Twins/Padres Finalize Deal: Rogers, Rooker to San Diego for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan

[clone52]

Another potential benefit of this trade.  $3M savings on payroll.  We don't know the exact limit the owners have given the front office, but that does free up money for the front office to play with in other deals. 

[Game7-91]

32 minutes ago, sdtwins37 said:

If you look at Pagans year with the Rays in 2019 he pitched 70 innings, had 96 strike outs and had 20 saves. 2.31 era.  He thrived in the closer role. Home run numbers a bit high, but I think the FO views this kid as a late inning guy.

Interesting, hoping they can squeeze some juice from the fruit. Or convert Padduck, Paddock, Paddeck, Paddlick, Paddoch,...whats his name.....to BP.....whatever, it matters little, this pitching staff is built for entertainment and not in a good way.

A Correa/Rogers package in July would have been interesting. Cie la vie.

[Unwinder]

23 minutes ago, Dave Overlund said:

I agree with you, but to play devil's advocate, why sign Correa if the goal isn't to win the WS this year? That's why I am so confused about this offseason. 95% of their moves signal an intent to compete in the future, then they sign Correa. It's so odd. 

I think they're trying to slip into expanded playoffs, but also, I've decided that it's a good idea for rebuilding teams to use their open payroll to just sign a superstar for a year to give fans something fun to watch, if they can rope someone in.

[Riverbrian]

I removed designated closer from my list of roster needs along time ago. I get more concerned when a pitcher like Ron Davis or Alex Colome gets the designation and keeps getting the ball.  

The go-to guy will reveal himself over the course of the season and we will need that go-to guy at any point during a game not just the 9th. 

It will be interesting to watch Baldelli work this staff with Gray, Archer, Bundy, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Winder all coming North.

I have a feeling that the fan with traditional viewpoints will have a hard time adjusting to it. My head won't bang against that wall. 

 

[wsnydes]

55 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't like losing Rogers, but I don't mind this deal. Paddack's peripherals have been quite good and if he's able to get his ERA to more closely align with those peripherals this is a steal for the Twins. This likely puts more pressure on Alcala, Thielbar, and Duran to become big pen arms, but if you can trade a reliever with 1 year of control for a starter with 3 you should probably do that.

Or even one, or more, of the starting prospects to jump into the big leagues to try to stabilize the pen.

I don't mind this move either, but I think this probably forces even more creativity in pitcher use over the course of this season.  I don't know that I like that, but I don't necessarily dislike it either.  I have to see how it evolves.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Projected by who?

By several of the systems that use data, which I know you don't care about....and, as I've pointed out, they were top 10 after July 4 of last year. Did Rogers pitch in August or September? 

[GoMNTwins]

Paddack is the Rashaad Penny of baseball. 

[chaderic20]

So we traded one year of a good reliever (coming off a season-ending injury) and a guy we were about to shove out the door for nothing, for two years of a decent reliever and three years of a currently struggling, but potential mid-rotation starter. I'll take that.

[jmlease1]

Just now, USAFChief said:

Top 10 by fWAR, which is worthless. 

19th by ERA.

The Twins did not have a top 10 pen last year.

Second half of the season the twins 'pen was quality. Overall, it wasn't great because it got off to a horrendous start. but it also shows just how fungible most relief pitchers are. Look at Pagan: in 2017 he was excellent. in 2018, he was below average. In 2019, he was lights out. In 2020, he was below average. In 2021, he was poor. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him turn in an ERA+ of 120-140 this season.

Colome was great right up until he wasn't for half a season, where he suddenly turned into Ron freakin' Davis on us. And then he was fine again. It's why a lot of us agree with the philosophy of not spending big money on relievers. Paying big money will "win" you off-season awards and the prediction game, but won't necessarily build you a good bullpen.

I liked Rogers, and I was happy we brought him back. But I'm ok with dealing relievers for starters. And I'm not too worried about having enough lefties in the bullpen: Thielbar is quality, Coloumbe was quality last year, and Moran is coming up through the system.

If Paddack bounces back, this is a great trade for the twins. If he doesn't, it was a reasonable risk. the thought process is sound here, IMHO. (Look, if every bet the front office makes goes wrong, then you have to reassess, even if the thought process was sound, but so far that's not really the case. YMMV on whether they've had enough of those bets go right, but if you're going to make the assessment, then make sure you count all of them, not just the ones you hated)

[jorgenswest]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

By several of the systems that use data, which I know you don't care about....and, as I've pointed out, they were top 10 after July 4 of last year. Did Rogers pitch in August or September? 

I care about data. I don’t see a reliever projected to have an ERA under 4 on this roster. Read the write up that goes with their rank at number 8. It sums up well my concern.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-1-15/

 

[USAFChief]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

.and, as I've pointed out, they were top 10 after July 4 of last year. 

By fWAR. 

 

Which is a terrible way to measure pitchers, and a worthless way to measure relievers. 

 

You watched the Twins last year. Were they better than 20 other bullpens??

 

[jmlease1]

7 minutes ago, Game7-91 said:

 

A Correa/Rogers package in July would have been interesting. Cie la vie.

Gods above, thinking about a potential deadline deal before game 1 of the season? That's incredibly pessimistic about a team that's got a quality lineup and a load of young talent in the system. Do you want the Vikings to punt on first down too?

[lukeduke1980]

Are they confident in Paddack's elbow?  I thought I  read that last year he had a slight UCL tear and treated it with stem cells.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

By fWAR. 

 

Which is a terrible way to measure pitchers, and a worthless way to measure relievers. 

 

You watched the Twins last year. Were they better than 20 other bullpens??

 

After they got rid of their awful closer? I didn't watch enough other teams to say if they were about median or not......but I'm guessing everyone's brain is thinking about the whole year, not after they got rid of the man who they should not have signed. Much like Happ and Shoemaker leaving making the team better....

This team was around .500 after the disastrous start to the year, and people are really struggling to remember that given how badly the year went overall.

[Deadfan]

It amazes me how some of y'all around here just cant ever be happy......All ive heard is pissing and moaning that the twins didnt target pitching this offseason, Well, weve added Gray, Bundy, Archer and now Paddack to add to Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober (also dont forget kenta Maeda still exists!). I foresee archer or bundy gets bumped to the pen. 

 

Like seriously, what did you actually want? The twins to go hold a gun to max scherzers head and force him to pitch here? We got pitching, and the pipe line is gonna start showing its dividends. 

 

Oh yeah and we also have the best SS and CF on planet earth right now.....

 

Still not happy?

 

...try being a Cleveland fan. 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Gods above, thinking about a potential deadline deal before game 1 of the season? That's incredibly pessimistic about a team that's got a quality lineup and a load of young talent in the system. Do you want the Vikings to punt on first down too?

Not to mention it's a terrible idea to package your best trade chips.

[gunnarthor]

I'm a bit lower on Rogers than most people on TD so I was ok moving him. Rooker wasn't going to fit in here, good luck to both in SD. I don't think this trade moves the needle much but we'll see.  If they develop Paddack, great deal for the Twins. If they can't, we'll have a new FO soon enough.

[sthpstm]

17 minutes ago, clone52 said:

Another potential benefit of this trade.  $3M savings on payroll.  We don't know the exact limit the owners have given the front office, but that does free up money for the front office to play with in other deals. 

Oh good, someone pushing the “cheap Pohlads” agenda. 
Too bad the Twins are sending cash to the Padres.

[dex8425]

45 minutes ago, clone52 said:

If they can't win with this Pen, then Taylor Rogers wasn't going to be the savior that allowed them to win with this Pen.

And the bullpen was actually better in the second half last year, when Rogers was out, right?

[sdtwins37]

1 hour ago, sdtwins37 said:

If you look at Pagans year with the Rays in 2019 he pitched 70 innings, had 96 strike outs and had 20 saves. 2.31 era.  He thrived in the closer role. Home run numbers a bit high, but I think the FO views this kid as a late inning guy.

Let’s not forget this was the juiced ball year as well?

[nicksaviking]

23 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

They are paying Bundy $4 million this year and hold a team option for 2023. They are going to give him every possible chance to succeed, for better or worse.

4M is not going to keep the team from dumping Bundy. 

[Trov]

So I get why people are upset when you look at the traditional counting numbers this looks like a downgrade for the Twins.  I get a little confused when some commenters are saying we should have went after Manaea and give up middle of road prospects to get him for 1 year rental.  

However, if you look at the FIP of Paddack, last year was his best of his short career so far.  People should know that Padres was the league average defensive team, Twins last year was double the runs saved than Padres.  As long as our team can stay healthy we have two of the best defenders in all the league at the top defensive positions.  Meaning, if Paddack can pitch close to his FIP again and get some decent defense behind him, people will be changing their tune quickly on him.  

On the face, Pagan is a downgrade to Rogers.  However, not as big of a drop off as some think.  The writer says Rogers is coming off of best career year, but I would not agree with that.  His 2018 and 2019 years were much better.  By certain numbers he may be, but overall I would say no he is not.  

Pagan is a downgrade for sure, but no one is saying he will slip into the same role as Rogers.  I think people have inflated what Rogers has done recently.  He is not the same guy from 3 and 4 years ago.  He has shown he is a lefty specialist now.  He has shown he is not good on back to back days.  He has blown many saves, which we had him as a closer before, but he started blowing saves the last two years.  I liked Rogers, but if Paddack can pitch anywhere close to his potential this will be a huge steal for the Twins.

My guess is Twins think they can make some adjustments for him and get him straight.  It is an interesting trade that may pay off huge, but it is not like we gave up a ton.  Rodgers is not that amazing where we know when he comes in the game is over.  Yes, he was most likely best of what we had recently, but I do not mind the trade at all.

I trust the FO and coaching staff has spotted something in Paddock that they think they can fix his issues from last year and get the potential he showed when first broke into league.  Sometimes just a change in teams will fix a guy.

[DJL44]

It is strange to see the Twins sending money to the Padres.

I hope the PTBNL is one of the Padres college pitcher draft picks from last summer.

[Battle ur tail off]

Paddack is young still. He was a top 35 prospect in all of baseball coming up. Look at his minor league numbers, he was a stud.  He is better than anything we have in the minors. I like this trade. Hate losing Rogers, but if we weren't going to pay him after this season, then it was a good move. 

He should scoop up innings for 3 years in a 3-5 role. Hopefully by then, we will have established a better top of the rotation through trade or whatever.

 

 

[roger]

I don't know what to think of this trade.  And some of that is that I don't know what to think about the two guys joining the Twins.  Are they good?  Or not?  And more important, will they be good for the Twins this year and next?

Although I expect nothing is official, but is there a fifth piece to this trade and is it coming to the Twins?  If so, who?

I don't know what to expect from this year's bullpen, but I have always liked Rogers...a lot.  I will miss him and expect the Twins bullpen will also miss him.  On the other hand, this trade certainly makes the Twins starting rotation deeper.  When they signed Archer they went from five potential starters to six.  This gives them seven.  Yes there are other young prospects, but most/all of them aren't ready for the big leagues and won't be ready until at least mid-summer.

So I don't know what to expect, and the truth is none of us do.  It should be a bit comforting that the Padres manager last year is now a Twins coach and they should have had some inside knowledge of these two guys.  I hope?

 

[nicksaviking]

50 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

By fWAR. 

 

Which is a terrible way to measure pitchers, and a worthless way to measure relievers. 

 

You watched the Twins last year. Were they better than 20 other bullpens??

 

I don't quite share Mike's enthusiasm about the bullpen, but most years, there's only about three teams that like the bullpen they have.

Relievers tend to be unreliable by nature, even the good ones. Their success is always based on small sample sizes and if they were reliable, they'd all be starters. To me, it always seems like predicting how good your bullpen will be was about as accurate as an early 20th Century weatherman.

[jccracraft]

Maybe they plan one starter to go like 4-5 innings, then one of the others the rest of the game? Basically like a long reliever of the past. 5 days in between starts to throw 5 innings is silly.

[jorgenswest]

Prior to the Correa signing I was a strong advocate for using the lens of 2023 with every addition. Using that lens this is a very good deal. Control of Paddack for three years fits that lens well.

All good deals have a cost and the cost of this one is 2022. The projected performance of Rogers can not be replaced easily.

I think one myth about relievers is that they are unreliable. It is true that their yearly stat line varies much more than starters but that isn’t a change in talent level. It is due to the small sample and the stats we are viewing. ERA, FIP, xFIP all need a sample beyond that inning out of a reliever in a single season. WAR variations are based on that data and a sample size that is unreliable. It becomes even more unreliable when we start looking at single season splits.

 

[Mike Sixel]

29 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

By fWAR. 

 

Which is a terrible way to measure pitchers, and a worthless way to measure relievers. 

 

You watched the Twins last year. Were they better than 20 other bullpens??

 

After July 4:

3rd in win probability added

14 in strikeouts

10th in strikeout percentages

13th in win loss record

7th in saves

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't quite share Mike's enthusiasm about the bullpen, but most years, there's only about three teams that like the bullpen they have.

Relievers tend to be unreliable by nature, even the good ones. There success is always based on small sample sizes and if they were reliable, they'd all be starters. To me, it always seems like predicting how good your bullpen will be was about as accurate as an early 20th Century weatherman.

To be clear, I don't LOVE the RPs.....I just think people's minds are clouded by the first two months.....