Twins Opening Day Preview: Joe Ryan vs Robbie Ray

[Jamie Cameron]

Opening Day is Friday. 24 hours from now, Joe Ryan takes on Robbie Ray in an unusual, historic, and intriguing pitching matchup. Who has the edge?

Opening Day is finally here, albeit delayed due to the weather. Regardless, get your warm clothes ready, prep your ‘162-0’ or ‘the season is lost’ Tweets, and get ready to enjoy the time of year when optimism reigns, if only fleetingly. 

On Friday, golden boy Joe Ryan, an immediate favorite with Twins fans and (extreme) darkhorse for AL Rookie of the Year, will open the 2022 season for Minnesota. What could go wrong? Simple, he’s facing Robbie Ray, a pitcher whose backside is so prominent that his pants have their own Twitter account. More relevantly, Ray is the reigning Cy-Young winner and fresh off signing a 5-year, $115 million deal with the rejuvenated Mariners this offseason. So what can Twins fans expect from the pitchers, their arsenals, and the matchup?

Joe Cool
Minnesota acquiring six years of Ryan in exchange for the 0.2 fWAR Nelson Cruz provided the Rays late in 2021 is a gift that will continue to give for the Twins. Despite his perceived proximity to the majors at the time of the trade, Ryan’s continued ascent has been impressive. In a five start stint at the end of 2021, Ryan struck out 30% of hitters he faced, walked just 5%, and produced an xERA of just 2.99.

In spite of this, no one would have expected Ryan to get the Opening Day nod for the Twins. A shortened spring training, other Twins pitchers at various stages of readiness, and Ryan’s general unflappability ultimately convinced the Twins. Ryan becomes the first rookie to start on Opening Day since Tom Hall in 1969, a season in which Minnesota won 97 games on their way to being swept in the AL Championship Series by the Orioles.

An Ace in the Hole
Ray could not contrast more markedly with Ryan in experience, build, or arsenal. The 6’2 left-hander had a breakthrough season in 2021 for Toronto and earned himself an excellent payday with what should be a fun and relevant Mariners team.

Ray accumulated 3.9 fWAR in 2021 on his way to his first Cy-Young award. The Mariners ace maintained his electric ability to strike out opposing hitters last season, doing so at an incredible 32.1% clip (5th best in baseball). Additionally, he finally managed to overcome the challenge that had plagued him throughout his previous six season, control. Ray walked just 6.4% of opposing hitters in 2021, down from his career average of 10.3% (17.9% in 2020!)


Ray did seem to benefit from some batted ball luck in 2021, his 2.84 ERA belying his peripheral numbers, most of which slotted into the 3.3-3.6 range. Make no mistake, however, Ray is dominant on his day. It remains to be seen how cold conditions will impact both pitchers when they square off in Minneapolis.

Pitching Arsenals
Ryan has an extremely unusual pitching arsenal. He throws a four-seam fastball, typically up in the zone, around 66% of the time, at just 91 mph. Ryan relies on a combination of an extremely low release point and high attack angle to create a rising effect on his fastball. In short, it’s consistently deceptive in a way that makes hitters swing underneath it.

Ryan also offers a slider (16%), a changeup (10%), and a curveball (8%). The changeup was extremely effective in a small sample in 2021, while the development of Ryan’s slider as a legitimate third pitch will be one of the decisive factors in his possible ascension from good to great.

Ray does not rely on deception. He’s essentially a two pitch pitcher, throwing an explosive fastball (60%) that averages 95 mph pretty much all over the place. Ray also throws a very hard slider (30%) 88-92 mph down and away from right-handed hitters or down and in to left-handed hitters. Ray gives up plenty of hard contact, with an average exit velocity harder than Ryan’s. It will be incumbent on the Twins’ right-handed hitters to play well on Friday in order to force him from the game.

The Offenses
The final X-factor in this intriguing matchup is the lineups for each team. Twins fans have been excited by Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa’s combined offensive masterclass in spring training. The offense represents the greatest strength of the Twins lineup. What about Seattle?

Seattle has a solid core of offensive veterans on their team. Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier were joined by Nick Gordon's former high school teammate Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez in an off-season trade with Cincinnati. The excitement surrounding the team is bound up in a rising cluster of potential superstar rookies, led by Wisconsin native Jared Kelenic, and uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez. After struggling in the majors initially, Kelenic finished the spring hot, clubbing three home runs in his last four days for Seattle. J-Rod is a different animal altogether. The consensus global top three prospects is projected to finish with 3.4 fWAR by ZiPS, as a rookie. Rodriguez managed a 173 wRC+ in AAA in 2021. Prepare to be amazed. 

PECOTA projects Seattle to finish 2022 with 83 wins, in or around the range most projection systems have the Twins finishing the forthcoming season. Seattle will be a good opening test for Minnesota. They are an emerging team, with young offensive star power, trying to win. Best of luck, Joe Ryan.

The matchup Twins fans get to look forward to on Opening Day is as historic as it is unlikely. After recent seasons stymied by COVID-19 and a Commissioner-imposed lockout, the outcome at Target Field is unlikely to matter. Baseball will be back. That alone should be enough to put a smile on all of our faces.

Of course, what will happen in the small sample size that is one Opening Day game in the cold weather after a three-week spring training? There's no way to know. But, make your predictions. How will these pitchers do? How will the game end up? Leave your Comments below. 

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[dex8425]

How many innings did Ray throw in ST games? Any idea how deep he could go in the game if he is rolling?

[terrydactyls]

As a first responder (not like a paramedic or police officer or a fireman, but as a Twins Daily commenter), I am looking forward to a 90-win season, a top 10 pitching staff, multiple Gold Gloves, possible batting title, and MVP votes for several players.  I am also looking forward to refilling my medicine bottles.  Side effects may include delusional thinking, reduced cognitive ability, and a big smile.  Happy 2022 baseball season everyone.

Edit:  While I was typing, dex8425 snuck in before me negating my "first responder" status

[Jamie Cameron]

8 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

How many innings did Ray throw in ST games? Any idea how deep he could go in the game if he is rolling?

Great question! 13.2 innings over 3 games started. Ray is not really efficient. I don't know an exact pitch count, but I'd guess around 80 pitches. 

[nicksaviking]

I am giving Joe Ryan the chance to become my new favorite Twins pitcher tomorrow. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity and surely would be a huge honor for him.

[Doctor Gast]

It'll be an interesting game to see how the Twins start off the season and how the team will be managed.

[roger]

My prediction is Ryan goes 5 innings, allowing 1 run.  Buxton and Correa each get 2 hits and score once apiece.  Sanó is 1-4 with the hit being a long two run blast.  Kirilloff and Kepler each come up with a big hit, helping the Twins to a 6-2 win!

[garn from vancouver]

well, if joe hadn't cut his hair i'd would have given the advantage to him.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, roger said:

My prediction is Ryan goes 5 innings, allowing 1 run.  Buxton and Correa each get 2 hits and score once apiece.  Sanó is 1-4 with the hit being a long two run blast.  Kirilloff and Kepler each come up with a big hit, helping the Twins to a 6-2 win!

I’m holding you to each and every detail roger. 

[Trov]

It will be interesting to see if hitters ever adjust to the fastball of Ryan.  It does look like it rises and all those swings under it creates either misses or popups a lot too.  As long as they are not hitting it out of the park he will get a lot of flyouts to go with strike outs. I know MLB sample size small but his numbers have been good.

If you look at his minor league numbers they overall have been good too. He has always had more double digit K's per 9, and with 2 or less walks per 9, for a good K to Walk rate. If his fastball sat at 95 he would be ranked as one of best rookie pitchers in the game.  I am rooting for Joe to show you do not need the velo to win, but you can still pitch yourself to being good. 

Ray is the opposite, he will always get by on his velo and slider movement.  If he is not spotting his fastball he will get back to walking guys.  Once he loses some velo he will drop off quickly I would think.  I personally think he will regress back to his norm.  He is going to be 30 this year, coming off of a career year in contract year.  He pitched last year better than he ever has by far, except for hard hit rate still very high. To me that suggests he got some luck.  Maybe he finally found some control, but having long term walk issues just go away one season is a little surprising.  Maybe Toronto unlocked something in that matter.  It just raises and eye brow that he is still giving up huge hard hit rate with such a low OBP.