So... Why Trade Taylor Rogers?

[Original_JB]

16 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Their actions have been clear since the trade deadline last year.  They are focused on long-term success built around homegrown pitching or moves like trading 1 year of a RP for 3 years of a SP.  This should not be surprising given this is what the strategy Cleveland employed with great success. Adding Correa was not about going for it this year.  There is an alternative of putting a good product on the field while building a contender.  Correa is almost certainly gone next year but he will bring great prospects when they trade him at the deadline.  (Two birds / one stone)  The off-season resulted in adding Buxton for the next seven years, Paddack for 3 and Pagen for 2.  They also shed Donaldson's 21.75M in 2023 and $16M in 2024 or the $8M buyout in 2024.  This money can now be used on long-terms assets instead of a player highly likely to decline not to mention we have Miranda ready to replace him.  So, the comparison is Donaldson vs Miranda (next year) plus $21.75M spent elsewhere. Of course, they also picked up a couple prospects.  This team simply was not positioned to contend and I didn't ever get the impression they were going to attempt to build a true contender this year.  That would have been incompetent.

We need a couple of the prospects to step up this year but the outlook for 23 and beyond improved greatly this off-season.  

Donaldson (known quantity) vs. Miranda (unknown quantity) + "nada". I will never assume the Twins are committed to spending to a certain level. When Correa walks the end of this season, you really think they're 'committed' to spending that $30M on another $30M/yr player?

[Major League Ready]

43 minutes ago, Original_JB said:

Donaldson (known quantity) vs. Miranda (unknown quantity) + "nada". I will never assume the Twins are committed to spending to a certain level. When Correa walks the end of this season, you really think they're 'committed' to spending that $30M on another $30M/yr player?

I would take Miranda next year and the $21.75M to spend elsewhere and it's not remotely close.  It would not be close even if we did not have Miranda.  I would take Arraez at 3B and the 21.75M next year too.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Their actions have been clear since the trade deadline last year.  They are focused on long-term success built around homegrown pitching or moves like trading 1 year of a RP for 3 years of a SP.  This should not be surprising given this is what the strategy Cleveland employed with great success. Adding Correa was not about going for it this year.  There is an alternative of putting a good product on the field while building a contender.  Correa is almost certainly gone next year but he will bring great prospects when they trade him at the deadline.  (Two birds / one stone)  The off-season resulted in adding Buxton for the next seven years, Paddack for 3 and Pagen for 2.  They also shed Donaldson's 21.75M in 2023 and $16M in 2024 or the $8M buyout in 2024.  This money can now be used on long-terms assets instead of a player highly likely to decline not to mention we have Miranda ready to replace him.  So, the comparison is Donaldson vs Miranda (next year) plus $21.75M spent elsewhere. Of course, they also picked up a couple prospects.  This team simply was not positioned to contend and I didn't ever get the impression they were going to attempt to build a true contender this year.  That would have been incompetent.

We need a couple of the prospects to step up this year but the outlook for 23 and beyond improved greatly this off-season.  

I agree with what you are saying except for one small point. 

I think the Twins can contend this year and I think the front office thinks that as well.

But Yeah, they are clearly hedging their bets by getting ready for 2023 at the same time.  

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Original_JB said:

Donaldson (known quantity) vs. Miranda (unknown quantity) + "nada". I will never assume the Twins are committed to spending to a certain level. When Correa walks the end of this season, you really think they're 'committed' to spending that $30M on another $30M/yr player?

It's smart to never assume that the Twins are committed to spending to a certain level because it will always depend on what is needed and what is available. 

However... there does seem to be semblance of a general payroll guideline that they budget for and they will be under it and therefore no reason to assume that they won't spend the Correa money, If Correa does leave. 

 

 

[Mark G]

"Another core value of the Falvine era, the Twins simply don’t value relief pitchers highly. And to be honest, they probably shouldn’t. Relievers often burn bright for a few years before fading away. We see it year after year whether it’s Alex Colomé just stinking it up out of nowhere or Trevor Rosenthal succumbing to injury. Pitchers as a whole are always risky, but historically speaking relievers are particularly fickle."

While I agree with this assessment, I seem to remember this FO picking up free agents and waiver claims well into their 30's quite often, hoping they can have one more good season.  How is 31 old, then?  I don't believe for a New York minute that it had anything to do with age, but more likely dollars and control.  To get the control, we would have to cough up the dollars, and we weren't going to, so the trade was inevitable.  

[Riverbrian]

This trade was about value. The Twins got more value in this deal. 

Going forward, the Twins have the opportunity of further increasing the value of Paddack, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Duran and Balazovic.

Starting pitching is valued higher than perhaps any other position. If you are going to collect bodies... this is where you collect them.   

We have pitching depth this year. We didn't have pitching depth last year and it showed. Let's see who rises to the occasion... Let's see who doesn't but we shouldn't have to sit through 90 innings of Shoemaker type performance this year.  

The bullpen will either be good, bad or in between with or without Rogers. Excess pitching that can throw multiple innings is going to play a major role in the bullpen this year.  

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I would take Miranda next year and the $21.75M to spend elsewhere and it's not remotely close.  It would not be close even if we did not have Miranda.  I would take Arraez at 3B and the 21.75M next year too.

Jose Miranda? I'm really bullish on his bat and am a believer in his potential to be the full time third baseman next year and I hope he takes the position by June 1 this year. 

My thinking is that a roster to win the AL Central this year could have been accomplished for $110 million and a good team could also be quite strong for around $80 million. The Twins could easily go to $150 million this year and make a strong profit. The decision rests on the specific goals for a team.

The savings accomplished by the jettison of JD was about $6-7 million this year and less for next year unless the Twins release/trade both Sanchez and Urshela, which seems expected. While I agree with your optimism concerning Miranda, the Twins have not been players for large contracts thus the money saved seems pretty irrelevant. The Twins could have easily rostered both JD and Correa. The oddity, for me, is that a number of media people as well as Twins Daily posters have referenced or suggested that Donaldson was traded because of internal issues with his personality. I have no knowledge about that.

The Twins have gone well past the roster budget suggested as a ceiling by most folks on Twins Daily and the club is being rebuilt continually in the mold desired by the current front office. The final judgment on whether this is effective is made customers (attendance and viewership numbers) and the won-loss record. I don't believe we need to worry about the money the Twins make or spend. I'm fine with a big profit for JP and I'm fine with JD/CC making big money too. Money aside, who would you choose to play this season at third base - JD or Arraez or Urshela or Miranda? An argument can certainly be made for Jose Miranda because injuries happen and he seems the most likely to play the full slate of games. 

 

[notoriousgod71]

To everyone saying that relievers are volatile, Rogers is the least volatile player involved in this trade.

 

[Karbo]

Wow, you would think by reading some of these comments that Rogers could single handidly win us a championship. Last time I checked the normal roster size is 26. The normal number of games to be played is 162. Thats alot of starts for pitchers to make. In the pre-trade rotation we had 2 guys that had little to next to no experience in the majors as the starters. 1 other guy that has hardly pitched in the last 2 years, and 1 guy that IMO has pretty much stunk for all but 1 of the last few years. That leaves 1 starter that has any kind of proven track record, and the number of innings pitched for him doesn't impress me either. We needed at least another starter that has some experience in the majors. I hate to lose Rogers too, but IMO, it sure isn't as bad as some of the other readers feel it is. I'd be willing to bet, even with adding this starter, we will still be needing to call on our minor league depth a few times before this season is over!

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

We have pitching depth this year. We didn't have pitching depth last year

It is at the very least a little bit ironic that this claim was made last year by many folks on this same site. Last year the Twins sat with Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Happ, Dobnak, Shoemaker, Smeltzer, Thorpe, etc. 

I think we can all agree that pitching is a tough job and success is difficult to predict. Yesterday, Berrios and Montas got hammered and Manaea threw seven no hit innings with Rogers picking up a save. 

[Major League Ready]

53 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree with what you are saying except for one small point. 

I think the Twins can contend this year and I think the front office thinks that as well.

But Yeah, they are clearly hedging their bets by getting ready for 2023 at the same time.  

I agree and I am hopeful.  They could have a year like 2019 where everything comes together.  That's always a possibility, the odds just are not great.  If this was a rebuild Buxton and Polanco would have been traded.  I view it as they are putting a team on the field that can make the playoffs but their emphasis remains building a pitching staff from within.  I guess you could also say their asset management strategy emphasizes long-term value over current year just as the A's and Ray's practice.

[Major League Ready]

33 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Jose Miranda? I'm really bullish on his bat and am a believer in his potential to be the full time third baseman next year and I hope he takes the position by June 1 this year. 

My thinking is that a roster to win the AL Central this year could have been accomplished for $110 million and a good team could also be quite strong for around $80 million. The Twins could easily go to $150 million this year and make a strong profit. The decision rests on the specific goals for a team.

The savings accomplished by the jettison of JD was about $6-7 million this year and less for next year unless the Twins release/trade both Sanchez and Urshela, which seems expected. While I agree with your optimism concerning Miranda, the Twins have not been players for large contracts thus the money saved seems pretty irrelevant. The Twins could have easily rostered both JD and Correa. The oddity, for me, is that a number of media people as well as Twins Daily posters have referenced or suggested that Donaldson was traded because of internal issues with his personality. I have no knowledge about that.

The Twins have gone well past the roster budget suggested as a ceiling by most folks on Twins Daily and the club is being rebuilt continually in the mold desired by the current front office. The final judgment on whether this is effective is made customers (attendance and viewership numbers) and the won-loss record. I don't believe we need to worry about the money the Twins make or spend. I'm fine with a big profit for JP and I'm fine with JD/CC making big money too. Money aside, who would you choose to play this season at third base - JD or Arraez or Urshela or Miranda? An argument can certainly be made for Jose Miranda because injuries happen and he seems the most likely to play the full slate of games. 

 

You may not have noticed that my comments were directed at next year and beyond.  They simply are not and never were going to be real contenders this year.  Therefore, I am glad they did not pass up opportunities to improve the long-term outlook of the team for a long-shot of competing this year.  I was offering a look at this off-season in the context of what they did to position the team for success beyond this year.  I placed no value on Urshella and/or Sanchez.  They can cut both.  However, it would be great if Urshela gets back to anything close to his 2019 / 2020 seasons which would make this deal even better. 

[Hheimer]

The Twins are trying to be the Tampa Bay Rays with a bigger budget. 

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

A team serious about competing in 2022 doesn't trade Rogers.

Unless they thought they could upgrade their team by doing so.  New closers emerge from unexpected places every year.  Twins have a number of potential options.  The sky is not falling.

[TopGunn#22]

While I will always be a fan of Rogers I think the Twins FO made a great deal.  As has been stated previously this was all about "value."  Pagan, may or may not prove to be as effective as Rogers will be in 2022.  If I had to choose between the 2019 version of each, I might lean a little toward Pagan.  But Rogers has been the most consistently "better" bullpen piece.  Paddock is indeed a gamble with high upside and concerning downside.  Let's see what we get out of him THIS year first.  I've got a feeling we will get more out of him in 2023 and 2024.  The Twins FO is certainly not done dealing for this year.  Once the Twins hit the All-Star break, we will probably need to assess and reevaluate where 2022 is going.  

[Riverbrian]

16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

It is at the very least a little bit ironic that this claim was made last year by many folks on this same site. Last year the Twins sat with Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Happ, Dobnak, Shoemaker, Smeltzer, Thorpe, etc. 

I think we can all agree that pitching is a tough job and success is difficult to predict. Yesterday, Berrios and Montas got hammered and Manaea threw seven no hit innings with Rogers picking up a save. 

I wasn't one of those folks. ?

The only thing stable about pitching is the volatility of it. You can always count on that. 

It's a numbers game... Smeltzer and Thorpe were not healthy and neither never really had the potential of a Winder, Balazovic or Duran either.

I admit I was hoping for more out of Dobnak... that didn't work out. There wasn't anything else ready on the farm. Now you are relying on Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker just to fill out 5 guys to keep an antiquated 5 man rotation rotating. Eventually, and predictably they had to turn to Ober, Barnes and Jax. Ober worked out... let's see if he works out this year but if he doesn't... we have other guys to turn to. 

This year... instead of signing a Happ and Shoemaker and needing them to absolutely stay healthy and pitch well or it all falls apart. We have signed Bundy and Archer and have other options in case they don't stay healthy or pitch well. 

I love it. 

 

 

 

 

[Dman]

7 hours ago, Wizard11 said:

It will be interesting to see who the PTBNL is.  The structure of this trade suggests to me that it won’t be a throw-in.  The $6.6MM added had to be about something more the average low A ball lottery ticket.  

I don't know how much we can trust the baseball trade values site, but the according to it the Twins got 18 MTV versus the Padres 9 MTV.  I think the money involved likely helps make up the difference for the imbalance in the trade value's involved.  If that is the case then I wouldn't expect an overly high level prospect to come back to the Twins in this deal.  Still you never know.

[Riverbrian]

33 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They could have a year like 2019 where everything comes together.  That's always a possibility, the odds just are not great. 

 

I guess you could also say their asset management strategy emphasizes long-term value over current year just as the A's and Ray's practice.

The odds are long for all teams. Start at 1/30 and adjust that up and down based on how the talent performs. Every team needs it to come together. John Lennon knew that back in the 60's. ?

Asset management strategy. From your fingers to God's eyeballs. I hope they follow the Rays, Dodgers and Giants practice. 

 

[USAFChief]

36 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The odds are long for all teams. Start at 1/30 and adjust that up and down based on how the talent performs. Every team needs it to come together. John Lennon knew that back in the 60's. ?

Asset management strategy. From your fingers to God's eyeballs. I hope they follow the Rays, Dodgers and Giants practice. 

 

Will you give me 30-1 on the Dodgers winning 95 games?

 

$100?

 

 

[tony&rodney]

55 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You may not have noticed that my comments were directed at next year and beyond.

I absolutely understood that you are focused solely on next year and beyond but you did not notice that my suggestion is that the money saved is irrelevant which you may disagree with. My question was simple - Miranda, Arraez, Urshela, or JD for this year without taking money into your decision? I also suggested that a good argument could be made for any of these guys as your pick. The Twins get to decide where the money goes, we don't. Thus, I don't consider the money as relevant. You are free to disagree. The money isn't up for discussion, just who you prefer at third base. I'm ok with any choice but interested in the choice. 

[Blyleven2011]

I've been gone for a month  and trying to catch up on the trades ....

 

Twins trade our best hitting catcher to Texas for a shortstop and prospect  and then the twins flip shortstop to the yankees plus donalson and salary relief plus our best defensive catcher rortvedt  for Sanchez , ursela  ..

Twins trade our 1st round draft choice of 2021 and the only pitcher in our system labeled an ACE , Longshot sure but the twins got sonny gray and a prospect  ,, sonny gray is not ACE material  but a very good pitcher ...

Now we trade  Roger's ( an above average coveted lefthander in the bullpen) and rooker with no real value as of yet for paddack and pagan  that have taken some steps backwards with Padres the past few years and and a player to be determined later  ,,,  We also give san Diego 6.6 million  if I'm reading the post right ...

My point to the trades are we overspent on everyone of them and are hoping that a change of scenery will restart their careers ...

 

Traded away above average players for players depth  that we're hoping to trade at deadline once they build up value for prospects   ....

 

 

I do like shaking things up though  , it should always be on the minds of players  always that they can be replaced ....

If only our manager would take the talent he has and tap into the talent  potential  and make that player better  ,,,,

Maybe Correa can help the lineup cut down on the strikeouts since he came from a team that struck out the most for a few seasons  and then went to first in striking out the least in the league with Houston ...

THATS adjustments and that's more of the game than analytics  ....

[Riverbrian]

25 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Will you give me 30-1 on the Dodgers winning 95 games?

 

$100?

 

 

You are going to have to find another source to purchase those Gold Cuff Links. 

Besides... you are more of plastic button guy anyway.    ?

 

 

[ashbury]

12 hours ago, USAFChief said:

A team serious about competing in 2022 doesn't trade Rogers.

 

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Unless they thought they could upgrade their team by doing so.  New closers emerge from unexpected places every year.  Twins have a number of potential options.  The sky is not falling.

If the object is identify one guy who is better than the other relievers, anoint him "closer", and then try to time his usage exactly right to extract the maximum wins from a limited bullpen, then I could see your point.

If the object is to have a bullpen full of capable arms, then trading away your best arm is a step backwards, and I take Chief's comment in that light.

On the third hand, a pitching staff is not just the bullpen, and starters generally pitch more innings as a group than the bullpen does.  Getting a capable starter is a worthwhile aim and could be worth the sacrifice.

On the fourth hand, because of a known injury risk and the downward trend of his past two seasons, I'm not sure we targeted the right guy.

My feelings about this trade are very mixed.

[dxpavelka]

18 minutes ago, ashbury said:

 

If the object is identify one guy who is better than the other relievers, anoint him "closer", and then try to time his usage exactly right to extract the maximum wins from a limited bullpen, then I could see your point.

If the object is to have a bullpen full of capable arms, then trading away your best arm is a step backwards, and I take Chief's comment in that light.

On the third hand, a pitching staff is not just the bullpen, and starters generally pitch more innings as a group than the bullpen does.  Getting a capable starter is a worthwhile aim and could be worth the sacrifice.

On the fourth hand, because of a known injury risk and the downward trend of his past two seasons, I'm not sure we targeted the right guy.

My feelings about this trade are very mixed.

The object is to win ballgames.  One thing we've learned the last few years is that there is more than one way to accomplish that.  As far as the fourth had goes, regarding known injury risk and downward trend of the past two seasons, we might not have targeted the right guy but we may have traded the right guy....

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

The object is to win ballgames. 

I'm glad that you are capable of maintaining this crystal clarity.

[dxpavelka]

30 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I'm glad that you are capable of maintaining this crystal clarity.

I do what I can.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

You are going to have to find another source to purchase those Gold Cuff Links. 

Besides... you are more of plastic button guy anyway.    ?

 

 

Then it might not be accurate to say all teams start at 1/30? 

I'm guessing you wouldn't even give me 10 to 1.

And I'm more of a fake silver cuff link guy, as the only time I've ever worn cuff links was with my mess dress. Suckers are hard to put on, too, especially using my left hand to put on the cuff link on my right wrist. Amby Dextrus is not something I've ever been called.?

[USAFChief]

I say again, a team serious about competing in 2022 doesn't trade Rogers.

[mikelink45]

Yes we will miss Rogers  Do not overestimate the FO strategies. There is a reason only a few pitchers handle the ninth inning. 

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Then it might not be accurate to say all teams start at 1/30? 

I'm guessing you wouldn't even give me 10 to 1.

And I'm more of a fake silver cuff link guy, as the only time I've ever worn cuff links was with my mess dress. Suckers are hard to put on, too, especially using my left hand to put on the cuff link on my right wrist. Amby Dextrus is not something I've ever been called.?

It's completely accurate. 30 teams. That's where it starts... some teams have amassed more talent, filled more holes and how they play will adjust those starting odds but all teams have odds to overcome because the other 29 teams are also trying to win games. 

I'm not going to bet against the Dodgers winning 95 games when I think they are going to win more. It doesn't mean I'll be right but I think they are the best run organization in baseball. 

I agree with MLR... The Twins have odds to overcome... so do all the teams. I don't think they are as long as others do. I think we will have meaningful baseball in September. 

I had a pair of cuff links once... couldn't get them on my T-shirt.