Twins/Padres Finalize Deal: Rogers, Rooker to San Diego for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

There must be a heck of a PTBNL coming back? Otherwise, this seems odd to me. 

The Money evens out the trade. 

Paddack a starting pitcher under team control through 2024 is a much much higher value. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins picked up a pitcher who  still has very solid potential. There must be another move coming because the 40 person roster will be bloated by next winter. A rationale to make this trade is ....

..... trade Martin, Balazovic, Sands, Strotman, and Larnach to Pittsburgh for Bryan Reynolds.

[LastOnePicked]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

"The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was THE Achilles heel of this team last year." is factually incorrect.

Agreed. I should have said that Rogers was one of the few (the only?) truly reliable, elite relievers on this staff in 2021. And a contending team needs reliable, elite relievers. Maybe we have a few on staff ready to step up, and maybe we don't.

Looking forward to hearing the inside scoop on how the trade happened. And if Tingler does have insights on Paddack's health and was consulted, so much the better. But I'm guessing that the current Padres staff knows more about Paddack's health/value than a guy they fired 6 months ago. 

[jdgoin]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure how I feel about the deal....

The Twins were not going to sign Rogers at the end of the year, most likely. Not unless he took a massive discount (why would he?). I never liked the Rooker draft, and don't think he can play D (I'd be ok with him at DH on a team that didn't have Sano). So, 1 year of Rogers and a guy that might or might not be a good hitter who can't play D (imo) given up.

Paddack is intriguing. He had issues last year with his fastball. If those get fixed, and the other pitches stay the same, things will be very good with him. He's not some old reclamation project, as some here think. He's as young (give or take a year) as some of the Twins' prospects....I don't know boo about the RP, other than what I've read in the thread.

The posts here blaming Rocco, or saying the FO doesn't have a plan.....I think you are wrong. They just have a different plan than you, or than you thought.....Also, when an opportunity arises, and you like it, you take it. That's much better than having some strict plan. 

I think I'm ok with this trade. Not a huge fan, not a hater. I don't think this team is a WS team with or without Rogers, so losing 1 year of a him probably is worth the gamble on Paddack.

I think you're correct here. Don't forget, Taylor would have probably been traded last year at the Deadline had he not been hurt. You almost always trade the reliever for the starter because of the value. Here, you have a pitcher in Paddack, who has the ability to miss bats & shows good control support metrics. He has added a CB to deepen his arsenal. He seems to have some command to tighten up, but that could be injury related. Minnesota saw an opportunity to add a pitcher with upside if he's healthy. They'll figure the rotation out later. Really, the rotation will figure itself out. They believe in their pitching program & think they can work with Paddack & Pagan to get them straightened out. Going forward they now have Gray, Maeda, Ober, Paddack, & Ryan going into 2023. Assuming Ober & Ryan continue to take steps forward that's a solid group.

[Mike Sixel]

 

 

[Coobelz]

Anyone know the rules on when we find out who the PTBNL is? 

[farmerguychris]

I don't mind this deal.  Good long term plan to trade relievers with only 1 year of team control for a starter with multiple years.  Good to replace said reliever (in addition to starter) by trading our 5th OF who would probably been lost for nothing after being DFA'd.  

Losing Rogers hurts, but we have some potential studs in the pipeline who can be in the pen this year instead of AAA.

[MMMordabito]

This looks to be a classic case of taking an opportunity to buy low.  It takes risk to see reward, and the Twins need to win some of these to make up ground on the free-spending big guns.

It's a great trade looking through the long term lens.

I wish Rogers the best in San Diego.  He was a great player for the Twins, but the page has turned.  He'll get to play against his brother more often, so that should be a bonus for him.

 

[RpR]

looking at Paddock's numbers at Baseball Ref., his ERA is go way up, his strike out rate is dropping way down. His home runs allowd number has dropped but , while he is young, his numbers look too much like Happ before he was sent to the Cards.

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

41 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Pitching is a numbers game. No organization can look at 5 starters and declare themselves covered. Options 6 through 10 are going to play a role. 

That was my point.  Perhaps not well-stated.

[MN_ExPat]

There's also the thing of the PTBNL from the Friars as well.  I have to speculate that this may mean one of the Padres draft picks from last year coming over as well.

[Riverbrian]

Just now, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

That was my point.  Perhaps not well-stated.

It was stated well. 

I was agreeing with you by adding more words. 

Perhaps not well-stated by me. 

[Deadfan]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Prior to the Correa signing I was a strong advocate for using the lens of 2023 with every addition. Using that lens this is a very good deal. Control of Paddack for three years fits that lens well.

All good deals have a cost and the cost of this one is 2022. The projected performance of Rogers can not be replaced easily.

I think one myth about relievers is that they are unreliable. It is true that their yearly stat line varies much more than starters but that isn’t a change in talent level. It is due to the small sample and the stats we are viewing. ERA, FIP, xFIP all need a sample beyond that inning out of a reliever in a single season. WAR variations are based on that data and a sample size that is unreliable. It becomes even more unreliable when we start looking at single season splits.

How does losing Rodgers suddenly mean we are out of it for this season? 

I think people chronically under/overestimate the power (or lack thereof) of relievers. 

[PseudoSABR]

10 minutes ago, RpR said:

looking at Paddock's numbers at Baseball Ref., his ERA is go way up, his strike out rate is dropping way down. His home runs allowd number has dropped but , while he is young, his numbers look too much like Happ before he was sent to the Cards.

You're just cherry picking stats to fit a negative take.  Look all the way to right on b-ref and you see that FIP number? That means he was having extraordinarily bad luck last year.  The Twins will have much better defense behind him than what San Diego was putting out there.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

42 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The Money evens out the trade. 

Paddack a starting pitcher under team control through 2024 is a much much higher value. 

In principle, some amount of money evens out the value in the trade. In principle, a starting pitcher under control for 3 years is much more valuable than a reliever under control for a year, but that's counter-balanced somewhat by Rogers being a more reliable bet to be good right now. (Putting it that way rather than simply saying "Rogers being better than Paddack.")

I think it just sounds weird to some people (including me) that the amount of $ is the equivalent of nearly Rogers' whole salary. It makes it seem like San Diego didn't actually value him that much, enough to pay a seemingly fair arbitration-year salary—even though other factors are at work, like the players coming back and perhaps how close SD is to the luxury tax.

(Edit to add): This is not looking at the deal in terms of precise surplus value, as in a single number from a model that estimates how valuable a player is against how much they are paid and will be paid. It very well may make sense in those terms to cover all of Rogers' 2022 pay - it just comes across a little odd in the context of how good the players involved are right now.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

You're just cherry picking stats to fit a negative take.  Look all the way to right on b-ref and you see that FIP number? That means he was having extraordinarily bad luck last year.  The Twins will have much better defense behind him than what San Diego was putting out there.

No I stated the number as they were, simple as that.

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Agreed. I should have said that Rogers was one of the few (the only?) truly reliable, elite relievers on this staff in 2021. And a contending team needs reliable, elite relievers. Maybe we have a few on staff ready to step up, and maybe we don't.

Looking forward to hearing the inside scoop on how the trade happened. And if Tingler does have insights on Paddack's health and was consulted, so much the better. But I'm guessing that the current Padres staff knows more about Paddack's health/value than a guy they fired 6 months ago. 

He was certainly the best reliever they had. No doubt about that.

You won't hear details on which coaches they talked to and how the trade happened. When do we ever hear that stuff? Of course they have more recent insight into his health, but the Twins have already gone over some medical stuff and will have their team drs do an exam on him before the deal is completely finalized. All trades are based on assumed healthy players. If Paddack is hurt, or his elbow scans show more damage than the Padres were telling teams, the Twins pull out of the trade and it's no big deal. The Red Sox literally just did that to the Twins in the Graterol/Maeda deal. The Padres' staff's feelings on Paddack's value means nothing to the Twins. It's their view on the type of player they can turn him into that matters. And Tingler has every bit as much knowledge on his willingness to be coached up, his competitiveness, and all the other things that the team cares about as the current Padres staff.

[GNess]

The strong reactions both in support of this trade and against it are not surprising.

Count me as a supporter, both for this season and especially for the next few.

Rogers was very good alas with only one year at most likely remaining with the Twins. In Paddack, the Twins have acquired a SP who could develop into a solid rotation piece for three seasons. (He is young and has shown ability.)

In getting Pagan, the Twins have added back to the BP - no Pagan is not Rogers, but he has had some success as well. In surrendering Rooker the Twins gave up a player that had no future with the club.

This trade has the potential to be a solid win for the Twins. 

[TouchEmAllGuy]

Your take is immediately null in my mind if you are still spelling Rogers as "Rodgers". Give the man the respect he earned!

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, mk said:

The Twins lost plenty of playoff games with Joe Nathan at the backend of the rotation as well. Admittedly, I'm biased as I think a "proven closer" is vastly overrated.

I don't really buy into the idea of "proven closers" either but that's different from saying that there are definite tiers of relievers.  Rogers might not quite be in the Hader and Hendriks tier but he's right below there.  5th most reliever WAR in all of baseball from 2018-2021

Any reliever, even Mariano Rivera, can blow some games from time to time.  But I'm thinking more about guys like Zack Littell and Cody Stashak getting blown up by the Yankees in the middle innings of playoff games in 2019 rather than Nathan blowing saves in the 2000s.

They are subtracting a very good bullpen arm.  Everyone else will move up a spot in the leverage chain, and the chances of blowing a lead somewhere in the middle and late innings just goes up a bit everywhere.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

 

All good deals have a cost and the cost of this one is 2022. The projected performance of Rogers can not be replaced easily.

I think the Twins just did a favor to everyone who thought this team was brining home the bacon in 2022. They were never going to be a legit contender with or without Rogers. As a fan, I'd rather have that clear to start the season than holding grand illusions that will soon be dashed.

But don't get me wrong, I'm really looking forward to this year. I can't wait to see which young guys step up. Watching the talented young guys is way more enjoyable to me than watching the "crafty" vets.

[MN_ExPat]

33 minutes ago, Coobelz said:

Anyone know the rules on when we find out who the PTBNL is? 

Think a lot depends on "who" the player is.  I may be remembering this wrong, but... I believe that a player drafted the previous year (2021 in this case) cannot be traded until after the draft the following year.  I've seen a few of these PTBNLs come out as a player who was just drafted but it can't be announced until after the following draft is completed.

We shall see I guess.

[MN_ExPat]

18 minutes ago, RpR said:

No I stated the number as they were, simple as that.

True... but they don't tell the whole story.  A big part yes, but there is more to it always.

[LastOnePicked]

Here's my last word on this: it's unwise to complete a trade that makes your current team worse in year that you've decided to compete. The bullpen was the reason for the team's terrible start in 2021, and the terrible start effectively ended the season very early.

Rogers was very well-respected and trusted. He's a team leader, and he kept the players informed and unified during a very contentious lockout. He brings clear value on the mound, and also intangible value. And he looked *great* during spring training.

It's not hard to imagine a few blown late-inning leads in the first week, and the general feeling sinking into the club, "Rogers would have closed that out" or "here we go again." Momentum matters.

This offseason has been one giant test for the FO. I'm still hoping it works, but I'm more skeptical now.

[ashbury]

Near as I can tell, Pagán has spent his entire career so far playing for teams in pitcher-friendly home parks.  His home/road splits over his career decidedly skew toward being less effective in road games - true of most players but a little more than ordinarily - home OPS-against of .615 (good), road .774 (below average).  Target Field is close to neutral in this respect, so it's not like he's moving to Coors or anything.  But it's a concern, for me.

Wes Johnson has his work cut out for him, if the task is to work a miracle on this arm that's about to turn 31 years old.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Manaea is a free agent next year and this team was not built to win a WS in 2022. Manaea wouldn't have changed that.

  I'm a;ll for signing Correa, but I think the Twins shou;ld have traded for Manaea, due to the weak haul the A's got for Manaea from San Diego. San Diego in effect replaced 3 years of Paddack for 1 year of Manaea and two years of Pagan for 1 year of Rogers.  Interesting.

[sthpstm]

11 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Think a lot depends on "who" the player is.  I may be remembering this wrong, but... I believe that a player drafted the previous year (2021 in this case) cannot be traded until after the draft the following year.  I've seen a few of these PTBNLs come out as a player who was just drafted but it can't be announced until after the following draft is completed.

We shall see I guess.

My money’s on Robert Glasser as first choice.

[ashbury]

13 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Think a lot depends on "who" the player is.  I may be remembering this wrong, but... I believe that a player drafted the previous year (2021 in this case) cannot be traded until after the draft the following year. 

We just flipped Chase Petty for Sonny Gray.

[MN_ExPat]

Just now, ashbury said:

That used to be true, but it now is just until the end of the season.  It's how we flipped Chase Petty for Sonny Gray.

True, forgot about that.  Thx much  

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

  I'm a;ll for signing Correa, but I think the Twins shou;ld have traded for Manaea, due to the weak haul the A's got for Manaea from San Diego. San Diego in effect replaced 3 years of Paddack for 1 year of Manaea and two years of Pagan for 1 year of Rogers.  Interesting.

Sure, but San Diego has eyes on winning a World Series this year. If the Twins are in that position in 2023, than similar deals would make more sense for them.