Sano Replay

[beterday]

After 4 games it is obvious I can't, or will not, get a real answer to why Sano is so predictable; it looks like I'm watching a replay.   I would love to have someone that knows how to hit explain to me the exact pattern of each at bat he has taken this year.  Not necessarily in this order, but most likely:  Swing and miss at a low outside breaking pitch, Watch a hitable pitch, waist high across the plate or 4" inches outside for a strike 2, then the never varying breaking ball low and outside.  It is hard to watch and I cannot understand why it happens over and over again with no change.  I played high school baseball and could never hit a curve, but this is different.  What's going on?

 

[Number3]

Maybe the reason he lost weight was so it would be easier to hit his weight. All I know is that this is make or break season for Sano and to a lesser extent and different reason Buxton as far as his injuries are concerned. Sano's sheer power and ability to hit the ball a very long way (when he does hit it) has overshadowed his lack of discipline and lack of reliability on a day to day basis. Today's home run centric analytics has saved him so far.

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, Number3 said:

Maybe the reason he lost weight was so it would be easier to hit his weight. All I know is that this is make or break season for Sano and to a lesser extent and different reason Buxton as far as his injuries are concerned. Sano's sheer power and ability to hit the ball a very long way (when he does hit it) has overshadowed his lack of discipline and lack of reliability on a day to day basis. Today's home run centric analytics has saved him so far.

He's actually a pretty darn disciplined hitter. His problem is missing balls in the zone, not chasing the ones out of the zone.

Chase Rate percentile in the league by year:
2016- 86th percentile (higher the better as this is saying he was in the top 15% of all MLB hitters in chasing pitches in 2016)
2017- 58th percentile
2019- 69th percentile
2020- 44th percentile (not good)
2021- 55th percentile
2022- 66th percentile (obviously very small sample size)

BB% percentile in the league by year:
2016- 83rd percentile
2017- 78th percentile
2019- 88th percentile
2020- 46th percentile (bad year)
2021- 78th percentile
2022- 85th percentile

Whiff% percentile in the league by year:
2016- 2nd percentile
2017- 1st percentile
2019- 1st percentile
2020- 1st percentile
2021- 2nd percentile
2022- 2nd percentile

So he is actually quite a disciplined hitter who takes a ton of walks, but swings and misses too much. But since he doesn't chase all that much the real culprit is his swings and misses in the zone. There's not enough data for this year yet, but last year he swung at 75% of pitches in the heart of the plate, 51% of the pitches on the corners, 19% on pitches clearly off the edge, and 2% on just horrible pitches. All of those numbers are better than league average (league average numbers were 74%, 53%, 22%, and 6%).

 

[tony&rodney]

Is it possible that Sano would be the beneficiary of a flat swing? He does have a good eye and is quite disciplined. The swing is a pretty severe upper cut that launches stupendous bombs and fly balls that reach unheard of heights. If his bat was in the zone longer there would be an improved ratio of contact. He sees so many outside pitches that right-field needs to become his friend, a skill Nelson Cruz mastered. A new swing approach (on plane) would be very difficult to implement within the season but Sano risks losing playing time  if he cannot shake the .200 average with so many empty at bats. I have been a huge fan of Miguel and believe he has worked hard to improve in many ways. The sample of one series is minuscule and not important to the bigger picture of a long season, but Sano seems to have devolved into an unlucky player who consistently has strikes called on him on pitches well out of the zone. Baseball is really difficult and the mental side of the game might be calling for a new swing path.  This is just a thought because Miguel hits the ball so hard when he makes contact that he would likely have a high BABIP even on ground balls, and mostly I feel for the guy as he slinks back to the dugout after another tough trip at the plate. 

[wsnydes]

16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Is it possible that Sano would be the beneficiary of a flat swing? He does have a good eye and is quite disciplined. The swing is a pretty severe upper cut that launches stupendous bombs and fly balls that reach unheard of heights. If his bat was in the zone longer there would be an improved ratio of contact. He sees so many outside pitches that right-field needs to become his friend, a skill Nelson Cruz mastered. A new swing approach (on plane) would be very difficult to implement within the season but Sano risks losing playing time  if he cannot shake the .200 average with so many empty at bats. I have been a huge fan of Miguel and believe he has worked hard to improve in many ways. The sample of one series is minuscule and not important to the bigger picture of a long season, but Sano seems to have devolved into an unlucky player who consistently has strikes called on him on pitches well out of the zone. Baseball is really difficult and the mental side of the game might be calling for a new swing path.  This is just a thought because Miguel hits the ball so hard when he makes contact that he would likely have a high BABIP even on ground balls, and mostly I feel for the guy as he slinks back to the dugout after another tough trip at the plate. 

I think this is a good point.  He hits the ball hard enough that he'd still hit the ball plenty far with a flatter swing.  And to all fields since it takes some of the timing out of the equation since his bat would be in the zone longer to get to some of the pitches he hasn't timed out correctly.

My question would be, is his miss % in the zone related to only to how long the bat is in the zone?  How much of that is him pulling off of the ball with his head, taking his eyes off of it in the process.  No idea how to measure that, but I've always wondered that with him.  When he makes good contact, you see his head and eyes following the ball out.  When he misses, he's looking into the 3B dugout.

[mikelink45]

Too early to judge this year.  There a lot of good major leaguers without a hit so far, but I do like the idea of a flattened swing.  He has so much power that he just needs to get it under control   The loss of weight is a good thing.   Let's check in a few weeks.  And by the way I am not a Sano fan, I have been frustrated too, but he is on the team so I hope something good begins to happen. 

[tangopudding]

Negative Sano takes are always hilarious to me. The idea that he has been terrible his whole career and he needs to do something completely different to have success.  I mean, no he doesn't. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, tangopudding said:

Negative Sano takes are always hilarious to me. The idea that he has been terrible his whole career and he needs to do something completely different to have success.  I mean, no he doesn't. 

He's a prime example of expectations leading to skewed views of a player. Plus the challenge of watching 1 team the whole year and living on the highs and lows of those players without really comparing their full season performance against the full season performance of the rest of the league. Not to mention confirmation bias by those who don't like the strikeouts so remember all the strikeouts and view him negatively because they're constantly saying "see he always strikes out!" I don't like the strikeouts either, by the way. I'm not a fan of 3 true outcome players, but he's a better player than many think. Certainly has some places he could improve. He was expected to be a superstar so people are disappointed with an above average hitter instead.

[Doctor Gast]

55 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Is it possible that Sano would be the beneficiary of a flat swing? He does have a good eye and is quite disciplined. The swing is a pretty severe upper cut that launches stupendous bombs and fly balls that reach unheard of heights. If his bat was in the zone longer there would be an improved ratio of contact. He sees so many outside pitches that right-field needs to become his friend, a skill Nelson Cruz mastered. A new swing approach (on plane) would be very difficult to implement within the season but Sano risks losing playing time  if he cannot shake the .200 average with so many empty at bats. I have been a huge fan of Miguel and believe he has worked hard to improve in many ways. The sample of one series is minuscule and not important to the bigger picture of a long season, but Sano seems to have devolved into an unlucky player who consistently has strikes called on him on pitches well out of the zone. Baseball is really difficult and the mental side of the game might be calling for a new swing path.  This is just a thought because Miguel hits the ball so hard when he makes contact that he would likely have a high BABIP even on ground balls, and mostly I feel for the guy as he slinks back to the dugout after another tough trip at the plate. 

I was encouraged at the end of last season that his swing seemed more compact. I haven't seen him hit yet so it's hard to say for sure but now maybe he has gone back to his old swing or maybe his problem is bigger than producing a more compact swing. Maybe a leveling of his launch angle which so many coaches try to ingrain elevation, would help. Or maybe it like Wsnyde said that hes pulling his head out and not seeing the ball. Whatever his problems are he needs to solve them quick because their are many that can take his place.

[snyder]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He's a prime example of expectations leading to skewed views of a player. Plus the challenge of watching 1 team the whole year and living on the highs and lows of those players without really comparing their full season performance against the full season performance of the rest of the league. Not to mention confirmation bias by those who don't like the strikeouts so remember all the strikeouts and view him negatively because they're constantly saying "see he always strikes out!" I don't like the strikeouts either, by the way. I'm not a fan of 3 true outcome players, but he's a better player than many think. Certainly has some places he could improve. He was expected to be a superstar so people are disappointed with an above average hitter instead.

He is not an above average hitter. His career average is .236. He has only hit above .250 twice in his seven year career, now eighth year. His slugging percentage only makes him an average hitter, at best. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

He's a prime example of expectations leading to skewed views of a player. Plus the challenge of watching 1 team the whole year and living on the highs and lows of those players without really comparing their full season performance against the full season performance of the rest of the league. Not to mention confirmation bias by those who don't like the strikeouts so remember all the strikeouts and view him negatively because they're constantly saying "see he always strikes out!" I don't like the strikeouts either, by the way. I'm not a fan of 3 true outcome players, but he's a better player than many think. Certainly has some places he could improve. He was expected to be a superstar so people are disappointed with an above average hitter instead.

Nice post. 

[gunnarthor]

6 minutes ago, snyder said:

He is not an above average hitter. His career average is .236. He has only hit above .250 twice in his seven year career, now eighth year. His slugging percentage only makes him an average hitter, at best. 

The league avg last year was .245/.316/.415, 100 OPS+. He posted a 112 OPS+. His career OPS+ is 118. For comparison, Cuddyer's was 113 (and only 106 through the same age). He's an above avg bat. He's had issues staying healthy and his defense is bad.

I think he's looked good in the couple games I've seen, leads the team in walks and has had some hard hits right at people. As others have noted, he strikes out way too much but his career babip is .327, which is really good. 16 PA is way too early to worry. He struggled so much early last year, and pitching really dominated MLB last year, that people don't really realize how strong his last four months were - .252/.330/.503. 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

If I was the hitting coach, I'm telling him to hit the ball to right every at bat.  That's when he's at his best.  He's so physically strong that he's going to hit homeruns to right field on a regular basis.  I'm guessing with that approach he'll accidentally run into pitches on the inside part of the plate that he'll crush to left.  All that being said, this is it for him here.  It's now or never. 

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, snyder said:

He is not an above average hitter. His career average is .236. He has only hit above .250 twice in his seven year career, now eighth year. His slugging percentage only makes him an average hitter, at best. 

You're certainly welcome to your opinion and to use batting average as your main decision maker on such topics, but the baseball industry disagrees with you.

[RpR]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You're certainly welcome to your opinion and to use batting average as your main decision maker on such topics, but the baseball industry disagrees with you.

I would bet a lot of money, baseball scouts and coaches disagree with 98.6 percent of the rhetoric  floating around here.

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, RpR said:

I would bet a lot of money, baseball scouts and coaches disagree with 98.6 percent of the rhetoric  floating around here.

Baseball scouts and coaches most definitely care more about OPS than batting average and I'll bet any amount of money you'd like on that. There are definitely some takes on some of these threads that scouts and coaches would disagree with, though. That is for sure.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, snyder said:

He is not an above average hitter. His career average is .236. He has only hit above .250 twice in his seven year career, now eighth year. His slugging percentage only makes him an average hitter, at best. 

wRC+ which puts weighted run contribution on a relative scale (100 is league average runs per plate appearance) is an attempt at comprehensive quality of a player’s hitting. Sano’s average is 117, so by that measure he is 17% above average. Super Star? No, but above average 

[GNess]

Good discussion on metrics which reflect performance. Sano is an above average hitter who happens to be somewhat slump prone and vulnerable to pitches away. That is a description of numerous MLB hitters who have reasonably long careers in the game. Hitting a baseball is difficult even for professional athletes.

 

 

[Number3]

Per chpetit19...."He's actually a pretty darn disciplined hitter. His problem is missing balls in the zone, not chasing the ones out of the zone. "

Ok he's disciplined he just can't hit. The analytics that favor the long ball are still why he remains in the league. Right now after 4 games his Mendoza Line is .001.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, Number3 said:

Per chpetit19...."He's actually a pretty darn disciplined hitter. His problem is missing balls in the zone, not chasing the ones out of the zone. "

Ok he's disciplined he just can't hit. The analytics that favor the long ball are still why he remains in the league. Right now after 4 games his Mendoza Line is .001.

You make it sound like guys who could hit 30+ bombs a year have never had careers until the nerds got on their computers and saved Sano's career. Harmon Killebrew wasn't exactly hitting .300 every year. Guys with power have been seen as valuable for the entire history of major league baseball. If going 0-fer for a 4 game stretch means someone is a bad hitter we're going to need new players every season because I'd guess every hitter in the history of baseball has gone 0-fer a 4 game series at 1 point or another. 

You don't have to like Sano. Not telling you you should. As I said before, I don't like 3 true outcome hitters. But not liking him or the style of hitter he is doesn't make him a bad hitter, and he'd remain in the league no matter what era he was playing in. Mark McGwire also debuted at the age of 22 and was a .247 hitter through his age 28 season. Sano was a .238 hitter through his age 28 season. McGwire slugged .503 and Sano has slugged .491. Players who hit for power have always been looked at fondly. Shoot, Adam Dunn had a 14 year career hitting .237 in the early 2000s before the "analytics" took over.

[Puckett34]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You make it sound like guys who could hit 30+ bombs a year have never had careers until the nerds got on their computers and saved Sano's career. Harmon Killebrew wasn't exactly hitting .300 every year. Guys with power have been seen as valuable for the entire history of major league baseball. If going 0-fer for a 4 game stretch means someone is a bad hitter we're going to need new players every season because I'd guess every hitter in the history of baseball has gone 0-fer a 4 game series at 1 point or another. 

You don't have to like Sano. Not telling you you should. As I said before, I don't like 3 true outcome hitters. But not liking him or the style of hitter he is doesn't make him a bad hitter, and he'd remain in the league no matter what era he was playing in. Mark McGwire also debuted at the age of 22 and was a .247 hitter through his age 28 season. Sano was a .238 hitter through his age 28 season. McGwire slugged .503 and Sano has slugged .491. Players who hit for power have always been looked at fondly. Shoot, Adam Dunn had a 14 year career hitting .237 in the early 2000s before the "analytics" took over.

I think the the comparisons to Adam Dunn are correct. I think where they end is that Dunn would at least usually walk 90+ times a season to bring that OBP up.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Puckett34 said:

I think the the comparisons to Adam Dunn are correct. I think where they end is that Dunn would at least usually walk 90+ times a season to bring that OBP up.

Sano is in the top 15-20% of major league players basically every year in walk percentage. He's not on Dunn's level, but he's taking a solid number of walks. I don't love him and wouldn't hesitate to trade him in the right package if I were the FO, but the talk of him being some black hole in the lineup is wrong. He's absolutely a weapon when he's hitting in the 6,7,8 range of a lineup.

[Hacktheknife]

I do a lot of Sano "defending" when the conversation turns to him. If you look at his 162 numbers, its hard not to value him as a hitter. BUT I also cannot figure out why his pitch recognition does not improve especially as it relates to the low away and out of the zone slop he is so vulnerable to. I also cant help but wonder where his numbers go if he could eliminate that vulnerability. 

[AKTwins]

I’m less worried about the slow start by Sano (if you want to call it that after 4 games) than other years.  He scalded a ball yesterday but it was to centerfield.  Just the nature of baseball, you can connect but it goes directly at someone.  Some other things to look at with him, he is currently 9th in the AL in pitches per plate appearance at 4.56.  While that doesn’t correlate into better offense it does show his patience and will be a tough out.

[Brandon]

Remember Dave Kingman.  That is all.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Sano is in the top 15-20% of major league players basically every year in walk percentage. He's not on Dunn's level, but he's taking a solid number of walks. I don't love him and wouldn't hesitate to trade him in the right package if I were the FO, but the talk of him being some black hole in the lineup is wrong. He's absolutely a weapon when he's hitting in the 6,7,8 range of a lineup.

Sano .236 avg, .328 obp, .488 slg, 117 wRC+
 

Dunn .237 avg, .364 obp, .490 slg, 123 wRC+
 

Sano might as well be a statistical clone of Adam Dunn. I’m not a Sano “apologist”, I’m not even a particular fan of his. I’m just pointing out that Sano does bring value with his bat over the season, he’s not some boat anchor weighing the team down (hitting-wise).

there is more than one way to hit.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Not defending him (maybe i am) but i think he's looked good at 1B this season.....slimming down has helped.

[Jham]

The upper cut produces lots of top spin. He hooks balls foul that he could keep fair by just pulling in his hands. Agree that an up the middle and away approach boosts his numbers including wiff rate and lowers k's by keeping balls in play. Generating back spin with swing plane was a big thing a few years back. I know Cruz really worked with him on going oppo before he was traded. He's still one of my favorite players, but his attitude is stubborn for good or bad.

[Puckett34]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Sano is in the top 15-20% of major league players basically every year in walk percentage. He's not on Dunn's level, but he's taking a solid number of walks. I don't love him and wouldn't hesitate to trade him in the right package if I were the FO, but the talk of him being some black hole in the lineup is wrong. He's absolutely a weapon when he's hitting in the 6,7,8 range of a lineup.

I'm sorry. I wasn't trying to say that Sano is some dearth of offensive production. He absolutely has value offensively, especially in the lower 1/3 of the lineup.

 

His pendulum swings so much in both directions that he can be quite the polarizing player.  Especially when you know what he's capable of.  He can carry a team for 10-15 games just as easily as he can go 3-35.   

[snyder]

On 4/12/2022 at 11:46 AM, chpettit19 said:

You're certainly welcome to your opinion and to use batting average as your main decision maker on such topics, but the baseball industry disagrees with you.

I'm not saying he is terrible and should be batting 8th just to hide him. With his power, Sano should be hitting 4th or 5th in the lineup everyday. But his low average and high Ks end up pushing him to the back half of the lineup. I have a hard time calling some one that even slides out of his usual 6th spot in the lineup to the 7th spot sometimes an above average hitter. Those spots of the line-up are for the average hitters