How Long of Leash Will Chris Archer Get?

[Cody Christie]

Last season, fans grew frustrated as veterans J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker struggled through multiple turns in the rotation. Will Chris Archer get the same kind of leash in 2022?

Entering the 2021 season, the Twins had a clear plan for the club’s rotation. Kenta Maeda and José Berríos sat at the top of the rotation and were coming off tremendous 2020 seasons. J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker signed later in the offseason to add a veteran presence to the back of the rotation. On paper, the moves seemed justifiable as the team was coming off of back-to-back AL Central titles, and the front office had earned a level of trust from the fanbase. 

Unfortunately, not much went right for the 2021 Twins. Happ started 19 games in Minnesota and posted a 6.77 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP before being traded at the deadline. Shoemaker’s results were even worse as he accumulated an 8.06 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP while allowing 15 home runs in 16 appearances. He ended up being demoted to Triple-A and eventually released. With few other starting options, the Twins were forced to keep trotting out both of these pitchers even while each was struggling. It was tough to watch in a disappointing season. 

Flashforward to 2022, and Twins fans may have trepidation when it comes to any veteran pitcher. However, Chris Archer doesn’t fit the same mold as Happ and Shoemaker did in 2021. Last year’s veteran duo needed to be good for the team to have a chance to contend, and that didn’t happen. With no minor league season in 2020, many of Minnesota’s top pitching prospects weren’t going to be ready to contribute. That isn’t the case this season, as Archer may feel the team’s top prospects breathing down his neck from St. Paul. 

Before signing Archer, Josh Winder had the upper hand to win the final rotation spot. Because of the shorter spring training, many teams must be creative in how they handle their pitching staff early in the season. Randy Dobnak’s injury forced the team to reevaluate the roster, and Archer’s signing is a result of the team needing more starting pitching depth. 

Archer’s deal is very incentive-based, so the Twins don’t have as much of a financial commitment as they did with Happ’s $8 million deal last winter. There were plenty of rumors of the Twins looking to trade for other starting pitching, but those rumors didn’t come to fruition. Minnesota’s investment in Archer looks like a fallback option with the potential for there to still be some upside. Archer has been a great pitcher in the past, but there is a reason he was available this late in the winter.

From Minnesota’s perspective, there are a few different scenarios that play out in the team’s favor. The first scenario is that Archer pitches well enough to stay in the rotation for the first couple of months of the season. That gets the team into June, when more of the team’s pitching prospects may be ready to contribute. At that time, the team can reevaluate what role Archer plays moving forward. Maybe Archer will have a renaissance season and surprise the baseball world, but his recent track record doesn’t point to this being a reality. 

Another scenario can play out where Minnesota’s young pitching is throwing so well in the minors that they push Archer out of the rotation. Jordan Balazovic, Cole Sands, and Drew Strotman all project to be in St. Paul’s starting rotation, with Winder pitching out of the bullpen at the MLB level. The front office has tremendous faith in their young pitching, and this is the year the pipeline may pay dividends at the big-league level. 

As a backup plan, Archer has some upside, and he certainly has something to prove. Hopefully, Minnesota learned something from last year’s debacle with veteran starting pitching. This may make Archer’s time in Minnesota a little shorter, but that can be forgotten if the team gets back to its winning ways.

How long do you think Archer pitches in the Twins rotation? Should the team have a short leash with him? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[mikelink45]

Thanks for asking the question.  Remember we also have Gant, Albers, Bailey, Perez in addition to Happ and Shoemaker since 2019.  I do not have much faith in Archer and Bundy.  They were available cheap because they have been going downhill.  It would be great to have one of them rebound to a good starter, but I wanted Winder as the fifth starter and still do.  Whichever reclamation project falters should be dropped immediately, but I am not sure that history tells us that they will. 

[4twinsJA]

I think Twins will be patient with Archer, limiting him to 3-4 IP per start for first 3-4 starts. Maybe piggy backing Winder on Archer's starts. I agree the plan may be for prospects to work their way onto roster as season progresses. There will be injuries, should be plenty of opportunities for the prospects.

[Linus]

We’ll likely find out. Odds are one of Archer or Bundy is going to stink. Unlike last year we will have someone with potential ready to take that spot. 

[jorgenswest]

Last year all of the replacement options were injured so there was nothing at the other end of the leash. Assuming the options are healthy and finding success I don’t think the stay will be long. In 2012 Jason Marquis saw 160 batters over 7 starts before they let him go. While small sample wise it would be the length of my leash.

Marquis went signed with San Diego and was reasonably successful posting a 4.04 ERA over 15 starts and then gave them another 20 starts the next year with a 4.05 ERA. They could have used that performance but I still think the made the right decision to give that short leash.

[heresthething]

One or both of them will fail along with a problem or two for the rest of the starting staff.  Better hope the FO acts on Bundy and/or Archer quickly and that those arms in AAA can bring something to the table or we are in trouble.

[rv78]

Which one of the five starters is is a sure thing? ZERO. None are Maeda or Berrios. Gray is the closest and he is 5 years removed from a decent season. Don't forget to add him to the list of possible disappointments along with Bundy and Archer. That leaves Ryan and Ober who have no proven track record. It is very possible that none of the five will be what the Twins need or are hoping for.

[dex8425]

12 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Which one of the five starters is is a sure thing? ZERO. None are Maeda or Berrios. Gray is the closest and he is 5 years removed from a decent season. Don't forget to add him to the list of possible disappointments along with Bundy and Archer. That leaves Ryan and Ober who have no proven track record. It is very possible that none of the five will be what the Twins need or are hoping for.

Gray was very good last year and every year with the Reds, actually. He actually had more WAR than Berrios in 2021. 

[chpettit19]

The expanded rosters in April may be a natural timeline for a really poor performance from any of the pitchers. Anyone who has a terrible April should be worried about being on the chopping block come May 1 when rosters go back down to 26. If nobody has a bad April we'll all be very happy and 2 guys with options will be very sad they have to go over to St Paul.

[nicksaviking]

Well I'd give Archer a longer leash than Bundy since you'd think a guy coming back from inactiveness may need more time to get into the grove than a guy who's issue is that he can barely hit 90MPH any longer.

But I don't give either a very long leash. Young guys get long leashes, aging vets get short leashes. It's never worked that way around here, but it should.

[Trov]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Which one of the five starters is is a sure thing? ZERO. None are Maeda or Berrios. Gray is the closest and he is 5 years removed from a decent season. Don't forget to add him to the list of possible disappointments along with Bundy and Archer. That leaves Ryan and Ober who have no proven track record. It is very possible that none of the five will be what the Twins need or are hoping for.

Gray has had better numbers than Berrios each of the last 3 seasons.  Last year was close to each other.  In 2019, Gray got Cy young votes, had a WAR of 5.9, by WAR it was the best of his career, but guess that was not a decent season.  Gray is just as much of a sure thing as Berrios would be, unless you are saying Gray is aging and will fall off, but to argue his recent seasons are not good just does not hold water. 

[Trov]

As long as the pitching prospects are healthy and available I would bet the leash is short for both Archer and Bundy.  Last year, the leash was longer I feel because those two starters were not the only problem.  Our pen was blowing lead after lead, we could not win a game in extras, and nothing was going right, so just bring in young starters was not going to fix the problems. 

[Brandon]

I think this rotation is set up to have stacked days.  Bundy and Archer should be able to get through 3-5 innings.  Jax or Winder in the pen can be counted on for 2-3 innings.  now we are in the 7th or 8th innings and we can go to the regular bullpen guys to finish out the game.  I think if we can get games like that out of them we will be fine.  just we need to make sure that we are taking them out at the right time.  Also Ober and Gray don't go deep into games all that often either.  I hope this year we see more 5-6 innings from Ober then the 4-5 innings from last year.  I think Ryan has the chance to be a solid 5-6 inning guy.  

[Brandon]

2 minutes ago, Trov said:

As long as the pitching prospects are healthy and available I would bet the leash is short for both Archer and Bundy.  Last year, the leash was longer I feel because those two starters were not the only problem.  Our pen was blowing lead after lead, we could not win a game in extras, and nothing was going right, so just bring in young starters was not going to fix the problems. 

The leash was longer because the next 4 ranked options were all injured at the time we wanted to replace Shoemaker.  These guys were all hurt Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Duran and there was no one else that would be considered ready at that time.  

[Doctor Gast]

How long do you think Archer pitches in the Twins rotation? If the Twins are smart, for many years,

Archer is nothing like Happ or Shoemaker, I hated those signings, Archer has tremendous upside Happ & Shoemaker has very low ceiling and floor. The Twins should be very patient with him, although Archer had been a work horse, he hasn't pitched much in the last 2 1/2 yrs. He was tired after his 50 pitches in a live game, it'll take time to get his endurance back up. His shoulder seems fine, so once his endurance is up and he's strong, he'll pay hugh dividends for the Twins.

I haven't been so excited about a Twins pitcher since Johan Santana. Archer had negative development in PIT but now has that positive development from Wes Johnson is a game changer. IDK in how quick they can stretch him out to 5 innings but they should take him slow so they don't over extend him where he hurts himself. With this piggy-back system there is no rush. I'd like to see a bigger long relief corp to bring up our pitching prospects as soon as possible and keep the burden off the rotation & short relief, Here we don't have a need to throw these prospect right into the rotation. 

I had no hope in Happ or Shoemaker. I have much more doubt about Bundy than Archer but I try to be positive about his possibity under this strong relief corp. Unnecessary negativity is not prudent.

[KFEY93]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Which one of the five starters is is a sure thing? ZERO. None are Maeda or Berrios. Gray is the closest and he is 5 years removed from a decent season. Don't forget to add him to the list of possible disappointments along with Bundy and Archer. That leaves Ryan and Ober who have no proven track record. It is very possible that none of the five will be what the Twins need or are hoping for.

Berrios is so overrated by the general Twins fans populace its astounding. Berrios was reliable as far as staying healthy and pitching innings but he was never a sure fire thing to have a good game or to give you the chance at winning every game he pitched. He's a number two or three guy on any other contending teams roster so setting him as the bar to compare to is beating a dead horse imo. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm guessing here, but I think Archer goes short starts, with another "starter" piggy backing him. That likely means he's got a decent leash, as I hope he can get through an order once.......

I'd bet Bundy is gone before Archer, but that's a different topic.

[nicksaviking]

Anyone know what Archer's velocity was in his one start? Getting back to typical velocity in short order seems to be a pretty good tell tale sign if a guy is returning to form.

In his handful of starts last year he was only sitting at about 92MPH, down from his typical 94-95. Just like with Bundy, if he doesn't get that velocity back, I don't like his chances.

But at least with Archer, if it doesn't work out in the rotation, I'd be more than happy to give his +slider a shot in the pen.

[terrydactyls]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm guessing here, but I think Archer goes short starts, with another "starter" piggy backing him. That likely means he's got a decent leash, as I hope he can get through an order once.......

I'd bet Bundy is gone before Archer, but that's a different topic.

Now that's a great idea.  Let's start two Twins Daily Pool: one for Bundy and one for Archer.  Anyone who wishes to enter the pool has to guess for both players they day on which they get DFA'd.  Closest to the actual date wins.

[se7799]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Which one of the five starters is is a sure thing? ZERO. None are Maeda or Berrios. Gray is the closest and he is 5 years removed from a decent season. Don't forget to add him to the list of possible disappointments along with Bundy and Archer. That leaves Ryan and Ober who have no proven track record. It is very possible that none of the five will be what the Twins need or are hoping for.

How or what are you looking at when you say Gray hasn't had a decent season for 5 years.

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Anyone know what Archer's velocity was in his one start? Getting back to typical velocity in short order seems to be a pretty good tell tale sign if a guy is returning to form.

In his handful of starts last year he was only sitting at about 92MPH, down from his typical 94-95. Just like with Bundy, if he doesn't get that velocity back, I don't like his chances.

But at least with Archer, if it doesn't work out in the rotation, I'd be more than happy to give his +slider a shot in the pen.

Archer topped out at 95.2 in his first appearance.

[nicksaviking]

That's excellent. Leash growing by the minute.

[PopRiveter]

I don't get the general dismissal of Archer. I see a pitcher who has been not just good, but excellent when healthy. He's young enough to still get strong after an from injury, he was trending very well post surgery and is now and far enough removed to start firing on all cylinders again. 

I think he's got too much upside, is too young, and has been too effective to compare to a 38 year old J.A. Happ, or either Shoemaker or Bundy (who'd been both been solid-but-unspectacular at their very best.)

I see his acquisition more like when the Twins signed Pineda, except we don't have to wait through a rehab year. He should  be good to go out of the gate. 

He might prove me wrong, but I think he'll more likely prove the skeptics wrong.

Bundy's leash should be MUCH shorter. These are not comparable pitchers.

[nicksaviking]

I think most of the discomfort with Archer stems from the TOS surgery. It just seems to have a really low record of successful recovery.

I'm willing to give him a test drive though.

[tony&rodney]

Archer has better stuff and looked pretty comfortable/strong in his appearance recently. Bundy is still "finding" his pitches but has some experience. The two are not really comparable. The key difference this year is we hope there are healthy bodies to help out when needed. Winder has looked good and Smeltzer is a call away. I'm trending towards the positive view of the Twins as the season gets close and my desire for warmer weather and disdain for snow/sleet, ice and cold grows.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Now that's a great idea.  Let's start two Twins Daily Pool: one for Bundy and one for Archer.  Anyone who wishes to enter the pool has to guess for both players they day on which they get DFA'd.  Closest to the actual date wins.

I worry about both of them for many reasons

I will be pulling for them will all might. Hope they both have sub 3's this year. 

 

[roger]

Can we wish for one to be 90% of what he was at his best and the other on a short leash and gone by late May with one of the young guns replacing him?  I sure would be pleased should that be the outcome.  If I had to guess, my money would be on Archer being the keeper.

[Unwinder]

I have basically stopped worrying about Archer, I feel less apprehensive about him than I would have felt about another year of Pineda.

[wsnydes]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm guessing here, but I think Archer goes short starts, with another "starter" piggy backing him. That likely means he's got a decent leash, as I hope he can get through an order once.......

I'd bet Bundy is gone before Archer, but that's a different topic.

I think he has a pretty decent chance to be pretty effective in that setup as well.  

[dex8425]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

How long do you think Archer pitches in the Twins rotation? If the Twins are smart, for many years,

ns.

I haven't been so excited about a Twins pitcher since Johan Santana. Archer had negative development in PIT but now has that positive development from Wes Johnson is a game changer. IDK in how quick they can stretch him out to 5 innings but they should take him slow so they don't over extend him where he hurts himself.

Did you realize that Archer pitched in Tampa last year? He barely pitched because of injury. When he did pitch, he wasn't very good. I don't think he'll suddenly become 2015 Chris Archer again. But really all we need from him this year is 120+ innings with an ERA somewhere in the 4's and I don't think that's too much of an ask. His stuff looks good.