The 2022 Twins Will Have a Flexible Pitching Staff (and That's a Good Thing)

[Matt Braun]

As of writing this article on April 5th, the year of our Lord 2022, the Twins bullpen is far from set. Some prominent names have established themselves, while other, darker horses rode a hot spring into the opening day roster. But the pitching staff generally is a name salad of “whos” and “whys;” players with little star power at the moment but who are still guys potentially capable of carrying a team. The Twins this year will be flexible, and that is a good thing.

Why go with a flexible pitching staff? There are two significant reasons. The first stems from the natural volatility of relievers, something in the DNA of the position curses them with inconsistency more unusual than any other position in baseball. We see relievers rise and fall yearly, with only a handful of genuinely elite talents remaining at the top of the heap for more than a year at a time. They’re about as consistent as Ohio or Pennsylvania in an election year. That creates a significant challenge for team-building.

Beyond occasionally being stuck with poor performances, the issue is the sunk-cost fallacy that comes with bringing in a free-agent reliever. The Twins know all about this. What do you do with a struggling reliever with a solid history of success? Alex Colomé was utterly dreadful in 2021, blowing saves in cartoonish fashion for three painful months before the sting of each loss numbed due to the team’s already poor record. If Colomé were some AAAA schlep, he would have been optioned before April ended, and a different arm would have had the chance to prove themselves. But Colomé didn’t have options, and the team owed him $5 million, so the Twins had to be as confident as humanly possible that Colomé was no longer worth the roster spot. The season was already a lost cause by that time, and Colomé remained on the team.

Ensuring that you can quickly rid yourself of a poor-performing reliever is a wise strategy.

The other main reason to have flexibility is rooted in pitching philosophy. For years, a pitcher was either a starter, an individual capable of pitching anywhere between five-to-nine innings every fifth day, or they were a reliever, an individual tasked with netting three outs on a moment's notice.

The system does not make much sense if one thinks about it. There’s a significant grey area between “incapable of pitching deep into games” and “can only be relied upon for three outs.” Indeed, some of these arms could go for two or three innings, right? One could combine pitchers like Voltron to make a better, more complete staff out of pitchers with potential drawbacks.

Fortunately, some more enlightened baseball philosophers have moved away from this rigid binary, and, in a move that harkens back to the pitching staffs of the 60s and 70s, labels like “starter” and “reliever” have merged into someone simply being an “out-getter.” A pitcher is no longer only good for one or five-to-nine innings; they are allowed to get as many outs as physically possible. A myriad of terms have grown into our shared baseball lexicon to describe this shift: “opener,” “piggy-backing,” uhhh, “two dogs and two cats.” While differing in their meaning, they all call back to the idea that pitchers differ in the duration of their effectiveness.

The Rays are a masterclass in this style of strategy. In what feels like the millionth year in a row, the team owned a top-10 pitching staff in baseball by fWAR, struck out a small army, and barely walked anyone despite losing ace Tyler Glasnow to Tommy John surgery. Four pitchers, Shane McClanahan, Rich Hill, Glasnow, and Shane Baz, appeared solely as a starter. The 11 other pitchers who made a start for them in 2021 also appeared out of the bullpen at some point in 2021.

Let’s take a look at their strategy in action. On July 28th, Michael Wacha pitched five solid innings before being followed by Drew Rasmussen, old friend Matt Wisler, Pete Fairbanks, and Andrew Kittredge. On August 12th, Rasmussen started the game and went four innings; he was followed by Collin McHugh, old friend J.T. Chargois, Louis Head, and Ryan Sheriff. Rasmussen both started and entered the game in the sixth inning in about a two-week period, and he netted significant innings in both roles. It’s a high-wire act for sure, a bad game or two could throw the entire staff into chaos, but a deft manager can properly tip-toe the line.

In practice for the Twins, we may see something like Chris Archer going four innings, Jhoan Duran following with three innings of his own, and then the usual suspects of Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers cleaning up the game, assuming all went well. This style of pitching management will be even more necessary at the beginning of the season; starters are not yet ready for their usual pitch counts, and games have not yet been shortened (but I wouldn’t put anything by Rob Manfred). Expanded rosters will help alleviate the pitching roster crunch.

As it stands, five relievers—Rogers, Duffey, Joe Smith, Jharel Cotton, and Danny Coulombe—are un-optionable (without the risk of losing them on waivers). The rest of the bullpen will be ushered into the continuous testing machinery to determine which arms can stay at the major league level. Think of it like the Hunger Games, but you’re sent to St. Paul instead of dying. Guys like Griffin Jax, Josh Winder, Cody Stashak, and Jovani Moran may or may not begin the season in the majors, but the team will certainly shuffle them in at some point in 2022. It may be for the best if you don’t get too attached to the names you see in the bullpen to begin the season.

How would you like to see the pitching staff work, especially in the season's first month. Leave a COMMENT and discuss below. 

 

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[stringer bell]

Flexibility is a good thing. That the Twins have several guys that they can option to AAA is key especially when they have to cut back to 13 pitchers after May 1. The unfortunate thing is that there are several candidates for promotion from AAA who would have to be added to the (already full) 40-man roster. While I wouldn't wish it on any particular player, disabling injuries happen and if they're severe enough, the player can end up on the 60-day IL opening room on the 40-man roster. I'm tracking transactions throughout baseball and Detroit just placed three players (two pitchers) on the 60-day IL and three more (two pitchers) on the shorter 10-day list. The Twins wouldn't have that much to do if they want to bring someone across the river from St. Paul, but candidates like Smeltzer and Cano would have to be added.

[Mike Sixel]

I've been begging the Twins to piggy back pitchers for years....unless you have 4 very good starters, you really need to piggy back to succeed. So, I'm hoping Archer and another are piggy backed.....and since I have zero faith in Bundy, him also. That also gives the younger pitchers MLB experience.....

[Riverbrian]

A little over 1400 innings are required of an entire pitching staff to get through the season. How those 1400 innings are allocated to each member of the pitching staff does not have to be (absolutely shouldn't be) locked into some static formula created a long time ago.   

The Rays wisely came to the conclusion that a starting pitcher doesn't have to start the game and they came to the conclusion that a starting pitcher can be reduced to 3 innings per appearance. The Rays also realized that a reliever doesn't have to have dedicated short work roles, they realized that relievers can be stretched to 3 innings of work if needed as they put together the best combination of arms to cover the real estate of 1400 innings necessary.   

The Rays know that any combination of utilization is possible if you just break the shackles of the traditional formula created by people decades ago.

The starter/closer/set-up designation isn't that necessary. Just get outs and cover those 1400 with whatever combination gives you the best chance of getting outs every single inning.

Forcing yourself into a traditional 5 man rotation leads to forcing a guy who isn't doing that good to eat innings just to keep the rotation structure. It leads to Matt Shoemaker getting 90 innings while Taylor Rogers throws 15. 

All you gotta do is free yourself of thinking that the traditional way is the only way. IT ISN'T the only way.  

 

 

 

[RJA]

I agree flexibility and depth are important for a rotation.  I believe something like 449 different pitchers started games in the majors last year.  It is a much different game than it was even 30 years ago.  Every team seems to sign a number of starting pitchers and relievers to minor league contracts just in case they are needed and in the hope that they find a gem.  I think we will see a number of the young guys at Target Field this summer.  It should be fun.

[Muppet]

This type of thinking is long overdue. A dozen or more years ago we started obsessing about OBP, OPS, and such metrics resulting in drastic changes in the way lineups were constructed. It is time that pitching staffs and bullpens are blown up and logically reconfigured. Then the smart teams will better be able to beat the rich teams. 

[USNMCPO]

I agree with your premise Matt, but the question is: Will our favorite team employ such a strategy? I hope so.

[Doctor Gast]

Times are a changing, we need to get out of the old mindset especially if you're a Twins fan. With young and inexperienced arms, less than strong arms, a recouperating arm together with a short ST, flexibility is the key to success. In the beginning of the season IMO all SPs should be under some form piggy-backing therefore a large rotating long relief corp is a must. Gray should gradually graduate into a 5+ inning role but the rest IMO will take quite a bit longer.

I think that there will be some flexibility in role like some long relief could do some spot starting (Smeltzer, Winder) or some long relief could be used in high leverage situations (Alcala, Duran). The constant rotating of hot hands from AAA will give our prospects their much needed exposure to MLB w/o putting too much pressure on them

With all this attention on velo and arm action. Our focus shouldn't be any longer to maximize the # of innings from a few arms but to maximize the quality of innings from a large # of pitchers. Maximizing the # innings from each pitcher you'll get some  quality innings, some heh innings and some terrible innings and a bunch of shot arms towards the end of the season

[jorgenswest]

Talent trumps flexibility.

Flexibility can help optimize existing talent. I hope the talent is there. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Times are a changing, we need to get out of the old mindset especially if you're a Twins fan. With young and inexperienced arms, less than strong arms, a recouperating arm together with a short ST, flexibility is the key to success. In the beginning of the season IMO all SPs should be under some form piggy-backing therefore a large rotating long relief corp is a must. Gray should gradually graduate into a 5+ inning role but the rest IMO will take quite a bit longer.

I think that there will be some flexibility in role like some long relief could do some spot starting (Smeltzer, Winder) or some long relief could be used in high leverage situations (Alcala, Duran). The constant rotating of hot hands from AAA will give our prospects their much needed exposure to MLB w/o putting too much pressure on them

With all this attention on velo and arm action. Our focus shouldn't be any longer to maximize the # of innings from a few arms but to maximize the quality of innings from a large # of pitchers. Maximizing the # innings from each pitcher you'll get some  quality innings, some heh innings and some terrible innings and a bunch of shot arms towards the end of the season

You may be right (even though quite a few pitchers on other teams were throwing 5 innings already in spring training) and I think you are correct with some of the young guys, but if this is the future of baseball with the shifts and what not, MLB should be very concerned about keeping people interested in watching the game. People and fans love stars and if they are removing half that equation, well....

[blindeke]

Great article. Yes please. Let's do whatever the Rays are doing! I don't care what it is.

[Mike Sixel]

46 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

You may be right (even though quite a few pitchers on other teams were throwing 5 innings already in spring training) and I think you are correct with some of the young guys, but if this is the future of baseball with the shifts and what not, MLB should be very concerned about keeping people interested in watching the game. People and fans love stars and if they are removing half that equation, well....

Star pitchers will still pitch a lot....but MOST teams don't have even 1 star pitcher, let alone 4 or 5......

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Talent trumps flexibility.

Flexibility can help optimize existing talent. I hope the talent is there. 

Agreed... No need to be flexible if you can just rely upon a constant. 

However... the constant just isn't there. 

 

A total of 84 Pitchers eclipsed 100 Innings last year while producing a sub 4.50 ERA.  

That averages less then 3 per team if the bar is set as low as 100 innings and 100 innings isn't enough. 

 

Just 33 pitchers under 4.50 if the bar is 162 innings (qualification for an ERA title). 

[KirbyDome89]

If we're just talking about the bullpen, I agree, getting young arms innings + having options is the way to go. 

I can get behind piggy backing your bottom 2, maybe 3 arms, but I don't know if you can get through a whole season with nearly an entire rotation that will max out at 5 IP. I could be way off. Gray is the "workhorse," of sorts, but with his slow start, what's he going to end up at? 160 IP? They can run Archer and Bundy into the ground, but those are the guys you want to piggy back, and if they're chewing up innings something has probably gone wrong.

Once expanded rosters are gone and you start factoring in the 40 man crunch, innings/rest restrictions, injuries, schedule crunches/extra innings, poor performances/reduced availability/trust in leverage situations, ect. it just seems like A LOT to juggle over the course of a year without having a couple guys, or at least one, who can go out and ease some of the innings burden every 4th or 5th day. Maybe my stodgy old man side is just out in full force today....

[Linus]

Run ‘‘em out there any way you want but it still boils down to how many good pitchers you have. You can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear. 

[mikelink45]

Which is better - flexibility or quality?  I am high on the quality scale!  I like a Verlander who takes the game into his own hands instead of three or four okay pitchers all hoping to be good that day.  Baseball is slipping into my rear view mirror with the changes it is making and I do not want to lose it. 

[h2oface]

Kind of ironic that of the relief pitchers that made the team, the one with the worst spring is the article picture. 

The only reason you need to be flexible, is because you don't have the horses to pitch deep into the game. I'm glad that they have been practicing yoga, though. Flexibilty is a good thing, in general.

I hope they get to play on Friday. 

[Whitey333]

I believe you need good starting pitching as a solid foundation.  I guess I'm a neanderthal in that I liked the 3-4 starting pitchers carrying a team.  As a fan going to a game the starting pitching matchups helped determine if I would attend.  Using the Rays as an example is more of an example of their great scouting and coaching and out of necessity.  Winning 100 games is great but very few people in Tampa seem to care.  MLB has become nearly unwatchable the past several years.  With all the silly rules and shifts and pitching strategies it looks like a giant video game on TV.  Yet for all these changes, baseball continues to fall behind the other sports in terms of attendance and tv ratings.  Bring back the fun older days of baseball where starting pitchers went 7 or 8 innings.  Now days pitchers get accolades if they make it through 5.  Starting pitchers are getting paid more and more for pitching less and less. And what about the relievers who pitch several times a week?  They are valued more and more and are grossly underpaid for the most part.  I'm one that hopes they ban the over shift, does not institute a pitch clock, drops the ghost runner rule, and never adds electronic devices to call balls and strikes. 

[twinfan]

With the way teams are managed today, you need 12 pitchers around to survive a week of games. However, I would like to see a middle reliever go more than just 1 inning if he throws 18 or less pitches and doesn't get hit hard. Having 3-4 pitchers warm up then come in for just 1 inning per game can wear out a staff by late summer. Of course, managers don't let starters go much more than 5 innings anymore or pitch on consecutive days - except for a closer. Speaking of closers, will Dhuran now become our go to guy? Maybe Joe Smith to start and let Dhuran get his feet wet.