at an MLB level.

So far this smells a lot like 2021.

[wsnydes]

18 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Don't forget Archer.

Good call!  I've already successfully blocked that series out of my memory banks!

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Good call!  I've already successfully blocked that series out of my memory banks!

I wouldn't have belabored the point except no one else had mentioned him either.

[wsnydes]

5 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I wouldn't have belabored the point except no one else had mentioned him either.

A solid outing against a great lineup deserves some credit though, so you were right to mention him.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The rotation has pitched pretty well. Good enough to keep them in games. As others have noted, there’s not enough horses, my prediction in that light is the 6 man rotation will last the season unless the injury bug hits hard, to manage the innings among a group that (outside of gray) none of them will touch 150 innings.

The bullpen has been rough, relievers typically have a lot of variability. Looking forward to some more churn as the season progresses.

I wonder how long Celestino stays up? Assume he’d be replaced by Upton or Garlick. I hope the bats wake up soon

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

I wonder how long Celestino stays up?

We are so thin on position players.  The 40-man roster has 15 position players only, and one of those is now on the short IL.  There are 12 on the major league squad.  Only Lewis and Miranda are currently at AAA.  To add a luminary like Jake Cave would require DFAing one of their 25 precious pitching arms.  So I think Celestino has a solid scholarship to stay with the big club now that Kirilloff is out of the picture.

If they put Kirilloff on the 60-day, they might just add another pitcher.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

We are so thin on position players.  The 40-man roster has 15 position players only, and one of those is now on the short IL.  There are 12 on the major league squad.  Only Lewis and Miranda are currently at AAA.  To add a luminary like Jake Cave would require DFAing one of their 25 precious pitching arms.  So I think Celestino has a solid scholarship to stay with the big club now that Kirilloff is out of the picture.

I gotta think as the rotation starts going deeper, they can reduce the bullpen. Two arms are coming off the active roster in 2 weeks. You could sneak a marginal reliever through waivers or add a marginal guy (and waive him) then as everybody would be churning a couple guys

[ashbury]

11 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

I gotta think as the rotation starts going deeper, they can reduce the bullpen. Two arms are coming off the active roster in 2 weeks.

Oh wait, you were looking for a forecast longer than 2 weeks?   Not from me, my friend.

[theBOMisthebomb]

They will be entertaining, and frustrating. The rotation has real promise. The bullpen is a scary mess - who will close games? I really like the new guys with the bat - Correa, Sanchez, and Urshela. The weather in Minnesota is awful and it doubles the misery when the Twins play a clunker when it's cold at Target Field. 

[howeda7]

The Rogers trade was a first guess bad mistake due to timing and will continue to lose them more games than it wins.

I can't watch Sano anymore

The Kiriloff news sucks.

Buxton/Correa and the early rotation returns give us hope, but someone will have to fill the Kiriloff/Sano hole. I hope we see Miranda soon.

[RedneckRay]

I’ll keep it relatively simple:

1. Kyle Garlick should be on the roster now that Kiriloff is out

2. I could see Archer preforming very well this year, and I think Paddack will do better than what we saw. However, I don’t expect Bundy will be much more than a #5 guy

3. As others have said, this lineup is way too streaky. Urshela needs to be the everyday 3B, while Arraez DHs. I wish Rocco would be more comfortable playing Areaez in LF, it would make it much easier to get him consistent ABs.

4. As for our catching tandem, I think Jeffers and Sanchez should be about 50/50. Sanchez has surprisingly looked pretty good behind the plate, and has earned compliments from our pitchers so far. He also is looking pretty good at the plate. Could be someone that Twins fans come to love I think.

[DocBauer]

To be fully honest? I'm disappointed at being 2-6 but optimistic.  I know that sounds strange to say. But come on, we're talking the first 8 games of 162 game season coming off a short ST, EVERYONE still ramping up, playing in really bad conditions, (for both teams to be fair), and the roster in flux right up to opening day, and playing against a pair of legitimate playoff/WS teams, I'm not sure 2-6 is all that terrible when a couple bad pitches/plays and some badly missed opportunities at bat could have us easily 3-3 to start. With just a little better weather, Sanchez hits a winning HR to put us at 3-3 and we all suddenly feel a little better.

You can't win a banner in April, but you can lose one, isn't that the old saying goes? But after 6 games? Not sure how you can predict the future after that. 

But I will tell you what I've seen that energizes me and concerns me, even after only 6 games.

THE BAD:

1] A healthy Kirilloff is a big part of the future of this team as an OF and 1B and mid lineup bat. Despite his slow start...just a few games...we believed his wrist was OK. Now it's not. His immediate future is in doubt, not to mention his long term future. And it pains me to no end to state that. With luck, this is something that will correct itself with time and therapy and he'll be ready to go in a few weeks. With semi-luck, he'll be ready to go in a couple of months. With bad luck, we're talking end of the season and 2023 and possibly nothing going forward. I don't want to say catastrophic, but the pressure is on Larnach to to adapt, learn, and produce now, or in the next few weeks as he grows in to his opportunity. 

2] Alcala was being counted on, and they didn't bring anyone on board to take the heat off of him or Duran to be a difference maker at the end of the pen. And now, after just a few games, he has an elbow problem. Is this just soreness that happens, especially after a short ramp up? God I hope so. Or is this something worse?

3] Slow bats from Sano and Kepler. But we know what they are capable of. How soon do they start to "click"? Sano in particular seemed to be ready coming out of ST. 

4] Duffey and Thielbar may not be STUDS, but they are good and experienced and they pretty much bottomed out in their 1st appearance. ONLY 6 games in, crap happens, will they rebound quickly?

THE GOOD:

1] While not outstanding, the 6 man rotation pieces have been OK. They've all flashed, or at least bulldoged through their first appearances. I mean, really, we're talking ONE START and we're already trying to break down the season? Come on! But I will admit I was surprised/pleased that Bundy and Archer and everyone else at least looked like a viable SP option coming off a limited ST. Honestly, while hopeful, I was actually expecting Bundy and Archer to get rocked. So far so good. [6 games!]

2] Despite a meltdown from Duffey and Thielbar, as mentioned, the rest of the pen has been solid to great mostly, thus far. Again,  6 games. But we've at least seen flashes, especially from Duran. Who steps up now with Alcala out? Don't be surprised to see Minaya up very soon.

3] DESPITE some missed opportunities in the first 6 games, we've seen power and possibilities for power and just "hitting" potential to score runs. This lineup, even missing Kirilloff, HAS potential to hit and score runs.

4] The defense has been very good despite a few bad plays. Sanchez has looked better than I expected. And if we're all just being honest, the Twins have made a few bad plays in these 6 games, but so has the opposition. And all the teams have made some good plays. But I've seen enough, despite a couple bad throws to 2B, to see that the defense will be solid now and going forward.

WILL we start to hit and produce runs like we are capable of?

WILL our SP continue to be solid?

WILL our BP be solid enough to grow and develop and DO THE DAMN JOB?

That's the BAD and the GOOD after SIX games and what needs to happen. 

[MplsFan]

36 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

To be fully honest? I'm disappointed at being 2-6 but optimistic.  I know that sounds strange to say. But come on, we're talking the first 8 games of 162 game season coming off a short ST, 

They’re 2-4 bro.  

[stringer bell]

It is only a week of games. The Twins faced a team that surprisingly won 90 games last year and another that won over 100, so the schedule was tough. They've faced four left handed starters out of the six games. Over the course of a season, it is usually about 70% right handed starters. The hitters have struck out 60 times in 52 innings of batting, while Twins pitchers have struck out 48 in 54 innings of pitching. They have hit nine homers and allowed seven. The Twins are next-to-last in team batting average and last in on-base percentage. 

Concerns--Sano, of course. Left field, especially now that Kirilloff is out and may be for a while. Injuries--the club was counting on both Alcala and Kirilloff to be keys in a successful season, both are out and might be for several weeks or even months. 

I can confidently say that the Twins hitting won't be this bad all season. Hitters are much more predictable and projectable than pitchers. The starting pitching has been a surprise, but remember it is very early. I'm hopeful the starters will be able to add an inning or two on their outings in the coming week and take some pressure off the bullpen. Probably the last five arms on this team won't be around in a month, so I'm not that concerned about Rodriguez, Jax and Romero. 

In summary, the record of 2-4 is disappointing, but not devastating. Let's see how the club does in the next couple weeks before burying them or judging World Series odds.

[DocBauer]

9 hours ago, MplsFan said:

They’re 2-4 bro.  

Typo or stupidity I'm not sure, lol. Thanks for the correction. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

17 hours ago, bighat said:

Way too many unproductive ABs, a black hole in the 7-8-9 spots in the lineup, no ace starter, injury trouble and Rocco is already up to his "forfeiting" tricks for games he doesn't think are winnable.

Twins really need Correa to start clicking and play at an All-Star level, and need - at the very least - steady production from Kepler, Sano, and Sanchez in order to remain competitive. They also are going to need someone (Gordon? Larnach? Celestino?) to step up and produce at an MLB level.

So far this smells a lot like 2021.

Sadly, you may be right. There's a lot of IFs there and they aren't all going to come true and maybe only Correa playing better. Most likely result is Kepler, Sano and Sanchez playing like they usually do - average to below at the plate - and Gordon, Larnach and Celestino and a legion of "work in progress development" players in LF. I'm sticking with 78-84. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

We are going to find out a lot about the ability of this roster to compete in the first month. The  first 21 games of the season are against Seattle  (90 wins in 2021), the Dodgers (106 and NLCS berth), Boston (92 and ALCS berth), KC (74), the White sox (93, division champs), improved Detroit (77), and Tampa (100, division champs). Not a schedule conducive to working out the kinks. The Twins would only be favored to win maybe one or two of those series, at home against Detroit or in Kansas City. Very realistic to go something like 7-14 or 8-13 in the first 21. 

The good news is we might get buried early but have a much easier schedule in May and June. Still, it sure looks like we can't compete with the big boys so far.