Week in Review: Wild Opening Weekend at Target Field

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins opened their season with a pair of close losses that could've easily gone the other way. Then they busted out the power bats with a dazzling offensive display in Sunday's lopsided win. 

It was an altogether encouraging weekend that saw newcomers and stars shining brightly. Let's break down the action.

Last Week's Game Recaps:

Game 1 | SEA 2, MIN 1: Robbie Ray Silences Twins Bats in Opener
Game 2 | SEA 4, MIN 3: Duffey's Blown Save Spoils Buxton Heroics
Game 3 | MIN 10, SEA 4: Power Bats Detonate in Blowout Win

Weekly Snapshot: Fri, 4/8 through Sun, 4/10
***
Record Last Week: 1-2 (Overall: 1-2)
Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +4)
Standing: T-2nd Place in AL Central (1.0 GB)

NEWS & NOTES

The Twins came into this 2022 season with a remarkably clean bill of health (knocks on wood). Randy Dobnak and Cody Stashak both opened on the injured list, but neither was a key part of the team's plans. For the most part everyone seems to be in good shape, including some pitchers who loomed as question marks coming in.

Let's hope this trend continues. Early-season injury woes played a huge role in tanking the '21 season in April and May.

HIGHLIGHTS

The new guys are making strong first impressions. In Friday's season opener, Gio Urshela put the Twins on the board for the first time in 2022 with a solo homer off of Robbie Ray. On Saturday, pitching staff newcomers Sonny Gray, Joe Smith and Jharel Cotton combined to allow two runs over 6 ⅔ innings. Emilio Pagán added a scoreless frame with two strikeouts in his Twins debut on Sunday.

Gary Sánchez came just a few feet short of introducing himself to fans with a walk-off home run on Friday, but he didn't miss two days later when he launched a first-inning grand slam to the third deck, opening up a huge early lead for the Twins.

Minnesota's flashiest new addition, Carlos Correa, has already shown what he can do with the bat, launching a 458-foot moonshot as part of Sunday's homer barrage, and we've also seen his defensive prowess in action several times. He played a key role in the weekend's finest highlight in the field – a perfect relay throw to gun down the go-ahead run at home plate on Sunday afternoon.

As impressive as all these acquisitions were, one thing is clear: It's Byron Buxton's world, and everyone else is just living in it. The newly locked up face of the franchise started his season with a brief quiet spell, going hitless in his first seven at-bats, and then rattled off three straight home runs.

The first of them, a go-ahead two-run homer in the eighth inning on Saturday night, should've lifted the team to victory. It was another entry in a shocking and depressing saga of Twins teams spoiling signature Buxton moments, but watching him scream into the dugout after unloading on that pitch was awesome nonetheless. 

Buxton's two dingers on Sunday helped set the tone for a bomba breakout, with the Twins piling up five homers in a route of the Mariners. But the explosiveness this weekend wasn't limited to the plate. Jhoan Duran made his big-league debut on the mound in Friday's opener, and he lived up to the billing.

The 24-year-old showed remarkable poise, allowing the first two batters he faced to reach base on singles before bearing down and striking out four straight, all swinging. He finished with two scoreless innings, keeping the deficit at one and giving the Twins a chance at a late comeback. If Duran can stay healthy he's going to be a pivotal weapon at the back of this bullpen, that's clear.

LOWLIGHTS

It didn't take long for the Twins to feel the loss of their best reliever. On Saturday, a dramatic late home run gave Minnesota a one-run lead going into the ninth. In a spot where he would've normally loved to go to his longtime bullpen stalwart Taylor Rogers, Rocco Baldelli turned instead to his next most-tenured reliever. It didn't go well.

Making his season debut, Duffey quickly coughed up the lead, allowing two runs on three hits. He frankly looked terrible, inducing just one swinging strike on 18 pitches. The blown save felt very familiar to last year's Alex Colomé experience, not just in terms of results, but even stylistically: ugly pitches out over the plate in key spots. 

Duffey has a lost a ton of juice since his peak in 2019, when he was one of the league's most dominant relievers. Back then he averaged 94 MPH with his fastball; on Saturday, he maxed out at 93.5 and usually worked in the 91-92 range. His mid-80s knuckle curve didn't looked very sharp.

So far this has all the makings of another step downward in Duffey's regression. If it continues, hopefully Baldelli takes notice and adjusts the bullpen hierarchy accordingly. Duffey should not be getting critical high-leverage looks merely because of his experience and tenure. There are much better arms in this pen right now. 

Offensively, it's hard to complain much about a weekend that saw the Twins tally 14 runs with nine homers in three games, but once again this lineup is looking a bit too dependent on the long ball for run-scoring. It'd be nice to see a bit more rally action from, and that'll require some of the laggards to get going. Those include Alex Kirilloff (0-for-11) and Miguel Sanó (0-for-10). 

TRENDING STORYLINE

The Twins bench is in flux. The team chose to carry Gilberto Celestino as fourth outfielder out of camp, but this is clearly a temporary arrangement. There's little doubt the team is angling for free agent Justin Upton, who cleared waivers over the weekend after being released by the Angels in late spring. 

Upton is a far cry from the star commodity of his heyday, but he's a nice fit on this Twins roster as an experienced corner outfielder who can still mash left-handed pitching. Although he struggled overall last year with a .705 OPS, Upton did slash .22/.355/.483 against lefties and has an .852 career OPS against them. 

He would also add ANOTHER first overall draft pick to an organization that already has Correa, Tim Beckham and Royce Lewis on hand.

The Twins certainly aren't alone in their interest in Upton, now that he's free from his big contract in LA. I suspect we'll find out one way or another by early this week. If the team is unable to land the veteran, they'll likely swap out Celestino for Kyle Garlick, which would require a 40-man move.

LOOKING AHEAD

A tough week lies ahead for the Twins, who will wrap up their four-game series against Seattle on Monday before welcoming the star-studded Los Angeles Dodgers to Target Field for a short midweek series. From there, it's a day off on Thursday followed by a trip to Fenway for four games against the Red Sox. 

Over the next three days, we'll get a look at the back half of Minnesota's rebuilt rotation, with new additions Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and Chris Paddack starting in consecutive games. It'll be interesting to see where Rocco goes with the rotation after that. 

MONDAY, 4/11: MARINERS @ TWINS – RHP Chris Flexen v. RHP Dylan Bundy
TUESDAY, 4/12: DODGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Chris Archer
WEDNESDAY, 4/13: DODGERS @ TWINS – RHP Walker Buehler v. RHP Chris Paddack
FRIDAY, 4/15: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Nick Pivetta
SATURDAY, 4/16: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Tanner Houck
SUNDAY, 4/17: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Michael Wacha

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[KirbyHawk75]

Tough schedule ahead.  

[mikelink45]

How about giving Celestino some ABs to see if he should stay.  I think we could give him a few of Kiriloff's right now.

The only starter to get a win was the one who did the worst job and the BP had everyone looking good except for Duffey and Rocco needs to see this and work to help Duffey get back or stop giving him good innings. 

Right now it looks like Jake Cave is the OF that is most likely to come up, not Garlick.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Right now it looks like Jake Cave is the OF that is most likely to come up, not Garlick.

Based on... ? A handful of good games at Triple-A? I assure you, the Twins are looking for a RH complement to Kirilloff and Kepler in the corner OF spots. Cave is not a roster fit at the moment.

[RaoulDuke]

3 games in the pitching has looked pretty good. Ryan, Gray, Ober got hit some but overall pitched well.  Duran and Alcala have the potential to be major weapons out of the pen.

Urshela and Sanchez mashing the lefties/ Arraez giving righties fits  is great to see.

Buxton is a monster.  Correa is a monster.  This is an insane pairing of talent at the two most important positions.

[PopRiveter]

Great series wrap. You captured it all just right. 
I miss Taylor Rogers, but this is a team that is very easy to get excited about.

 

[mikelink45]

7 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Based on... ? A handful of good games at Triple-A? I assure you, the Twins are looking for a RH complement to Kirilloff and Kepler in the corner OF spots. Cave is not a roster fit at the moment.

I know he is not on the roster, but the Cave love affair and his hot bat still have me thinking he will be up again.

[Blyleven2011]

I would like to see more consecutive back to back hits  ( singles and doubles ) for alittle more excitement to score some run .....

Twins have played 3 games , have scored 14 runs , 
Average of 4 1/2 per game ...
Twins have 18 hits , 8 singles , only 1 double  and 9 homers in 3 games  ....
7 homers have been solos  and 2 have had a runner or more  ,,, 13 runs have scored on the homer  , 1 by a hit  ...

Not getting on base enough  , walks 9 ,, averaging 3 per game ,
Strikeouts 28 , averaging 9 per game..

Sano and kiriloff have played all 3 games and do not have a hit yet  ...

The production level has been down by all the solo homers the twins continue to hit,  a solo homer is not a game changer ... clutch hitting is !!!

It's regular season now so wins and losses count  , our manager should realize every win counts even early on ..

[KFEY93]

Luckily there will be no baseball on Tuesday or Wednesday with the weather coming in. That whole series gets rescheduled or all the games will be played in LA or do you think there will be just a one day double header in MN later in the year? Either way Twins wont be playing ball until Thursday this week after today. 

[SockNet]

I appreciate balance but I'd rather be too dependant on the long ball and have the chance to put up multiple runs w/ one swing than needing to string together 15 hits to score one which was a hallmark of pre-Baldelli teams.

[LastOnePicked]

I did not think this was a great start. Ober and Ryan do not look good, and betting on magical recoveries for Bundy, Paddack and Archer seems risky. Manea might well have been the better move, and Rogers could have been kept, too. We'll see, but there were more 2021 memories this week than I wanted. 

That said, thank God Byron Buxton is a Minnesota Twin. This might be his year. Hopefully the FO didn't blow it with poor planning and Rocco won't blow it with terrible bullpen decisions.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, KFEY93 said:

Luckily there will be no baseball on Tuesday or Wednesday with the weather coming in. That whole series gets rescheduled or all the games will be played in LA or do you think there will be just a one day double header in MN later in the year? Either way Twins wont be playing ball until Thursday this week after today. 

Tuesday might get rained out. Highly doubtful on Wednesday. 

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I would like to see more consecutive back to back hits  ( singles and doubles ) for alittle more excitement to score some run .....

Twins have played 3 games , have scored 14 runs , 
Average of 4 1/2 per game ...
Twins have 18 hits , 8 singles , only 1 double  and 9 homers in 3 games  ....
7 homers have been solos  and 2 have had a runner or more  ,,, 13 runs have scored on the homer  , 1 by a hit  ...

Not getting on base enough  , walks 9 ,, averaging 3 per game ,
Strikeouts 28 , averaging 9 per game..

Sano and kiriloff have played all 3 games and do not have a hit yet  ...

The production level has been down by all the solo homers the twins continue to hit,  a solo homer is not a game changer ... clutch hitting is !!!

It's regular season now so wins and losses count  , our manager should realize every win counts even early on ..

Great assessment!  I have been saying since '19 that home runs are great, and when they come we win.  But when they don't.........  I have been paying attention to our stats for some years now, and the one thing that stands out year in and year out all over baseball is this:  the percentage of wins a team has when scoring 3 runs or less and the percentage when they score 4 or more.  This series we have averaged 4 1/2, as you say, but scored 3 or less 2 of the three and we are 1 and 2.  Last year we scored 3 or less in slightly over 35% of our games and we all know what our record was.  Yet we finished 2nd in home runs and 5th in slugging percentage.  None of that matters when you finish 8th and 9th in OBP and BA, because no one is on when you slug.  We will not bunt, we will not hit and run, we run the bases occasionally, but not consistently.  We put no added pressure on the defense, only on the pitcher to keep the ball in the park.  You are dead on about the walk to strike out ratio, and home runs being our sole offense.  As much as we all love Buxton, look at him as well.  3 for 12.  All 3 hits home runs.  In his own words he looks to drive the ball when he is at the plate.  He uses none of his other skills to get on base and manufacture runs.  And he will never be asked to, any more than Kepler will be told to bunt the shift away or Sano will stop striking out looking for the home run.  

I know it is only 3 games, and I am hoping as much as anyone.  But I couldn't agree with you more about your offense assessment.  It goes back a lot farther than opening day.  And I sure hope the pitching turns around as well; starters have gone 13.2 innings and relievers 13.1.  Not a good ratio and not a sustainable one once the rosters get reduced.  Still lots of issues we need to look at and solve.  Let's hope the solutions come fast.  

[Vanimal46]

With the exception of Duffey’s duffed 9th inning, the bullpen has looked a lot better than expected. I’m very excited about Duran and think he’ll fill the Rogers role as high leverage part time closer very soon. 

I’m willing to sacrifice whatever is needed to the baseball gods so Buxton plays over 120 games this year. If he does, we get the pleasure of watching a top 5 MVP candidate this year. 

[KFEY93]

5 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Tuesday might get rained out. Highly doubtful on Wednesday. 

If Tuesday was a 1pm game they could get it in probably but its a night game. Neither will happen I imagine.