Kirilloff to the IL

[LA VIkes Fan]

Let's face reality, it sounds like Kirilloff is out for awhile. I suspect we'll be looking at a 60 day IL stint once we have to make a 40 man decision. Really hurts because we were counting on him to fill one of the top 5 spots in the Order and there isn't anyone to replace him on the roster in that role. We know who Kepler, Sano, and the catchers are and none of them can hit in the top 5 or even top 6 on a contending team. 

The choices are Gordon and Larnach for now unless we make a trade. I for one would like to se Gordon play LF every day for a month and see what he can do. I would either sign a FA RH hitting Of (but who?) or bring up Garlick as a RH stopgap playing 2-3 days a week for Kepler and Gordon. I would do that for the next 3-4 weeks so Larnach can play every day in AAA. Then I would bring Larnach up and play him every day unless Gordon takes off with regular playing time.  Gordon is 26 and Larnach is 25. They can either can play at the MLB level or they can't and its time for us to find that out. In an ideal world, we wind up with Gordon as a quality super utility and Larnach as an every day OF or at least one of them claims the job. The other end of the spectrum is they aren't good enough and we cut bait and move on to Contreras, Martin and Julien. Kirilloff is going to wind up as the every day 1B by next year so the LF spot is open. Let's use this time to fill it.     

 

[CRF]

I agree with the idea of putting Larnach out in left on a regular basis and seeing what he can do. It's time to find out if he can handle it and contribute. Keep Gordon as a utility guy. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

As much as I realize it's not a good solution, I play Gordon and Celestino until Larnach stops being atrocious in AAA (obviously, SSSS at play here but given how Trevor played in the second half of last season, I'm slowing things down with him).

[LA VIkes Fan]

Agreed. Make Larnach hit at AAA before we bring him up. Play Gordon and find what he really can do if he plays every day. This really does show how thin we are in the field. We've gone from a team that seemed to boast a lot of hitting depth with not much pitching in the org to one that seems to boast a lot of pitching depth that can't find a competent bat to play LF, the position where defense is the least important (well, other than DH but that's not really a position). Frankly, it's a little scary for the long term.   

[gunnarthor]

57 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

As much as I realize it's not a good solution, I play Gordon and Celestino until Larnach stops being atrocious in AAA (obviously, SSSS at play here but given how Trevor played in the second half of last season, I'm slowing things down with him).

I disagree. Remember how Rosario struggled in 14 and 15 at AA and AAA? His prospect status plummeted and folks wrote him off. But he comes up and in 15 and took off. Maybe Larnach will be similar. But I want to see. I like both Gordon and Celestino but he's a utility player. Celestino should be in AAA getting at-bats, improve his prospect stock, and be a trade chip.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I disagree. Remember how Rosario struggled in 14 and 15 at AA and AAA? His prospect status plummeted and folks wrote him off. But he comes up and in 15 and took off. Maybe Larnach will be similar. But I want to see. I like both Gordon and Celestino but he's a utility player. Celestino should be in AAA getting at-bats, improve his prospect stock, and be a trade chip.

In a perfect world, I agree about Gordon and particularly Celestino (because I care about Gilberto's development) but Larnach has just been not-good for awhile now and I have little faith he'll actually do anything to help the team right now.

But hey, I hope I'm wrong.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I disagree. Remember how Rosario struggled in 14 and 15 at AA and AAA? His prospect status plummeted and folks wrote him off. But he comes up and in 15 and took off. Maybe Larnach will be similar. But I want to see. I like both Gordon and Celestino but he's a utility player. Celestino should be in AAA getting at-bats, improve his prospect stock, and be a trade chip.

Why is the goal to turn Celestino into a trade chip? Why would the goal not to be to turn him into a player the Twins can use to win major league baseball games?

[chpettit19]

I've never understood the "he's X age, was a Y round draft pick, and he's been in the system Z amount of time so we need to just call him up and see if he's good and if he's not cut him" narrative. That's an awful way to develop prospects or manage a roster. If the Twins FO can't decide which guys in the minors are ready for the bigs or have a big league future without calling them up simply because a certain amount of time has passed they need to be fired. Celestino and Larnach were both called up before they were ready last year because of injuries and it showed. Not sure why you'd want to run that back as the strategy this year. There's 40-man and options reasons why some moves and decisions need to be made at certain times, but until you're forced to there's no reason to do it.

"Hey, I haven't finished developing this engine yet, but I've been working on it for Z amount of time so I better put it in my car and see if it runs and if it doesn't just toss it aside as a failed project." Doesn't make sense. Prospect development is not linear. That isn't how it works.

[USAFChief]

Nick Gordon? As an every day left fielder??

 

Yeesh.

[gunnarthor]

18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why is the goal to turn Celestino into a trade chip? Why would the goal not to be to turn him into a player the Twins can use to win major league baseball games?

Because his primary position seems to be CF. We have some good players at that position and highly rated prospects that might be able to play it as well. It could be better to trade him for a real starting pitcher. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Because his primary position seems to be CF. We have some good players at that position and highly rated prospects that might be able to play it as well. It could be better to trade him for a real starting pitcher. 

If he develops into a piece that can bring back a "real starting pitcher" Byron Buxton is the only CFer in the org that'd be better than him. I'm not trading that player if that's what Celestino turns into. Nobody is giving up a "real starting pitcher" for a 4th OFer which is probably what Celestino's ceiling is.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agreed. Make Larnach hit at AAA before we bring him up. Play Gordon and find what he really can do if he plays every day. This really does show how thin we are in the field. We've gone from a team that seemed to boast a lot of hitting depth with not much pitching in the org to one that seems to boast a lot of pitching depth that can't find a competent bat to play LF, the position where defense is the least important (well, other than DH but that's not really a position). Frankly, it's a little scary for the long term.   

How many starting Lfers that are good do you think most MLB teams have on their 40 man? The Twins have Kiriloff (hurt), Celestino (likely good) and Gordon on the roster. They have Larnach and maybe Lewis and Martin in AA and AAA. They have a few other guys that might be good, or not, in AA and AAA. 

They were, imo rightly, expecting one or both of AK and Larnach to be that LFer last year and this year. Given their pedigree, that seemed like a decent bet.....

[gunnarthor]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If he develops into a piece that can bring back a "real starting pitcher" Byron Buxton is the only CFer in the org that'd be better than him. I'm not trading that player if that's what Celestino turns into. Nobody is giving up a "real starting pitcher" for a 4th OFer which is probably what Celestino's ceiling is.

If his ceiling is 4th OFer, he shouldn't be our starting LFer.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

If his ceiling is 4th OFer, he shouldn't be our starting LFer.

I agree. He shouldn't be. And neither should Gordon. But unfortunately that's the situation they seem to have put themselves in.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree. He shouldn't be. And neither should Gordon. But unfortunately that's the situation they seem to have put themselves in.

AK is hurt, and Larnach hasn't hit somehow......what exactly do you think is realistic here? 

Also, I think Celestino could be a 2+ WAR player and is being underestimated, but that's a different topic.

[gunnarthor]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree. He shouldn't be. And neither should Gordon. But unfortunately that's the situation they seem to have put themselves in.

That's not because the plan, apparently, is to start Larnach. 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

AK is hurt, and Larnach hasn't hit somehow......what exactly do you think is realistic here? 

Also, I think Celestino could be a 2+ WAR player and is being underestimated, but that's a different topic.

Realistic to fill most of the time Kirilloff is going to miss and let Larnach get straightened out in AAA for a while? Michael Conforto. But I think Gordon and Celestino are the realistic plan at this point. I'm not saying they shouldn't be the starting LFers based on the current situation, I'm saying they shouldn't be the big picture plan for LF for the Twins moving forward.

And I hope Celestino gets to the 2+ WAR player level. Ceiling maybe isn't the right word. Should have said most likely outcome. 

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

That's not because the plan, apparently, is to start Larnach. 

That shouldn't be the plan right now either. Carrying both Larnach and Celestino in the bigs seems like a worst case scenario. Hopefully they get some answers on the wrist today and if it's a big problem Kirilloff goes on the 60-day and they can call up someone like Garlick and at least 1 of Larnach and Celestino can go to AAA and get the ABs they need.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Realistic to fill most of the time Kirilloff is going to miss and let Larnach get straightened out in AAA for a while? Michael Conforto. But I think Gordon and Celestino are the realistic plan at this point. I'm not saying they shouldn't be the starting LFers based on the current situation, I'm saying they shouldn't be the big picture plan for LF for the Twins moving forward.

And I hope Celestino gets to the 2+ WAR player level. Ceiling maybe isn't the right word. Should have said most likely outcome. 

At what point in the off season should they have signed a LFer, and assumed AK would be hurt and Larnach wouldn't hit? I mean, did you want them to spend their resources on a LFer?

Big picture plan is likely Larnach / Lewis / Martin / other draft pick/signee. 

[chpettit19]

50 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

At what point in the off season should they have signed a LFer, and assumed AK would be hurt and Larnach wouldn't hit? I mean, did you want them to spend their resources on a LFer?

Big picture plan is likely Larnach / Lewis / Martin / other draft pick/signee. 

Why should they have assumed Larnach was going to hit? I'm a Larnach fan, but he was figured out at the big league level last year and if I'm trying to compete (as they stated they are) I'm not assuming he's figured it out yet when he went back down and was bad at AAA then ended the year hurt. AK was coming off wrist surgery and they prefer him at 1B anyways. 

All that being sad, I'm not even saying they should've signed someone during the offseason. I've never said that (in this thread at least). I am saying today they have the option of signing Michael Conforto and plugging the hole that has clearly been opened up. Big picture hope is Larnach or Martin I'd guess. Lewis is the big picture hope at SS. But I'd much rather sign a guy with a career 124 wRC+ than hope Larnach figures it out. I'm a prospect guy, but they would never be my plan A if I could help it. Prospects take jobs when spots on the major league roster open up from injury or bad performance from veterans. Prospects as plan A means plan B is a worse prospect and plans C through Z are even worse prospects.

I don't see how signing Conforto to a 5 year deal messes with the big picture plan of Larnach/Lewis/Martin/other draft pick/signee either. Kepler's run as the everyday RFer is coming to an end. As I already stated Lewis is the SS plan since Correa is most likely 1 and done. Chances are 1 of Martin and Larnach don't make it. And by the time another draft pick is ready Conforto will be getting to the end of his deal. LF wasn't the biggest hole they had this offseason, but it was a hole. And now it is the biggest hole. Fill it with Conforto. No reason not to (other than money).

[gunnarthor]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why should they have assumed Larnach was going to hit? I'm a Larnach fan, but he was figured out at the big league level last year and if I'm trying to compete (as they stated they are) I'm not assuming he's figured it out yet when he went back down and was bad at AAA then ended the year hurt. AK was coming off wrist surgery and they prefer him at 1B anyways. 

All that being sad, I'm not even saying they should've signed someone during the offseason. I've never said that (in this thread at least). I am saying today they have the option of signing Michael Conforto and plugging the hole that has clearly been opened up. Big picture hope is Larnach or Martin I'd guess. Lewis is the big picture hope at SS. But I'd much rather sign a guy with a career 124 wRC+ than hope Larnach figures it out. I'm a prospect guy, but they would never be my plan A if I could help it. Prospects take jobs when spots on the major league roster open up from injury or bad performance from veterans. Prospects as plan A means plan B is a worse prospect and plans C through Z are even worse prospects.

I don't see how signing Conforto to a 5 year deal messes with the big picture plan of Larnach/Lewis/Martin/other draft pick/signee either. Kepler's run as the everyday RFer is coming to an end. As I already stated Lewis is the SS plan since Correa is most likely 1 and done. Chances are 1 of Martin and Larnach don't make it. And by the time another draft pick is ready Conforto will be getting to the end of his deal. LF wasn't the biggest hole they had this offseason, but it was a hole. And now it is the biggest hole. Fill it with Conforto. No reason not to (other than money).

I don't like this FO and I think they'll be gone at the end of the year but I can't say they made a mistake on planning that Kiriloff and Larnach take a step forward. This was a solid offense (if a bit unlucky) last year while they struggled. Using their very limited resources to block those guys would have been a mistake. Low budget teams need to see highly regarded prospects develop and they need to give them those chances. 

As for Conforto, he not only costs serious $$, he also would cost the team a draft pick. He was never a realisitic option. Smith, Ryan, Levine. We have 30 years of evidence that the Pohlad family isn't going to push the payroll. Even with the Correa signing, we're in the bottom half in payroll. I won't blame the FO for those restraints. They have to learn how to work better in them though.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't like this FO and I think they'll be gone at the end of the year but I can't say they made a mistake on planning that Kiriloff and Larnach take a step forward. This was a solid offense (if a bit unlucky) last year while they struggled. Using their very limited resources to block those guys would have been a mistake. Low budget teams need to see highly regarded prospects develop and they need to give them those chances. 

As for Conforto, he not only costs serious $$, he also would cost the team a draft pick. He was never a realisitic option. Smith, Ryan, Levine. We have 30 years of evidence that the Pohlad family isn't going to push the payroll. Even with the Correa signing, we're in the bottom half in payroll. I won't blame the FO for those restraints. They have to learn how to work better in them though.

Why would they assume Larnach was going to take a step forward? He ended the year very poorly in AAA and then got hurt. They had no contact with him all offseason. They were supposed to blindly assume he was getting better at recognizing major league breaking balls? The Twins aren't a low budget team, they're a mid budget team and 130M is plenty to build a team without having to blindly assume a prospect who just flopped at the majors is going to magically turn it around over the offseason. I have no problem counting on Kirilloff as he showed when he was healthy he could hit major league pitching very well.

Yes, it'd likely cost 15-20 a year for Conforto depending on how many years they went. They have Sano and Correa both coming off the books next year and Kepler and Gray the year after. I'm not blaming the FO for not signing him during the offseason as LF rightly wasn't their top priority, but if you can get him on a deal that doesn't pay him much this year since he's coming off an offseason injury and is missing time as we speak then have his salary jump for the next few years they can absolutely afford him and I'll sacrifice a 3rd round pick for a guy with a 124 wRC+ every day of the week. Plus, if the league and PA agree to an international draft by the deadline they don't lose a pick at all.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm guessing Conforto isn't signed because he's not really healthy, or some team would have signed him by now.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/ex-mets-outfielder-michael-conforto-not-close-to-signing-with-a-team#

[Vanimal46]

The irony is Rooker would have had runway to play LF now, making the trade with the Padres even more of a head scratcher. 

[gunnarthor]

53 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would they assume Larnach was going to take a step forward? He ended the year very poorly in AAA and then got hurt. They had no contact with him all offseason. They were supposed to blindly assume he was getting better at recognizing major league breaking balls? The Twins aren't a low budget team, they're a mid budget team and 130M is plenty to build a team without having to blindly assume a prospect who just flopped at the majors is going to magically turn it around over the offseason. I have no problem counting on Kirilloff as he showed when he was healthy he could hit major league pitching very well.

Yes, it'd likely cost 15-20 a year for Conforto depending on how many years they went. They have Sano and Correa both coming off the books next year and Kepler and Gray the year after. I'm not blaming the FO for not signing him during the offseason as LF rightly wasn't their top priority, but if you can get him on a deal that doesn't pay him much this year since he's coming off an offseason injury and is missing time as we speak then have his salary jump for the next few years they can absolutely afford him and I'll sacrifice a 3rd round pick for a guy with a 124 wRC+ every day of the week. Plus, if the league and PA agree to an international draft by the deadline they don't lose a pick at all.

Again, we don't set the payroll, the Pohlads do and it's low. Again. 17th in baseball right now. That's just something we have to accept. 

As for Larnach, I doubt the FO blindly assumed anything. I'm sure they had offseason plans for him, spoke with coaches and doctors, looked at metrics of other similar players, etc. But they invested a lot in him already (and Kiriloff. And Rooker and Vanimal noted). LF wasn't an obvious need. Conforto is a big resource requirement. I'm not surprised they didn't (and won't) go after him. He turned down a deal for 120 and is seeking a bigger deal than Castellonos' 5/100 deal. And he's apparently hurt, too. 

[ashbury]

Mrs Ash made this for me:

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

Again, we don't set the payroll, the Pohlads do and it's low. Again. 17th in baseball right now. That's just something we have to accept. 

As for Larnach, I doubt the FO blindly assumed anything. I'm sure they had offseason plans for him, spoke with coaches and doctors, looked at metrics of other similar players, etc. But they invested a lot in him already (and Kiriloff. And Rooker and Vanimal noted). LF wasn't an obvious need. Conforto is a big resource requirement. I'm not surprised they didn't (and won't) go after him. He turned down a deal for 120 and is seeking a bigger deal than Castellonos' 5/100 deal. And he's apparently hurt, too. 

I'm not arguing about the payroll. They could have done things differently if they'd been chasing him. But, again, I'm not suggesting they should've had him as a top priority during the offseason. I'm stating right now he is an option and it wouldn't cost 20M this season to bring him in.

The FO had no contact with Larnach or Kirilloff (or Rooker) for 99 days. They weren't talking to doctors about players they weren't even talking to. But I'm sure they had all of their medicals before the lockout started. Yes, they spoke with coaches and of course they looked at metrics, and those coaches and metrics told them Trevor Larnach wasn't ready for the major leagues when he was called up last year, took very limited ABs at St Paul after he got sent down and was then injured and the coaches and metrics were unable to provide any other information on him. So they went into the offseason believing Trevor Larnach was unable to hit major league pitching at the time, didn't talk to him for 99 days, saw him in spring training where they assessed he was still unable to hit major league pitching and sent him to AAA where he again got limited ABs before having to be recalled due to injury. Where in there do you think they thought Trevor Larnach was the answer in LF on a contending team? And what does having drafted and developed those players have to do with whether or not they should have been the plan for LF? Rooker made no case to be the everyday LFer so I'm not sure why he would be brought up at all. Kirilloff was ready, but got hurt. That happens. 

Michael Conforto WAS looking for a deal bigger than Castellanos' before he had a "bad" year, before he was tagged with a QO, before the lockout. before he was injured while training, and before the season started with him remaining unsigned. That 120M deal he turned down was offered to him before last season. He then went on to have a down year. Conforto has no leverage to force a team to sign him to a deal better than 5/100 right now and certainly won't have the leverage if he sits out an entire year. He's not currently going to cost more than that and wouldn't have had he signed after the lockout when he was hurt and coming off a down year with a QO attached to him. It will not cost 20M to sign Conforto for the rest of this year.