Twins/Padres Finalize Deal: Rogers, Rooker to San Diego for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan

[clone52]

Go compare Paddack to Kyle Gibson. First 3 years are very similar in results (ERA, FIP, etc).  Paddack started his career 3 years younger than Kyle Gibson.  Paddack had way more strikeouts and way fewer walks than Gibson.  Gibson really took a leap in his 5th year, 4th year was still a struggle.

Gibson was a higher draft pick, but both were in the minors as highly rated prospects.  Paddack broke into the big leagues 3 years earlier than Gibson and has a lot better stuff it seems.

At a minimum, this seems like 1 year Taylor Rogers for 2-3 years of good Kyle Gibson and a 2 years of a serviceable to good RP.

I mean, there is a chance that Paddack and Pagan are more valuable to the Twins this year than Rogers would have been.  Not much worse than 50/50 I'd say.

Long term, this was a fantastic trade for the Twins.

Honestly, this might even make Correa more likely to stick around.  If the Twins had picked up Mannaea instead and gotten into the playoffs but not made the World Series, would Correa stick around?  Rogers would be leaving, Mannaea would be gone,  Now, if Paddack improves and Pagan regains his Tampa form, you are looking good in 2023.

Gray, Maeda, Paddack, Ryan, best rookie RP has the makings of a great rotation.  You only need to hit on one of the rookies.  If more of them hit, you've got some great trade chips (not just them, but Paddack himself could be a great trade chip)

Duran, Alcala, Tampa Pagan could be a great backend of the bullpen.

[twinstalker]

Oof.  For now anyway, but wait until Paddack recovers from his second TJS surgery to lead the Twins out from under the worst record in MLB in 2024 so the Twins can avoid the first few draft picks in 2025 and select another right-handed hitting college first basemen.

"We almost had it right with Aaron Sabato" stated recently demoted Derek Falvey, while an angry-looking Jim Pohlad looked on.

Seriously, Paddack has a UCL tear.  This better be a helluva PTBNL.

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Ober, Ryan, Duran, Winder, Balazovic and, Sands

Using the rookies as a long reliever gives them development in the majors while slowly increasing innings from their current low totals. It also keeps salaries down through arbitration - which could be part of the strategy.

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

 It also keeps salaries down through arbitration - which could be part of the strategy.

Which also keeps the value of the player down.

Real Bad strategy.

 

 

 

[MN_ExPat]

13 hours ago, h2oface said:

This is so sneaky clever. Trade away your bullpen leader, your union leader, AND pay his salary for the other team! AND do it the day before your season starts! So clever. These guys want to win. Don't you all see it?

No... I don't.  

Might want to lay off on the conspiracy theories before bedtime .

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It's almost 1 standard deviation above average for a starting pitcher. That's a solid #3 / borderline #2. Remember that ERA+ includes all the relief pitchers too.

So we're mad the Twins didn't get a #3 to front their rotation? And out of a 5 man rotation being a #3 would mean you're right in the middle, or average. I wouldn't be upset with having gotten Manaea, I'm simply pointing out that he isn't what he's being described as. I wouldn't be shocked at all if either Ryan or Ober were able to provide solid #3 performance this year. Or Paddack. Or any combination of our young guys. Manaea is not a frontline starter is the point.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

So we're mad the Twins didn't get a #3 to front their rotation? And out of a 5 man rotation being a #3 would mean you're right in the middle, or average. I wouldn't be upset with having gotten Manaea, I'm simply pointing out that he isn't what he's being described as. I wouldn't be shocked at all if either Ryan or Ober were able to provide solid #3 performance this year. Or Paddack. Or any combination of our young guys. Manaea is not a frontline starter is the point.

Moving the goal posts again? It has zero to do with Ryan, Ober, or "#3."

This started with a claim Winder would provide the same to the Twins in 2022 as Manaea. That's...questionable. 

Arguing that Manaea is league average not only missed the point, but is demonstrably false to boot.

[Major League Ready]

This relative merit of this deal depends on how much focus is put of 2022 vs 2023 and beyond.  IMO, the goal of the front office was to put a decent product on the field in 2022 but they knew any chance at a true contender was a long shot.  Plus, developing pitching internally is pretty much a prerequisite to any real shot at sustained success. 

They have used this as a guide since the start of the off-season and they have been opportunistic.  Moving Rodgers and Donaldson is likely not good for 2022. However, they have had a great off-season in terms of 2023 and beyond.  They signed Buxton and got Paddack for 3 years and Urshela / Pagen for 2 as well as a decent prospect in Henriquez  I like the odds that Getting rid of Donaldson’s 21.75M in 2023 and $8M buyout will turn out to be advantageous.   Then there is Carlos Correa.  Great if he stays but also one heck of trade chip this summer if that ends up being the option taken.  Of course, we also have the #8 pick this summer.   We did not improve 2022 in my estimation but this off-season has been very good in terms of improving the future outlook, especially if Paddack reaches anything close to his ceiling. 
 

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

This relative merit of this deal depends on how much focus is put of 2022 vs 2023 and beyond.  IMO, the goal of the front office was to put a decent product on the field in 2022 but they knew any chance at a true contender was a long shot.  Plus, developing pitching internally is pretty much a prerequisite to any real shot at sustained success. 

They have used this as a guide since the start of the off-season and they have been opportunistic.  Moving Rodgers and Donaldson is likely not good for 2022. However, they have had a great off-season in terms of 2023 and beyond.  They signed Buxton and got Paddack for 3 years and Urshela / Pagen for 2 as well as a decent prospect in Henriquez  I like the odds that Getting rid of Donaldson’s 21.75M in 2023 and $8M buyout will turn out to be advantageous.   Then there is Carlos Correa.  Great if he stays but also one heck of trade chip this summer if that ends up being the option taken.  Of course, we also have the #8 pick this summer.   We did not improve 2022 in my estimation but this off-season has been very good in terms of improving the future outlook, especially if Paddack reaches anything close to his ceiling. 
 

I believe we improved our chances in future years while not lessening our chances that much this year. 

The Bullpen will sort itself out with a lot of arms to choose from. The loss of Rogers can be mitigated internally. 

Donaldson... Yeah... the guy has talent but Urshela or eventually Miranda can minimize that loss by simply not being terrible.

Starting Pitching has options... lots of them and that was something we didn't have last year and that improvement covers the what I consider to be smaller losses listed above. 

Kepler and Kiriloff having decent years, replacing Garver's production and what happens with the 8 potential starters on the opening day roster are key to this year.

I'm planning on meaningful baseball being played in September. 

[MN_ExPat]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Moving the goal posts again? It has zero to do with Ryan, Ober, or "#3."

This started with a claim Winder would provide the same to the Twins in 2022 as Manaea. That's...questionable. 

Arguing that Manaea is league average not only missed the point, but is demonstrably false to boot.

Lookout... Chief's using big words again  

[Riverbrian]

28 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Lookout... Chief's using big words again  

Boot? 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Moving the goal posts again? It has zero to do with Ryan, Ober, or "#3."

This started with a claim Winder would provide the same to the Twins in 2022 as Manaea. That's...questionable. 

Arguing that Manaea is league average not only missed the point, but is demonstrably false to boot.

I'm not moving goal posts. I replied to your claim of it being hard to find someone to throw 180 innings of league average pitching and that Manaea has been above league average every year since 2018. You cleared up the 180 innings as you having meant 160. I pointed out that Manaea has not been league average every year since 2018. Unless you count throwing 29 innings in 2019 as being league average (throwing enough innings to really matter was part of your argument against Winder and I assume 29 innings isn't enough for you). You admitted he wasn't league average in 2020. So that's 2 out of your 4 year sample where he wasn't league average. Last year he was 4% above league average. Sorry that I'm not impressed by that. 

You keep claiming he's above average and now say it's "demonstrably false" to say he's league average when I'm the only one actually demonstrating anything and you have provided no evidence that he's been "above league average every season since 2018." And it's not missing the point, it's directly refuting a claim you made. Sorry if I took "2. It's a stretch to call Manaea league average anyway. He's been better than that every year since 2018 except the short season of 2020." to mean you were making a point that Manaea was league average.

[USAFChief]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not moving goal posts. I replied to your claim of it being hard to find someone to throw 180 innings of league average pitching and that Manaea has been above league average every year since 2018. You cleared up the 180 innings as you having meant 160. I pointed out that Manaea has not been league average every year since 2018. Unless you count throwing 29 innings in 2019 as being league average (throwing enough innings to really matter was part of your argument against Winder and I assume 29 innings isn't enough for you). You admitted he wasn't league average in 2020. So that's 2 out of your 4 year sample where he wasn't league average. Last year he was 4% above league average. Sorry that I'm not impressed by that. 

You keep claiming he's above average and now say it's "demonstrably false" to say he's league average when I'm the only one actually demonstrating anything and you have provided no evidence that he's been "above league average every season since 2018." And it's not missing the point, it's directly refuting a claim you made. Sorry if I took "2. It's a stretch to call Manaea league average anyway. He's been better than that every year since 2018 except the short season of 2020." to mean you were making a point that Manaea was league average.

I did not say "every season since 2018." As you clearly show with my actual quote, I said every season except 2020.

 

And I stand by both my claims:

1)the original, which is Winder is extremely unlikely to provide the same performance in 2022 as Manaea,

And

2) Manaea cannot be accurately described as "league average."

 

[chpettit19]

Just now, USAFChief said:

I did not say "every season since 2018." As you clearly show with my actual quote, I said every season except 2020.

 

And I stand by both my claims:

1)the original, which is Winder is extremely unlikely to provide the same performance in 2022 as Manaea,

And

2) Manaea cannot be accurately described as "league average."

 

Every season except 2020. While you ignored 2019. You can claim he cannot be accurately described as "league average" all you want, but I've shown over and over that you're mischaracterizing him by suggesting he's more than league average. I have no problem with you viewing him as better than league average, but you're yet to provide a single point of data to prove that claim while I've provided multiple to disprove it.

[USAFChief]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 but you're yet to provide a single point of data to prove that claim

You mean other than his career 107 ERA+, right?

 

Other than that data.

[MN_ExPat]

16 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

You mean other than his career 107 ERA+, right?

 

Other than that data.

37 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Every season except 2020. While you ignored 2019. You can claim he cannot be accurately described as "league average" all you want, but I've shown over and over that you're mischaracterizing him by suggesting he's more than league average. I have no problem with you viewing him as better than league average, but you're yet to provide a single point of data to prove that claim while I've provided multiple to disprove it.

 

[KirbyDome89]

21 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I had a similar thought but I just don't think we are going to see Bundy/Archer used in a typical starting role.  We might see them used 3-4 innings per outing which would facilitate doing the same with Winder / Duran and others while they work their way to a more traditional role.  Bundy is $4M and Archer's base pay is $2.75M.  If they end up paying Archer significantly more, it's very likely it was a good move to bring him on.  I just hope Bundy is good enough to trade him or bad enough to cut him.  

 

21 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

In Bundy's case, it felt from the beginning like they said to themselves, "Uh the lockout is minutes away and we forgot about free agency, sign someone, anyone NOW!"

I didn't like the inactivity, but I would say that there appears to be a legit game plan and direction at this point; I wouldn't have said that in December when Bundy was signed.

Yeah, I'm not bemoaning pissing away some of the Pohlad's $$, or the potential usage of these guys as I hope/agree that the leash should be short (especially considering Archer's contract structure). I just feel like there were better ways to allocate a finite resource. If Bundy pre lockout is the safety net, ok I guess, but doubling down with Archer makes no sense, especially if the FO was going to be aggressive in the trade market and they're this comfy starting the season with a rotation full of question marks. 

[nicksaviking]

Archer can earn some good bonuses, and the Twins did specifically craft it so that he can earn those bonuses based on starts OR based on appearances he goes at least three innings. I can't imagine that verbiage was put into his contract unless both the Twins and Archer knew that it was very likely he was going to be a long-man/piggy-backer in the bullpen.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

You mean other than his career 107 ERA+, right?

 

Other than that data.

Which is less than 1 standard deviation above 100 which puts him in the good part of average pitchers. And he was a 104 last year with some pretty awful peripherals. Which is why Oakland couldn't even get a top 10 system prospect for him and even had to attach a prospect of their own to Manaea in the deal. Manaea is very much a league average pitcher whether you like it or not. He'll most certainly get more innings this year than Winder (not accounting for a major injury to either party of course), but it wouldn't be shocking at all to see a Winder type rookie put up roughly the same type of ERA numbers (high 3s or low 4s, Manaea was at 3.91 last year) as Manaea in about 120 innings. In fact Ober (not exactly a highly rated prospect) almost did it last year. Ober threw 108.1 total innings last year coming off the pandemic year and with a heavy injury history so they were extra cautious with him.

I have no problem with you liking Manaea, but he isn't the clearly above average pitcher you're attempting to make him sound like. And outside of his innings likely being in the 160-180 range compared to 120ish for any of the Twins rookies this year it's absolutely not unreasonable to think one of those young arms can produce a 3.91 ERA in 120 innings this year.

[Shaitan]

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Using the rookies as a long reliever gives them development in the majors while slowly increasing innings from their current low totals. It also keeps salaries down through arbitration - which could be part of the strategy.

Except rookies aren't arbitration eligible. That comes on year 3 or something (don't know the exact details).

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 4/7/2022 at 11:38 PM, clone52 said:

And lose both Manaea and Rogers at the end of the season.

This is a great trade long term for a slight risk to 2022.  No brainer.

Manaea pitched 7 innings of no-hit ball today. Rogers pitched 1 inning yesterday, no hits and got the save.

[clone52]

On 4/9/2022 at 6:50 PM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Manaea pitched 7 innings of no-hit ball today. Rogers pitched 1 inning yesterday, no hits and got the save.

I hope it turns out well long term, but my take is not aging well.

[USAFChief]

Bump.