One Breakout Prospect for Each Twins Affiliate

[Cody Christie]

Many of Minnesota's minor league affiliates began their 2022 seasons this week, which can get fans excited about the organization's future. Here is one potential breakout prospect for each minor league affiliate.

Minor league rosters are fluid, and many of the players below will play at multiple levels during the 2022 campaign. Jose Miranda was the farm system's breakout prospect last season, but many in the organization predicted that improvements were imminent. So, who are some players to follow at each level to start the year?

Triple-A: Royce Lewis, SS
Minnesota stacked the Triple-A roster with some of the team's top prospects, including Jordan Balazovic, Cole Sands, and Jose Miranda. For good reasons, many prospect rankings have dropped Lewis. Baseball America dropped him 53 spots, MLB Pipeline dropped him 29 spots, and Baseball Prospectus took him out of their top-100. Entering the 2022 season, Lewis hadn't seen game action since the 2019 Arizona Fall League. His speed is one of his best tools, and there were questions about how much his knee surgery would impact this skill. Lewis is looking to prove his doubters wrong this season and put his name back into the conversation as one of baseball's best prospects. 

Double-A: Simeon Woods Richardson, SP
Austin Martin, Matt Canterino, and Matt Wallner are all on the Wichita roster, but Woods Richardson is poised to breakout. Toronto and Minnesota were aggressive with Woods Richardson last season as he made 15 appearances at the Double-A level last season as a 20-year-old. He was over 4.5 years younger than the average age of the competition at his level, and he only had four at-bats where he faced a younger batter. He will still be young for Double-A in his first full season in the Twins organization, but now he has had the opportunity to get out some of the kinks. Also, he is in his third organization since the start of the 2018 season. Staying at a level and getting used to a coaching staff can help him thrive in 2022.

High-A: Yunior Severino, IF
Cedar Rapids has a loaded roster with plenty of players with breakout potential. Aaron Sabato, Cade Povich, and Alerick Soularie will all look to make their mark this season. Severino is looking to have his first professional season with 100+ games, which has the potential to result in some strong numbers. Last season, he raised his OPS from .740 at Low-A to .907 at High-A. In 35 games with Cedar Rapids, he hit .321/.414/.493 (.907) with 16 extra-base hits. He struck out 125 times in 98 games, so that will be a number to watch. He ended the year with 29 doubles, and if a few more of those balls make it over the fence, he suddenly looks like a very intriguing prospect. 

Low-A: Steve Hajjar, SP
In Fort Myers, there is a collection of young players with plenty of upside, including Noah Miller, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Keoni Cavaco. Hajjar's college experience means he has the chance to dominate in the lower levels of the minors. He has the potential to move quickly from Low-A to High-A and a chance of reaching Double-A by the season's end. There's no reason to rush him, but the Twins have already helped him make some promising mechanical adjustments. During the 2021 college season, his fastball averaged 90 mph, but the Twins have helped him add a little more velocity. He's also focused on his slider to try and help him improve against left-handed batters. Minnesota has a lot of young pitchers ready to debut this season, but Hajjar is a solid piece to have waiting in the wings for the years ahead. 

Which of these players is poised to breakout? Do you have other picks? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Doctor Gast]

I really like our prospects in AAA, AA and low A, I'm not as high on high A. I'm with you in Lewis and Woods as break outs but I'm higher on N. Miller and E Rod than Hajjar. But great article.

[DocBauer]

A nice list and I can't disagree with any of your choices, but man, at each stop there some very good choices to sort through. I'm going to cheat and go with a pitcher and position player.

AAA: I absolutely agree with Lewis. I'm going with Balazovic for the pitcher, just ahead of Winded and Duran as both have "graduated", at least temporarily, to MLB and I'm not sure that both don't spend a lot of 2022 with the Twins.

AA: Martin showed some very good things for a rookie missing 2020 and jumping straight to AA. He showed hit and OB ability that is very intriguing. But there is so much room to hit even better and to add power, with a healthy wrist and some adjustments. To me, it's a virtual tie between SWR and Canterino for breakout pitcher. Taking nothing from the super talented SWR, I'm going with the older Canterino being healthy and charging up the system and prospect rankings.

A+: I am so very tempted to also select Severino as my player pick. The talent is there, and his huge jump after jumping from Ft Myers tells me he's ready to take the next step. But I can't ignore the bat and power of 3B/1B Encarnacion-Strand. In a toss-up, I'm going with CES. Povich just has to be my choice for breakout pitcher here.

A-: I am also going to jump on the Hajjar bandwagon. Just makes too much sense that he's the guy. But position player wise, how do you pick from Rodriguez, Miller, Rosario and even Cavaco? Healthy and a year of maturity, Cavaco could surprise. No matter how talented and no matter all the initial glowing reports on Miller, he's a rookie. Rosario was the short season top player last year. But I am going to go with Rodriguez. His second year state-side and "used" to pro ball and Ft Myers now, he's my breakout position player.

[wsnydes]

I'm really looking for Lewis and SWR have good years.  That would be huge for this franchise.  Nice to see them highlighted here.

[jrod23]

Knee jerk, but not really.  Encarnacion-Strand has literally picked up where he left off last year.  Same thing he did transitioning from Oklahoma St. to Fort Myers.  He's flat out a hitter w/pop.  I'm excited to see this guy climb through the ranks.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Royce “Sticky Fingers” Lewis… keep swiping those bags!

[old nurse]

It is not really a breakout if by position that you were drafted in or by signing bonus that is what was expected to happen

[terrydactyls]

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

It is not really a breakout if by position that you were drafted in or by signing bonus that is what was expected to happen

Can't you just have some fun with the article and play along?

[Major League Ready]

It would be huge for this franchise if Lewis fulfills his potential as a SS.  Let's be realistic.  Correa is going to opt out.  It would be great if they got a huge return for him at the deadline and Lewis takes over post deadline. 

I want to add "break-out at the MLB level catagory.  Duran and Paddack stepping up could really change the fate of this franchise.  My dream scenario is that Duran and Paddock are so ood this year that next year our starting rotation is Duran / Paddack / Gray / Winder / Ryan with Balazovic / Canterino and SWR knocking on the door.

[PatPfund]

Great article, because draft position and bonus mean nothing once you run out on the field. It's play that breaks you out.

Though I'd certainly have Encarnacio-Strand on the Kernels list somewhere; sure he can't hit .900 with 30% of ABs leaving the yard all year, but he's coming off a .391 (short) first year in pro ball, and still mashing to open 2022. Plus, he's a college player, so if he keeps it up, I can see him moving up pretty quickly.

[old nurse]

19 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Great article, because draft position and bonus mean nothing once you run out on the field. It's play that breaks you out.

Though I'd certainly have Encarnacio-Strand on the Kernels list somewhere; sure he can't hit .900 with 30% of ABs leaving the yard all year, but he's coming off a .391 (short) first year in pro ball, and still mashing to open 2022. Plus, he's a college player, so if he keeps it up, I can see him moving up pretty quickly.

Draft position should mean someone thinks you have more talent than the next player. There have been people who look at such statistics. The order in which a player is drafted must matter or be important otherwise there would be no tanking. Drafting position comes into play with prospect ranking. Kohl Stewart and Nick Gordon come to mind. If you have no expectations of a player once signed, that is what it is but it does not appear to be the way the world works, otherwise there would be no player ever labeled a bust

[old nurse]

20 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Can't you just have some fun with the article and play along?

Back in the day a breakout player was one that exceeded expectations. Perhaps it has become a world of no expectations. 

Having too much fun here gets somebody else butt hurt, just saying. 

[PatPfund]

On 4/11/2022 at 5:50 AM, old nurse said:

Draft position should mean someone thinks you have more talent than the next player. There have been people who look at such statistics. The order in which a player is drafted must matter or be important otherwise there would be no tanking. Drafting position comes into play with prospect ranking. Kohl Stewart and Nick Gordon come to mind. If you have no expectations of a player once signed, that is what it is but it does not appear to be the way the world works, otherwise there would be no player ever labeled a bust

I disagree that drafts and bonuses (expectation-based) have anything to do with actual breakout players (who perform to high levels after being drafted/signed) except you hope a higher percentage of the first become the second. Kohl Stewart is an excellent example. High pick, high expectations, never broke out at any level and is out of baseball.

This is baseball, not football or basketball. A far higher level of top picks don't pan out in this sport than you see in other sports, so tracking players primed for breakout is well worth the effort. And again breakout is actuality not expectation. Though predicting breakout is expectation of actuality. Still... fun for most of us to think about, though clearly not your cup of tea.

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, PatPfund said:

I disagree that drafts and bonuses (expectation-based) have anything to do with actual breakout players (who perform to high levels after being drafted/signed) except you hope a higher percentage of the first become the second. Kohl Stewart is an excellent example. High pick, high expectations, never broke out at any level and is out of baseball.

This is baseball, not football or basketball. A far higher level of top picks don't pan out in this sport than you see in other sports, so tracking players primed for breakout is well worth the effort. And again breakout is actuality not expectation. Though predicting breakout is expectation of actuality. Still... fun for most of us to think about, though clearly not your cup of tea.

The definition of breakout player aliased used to be the rise of a player that was unexpected. .  Yes high picks fail. That is expected. It is NoOT unexpected that theta have success. If you do not understand that difference it is what it is.