Justin Upton Time?

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, bighat said:

Larnach isn't the answer, he's looking at a Chris Parmalee ceiling at this point in his career. His window seems to have passed.

This is going to be a fun quote to dig out 5 years from now for somebody.

[Mike Sixel]

57 minutes ago, bighat said:

Agreed. The Front Office (and many Twins fans it seems) appeared to be operating under the foregone conclusion that Alex Kirilloff was a set-it-and-forget-it part of the OF this year. Remember when the Twins gave up Eddie Rosario the FO convinced themselves and many fans that AK was just going to pick up the slack? Ridiculous.

And going into 2022 did nobody ask themselves "Hmmm, I wonder if maybe a 2nd year player who hasn't played in 9 months, coming off a chronic injury might not be that good and/or reliable?"

I'd frankly take Garlick over Upton right now, but the Twins are going to have to address this problem rather than try and fix it with bubble gum and duct tape. Larnach isn't the answer, he's looking at a Chris Parmalee ceiling at this point in his career. His window seems to have passed.

 

At some point you have to start a rookie......and trust your process. I love how people have such certainty over a guy that has less than a few hundred ABs in the majors (not that you are wrong or right, got no idea).

[bighat]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

This is going to be a fun quote to dig out 5 years from now for somebody.

Hope I'm wrong.

Alas I fear it's more likely that I'm insulting Chris Parmalee. Sorry Chris.

[DocBauer]

On 4/13/2022 at 5:28 PM, Mike Sixel said:

They have Larnach, Martin, Lewis, Miranda and maybe 1-2 others in the minors. They hoped, I'm sure, Larnach would make the roster......

I agree, Rodriguez was called up, and he or Jax will go down for an OFer.

What issues would you want addressed (other than RP)?

What issues would I want addressed, other than RP?

Well, unfortunately Mike, RP is part of what I believe should have been addressed, as well as other areas, including the primary point of this discussion, the need for a RH OF. [Larnach is LH, Lewis is a SS, Miranda an INF/3B, and Martin has yet to fully transition to the OF and I don't believe is ready with his bat just yet].

My reference to having a shopping list is, I believe accurate. Even with the Buxton extension being a MAJOR issue, thankfully resolved brilliantly, the FO had to have at least somewhat of an idea what the cost of that extension would look like in AV, otherwise they would have balked. Next, they KNEW their needs: 2SP, SS, 1RP minimum, and a 4th OF of some sort that hit RH. And the OF didn't have to be able to play CF necessarily with Kepler and Gordon able to fill. In the bigger picture, Celestino is getting ready, and there are a couple of guys at AAA for "break glass" situations.

And despite some of our private thoughts on what the 2022 payroll might be, we didn't know. But the FO did, and they are around where they have been for the past few years, which is pretty much what the FO said they would do. So with all that information, why didn't they spend some of the money they knew was built in to their budget WHILE negotiating with Buxton? Those needs weren't going to go away, unless they did a complete 180 and began a much larger re-tool/re-build? Without needing to go in to specifics, there were a handful of quality SP options available that didn't require $20M+, or longer than 3-4yrs. Nobody that would have broke the bank or disrupted the 2022 payroll. Post lockout, they could still have made the Gray trade, and suddenly the front end of their rotation looks very different, and offers more concrete hope.

The bullpen, IMO, even without traditional roles that are becoming less and less important, needed a quality RH arm to work with Rogers in late inning situations without having to bank on the rapid development of Alcala and Duran. And I'm NOT talking about some multiple year $10M deal. But there were a lot of solid, proven RH arms that just sat for a long time that were available. No offense to Smith, who was a good and inexpensive middle innings addition, but the $ and opportunity was there for someone better to work with Rogers. 

Not going to address SS because they did address it, and then re-addressed it post lockout in a way I just can't argue with, and won't. 

But there was a definite need for that RH OF to give AK and Kepler days off and to address the need against LHP. I believe it was Nick, but can't recall 100%, who commented it was a "quiet concern" I believe. I think it wasn't so quiet. Betting on Rooker or Garlick was no answer for a team wanting to compete. And rushing Celestino was also no good answer. Via FA or smaller trade, there was a real need for someone to fill that role. And look, I'm just spit-balling here as an example, and I have no honest idea what the guy has left, but even if the Twins did what the Dodgers did and sign Kevin Pillar to a milb deal with a small MLB salary, I would have had more hope for him contributing in that role instead of Rooker and Gadlick. Through FA or small trade, it just shouldn't have been hard or expensive to add and cross off a real need that the roster clearly had. Hence speculation now of signing Upton with hopes of decent OF defense in the corners and a bat that might play for quite more year in the sun on a team that has a chance to be competitive. 

I like a lot about this team. I really do. And I would be happy with either Bundy or Archer as a flier. Hell, dust settled and smoke cleared post lockout, the way things turned out payroll wise, the might have still been able to sign both! But I think my shopping list and the store closed analogy is very appropriate. Right now, they'd have a more proven 1-2 veteran, proven punch in the rotation. They'd have what they have at 3B and SS and Catcher. But they would also have a realistic RH OF option, a proven RH late inning arm, STILL have Rogers, along without trading hardly anything from their prospect depth.

Sportrac's projected payroll for 2022 has the Twins at about $132.264 right now including the IL, primarily Maeda there. By being a little more aggressive early on, and taking advantage of other opportunities and needs as mentioned, they'd be in the $140's, maybe pushing $150M. Based on 2021 numbers, that would place the Twins somewhere between 15th and 11th based on 2021 numbers. Based on 2019 numbers, it would place the Twins around 15th to 12th in total payroll. So based on the past two full seasons of MLB, if the Twins were just a bit more aggressive in their moves, they would rank just slightly higher than the MLB payroll delta. For 2022, as of now, the Twins rank 17th in payroll. If they had been just a little smarter, a little more aggressive and addressed that damn shopping list as I've described, they'd be sitting, right now, 13th with the Giants and probably just behind the Cardinals. We'd be way behind Toronto, Houston, Atlanta, the Dirty Sox and others.

It's not just about payroll. We've seen that over and over again. And Atlanta last year is just a recent example. It's about being SMART! [OK, sometimes luck comes in to play with a sort series and players being hot].  And I have been SO supportive of this FO for so much that they have done and accomplished from  re-working the entire system, and been so supportive of ownership from 2020 covid and milb and about everything...but as a fan...and an intelligent human being... I also reserve the right to question if they have made a mistake or just blown opportunities. 

I think this team has a chance to be very good. And we all may be surprised by the pitching staff before all is done. And I don't speak about 6 games in regard to 182, but I DO think the FO BLEW some opportunities. And right now, I'm more worried about the pen than the rotation.